2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

beauf wrote: »

There already are. People couldn't get a place to rent if they were in any support payments. So the law was changed. High risk tenants couldn't find any places to rent, the law was changed. Etc. Some of these rules banning evictions etc, are to protect tenants, but they are also to stop LL from leaving the market.

Banks aren't willing to risk lending to builders, builders are willing to build property with margin profit, or risk. Especially at the low end. End result shortage of supply at the low end especially. Covid makes this worse, some getting poorer some getting richer. They will build to the market that can pay them.

oh I totally agree, there has been change. I mean serious change though. SF winning most seats, potential economic carnage, due to them or FFG current ridiculous economic mismanagement. If this pup payment has to be paid out for many months after the expected current march deadline...

the insane housing policies. Zero appetite to change course on policies and practices they know are insane and indefensible... Maybe we do need another economic bust, they have learned NOTHING!

all of this, we need to house the poor and vulnerable! coming from many people, who cant even afford to house themselves. How many could afford to rent their own place in dublin! Jesus the irony is off the charts! Thats what the conditioning of RTE and social media will do for you!

beauf wrote: »

There already are. People couldn't get a place to rent if they were in any support payments. So the law was changed. High risk tenants couldn't find any places to rent, the law was changed. Etc. Some of these rules banning evictions etc, are to protect tenants, but they are also to stop LL from leaving the market.

Banks aren't willing to risk lending to builders, builders are willing to build property with margin profit, or risk. Especially at the low end. End result shortage of supply at the low end especially. Covid makes this worse, some getting poorer some getting richer. They will build to the market that can pay them.

But is there risk at the moment for builders at the low end . Councils seem to have to appetite to purchase these en masse at the moment . Especially outside of Dublin

"It's not free"

Cop the F**k on, for enough of them it is free, zero labour output for a handsome sum and benefits handed out which in turn pay for luxury apartments/houses = free, the only people truly "paying" are those of us who break our balls paying the marginal rate of tax at such a pisstake entry level which in turn funds this circus of ****!!

DLR want a large amount for LPT this year including the arrears from 2020 when I purchased the house, they can piss right off if they think I', paying the full amount since after moving in I was greeted with the news that 70 brand new luxury apartments that would cost most of us 3k p/m have been occupied entirely by people getting them for free, DLR squandering money to lease these for 25 years to reward doing **** all, LOL.

The least they could do for me is pay for my new CCTV system and Jurassic park style gates to protect my German metal, or just ban this lot from M and S so I can shop in peace.

beauf wrote: »

The commoditization of housing over recent decades is a problem for most economies. Profits need to be capped but not removed, housing has to be made cheaper, simpler and faster to build. Rather then encouraging economic migration, wealth should be shared globally investing in other poorer

you are preaching to the choir! I spent far too much time reading up and educating myself on it. I would wonder though, if the level of obsessions with property here, ownership,rising prices, is higher in Ireland than anywhere else?

I also do not then believe, that you have such a ridiculous housing divide, between those that the state supports in social housing, and then a fraction "above" them, who have to pay insane rents , mortgages etc, I simply do not believe that such an insane divide, between the have nots and the have nots, exists anywhere else!

an article on exactly what you are talking about in todays irish times, link here to avoid the subscriber only issue...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/l14tf7/how_irelands_housing_crisis_is_part_of_a_global/gjxbcvw/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=

Idbatterim wrote: »

I agree, its carnage for those on the housing ladder or its carnage for those not on it. I ultimately think, that if it takes carnage, to sort out this moral disgrace once and for all, it is a no brainer! absolute no brainer!

If house prices or rent are to become cheaper from 'Carnage' and not a increase in supply of the right type of properties. Then the only way I can see that happening is by an event that impacts employee's earnings.

Whether this be massive unemployment or wage cuts it is not going to make the situation any better for the majority of the people employed and if anything will make the situation worse with the government needing to increase taxes.

PropQueries wrote: »

Was referring to the average number of potential occupants per new built unit.

But I’d also add in the c. 5,000 (or whatever the figure is, maybe half that?) additional dwellings that are reconnected to the ESB each year (reconnections are only counted if they haven’t been connected in the past 2 years) so are very real additional supply into the market annually. I’d also add in the probate sales at a minimum of c. 5,000 - 10,000 per annum.

Contrary to some people’s opinions here, when old people pass away, we don’t send in the demolition contractors and immediately knock down their home so it’s very real additional supply each year.

So, new supply entering the market each year is definitely exceeding demand IMO.

And I think many people don’t realise that those housing demand projection figures put out by the central bank, ESRI etc. include having to replace c. 5,000 units that they believe become obsolete and vanish into space each and every year in Ireland.

I doubt that level of obsolescence (if true) is happening in Dublin, Galway, limerick and Cork each year (where people actually want to live) so the estimates for future housing demand projections are way off IMO, especially as their projections are also based on net inward migration staying at c. 30,000 per annum out to 2030.

