2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

Yurt2

schmittel wrote: »

Eg there are undoubtedly properties that are not on the market for rent because people think that post income tax return is not worth it.

This is actually the most relevant post in context of the exchange between you and I:

We also know of people (or at least I do) of many people who have a buy-to-let that is mortgage free and has been for years and are happy to sit on it for the capital appreciation, they're a little bit older and don't want 'the hassle' of letting it out - and once they hit retirement they plan to pull the trigger to sell. Let's not be fooled that it's merely tax treatment of rental income that drives behavior. The tax treatment of rental income hasn't changed in donkeys of years as far as I'm aware and everybody knew the game they were getting into.

hometruths

Yurt! wrote: »

We also know of people (or at least I do) of many people who have a buy-to-let that is mortgage free and has been for years and are happy to sit on it for the capital appreciation, they're a little bit older and don't want 'the hassle' of letting it out - and once they hit retirement they plan to pull the trigger to sell. Let's not be fooled that it's merely tax treatment of rental income that drives behavior. The tax treatment of rental income hasn't changed in donkeys of years as far as I'm aware and everybody knew the game they were getting into.

No I don’t think it is just income tax, that’s my point - I was covering all bases.

These properties are not on market because of income tax, CGT, CAT, fair deal, arrears, interest rates etc etc i.e one reason or another all of which is covered by the current tax and legislative framework.

The actual point Cyrus took issue with is I said current buyers and sellers consider future changes in tax and legislation. He seems to think they don’t which is completely daft. IMO

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

No I don’t think it is just income tax, that’s my point - I was covering all bases.

These properties are not on market because of income tax, CGT, CAT, fair deal, arrears, interest rates etc etc i.e one reason or another all of which is covered by the current tax and legislative framework.

The actual point Cyrus took issue with is I said current buyers and sellers consider future changes in tax and legislation. He seems to think they don’t which is completely daft. IMO

What I actually took issue with was you projecting way beyond 2021 inferring that you were certain that there would be changes that would bring all of these vacant properties to market solving the supply issue .

And it couldn’t have been to income tax as that hasn’t changed materially in some time.

Which is completely daft IMO

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Hmm. I have 600 posts and you have 14000 posts. I am impressed with your dedication.

Anyway, let's stay on topic and talk about property.

And yet you are ahead of me on posts per day aren’t you. I am also impressed with your dedication in your short time as a member.

Nice of you to want to keep it on topic after veering wildly off topic to try and illicit a reaction .

hometruths

Nope. This is what you posted.

Cyrus wrote: »

So what do you think datadude for example is thinking about the future legislative and tax framework with regard to his decision to buy a family home ?

And I replied:

schmittel wrote: »

He's reduced his max budget according to his post.

At which point you started telling me what I meant:

Cyrus wrote: »

Making an allowance for a change in income tax rates but we both know that’s not what you meant. And I’d class him as a relatively sophisticated buyer.

And I never mentioned anything about vacant properties specifically.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Nope. This is what you posted.



And I replied:



At which point you started telling me what I meant:



And I never mentioned anything about vacant properties specifically.

And yet he inferred the same from your posts as I did funny that.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

And yet he inferred the same from your posts as I did funny that.

:rolleyes:

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

There are hundreds of thousands of residential properties that are not "part of the current supply for one reason or another".

But they do exist. At some stage they will become part of the current supply for one reason or another.

And when that happens, you will have your oversupply.

Just so I’m clear then you aren’t including vacant properties in the above, asking for a friend .

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

:rolleyes:

If the wind changes your face will be stuck like that

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Just so I’m clear then you aren’t including vacant properties in the above, asking for a friend .

I’m including vacant properties as well as many others.

Pelezico

Cyrus wrote: »

And yet he inferred the same from your posts as I did funny that.

Cyrus...go to bed for goodness sake. This thread will be here tomorrow. For you. We promise to keep it going for you.

My advice to all younger parents is to spend some quality time with your families. Life is short.

Property discussion is pretty peripheral.

Cyrus

Pelezico wrote: »

Cyrus...go to bed for goodness sake. This thread will be here tomorrow. For you. We promise to keep it going for you.

My advice to all younger parents is to spend some quality time with your families. Life is short.

Property discussion is pretty peripheral.

Thanks for your concern old timer best hit the hay yourself , always take your own advice

I wish there was more property discussion I enjoy that , it’s doomsday fetishes that leave me cold.

