2021 Irish Property Market chat - *mod warnings post 1*

SmokyMo

There will be a lot of unfortunate people who will spend the rest of their lives repaying massive mortgages on properties that dont worth that.

fliball123

SmokyMo wrote: »

There will be a lot of unfortunate people who will spend the rest of their lives repaying massive mortgages on properties that dont worth that.

and others will spend their lives paying rent as they did not buy.

MacronvFrugals

Folks is there any way of finding out more about this sale, 19 new residential units sold in one go for 5.3 million in Finglas during December.

I ask because i wasnt aware there was any new developments, could this be things like student accommodation?

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-E5FB1504BF2979D28025864E004D0743?OpenDocument

AlmightyCushion

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Folks is there any way of finding out more about this sale, 19 new residential units sold in one go for 5.3 million in Finglas during December.

I ask because i wasnt aware there was any new developments, could this be things like student accommodation?

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/Website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/eStampUNID/UNID-E5FB1504BF2979D28025864E004D0743?OpenDocument

Would it be this?

https://mcardledoyle.ie/project/dunsoghly-residential-development/

19 units completed in q4 2020

MacronvFrugals

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

Would it be this?

https://mcardledoyle.ie/project/dunsoghly-residential-development/

19 units completed in q4 2020

Thanks Almighty, it has to be that

I passed there a few times but never noticed any building going on, says a lot about my eyesight

MacronvFrugals

Mad_maxx wrote: »

market is on fire , my sister and her husband outbid on a four bedroom refurbished house in Dublin 8 , they bowed out at 740 k

I would agree with this even on the lower end of the Dublin market, take Finglas for example last year I noticed sustained 10k-30k drops and almost no price increases.

Around October there was 126 properties for sale and today there is 73 available. In the last couple of weeks price increases are starting to appear again so I would agree with maxx it seems both the low and high end of the market are performing really well on the surface

johnnyskeleton

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Nothing is down, even the graphs that are listed in the article are clearly showing the increase. 2018 had lower prices than anything in 2020

cso wrote:

In Dublin, residential property prices saw a decline of 0.9% in the year to November, while property prices outside Dublin were 1.2% higher. See Figure 1.1

Figure 1.2 shows houses in dublin city, DL-rathdown, border and mid west houses are down. Apartments are up nationwide.

Dublin all residential property is down 0.9% and houses 1.1%, with apartments up 0.9%

Figure 1.3 shows the Dublin average at 127.7 in Oct 18 down to 124.5. Nationally, they are back up to Oct 2019 levels. 2015 is the base level.

So yeah, some things are down, other things are up.

DataDude

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I would agree with this even on the lower end of the Dublin market, take Finglas for example last year I noticed sustained 10k-30k drops and almost no price increases.

Around October there was 126 properties for sale and today there is 73 available. In the last couple of weeks price increases are starting to appear again so I would agree with maxx it seems both the low and high end of the market are performing really well on the surface

To add to this, I have been looking in the South County Dublin area (€900k-€1.2m range) for the last 12-18 months and have seen exactly the same effect. Definite weakness in the middle of last year with the vast majority of PPR entries coming in below asking (approx. 8% across 50+ properties). There is a clear reversal of this now, however, I am very relaxed about this personally. Ignoring long term impacts of COVID on supply and demand, it would seem obvious that short term demand is likely to be impacted far less than short term supply. In simple terms, would you go to view a house now (for most, I think yes). Would you allow 20+ people to view your home (for many, I suspect no).

This huge supply constraint with much lesser impact on demand is naturally going to lead to circumstances described in posts above...desperate buyers bidding against each other for an artificially (and historically) low number of properties and ultimately leading to temporarily inflated prices. I can't understand why anyone would attempt to buy right now, but I guess everyone has their reasons.