This is the post I assume you're referring to and I don't see anything wrong with the assumptions

fliball123 wrote: »

Its all broken politicians not doing what they promise
Renters not paying their rent
Mortgage holders not paying their mortgage
Unions holding too much power
People on welfare expecting to have more than those working..

The whole system is broke

I assume you're talking about pensioners, carers, sick people and the children's allowance for middle income workers etc.


Link here to the breakdown of the €20 billion social welfare budget for 2019: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

PropQueries wrote: »

This is the post I assume you're referring to and I don't see anything wrong with the assumptions

So you claim obsolescence is inflating the demand figure by 5,000 despite the fact that this is a calculated figure from census data:
2016 housing stock - 2011 housing stock - new builds = obsolesce
Also the ESRI do make reference to it and have a full section devoted to why you need to included obsolescence in calculating demand.
-see section 5.3 OBSOLESCENCE on page 33 of REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND STRUCTURAL HOUSING DEMAND AT A COUNTY LEVEL Report published Dec 2020


The ESB reconnections you mention are only 2.5k a year and are mainly due to repossessed properties re-entering the market. yes this add's supply but if you are going to count this you need to reduce supply for properties repossessed. so the overall impact on housing supply is minimal.

Timing belt wrote: »

So you claim obsolescence is inflating the demand figure by 5,000 despite the fact that this is a calculated figure from census data:
2016 housing stock - 2011 housing stock - new builds = obsolesce
Also the ESRI do make reference to it and have a full section devoted to why you need to included obsolescence in calculating demand.
-see section 5.3 OBSOLESCENCE on page 33 of REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND STRUCTURAL HOUSING DEMAND AT A COUNTY LEVEL Report published Dec 2020


The ESB reconnections you mention are only 2.5k a year and are mainly due to repossessed properties re-entering the market. yes this add's supply but if you are going to count this you need to reduce supply for properties repossessed. so the overall impact on housing supply is minimal.

I replied to Props with this link that shows his figures are completely inaccurate with regard to houses coming on stream of course when you prove him wrong he simply ignores the post..Here it is again for you props

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/#:~:text=According%20to%20Sirr's%20figures%2C%20a,19%2C000%20is%20due%20to%20obsolescence.

fliball123 wrote: »

I replied to Props with this link that shows his figures are completely inaccurate with regard to houses coming on stream of course when you prove him wrong he simply ignores the post..Here it is again for you props

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/#:~:text=According%20to%20Sirr's%20figures%2C%20a,19%2C000%20is%20due%20to%20obsolescence.

Of course he will ignore it he always does.... he is inflating his supply by at least 10k

Timing belt wrote: »

So you claim obsolescence is inflating the demand figure by 5,000 despite the fact that this is a calculated figure from census data:
2016 housing stock - 2011 housing stock - new builds = obsolesce
Also the ESRI do make reference to it and have a full section devoted to why you need to included obsolescence in calculating demand.
-see section 5.3 OBSOLESCENCE on page 33 of REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND STRUCTURAL HOUSING DEMAND AT A COUNTY LEVEL Report published Dec 2020


The ESB reconnections you mention are only 2.5k a year and are mainly due to repossessed properties re-entering the market. yes this add's supply but if you are going to count this you need to reduce supply for properties repossessed. so the overall impact on housing supply is minimal.

I don't believe for one second c. 5,000 existing dwellings in and around the counties of Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway (the counties where people want to live and where the majority of demand will be going forward, WFH or no WFH) need to knocked down and replaced each and every year i.e. 50,000 units would need to knocked down and rebuilt, primarily in these four counties over the next 10 years.


I also don't believe using the 2011 - 2016 estimated level of housing obsolescence and applying it going forward would be appropriate given the unique circumstances of that time period.


This, according to your link is how they calculate it:


"For the intercensal period, 2011-2016 in this case, the number of dwellings that became obsolete each year can be obtained by taking the change in the stock of dwellings between Censuses and subtracting this figure from the numbers of dwellings built over the relevant period. Comparing the 2011 to the 2016 Census shows an increase of 8,800 permanent housing units. At the same time, completions in the intercensal period, between the second quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2016, amounted to 29,319 dwellings. The difference between these two figures provides an estimate of obsolete dwellings: a total of 20,519 or 4,104 per annum. This results in an obsolescence rate (obsolete dwellings compared to the total housing stock) of 0.20 per cent"


There is definitely additional supply of at least c. 30,000 additional units entering the market each year when adding up new builds, refurbishments, re-connections, probate sales etc.. That's enough new additional supply entering the market to house c. 90,000 persons each year (average of a couple and one child).


We definitely do not require enough additional housing supply to accommodate an additional 90,000 persons each year going forward IMO.

schmittel wrote: »

If SF get into power it will be because the middle class have spent too long fretting about the value of their home and FF/FG have pandered to that.

And I have no idea why they fret about the value of their home. The state is just going to take whatever value exists in their homes from them through some future version of the fair deal scheme, lower inheritance tax thresholds etc.