Sweet.Science wrote: » But is there risk at the moment for builders at the low end . Councils seem to have to appetite to purchase these en masse at the moment . Especially outside of Dublin
Idbatterim wrote: » oh I totally agree, there has been change. I mean serious change though. SF winning most seats, potential economic carnage, due to them or FFG current ridiculous economic mismanagement. If this pup payment has to be paid out for many months after the expected current march deadline... the insane housing policies. Zero appetite to change course on policies and practices they know are insane and indefensible... Maybe we do need another economic bust, they have learned NOTHING!
schmittel wrote: » Sinn Fein are the giant elephant in the room. The current FF/FG coalition have shown that they are going to continue with the policies that increase prices, presumably because their voter base are property owners/investors/developers. The only way this ends is with SF winning most seats in an election, which is likely to be the next general election. Consider who SF are likely to be able to for a coalition with? PBP and their ilk will be in government influencing policy. SF will be elected on affordability, not supply. It's not going to cut it to say we cannot do anything different to the last lot, you just have to wait a few years while we build 150k houses. SO what are SF/PBP etc likely to do? They'll pursue policies that crash the market from the top down. If you've just bought a 3 bed semi d in Goatstown you might not think it represents the top end of the market, but if you paid 750k for it has a lot of room to drop in SF/PBP eyes. They are likely to be in government in four years time. If this coincides with unavoidable interest rate rises it could be carnage.
If you've just bought a 3 bed semi d in Goatstown you might not think it represents the top end of the market, but if you paid 750k for it has a lot of room to drop in SF/PBP eyes. They are likely to be in government in four years time. If this coincides with unavoidable interest rate rises it could be carnage.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » This thread is proof - Fianna Fail broke the economy Fine Gael broke society
Sweet.Science wrote: » The vulnerable dont have to pay rent The elite dont have to pay their mortgage
Idbatterim wrote: » good points. SF ironically of the larger parties, have oppossed the most amount of new developments. I mean it seems to do no harm at local level, win the nimby votes , then at national level, people dont even see the double standard and vote SF in their droves, based on the housing crisis! it is unbelievable! I mean FFG are a joke. SF are hypocrites and will likely be a joke, but might be the change that is needed, for the **** to all come crashing down the disgraceful system or that happens and FFG can no longer ignore, that they are in effect , totally responsible, if that happens. SF didnt drive the change and voters to themselves, FFG have done it! I agree, its carnage for those on the housing ladder or its carnage for those not on it. I ultimately think, that if it takes carnage, to sort out this moral disgrace once and for all, it is a no brainer! absolute no brainer! Sure isnt your home, your home? price only matters if going to sell! There is way , way too much bull**** spouted about rising property prices etc, people here are conditioned to think in one way, homeowners. But the reality is, rip off property, is actually very bad, for the vast vast majority of society...
beauf wrote: » The commoditization of housing over recent decades is a problem for most economies. Profits need to be capped but not removed, housing has to be made cheaper, simpler and faster to build. Rather then encouraging economic migration, wealth should be shared globally investing in other poorer
Cyrus wrote: » who are the elite? and id wager the % of arrears on social properties is higher than that on 'elite' mortgages.
Idbatterim wrote: » I agree, its carnage for those on the housing ladder or its carnage for those not on it. I ultimately think, that if it takes carnage, to sort out this moral disgrace once and for all, it is a no brainer! absolute no brainer!
PropQueries wrote: » If I remember correctly, just after the last bust, many suppliers to the councils, state etc. found it very difficult to get paid for services provided. So not only do big companies engage in these tactics, so does the state. The banks were the same with the tracker mortgage scandal when they were broke etc. etc. Landlords in Ireland actually get very lucky given how the vast vast majority of tenants continue to pay their rent even through bad times.