Also on asking price reports which have been oft cited here. I find it incredible how the producers of these reports have not cited the fact that total number of properties for sale have dropped from 25k+ to less than 13k. Anyone who deals with data with any shred of credibility would acknowledge that a shift like we have seen since last March is going to skew the "mix of sellers" vs average times making asking price to prior analysis extremely uncertain. In particular if fewer new properties are being added that one would normally expect, then it is inevitable there will be a higher proportion of properties which have been on the site for longer. It would be reasonable to conclude that properties on the site for longer probably have higher asking prices than average...I guess that doesn't make a good headline though!

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

I have to agree with this video.
In my 18 years time of investing in stock market, it's the first time I would call current stock market as a Bubble (mainly Tech).
I had the same opinion in 2006 around the Property market. Today I definitely would not call Irish residential Property in Bubble, although if stock crash it would have impact on Property, but by far lower impact than it was in in 2008 crisis Bubble.
Will be closely watching stock market this year.

The issue is not about a bubble in Tech shares... The issue is if we see to much inflation it will raise yields on Government debt. The central banks will not be in a position to undertake QE to push yields lower as this will generate more inflation. In this situation we have:

• Government debt servicing costs increase
• The increase in yield will also push up the cost of servicing all Corporate and personal Debt
• The logic that has pushed the share prices (and other assets classes) higher is that market has repriced to the low interest rare environment. All of a sudden there is a big hole in this logic which results in a repricing down of Shares and other assets. (Tech stocks are more sensitive to interest rate so will see larger falls)

Hopefully at this stage the economy will be growing sufficiently to be able to deal with the increase in debt servicing costs. (e.g. tax take is up because the economy has grown)

If the inflation is significant enough the central banks may need to start tapering QE or raise rates even if the economy is not growing. This will result in the same conditions as listed above but will result in growth being cut back at the same time as the Brakes have to be applied to the economy.

If this happens then we have very serious issues as the increase in debt servicing costs need to be found somewhere by the Government, Companies and individuals.

• The Governments will need to cut expenditure or increase their tax take.
• Companies will cut costs which means unemployment which means lower taxes.
• Individuals will have higher mortgage repayments (unless they are fixed) and are likely to be paying more tax (assuming they have not lost their job)

Although I agree with you that there is no Bubble in Irish house prices. I can not see how they would not be impacted in such a situation.

Browney7

DataDude wrote: »

To add to this, I have been looking in the South County Dublin area (€900k-€1.2m range) for the last 12-18 months and have seen exactly the same effect. Definite weakness in the middle of last year with the vast majority of PPR entries coming in below asking (approx. 8% across 50+ properties). There is a clear reversal of this now, however, I am very relaxed about this personally. Ignoring long term impacts of COVID on supply and demand, it would seem obvious that short term demand is likely to be impacted far less than short term supply. In simple terms, would you go to view a house now (for most, I think yes). Would you allow 20+ people to view your home (for many, I suspect no).

This huge supply constraint with much lesser impact on demand is naturally going to lead to circumstances described in posts above...desperate buyers bidding against each other for an artificially (and historically) low number of properties and ultimately leading to temporarily inflated prices. I can't understand why anyone would attempt to buy right now, but I guess everyone has their reasons.

Also on asking price reports which have been oft cited here. I find it incredible how the producers of these reports have not cited the fact that total number of properties for sale have dropped from 25k+ to less than 13k. Anyone who deals with data with any shred of credibility would acknowledge that a shift like we have seen since last March is going to skew the "mix of sellers" vs average times making asking price to prior analysis extremely uncertain. In particular if fewer new properties are being added that one would normally expect, then it is inevitable there will be a higher proportion of properties which have been on the site for longer. It would be reasonable to conclude that properties on the site for longer probably have higher asking prices than average...I guess that doesn't make a good headline though!