Graham

Mod Note

Pelezico, Cyrus, knock it off.

thefridge2006

Yellen signals it’s ‘game on’ for global corporate tax reform

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/yellen-signals-it-s-game-on-for-global-corporate-tax-reform-1.4496154

Global rules on taxing tech firms move closer as US drops Trump-era objection

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/global-rules-on-taxing-tech-firms-move-closer-as-us-drops-trump-era-objection-1.4496396

One of the several canaries in a coal mine. We must have an aviary of canaries at this stage

Interesting from Ibec chief economist Gerard Brady when he said that the announcement by the Biden administration is “very meaningful for the prospects of agreement by July”. But he cautioned that an OECD agreement would prove a competitiveness challenge to the Republic’s business model. “We will need to look to invest in other competitiveness levers such as education, research and development, and critical infrastructure.”

Critical infrastructure ..... lol, well that's us fu£ked so

Yurt2

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Yellen signals it’s ‘game on’ for global corporate tax reform

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/yellen-signals-it-s-game-on-for-global-corporate-tax-reform-1.4496154

Global rules on taxing tech firms move closer as US drops Trump-era objection

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/global-rules-on-taxing-tech-firms-move-closer-as-us-drops-trump-era-objection-1.4496396

One of the several canaries in a coal mine. We must have an aviary of canaries at this stage

Interesting from Ibec chief economist Gerard Brady when he said that the announcement by the Biden administration is “very meaningful for the prospects of agreement by July”. But he cautioned that an OECD agreement would prove a competitiveness challenge to the Republic’s business model. “We will need to look to invest in other competitiveness levers such as education, research and development, and critical infrastructure.”

Critical infrastructure ..... lol, well that's us fu£ked so

This day was always going to arrive. You'd hope that the boffins in the civil service and state agencies have a *break glass for alternative economic model* ready to go wouldn't you?

Twas a good run lads.

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

The one thing I’ll say is if you have an affinity already with dalkey you won’t regret moving there , certain places are overrated but not glasthule or dalkey and likewise for parts of glenageary Killiney and dun laoghaire .

This house caught my eye a while back, and no work to do, it sold quickly .

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/44-york-road-dun-laoghaire-co-dublin-a96p928/4472776

Incredible house. I was trying to do a whip round at Christmas dinner last year to get us the extra money we’d need for it! That said, I heard from a couple of people who live in Dun Laoghaire that York Road wouldn’t be considered a truly ‘prime location’.

Hasn’t hit the PPR yet but, as you say, it sold very quickly which means it probably went well in excess of the €1.6m asking.

Cyrus

DataDude wrote: »

Incredible house. I was trying to do a whip round at Christmas dinner last year to get us the extra money we’d need for it! That said, I heard from a couple of people who live in Dun Laoghaire that York Road wouldn’t be considered a truly ‘prime location’.

Hasn’t hit the PPR yet but, as you say, it sold very quickly which means it probably went well in excess of the €1.6m asking.

No York road isn’t prime but it’s not bad, the combination of the external aesthetic of the house and the apparent quality of the fit out do make it very appealing though I have to say ! Good luck to whoever bought it.

A few other things came to mind last night so if it’s ok I’ll pm you Monday with a few other considerations that may not be at the forefront of your mind now but will be at some stage !

DataDude

Cyrus wrote: »

No York road isn’t prime but it’s not bad, the combination of the external aesthetic of the house and the apparent quality of the fit out do make it very appealing though I have to say ! Good luck to whoever bought it.

A few other things came to mind last night so if it’s ok I’ll pm you Monday with a few other considerations that may not be at the forefront of your mind now but will be at some stage !

Yes, please do. Any insights are much appreciated!

Villa05

thefridge2006 wrote:

Yellen signals it’s ‘game on’ for global corporate tax reform

Will this spark a stock market correction on Monday? They've been already spooked by a significant rise in US interest rates (sorry if my terminology is incorrect) and Big tech has been leading the charge for the last year

How long would it take to reform? would it be short, medium or long term?

cnocbui

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Yellen signals it’s ‘game on’ for global corporate tax reform

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/yellen-signals-it-s-game-on-for-global-corporate-tax-reform-1.4496154

Global rules on taxing tech firms move closer as US drops Trump-era objection

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/global-rules-on-taxing-tech-firms-move-closer-as-us-drops-trump-era-objection-1.4496396

One of the several canaries in a coal mine. We must have an aviary of canaries at this stage

Interesting from Ibec chief economist Gerard Brady when he said that the announcement by the Biden administration is “very meaningful for the prospects of agreement by July”. But he cautioned that an OECD agreement would prove a competitiveness challenge to the Republic’s business model. “We will need to look to invest in other competitiveness levers such as education, research and development, and critical infrastructure.”

Critical infrastructure ..... lol, well that's us fu£ked so

What critical infrastructure do you think is lacking? It's the one thing we don't need spending on. We have a large expensive motorway network that is hugely under utilised, the fibre to the home broadband rollout is proceeding well and means working from home, for those who have access to it, is hugely facilitated. Shannon airport is vastly under utilised and sits there, available. About the one thing I can see we need is a large modern very high speed ferry that can take trucks between Cork And France at 35 knots.