PropQueries wrote: » Was referring to the average number of potential occupants per new built unit. But I’d also add in the c. 5,000 (or whatever the figure is, maybe half that?) additional dwellings that are reconnected to the ESB each year (reconnections are only counted if they haven’t been connected in the past 2 years) so are very real additional supply into the market annually. I’d also add in the probate sales at a minimum of c. 5,000 - 10,000 per annum. Contrary to some people’s opinions here, when old people pass away, we don’t send in the demolition contractors and immediately knock down their home so it’s very real additional supply each year. So, new supply entering the market each year is definitely exceeding demand IMO. And I think many people don’t realise that those housing demand projection figures put out by the central bank, ESRI etc. include having to replace c. 5,000 units that they believe become obsolete and vanish into space each and every year in Ireland. I doubt that level of obsolescence (if true) is happening in Dublin, Galway, limerick and Cork each year (where people actually want to live) so the estimates for future housing demand projections are way off IMO, especially as their projections are also based on net inward migration staying at c. 30,000 per annum out to 2030.
fliball123 wrote: » Its all broken politicians not doing what they promise Renters not paying their rent Mortgage holders not paying their mortgage Unions holding too much powerPeople on welfare expecting to have more than those working.. The whole system is broke
schmittel wrote: » I think we're already seeing asset/commodity price inflation.CPI in the Uk creeping up - I do think we might also have quite a serious problem with CPI inflation looming. Central Banks seem to be trying to tick it up a bit, but if it gathers momentum they'll find it hard to get the genie back in the bottle, and they may end up caught between a rock and a hard place.
PropQueries wrote: » This is the post I assume you're referring to and I don't see anything wrong with the assumptions
PropQueries wrote: » I assume you're talking about pensioners, carers, sick people and the children's allowance for middle income workers etc. Link here to the breakdown of the €20 billion social welfare budget for 2019: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/
Timing belt wrote: » So you claim obsolescence is inflating the demand figure by 5,000 despite the fact that this is a calculated figure from census data: 2016 housing stock - 2011 housing stock - new builds = obsolesce Also the ESRI do make reference to it and have a full section devoted to why you need to included obsolescence in calculating demand. -see section 5.3 OBSOLESCENCE on page 33 of REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHICS AND STRUCTURAL HOUSING DEMAND AT A COUNTY LEVEL Report published Dec 2020 The ESB reconnections you mention are only 2.5k a year and are mainly due to repossessed properties re-entering the market. yes this add's supply but if you are going to count this you need to reduce supply for properties repossessed. so the overall impact on housing supply is minimal.
fliball123 wrote: » I replied to Props with this link that shows his figures are completely inaccurate with regard to houses coming on stream of course when you prove him wrong he simply ignores the post..Here it is again for you propshttps://www.housing.eolasmagazine.ie/the-challenge-of-housing-obsolescence/#:~:text=According%20to%20Sirr's%20figures%2C%20a,19%2C000%20is%20due%20to%20obsolescence.
MacronvFrugals wrote: » GE2020 touched on it slightly but as soon as middle class people see their children struggling unable to move out they will take chances even if a consequence of that is a lowering in value of their home. 3 years time with little action will only exacerbate these figures towards SF
Timing belt wrote: » It's not the lowering value of their home that most middle class people will be worried about it will be their jobs and amount of extra tax they will pay if SF get in power.
schmittel wrote: » If SF get into power it will be because the middle class have spent too long fretting about the value of their home and FF/FG have pandered to that.
PropQueries wrote: » I don't believe for one second c. 5,000 existing dwellings in and around the counties of Dublin, Cork, Limerick and Galway (the counties where people want to live and where the majority of demand will be going forward, WFH or no WFH) need to knocked down and replaced each and every year i.e. 50,000 units would need to knocked down and rebuilt, primarily in these four counties over the next 10 years.
"The smallest obsolescence rates for the 2011-2016 period are registered around Dublin and the South coast, whereas the largest are located on the North-West."
I also don't believe using the 2011 - 2016 estimated level of housing obsolescence and applying it going forward would be appropriate given the unique circumstances of that time period.
There is definitely Additional supply of at least c. 30,000 additional units entering the market each year when adding up new builds, refurbishments, re-connections, probate sales etc.. That's enough new additional supply entering the market to house c. 90,000 persons each year (average of a couple and one child).
Timing belt wrote: » The ESRI report acknowledge that obsolescence is lower in certain areas than others and take this into account in their calculations What is different now to then when it comes to old buildings becoming obsolete. Can you please explain? I agree with the new builds but obsolescence, ESB re-connections and probate sales are you making up figures. Obsolescence - I have discussed above. ESB Re-connections - I have explained is repossessions as per the CSO but you are ignoring this. Probate sales - Are included in the population growth figures as believe it or not they include deaths in calculating this so you are double counting this.
It's not the lowering value of their home that most middle class people will be worried about it will be their jobs and amount of extra tax they will pay if SF get in power.
