2021 Irish Property Market chat - mod warnings post 1

fliball123 wrote: »

I replied to Props with this link that shows his figures are completely inaccurate with regard to houses coming on stream of course when you prove him wrong he simply ignores the post..Here it is again for you props

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/#:~:text=According%20to%20Sirr's%20figures%2C%20a,19%2C000%20is%20due%20to%20obsolescence.

Of course he will ignore it he always does.... he is inflating his supply by at least 10k

MacronvFrugals

GE2020 touched on it slightly but as soon as middle class people see their children struggling unable to move out they will take chances even if a consequence of that is a lowering in value of their home.

3 years time with little action will only exacerbate these figures towards SF

Timing belt wrote: »

So you claim obsolescence is inflating the demand figure by 5,000 despite the fact that this is a calculated figure from census data:
2016 housing stock - 2011 housing stock - new builds = obsolesce
Also the ESRI do make reference to it and have a full section devoted to why you need to included obsolescence in calculating demand.
-see section 5.3 OBSOLESCENCE on page 33 of REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND STRUCTURAL HOUSING DEMAND AT A COUNTY LEVEL Report published Dec 2020

The ESB reconnections you mention are only 2.5k a year and are mainly due to repossessed properties re-entering the market. yes this add's supply but if you are going to count this you need to reduce supply for properties repossessed. so the overall impact on housing supply is minimal.

I replied to Props with this link that shows his figures are completely inaccurate with regard to houses coming on stream of course when you prove him wrong he simply ignores the post..Here it is again for you props

https://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/#:~:text=According%20to%20Sirr's%20figures%2C%20a,19%2C000%20is%20due%20to%20obsolescence.

PropQueries wrote: »

I assume you're talking about pensioners, carers, sick people and the children's allowance for middle income workers etc.

Link here to the breakdown of the €20 billion social welfare budget for 2019: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

Talking about people on the dole and who have no intention of getting a job

PropQueries wrote: »

This is the post I assume you're referring to and I don't see anything wrong with the assumptions

So you claim obsolescence is inflating the demand figure by 5,000 despite the fact that this is a calculated figure from census data:
2016 housing stock - 2011 housing stock - new builds = obsolesce
Also the ESRI do make reference to it and have a full section devoted to why you need to included obsolescence in calculating demand.
-see section 5.3 OBSOLESCENCE on page 33 of REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND STRUCTURAL HOUSING DEMAND AT A COUNTY LEVEL Report published Dec 2020

The ESB reconnections you mention are only 2.5k a year and are mainly due to repossessed properties re-entering the market. yes this add's supply but if you are going to count this you need to reduce supply for properties repossessed. so the overall impact on housing supply is minimal.

schmittel wrote: »

I think we're already seeing asset/commodity price inflation.

CPI in the Uk creeping up -

I do think we might also have quite a serious problem with CPI inflation looming.

Central Banks seem to be trying to tick it up a bit, but if it gathers momentum they'll find it hard to get the genie back in the bottle, and they may end up caught between a rock and a hard place.

You might be right but inflation in the UK, USA and Europe still appears to be weak and no-where near the 3% that would start causing issues.

UK CPI USA CPI Ireland CPI EURO Area HICP
2019 Dec 1.3 2.3 1.3 1.3
2020 Jan 1.8 2.5 1.3 1.4
2020 Feb 1.7 2.3 1.1 1.2
2020 Mar 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.7
2020 Apr 0.8 0.4 -0.1 0.3
2020 May 0.5 0.2 -0.5 0.1
2020 Jun 0.6 0.7 -0.4 0.3
2020 Jul 1.0 1.0 -0.4 0.4
2020 Aug 0.2 1.3 -1 -0.2
2020 Sep 0.5 1.4 -1.2 -0.3
2020 Oct 0.7 1.2 -1.5 -0.3
2020 Nov 0.3 1.2 -1.1 -0.3
2020 Dec 0.6 1.3 -1

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Its all broken politicians not doing what they promise
Renters not paying their rent
Mortgage holders not paying their mortgage
Unions holding too much power
People on welfare expecting to have more than those working..

The whole system is broke

I assume you're talking about pensioners, carers, sick people and the children's allowance for middle income workers etc.