On your last point re mix for sale, I believe Daft aim to make an allowance for this but they don't disclose the methodology. "All models are wrong but some are useful" springs to mind

PropQueries

DataDude wrote: »

To add to this, I have been looking in the South County Dublin area (€900k-€1.2m range) for the last 12-18 months and have seen exactly the same effect. Definite weakness in the middle of last year with the vast majority of PPR entries coming in below asking (approx. 8% across 50+ properties). There is a clear reversal of this now, however, I am very relaxed about this personally. Ignoring long term impacts of COVID on supply and demand, it would seem obvious that short term demand is likely to be impacted far less than short term supply. In simple terms, would you go to view a house now (for most, I think yes). Would you allow 20+ people to view your home (for many, I suspect no).

This huge supply constraint with much lesser impact on demand is naturally going to lead to circumstances described in posts above...desperate buyers bidding against each other for an artificially (and historically) low number of properties and ultimately leading to temporarily inflated prices. I can't understand why anyone would attempt to buy right now, but I guess everyone has their reasons.

Also on asking price reports which have been oft cited here. I find it incredible how the producers of these reports have not cited the fact that total number of properties for sale have dropped from 25k+ to less than 13k. Anyone who deals with data with any shred of credibility would acknowledge that a shift like we have seen since last March is going to skew the "mix of sellers" vs average times making asking price to prior analysis extremely uncertain. In particular if fewer new properties are being added that one would normally expect, then it is inevitable there will be a higher proportion of properties which have been on the site for longer. It would be reasonable to conclude that properties on the site for longer probably have higher asking prices than average...I guess that doesn't make a good headline though!

But isn’t that the thing. Construction levels didn’t collapse last year as many appear to be spinning it. We still built c. 20,000 new units, which was not too far off the 2019 new build figure.

If supply is down, it just means many pulled their properties to see where the market is heading.

This means there should be a relative flood of properties re-entering the market once this covid thing passes as this pulled supply is going to re-enter the market at some stage as these properties didn’t just disappear off the face of the planet in March.

And we’re still likely to build at least another c. 20,000 new units this year which is enough to accommodate 60,000 persons based on an average of three (couple and one child) per unit.

We’re a very very small country population wise.

Mic 1972

Supply is down because there are virtually no new buildings been added.
Second hand market is the same as before. People aren't pulling their houses from the market in a moment like this because prices are at the peak, if you are looking to sell this is the best time

PropQueries

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Supply is down because there are virtually no new buildings been added.
Second hand market is the same as before. People aren't pulling their houses from the market in a moment like this because prices are at the peak, if you are looking to sell this is the best time

So c. 20,000 new builds weren't constructed last year? That's not far off the figure of 21,241 built in 2019.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

And we’re still likely to build at least another c. 20,000 new units this year which is enough to accommodate 60,000 persons based on an average of three (couple and one child) per unit.

The average number of people per household was 2.81 persons per 2016 Census and according to the latest ESRI report is expected to fall to 2.43 by 2040.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

The average number of people per household was 2.81 persons per 2016 Census and according to the latest ESRI report is expected to fall to 2.43 by 2040.

But wouldn't that average include the over 65's whose children have most likely left? It's young couples who may have or are hoping to have a child that require housing and most of the demand for home ownership would most likely come from.

DataDude

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Supply is down because there are virtually no new buildings been added.
Second hand market is the same as before. People aren't pulling their houses from the market in a moment like this because prices are at the peak, if you are looking to sell this is the best time

There are a lot of unknowns in the realms of the property market, but this is absolutely not true. I would agree it is a fantastic time to sell, but I'm also sure that, for example, there have not been many 80+ year olds welcoming open viewings of their homes while they go out in search of houses to downsize to or perhaps a nursing home. I doubt a slightly higher potential selling price would be enough to coax them to do so either somehow. I understand anecdotes are of limited use, but for what it's worth I know multiple people who can fall into the above description.

For sure supply is down, but as a percentage of the total expected to be built last year, I think it's being overplayed. Throw in a year of migration largely gone (which is where the vast majority of our additional housing needs come from) and I suspect the net difference between supply and demand would be unremarkably affected by COVID.