What this country needs is to be more cost competitive and the government needs to take a long cold hard look at the public service and it's inefficiencies and tail-wags-dog way of doing things, woeful value for money, and the entrenched operational mindset within it of how this country should function, which seems to be basically as it was in the 70's.

The most urgent thing needed is reform of the legal system and it's costliness. there was a news headline some years ago about how a US business interest group directly addressed the government complaining about the legal system and it's cost for US companies trying or thinking of operating here. It's a big disincentive to them. A normal person shouldn't need to engage a solicitor multiple times in their lifetime. In Australia you can go cradle to grave without needing to pay or engage a lawyer. I have done 3 property transactions in Australia and never once needed a lawyer, and the cost was less than 10% of what it costs here.

On two occasions in my frustration in trying to deal with the dysfunction of the Irish legal system when I have near broken down in tears and asked a lawyer why is this so f'ed up, they have cutely replied that I should blame the British as it's their system that was inherited - wake up you excuse making Irish clowns!!! Australia still has the Queen as head of state and it too inherited the British legal system, but they got off their lazy excuse-making cute hoorish arses and did something about it. I have spent over 2 years and over €5k trying to sort out a simple executorship problem involving property. If it had been Australian law instead of this pigs breakfast, I wouldn't have even needed a lawyer, let alone the cost.

The legal system here is the cause of the atrocious insurance costs in this country, and what happens when the government talk of some half-measure reform? One of the most senior of the corrupt judges in this country tells the government it's not their business and reform isn't needed, or words implying that. And all because the judges have the livelihoods of family members who profit from insurance cases to consider. Makes you wonder how impartial they aren't when it comes to ruling on such cases.

Her's a hint you lazy stupid people, just copy New Zealand's system of regularising personal injury costs and insurance - one simple, clean, efficient system fixes everything at all levels.

And so it goes through every stratum of Ireland, cost, after, cost, after cost. Governments don't run countries, the public service does. Yes Minister wasn't fiction, it was a bitingly factual portrayal of how things really work, and Ireland's I believe, must have an intentional policy of ensuring high costs and functional friction are built in at every level of systems. I get the theory, it generates make-work which leads to greater employment, but you only have to look at the performance of more efficient societies to see this economic logic is flawed and just wrong.

I wish I had copied it - there was a news article a few years ago detailing a response from Finance to a query/proposal to reduce property tax. It was like something straight out of 'Yes Minister'; 'well minister, if we did that, your daughter would get pregnant by the 16 year old son of a family that moves around a lot, and the the moon would fall out of orbit and land on Ireland. These are inescapable facts, minister.' No alternative suggestions, just an assurance that anything but maintaining the status quo would result is financial catastrophe for the government.

Inefficiencies built into the public service and lovingly maintained and nurtured by them should be expunged. One of the main reasons property transactions are so expensive, time consuming and so inefficient is the land registry system is victorian era. Fix it!. You don't even need to spend ten years of committee meeting and spend 600 million on some private sector IT company that will take the government for an unimaginably expensive ride - just buy the West Australian government’s land registration IT system from them and install it. Job done, up and running inside 18 months.

I once acted as executor there and had to transfer a property in a deceased estate. I drove to DOLA walked in, made enquiries filled out a simple form, handed over the form, ID, Probate certificate, Will and a small payment - maybe €120 or so, I don't remember, it wasn't much. Then I waited about half an hour or less, was called to the counter, and was handed my documents and a new property title and walked out. No lawyer required and all done in about an hour and a half.

Get rid of An Bord Pleanála and An Taisce - or at least totally reform the former and the planning legislation behind it and get rid of the latter as they are undemocratic - they aren’t elected by the people, are not answerable to the people, and their internal workings are such that they have a self-perpetuating membership rules that preclude change or moderation.
In terms of property, this country seems to be in a perpetual state of trying to preserve the distant past - a national nimbyism.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Will this spark a stock market correction on Monday? They've been already spooked by a significant rise in US interest rates (sorry if my terminology is incorrect) and Big tech has been leading the charge for the last year

How long would it take to reform? would it be short, medium or long term?

Talking about agreement by July - I think the hold up was the US (trump) and not what the changes will be. MNCs pretty much know what it will be and understand the impact. I work for a US MNC here and the anticipated OECD changes have been factored into future investment here in Ireland.

There are 2 pillars - digital tax and corp tax. Both impact Ireland but the corp tax will be a larger impact. I believe it could be €2bn/year eventually. Read it somewhere but can’t find article.

cnocbui

Villa05 wrote: »

Will this spark a stock market correction on Monday? They've been already spooked by a significant rise in US interest rates (sorry if my terminology is incorrect) and Big tech has been leading the charge for the last year

How long would it take to reform? would it be short, medium or long term?