Link here to the breakdown of the €20 billion social welfare budget for 2019: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

This thread is proof -

Fianna Fail broke the economy

Fine Gael broke society

Its all broken politicians not doing what they promise
Renters not paying their rent
Mortgage holders not paying their mortgage
Unions holding too much power
People on welfare expecting to have more than those working..

The whole system is broke

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

Was referring to the average number of potential occupants per new built unit.

But I’d also add in the c. 5,000 (or whatever the figure is, maybe half that?) additional dwellings that are reconnected to the ESB each year (reconnections are only counted if they haven’t been connected in the past 2 years) so are very real additional supply into the market annually. I’d also add in the probate sales at a minimum of c. 5,000 - 10,000 per annum.

Contrary to some people’s opinions here, when old people pass away, we don’t send in the demolition contractors and immediately knock down their home so it’s very real additional supply each year.

So, new supply entering the market each year is definitely exceeding demand IMO.

And I think many people don’t realise that those housing demand projection figures put out by the central bank, ESRI etc. include having to replace c. 5,000 units that they believe become obsolete and vanish into space each and every year in Ireland.

I doubt that level of obsolescence (if true) is happening in Dublin, Galway, limerick and Cork each year (where people actually want to live) so the estimates for future housing demand projections are way off IMO, especially as their projections are also based on net inward migration staying at c. 30,000 per annum out to 2030.

This is the post I assume you're referring to and I don't see anything wrong with the assumptions

PropQueries wrote: »

If I remember correctly, just after the last bust, many suppliers to the councils, state etc. found it very difficult to get paid for services provided.

So not only do big companies engage in these tactics, so does the state.

The banks were the same with the tracker mortgage scandal when they were broke etc. etc.

Landlords in Ireland actually get very lucky given how the vast vast majority of tenants continue to pay their rent even through bad times.

Prop - Are you going to come back to me on the Obsolesce and ESB reconnections or will you just forget about till next time you make post on the topic and go back and post inaccurate information on the topic again?

Idbatterim wrote: »

I agree, its carnage for those on the housing ladder or its carnage for those not on it. I ultimately think, that if it takes carnage, to sort out this moral disgrace once and for all, it is a no brainer! absolute no brainer!

If house prices or rent are to become cheaper from 'Carnage' and not a increase in supply of the right type of properties. Then the only way I can see that happening is by an event that impacts employee's earnings.

Whether this be massive unemployment or wage cuts it is not going to make the situation any better for the majority of the people employed and if anything will make the situation worse with the government needing to increase taxes.

Cyrus wrote: »

who are the elite?

and id wager the % of arrears on social properties is higher than that on 'elite' mortgages.

Outsourcing that kinda made that no longer a problem for local authorities.

beauf wrote: »

The commoditization of housing over recent decades is a problem for most economies. Profits need to be capped but not removed, housing has to be made cheaper, simpler and faster to build. Rather then encouraging economic migration, wealth should be shared globally investing in other poorer

you are preaching to the choir! I spent far too much time reading up and educating myself on it. I would wonder though, if the level of obsessions with property here, ownership,rising prices, is higher in Ireland than anywhere else?

I also do not then believe, that you have such a ridiculous housing divide, between those that the state supports in social housing, and then a fraction "above" them, who have to pay insane rents , mortgages etc, I simply do not believe that such an insane divide, between the have nots and the have nots, exists anywhere else!

an article on exactly what you are talking about in todays irish times, link here to avoid the subscriber only issue...

https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/l14tf7/how_irelands_housing_crisis_is_part_of_a_global/gjxbcvw/?utm_source=amp&utm_medium=

Cyrus

Sweet.Science wrote: »

The vulnerable dont have to pay rent

The elite dont have to pay their mortgage

who are the elite?

and id wager the % of arrears on social properties is higher than that on 'elite' mortgages.

Idbatterim wrote: »

good points. SF ironically of the larger parties, have oppossed the most amount of new developments. I mean it seems to do no harm at local level, win the nimby votes , then at national level, people dont even see the double standard and vote SF in their droves, based on the housing crisis! it is unbelievable!

I mean FFG are a joke. SF are hypocrites and will likely be a joke, but might be the change that is needed, for the **** to all come crashing down the disgraceful system or that happens and FFG can no longer ignore, that they are in effect , totally responsible, if that happens. SF didnt drive the change and voters to themselves, FFG have done it!