DataDude

Browney7 wrote: »

On your last point re mix for sale, I believe Daft aim to make an allowance for this but they don't disclose the methodology. "All models are wrong but some are useful" springs to mind

This is true and I have attempted to find more information on this, but to no avail. That said, as someone who's job is currently being made a nightmare by trying to model the impact of COVID, models are feeling more useless than ever. All my reports are covered with caveats that "this could be a load of nonsense, we don't really know", surprised Daft haven't done the same.

Perhaps I would be astounded by the wizardry of the Daft reports - but with 0 relevant historic data, I'd be shocked if any effort came close to reflecting the seismic shift in human behavior over the last 12 months! Time will tell

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

But wouldn't that average include the over 65's whose children have most likely left? It's young couples who may have or are hoping to have a child that require housing and most of the demand for home ownership would most likely come from.

So you are only talking about young couples and new houses all of a sudden

So we can dismiss second hand homes and older generations as most of the demand will not be coming from them despite this is where Circa.70% of the sales of the Irish housing market take place.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But isn’t that the thing. Construction levels didn’t collapse last year as many appear to be spinning it. We still built c. 20,000 new units, which was not too far off the 2019 new build figure.

If supply is down, it just means many pulled their properties to see where the market is heading.

This means there should be a relative flood of properties re-entering the market once this covid thing passes as this pulled supply is going to re-enter the market at some stage as these properties didn’t just disappear off the face of the planet in March.

And we’re still likely to build at least another c. 20,000 new units this year which is enough to accommodate 60,000 persons based on an average of three (couple and one child) per unit.

We’re a very very small country population wise.

Are the figures for last years build actually out or is it you guessing or someone else guessing. Also if people are pulling their property it would be safe to assume that if they were going to sell that they were also going to buy, would the number of people buying not go up by around the same amount as what would come on stream for those selling??? We have seen an big increase in mortgage approvals which would suggest demand is on the up. If supply is down then I would reckon demand is down by the same amount as someone trading up and down is a zero sum game.So when the flood comes for supply the same flood will there for demand.

Timing belt

DataDude wrote: »

There are a lot of unknowns in the realms of the property market, but this is absolutely not true. I would agree it is a fantastic time to sell, but I'm also sure that, for example, there have not been many 80+ year olds welcoming open viewings of their homes while they go out in search of houses to downsize to or perhaps a nursing home. I doubt a slightly higher potential selling price would be enough to coax them to do so either somehow. I understand anecdotes are of limited use, but for what it's worth I know multiple people who can fall into the above description.

For sure supply is down, but as a percentage of the total expected to be built last year, I think it's being overplayed. Throw in a year of migration largely gone (which is where the vast majority of our additional housing needs come from) and I suspect the net difference between supply and demand would be unremarkably affected by COVID.

You are right that there are a lot of Unknows with Covid but the lack of supply is in the commencements of new builds which was down by 6,000 properties for the first 8 months of the year. This will be felt in a year or two when migration numbers may have returned.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Are the figures for last years build actually out or is it you guessing or someone else guessing. Also if people are pulling their property it would be safe to assume that if they were going to sell that they were also going to buy, would the number of people buying not go up by around the same amount as what would come on stream for those selling??? We have seen an big increase in mortgage approvals which would suggest demand is on the up. If supply is down then I would reckon demand is down by the same amount as someone trading up and down is a zero sum game.So when the flood comes for supply the same flood will there for demand.

I think you might be over simplifying by calling it a zero sum game (although I get the idea!). Even if we assume that all sellers are also buyers, many will not buy the same size/type of house or even in the same area. I'm not claiming to know what exactly this means for the property market when thousands of transactions that would normally have happened don't. Or when thousands of fewer second hand homes are for sale than there would normally be. I do however think it's unlikely the overall impact is zero.

fliball123

DataDude wrote: »

I think you might be over simplifying by calling it a zero sum game (although I get the idea!). Even if we assume that all sellers are also buyers, many will not buy the same size/type of house or even in the same area. I'm not claiming to know what exactly this means for the property market when thousands of transactions that would normally have happened don't. Or when thousands of fewer second hand homes are for sale than there would normally be. I do however think it's unlikely the overall impact is zero.