This was sparked by the return on 10 year government bond rates in the US rising above the average dividend paid by the share market.

This is a nonsense which the US government should fix. I believe they have onerous tax treatment of dividends, so the US stock market is almost entirely predicated on the ponzi-scheme nonsense of almost all value from the market being extracted as capital gains via share price appreciation. This leads to the utter wasteful and stupid foolishness of US companies buying back their own shares to try and boost their share price because it's supposedly more cost effective than just doing the obvious thing - increasing dividends - because of the tax on dividends.

Reform will be dragged out for years, I reckon - look at how many decades a trade deal takes.

cnocbui

Brilliant timing to emphasise my point:

Buffett’s Berkshire Snaps Up Record $24.7 Billion of Own Stock

Insane.

hometruths

cnocbui wrote: »

Brilliant timing to emphasise my point:



Insane.

Agree with you that a lot of companies engage in quasi fraudulent buybacks, but Buffet is not a good example. If he’s buying his own shares it’s because he thinks they’re cheap, not because he wants to boost the share price for his bonus.

decreds

Pelezico wrote: »

Maintain the rage PropQueries. Good to see you post again.

The Irish property market is insane. Wait for the tax increases and the inevitable squeeze on multinationals with lower tax receipts.

Down down down, property will go.

Changing a light costs as much as a house. Both transactions are insane.

Most people in Dublin don't have a bob to spend. Some have lots and there are only a few houses on market being chased by those few with money.

^ This


Sums up a lot of what is going on at the moment.



Most doing well in life financially and are aged 35 and above bought property a while ago and are not in the market.



The majority who are purchasing in Dublin right now are desperate first time buyers borrowing as much as they can to get on the ladder before it's too late! I'm getting Déjà vu.


There is very little going on besides FTB transactions at the moment. Smart money left the building a long time ago and now plenty of suckers are about to get caught holding the bag. My personal situation means i need to purchase within around 18months (2 years max), if i could put it off i would as bargains will be available in 2024 imo.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Talking about agreement by July - I think the hold up was the US (trump) and not what the changes will be. MNCs pretty much know what it will be and understand the impact. I work for a US MNC here and the anticipated OECD changes have been factored into future investment here in Ireland.

There are 2 pillars - digital tax and corp tax. Both impact Ireland but the corp tax will be a larger impact. I believe it could be €2bn/year eventually. Read it somewhere but can’t find article.

Have you ever read anywhere the estimated share of MNCs to the overall economy?

I know they contribute lions share of corporate tax take and something like one in every 7 new jobs is MNC dependent, etc, but never seen a figure eg 20% of the country's economy is dependent on the multinational sector.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Have you ever read anywhere the estimated share of MNCs to the overall economy?

I know they contribute lions share of corporate tax take and something like one in every 7 new jobs is MNC dependent, etc, but never seen a figure eg 20% of the country's economy is dependent on the multinational sector.

No idea but good question. Will try remember to log into AmCham Monday to see if there is anything on ot

cnocbui

schmittel wrote: »

Agree with you that a lot of companies engage in quasi fraudulent buybacks, but Buffet is not a good example. If he’s buying his own shares it’s because he thinks they’re cheap, not because he wants to boost the share price for his bonus.

You'll need to explain to me how Berkshire Hathaway buying back 25 billion of their own shares, benefits the shareholders of BH to the tune of 25 billion, because I don't get it.

Giving 25 billion worth of dividends to shareholders would benefit them by 25 billion. If it bossts the share price, They have to sell shares to realise the benefit in a practical sense.

Mic 1972

decreds wrote: »

^ This


Sums up a lot of what is going on at the moment.

Most doing well in life financially and are aged 35 and above bought property a while ago and are not in the market.

The majority who are purchasing in Dublin right now are desperate first time buyers borrowing as much as they can to get on the ladder before it's too late! I'm getting Déjà vu.

There is very little going on besides FTB transactions at the moment. Smart money left the building a long time ago and now plenty of suckers are about to get caught holding the bag. My personal situation means i need to purchase within around 18months (2 years max), if i could put it off i would as bargains will be available in 2024 imo.

There are a lot of cash buyer investors actually, the rental market is still very strong and attractive

Danzy

Green Minister Roddy O'Gorman announcement that all refugees will be provided their own door accommodation within 4 months of arrival is a game changer.

In 2019 there were 3500 claims so you are talking 15% of units built in a year will be rented by the State to accommodate them.

Whatever it works out at it will push in prices for houses and rentals, you can be certain in won't be in areas where Socialists live, it will be in working class areas that the impact will be hardest felt.

Bertie Ahern couldn't have dreamt up such a wheeze for large scale landlords and developers.