I agree, its carnage for those on the housing ladder or its carnage for those not on it. I ultimately think, that if it takes carnage, to sort out this moral disgrace once and for all, it is a no brainer! absolute no brainer!

Sure isnt your home, your home? price only matters if going to sell! There is way , way too much bull**** spouted about rising property prices etc, people here are conditioned to think in one way, homeowners. But the reality is, rip off property, is actually very bad, for the vast vast majority of society...

The commoditization of housing over recent decades is a problem for most economies. Profits need to be capped but not removed, housing has to be made cheaper, simpler and faster to build. Rather then encouraging economic migration, wealth should be shared globally investing in other poorer parts of the world.

Sweet.Science wrote: »

The vulnerable dont have to pay rent

The elite dont have to pay their mortgage

and those in the middle have to cover the losses

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

This thread is proof -

Fianna Fail broke the economy

Fine Gael broke society

.. And the other parties stood back and watched it happen...

I've yet to see any reasonablehousing policy from any party that makes any attempt to cool the market, but at the same time create sustainability in the long term. It's just one emergency knee jerk reaction after another.

schmittel wrote: »

Sinn Fein are the giant elephant in the room. The current FF/FG coalition have shown that they are going to continue with the policies that increase prices, presumably because their voter base are property owners/investors/developers.

The only way this ends is with SF winning most seats in an election, which is likely to be the next general election.

Consider who SF are likely to be able to for a coalition with? PBP and their ilk will be in government influencing policy.

SF will be elected on affordability, not supply. It's not going to cut it to say we cannot do anything different to the last lot, you just have to wait a few years while we build 150k houses.

SO what are SF/PBP etc likely to do? They'll pursue policies that crash the market from the top down.

If you've just bought a 3 bed semi d in Goatstown you might not think it represents the top end of the market, but if you paid 750k for it has a lot of room to drop in SF/PBP eyes.

They are likely to be in government in four years time. If this coincides with unavoidable interest rate rises it could be carnage.

good points. SF ironically of the larger parties, have oppossed the most amount of new developments. I mean it seems to do no harm at local level, win the nimby votes , then at national level, people dont even see the double standard and vote SF in their droves, based on the housing crisis! it is unbelievable!

I mean FFG are a joke. SF are hypocrites and will likely be a joke, but might be the change that is needed, for the **** to all come crashing down the disgraceful system or that happens and FFG can no longer ignore, that they are in effect , totally responsible, if that happens. SF didnt drive the change and voters to themselves, FFG have done it!

If you've just bought a 3 bed semi d in Goatstown you might not think it represents the top end of the market, but if you paid 750k for it has a lot of room to drop in SF/PBP eyes.

They are likely to be in government in four years time. If this coincides with unavoidable interest rate rises it could be carnage.

I agree, its carnage for those on the housing ladder or its carnage for those not on it. I ultimately think, that if it takes carnage, to sort out this moral disgrace once and for all, it is a no brainer! absolute no brainer!

Sure isnt your home, your home? price only matters if going to sell! There is way , way too much bull**** spouted about rising property prices etc, people here are conditioned to think in one way, homeowners. But the reality is, rip off property, is actually very bad, for the vast vast majority of society...

hometruths

Idbatterim wrote: »

oh I totally agree, there has been change. I mean serious change though. SF winning most seats, potential economic carnage, due to them or FFG current ridiculous economic mismanagement. If this pup payment has to be paid out for many months after the expected current march deadline...

the insane housing policies. Zero appetite to change course on policies and practices they know are insane and indefensible... Maybe we do need another economic bust, they have learned NOTHING!

Sinn Fein are the giant elephant in the room. The current FF/FG coalition have shown that they are going to continue with the policies that increase prices, presumably because their voter base are property owners/investors/developers.

The only way this ends is with SF winning most seats in an election, which is likely to be the next general election.

Consider who SF are likely to be able to for a coalition with? PBP and their ilk will be in government influencing policy.

SF will be elected on affordability, not supply. It's not going to cut it to say we cannot do anything different to the last lot, you just have to wait a few years while we build 150k houses.

SO what are SF/PBP etc likely to do? They'll pursue policies that crash the market from the top down.

If you've just bought a 3 bed semi d in Goatstown you might not think it represents the top end of the market, but if you paid 750k for it has a lot of room to drop in SF/PBP eyes.

They are likely to be in government in four years time. If this coincides with unavoidable interest rate rises it could be carnage.