Well how is it not a zero sum game if someone is holding a property off the market it means they cant buy or sell. You will have people both up-sizing and downsizing. The main point is someone is not going to sell their property unless they have one to move into now that may be renting or buying but either way a property that was available to house someone is no longer there so it is zero sum unless they are emigrating and when that comes back into play and we go back to the way things were pre-covid (well for the last decade or so) we will have to find accommodation for 30k+ more people who were coming to live here from other countries.

Timing belt

DataDude wrote: »

I think you might be over simplifying by calling it a zero sum game (although I get the idea!). Even if we assume that all sellers are also buyers, many will not buy the same size/type of house or even in the same area. I'm not claiming to know what exactly this means for the property market when thousands of transactions that would normally have happened don't. Or when thousands of fewer second hand homes are for sale than there would normally be. I do however think it's unlikely the overall impact is zero.

At a National level it will be a zero sum gain unless you have people migrating to/from other countries.

As you say there will be different demand and supply at a local level and property types that will impact price but if someone is selling they are also buying unless they plan on renting which also impacts.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

So you are only talking about young couples and new houses all of a sudden

So we can dismiss second hand homes and older generations as most of the demand will not be coming from them despite this is where Circa.70% of the sales of the Irish housing market take place.

Was referring to the average number of potential occupants per new built unit.

But I’d also add in the c. 5,000 (or whatever the figure is, maybe half that?) additional dwellings that are reconnected to the ESB each year (reconnections are only counted if they haven’t been connected in the past 2 years) so are very real additional supply into the market annually. I’d also add in the probate sales at a minimum of c. 5,000 - 10,000 per annum.

Contrary to some people’s opinions here, when old people pass away, we don’t send in the demolition contractors and immediately knock down their home so it’s very real additional supply each year.

So, new supply entering the market each year is definitely exceeding demand IMO.

And I think many people don’t realise that those housing demand projection figures put out by the central bank, ESRI etc. include having to replace c. 5,000 units that they believe become obsolete and vanish into space each and every year in Ireland.

I doubt that level of obsolescence (if true) is happening in Dublin, Galway, limerick and Cork each year (where people actually want to live) so the estimates for future housing demand projections are way off IMO, especially as their projections are also based on net inward migration staying at c. 30,000 per annum out to 2030.

DataDude

fliball123 wrote: »

Well how is it not a zero sum game if someone is holding a property off the market it means they cant buy or sell. You will have people both up-sizing and downsizing. The main point is someone is not going to sell their property unless they have one to move into now that may be renting or buying but either way a property that was available to house someone is no longer there so it is zero sum unless they are emigrating and when that comes back into play and we go back to the way things were pre-covid (well for the last decade or so) we will have to find accommodation for 30k+ more people who were coming to live here from other countries.

It's not a zero sum game as someone selling a 5 bed in Glenageary and buying a 2 bed in Greystones do not cancel each other out. Your statement above assumes that the dynamics in upsizing and downsizing are perfectly in sync. Perhaps they are, I would be interested to see this. Pure speculation, but I suspect "upsizers" are less deterred by COVID-19 than "downsizers" when you consider their average age profile.

Even if we purely consider the basis of "number of housing units" and ignore size or location, you have also assumed that (on average) every single seller of a house leads to one house purchase. Maybe this is true for a cohort (lets say 80%). In the remaining cohort for which this might not hold true, do you think there are more sellers who use the proceeds to purchase multiple properties, or more who are moving to (or selling) a second home, or a nursing home, or abroad?

These are all complex issues.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Was referring to the average number of potential occupants per new built unit.

But I’d also add in the c. 5,000 (or whatever the figure is, maybe half that?) additional dwellings that are reconnected to the ESB each year (reconnections are only counted if they haven’t been connected in the past 2 years) so are very real additional supply into the market annually. I’d also add in the probate sales at a minimum of c. 5,000 - 10,000 per annum.

Contrary to some people’s opinions here, when old people pass away, we don’t send in the demolition contractors and immediately knock down their home so it’s very real additional supply each year.

So, new supply entering the market each year is definitely exceeding demand IMO.

And I think many people don’t realise that those housing demand projection figures put out by the central bank, ESRI etc. include having to replace c. 5,000 units that they believe become obsolete and vanish into space each and every year in Ireland.

I doubt that level of obsolescence (if true) is happening in Dublin, Galway, limerick and Cork each year (where people actually want to live) so the estimates for future housing demand projections are way off IMO, especially as their projections are also based on net inward migration staying at c. 30,000 per annum out to 2030.

Obsolescence data can be easily calculated from the Census data if you look at the housing stock movement and the number of new builds it is not a figure that is just plucked out of the air.... But you know this as it has previously be pointed out on many occasions but you choose to ignore it. As I said previously stick to the facts if what you are saying is correct the data will back it up.

If you are looking at the natural increase of the population you have already included probate sales why are you double counting?

hometruths

Timing belt wrote: »

The issue is not about a bubble in Tech shares... The issue is if we see to much inflation it will raise yields on Government debt. The central banks will not be in a position to undertake QE to push yields lower as this will generate more inflation. In this situation we have:

• Government debt servicing costs increase
• The increase in yield will also push up the cost of servicing all Corporate and personal Debt
• The logic that has pushed the share prices (and other assets classes) higher is that market has repriced to the low interest rare environment. All of a sudden there is a big hole in this logic which results in a repricing down of Shares and other assets. (Tech stocks are more sensitive to interest rate so will see larger falls)

Hopefully at this stage the economy will be growing sufficiently to be able to deal with the increase in debt servicing costs. (e.g. tax take is up because the economy has grown)

If the inflation is significant enough the central banks may need to start tapering QE or raise rates even if the economy is not growing. This will result in the same conditions as listed above but will result in growth being cut back at the same time as the Brakes have to be applied to the economy.

If this happens then we have very serious issues as the increase in debt servicing costs need to be found somewhere by the Government, Companies and individuals.

• The Governments will need to cut expenditure or increase their tax take.
• Companies will cut costs which means unemployment which means lower taxes.
• Individuals will have higher mortgage repayments (unless they are fixed) and are likely to be paying more tax (assuming they have not lost their job)

Although I agree with you that there is no Bubble in Irish house prices. I can not see how they would not be impacted in such a situation.

I got the impression from our previous discussions on the subject that you did not think inflation would be an issue. Has this changed?

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

I got the impression from our previous discussions on the subject that you did not think inflation would be an issue. Has this changed?

I have always said inflation will be an issue.... It's just that I don't see it feeding through on the CPI for a while yet... but who know I might be wrong... That is why I was interested in your opinion on whether we would see inflation or not.

(when I talk about inflation I mean CPI not asset inflation)

hometruths

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Supply is down because there are virtually no new buildings been added.
Second hand market is the same as before. People aren't pulling their houses from the market in a moment like this because prices are at the peak, if you are looking to sell this is the best time

Sorry but this is nonsense. Second hand market supply is down because of COVID. Putting a house on the market right now is not as straightforward a decision as simply looking at rising prices and thinking this is the best time.

Mic 1972

schmittel wrote: »

Putting a house on the market right now is not as straightforward a decision as simply looking at rising prices and thinking this is the best time.

I'll give you that it's not possible to arrange for viewing during a lock down, but restrictions are lifted from time to time and viewings can then take place with all due precautions.
Whatever the reason is for someone to sell a house, they can sell it now the same as before, given that viewings are allowed.