MacronvFrugals

This thread is proof -

Fianna Fail broke the economy

Fine Gael broke society

PeasantHater

"It's not free"

Cop the F**k on, for enough of them it is free, zero labour output for a handsome sum and benefits handed out which in turn pay for luxury apartments/houses = free, the only people truly "paying" are those of us who break our balls paying the marginal rate of tax at such a pisstake entry level which in turn funds this circus of ****!!

DLR want a large amount for LPT this year including the arrears from 2020 when I purchased the house, they can piss right off if they think I', paying the full amount since after moving in I was greeted with the news that 70 brand new luxury apartments that would cost most of us 3k p/m have been occupied entirely by people getting them for free, DLR squandering money to lease these for 25 years to reward doing **** all, LOL.

The least they could do for me is pay for my new CCTV system and Jurassic park style gates to protect my German metal, or just ban this lot from M and S so I can shop in peace.

Sweet.Science wrote: »

But is there risk at the moment for builders at the low end . Councils seem to have to appetite to purchase these en masse at the moment . Especially outside of Dublin

Well I said profit/margin or risk. We'll see how many they complete. They are big on announcements but there's a lot of mumbling and muttering about dog eating homework when it comes to completions.

Sweet.Science

beauf wrote: »

There already are. People couldn't get a place to rent if they were in any support payments. So the law was changed. High risk tenants couldn't find any places to rent, the law was changed. Etc. Some of these rules banning evictions etc, are to protect tenants, but they are also to stop LL from leaving the market.

Banks aren't willing to risk lending to builders, builders are willing to build property with margin profit, or risk. Especially at the low end. End result shortage of supply at the low end especially. Covid makes this worse, some getting poorer some getting richer. They will build to the market that can pay them.

But is there risk at the moment for builders at the low end . Councils seem to have to appetite to purchase these en masse at the moment . Especially outside of Dublin

PropQueries wrote: »

If I remember correctly, just after the last bust, many suppliers to the councils, state etc. found it very difficult to get paid for services provided.

So not only do big companies engage in these tactics, so does the state.

The banks were the same with the tracker mortgage scandal when they were broke etc. etc.

Landlords in Ireland actually get very lucky given how the vast vast majority of tenants continue to pay their rent even through bad times.

In the context of Covid interventions. Pretty much all the groups mentioned above got some sort of intervention with the exception of LLs. All they can do is take one or two mortgage holidays, which you end up paying more for in terms of a higher interest payment. I'm open to correction but they may be the only group in that list, that had specific laws passed for that group only that negatively impacted that group only.

How many other business are forced in law to stay opening running up massive debts. Which will be largely unrecoverable.

beauf wrote: »

There already are. People couldn't get a place to rent if they were in any support payments. So the law was changed. High risk tenants couldn't find any places to rent, the law was changed. Etc. Some of these rules banning evictions etc, are to protect tenants, but they are also to stop LL from leaving the market.

Banks aren't willing to risk lending to builders, builders are willing to build property with margin profit, or risk. Especially at the low end. End result shortage of supply at the low end especially. Covid makes this worse, some getting poorer some getting richer. They will build to the market that can pay them.

oh I totally agree, there has been change. I mean serious change though. SF winning most seats, potential economic carnage, due to them or FFG current ridiculous economic mismanagement. If this pup payment has to be paid out for many months after the expected current march deadline...

the insane housing policies. Zero appetite to change course on policies and practices they know are insane and indefensible... Maybe we do need another economic bust, they have learned NOTHING!

all of this, we need to house the poor and vulnerable! coming from many people, who cant even afford to house themselves. How many could afford to rent their own place in dublin! Jesus the irony is off the charts! Thats what the conditioning of RTE and social media will do for you!

TheSheriff wrote: »

I remember this comment being made multiple times now on this thread, probably two years back. I don't feel sorry or sympathetic for those people who bought: I feel sympathetic for those caught in never ending rent, which is likely to continue.

and would it be fair to say, that those caught in the rent trap are total victims of taxation reducing their spending power, to finance their own homes and idiotic housing policies?

we have a political set up of FFG, as a generalisation, they would get no votes from the social housing brigate, YET , YET the "middle" they claim to represent, are becoming worse off and hammered, to finance the absolute pisstaking as you correctly point out, that goes on at the top and "bottom"... "bottom"... :rolleyes:

I've been saying that for years...