European Parliament Elections 2019

realdanbreen · 07-03-2019 5:49pm

blanch152 wrote: »

I would guess that they are targetting one seat in Dublin - Frances Fitzgerald.

The advantage of Durkan is that he might pick up some curiousity votes, and if Fitzgerald has a surplus, it might take him in. Sort of a better class of a Cyprian Brady who gets a bit more.

Neither of the FG candidates will get elected.

blanch152 · 07-03-2019 5:56pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Neither of the FG candidates will get elected.

In a four-seat constituency, you need 20% of the vote to get elected. I cannot see FG failing to get to 20% in Dublin. The last Red C poll had them at 31% in Dublin.

An Ciarraioch · 07-03-2019 6:14pm

blanch152 wrote: »

In a four-seat constituency, you need 20% of the vote to get elected. I cannot see FG failing to get to 20% in Dublin. The last Red C poll had them at 31% in Dublin.

Indeed - one seat each guaranteed for FG, FF and SF, and possibly a centre-left party takes the last one.

L1011 · 07-03-2019 6:45pm

Last seat depends on how Ciaran Cuffe, SocDems if they can decide who to run (Gannon and McNally both suggested) and Alex White come in order after a few counts I'd guess.

I suspect the combined Solidarity PBP vote will be down significantly based on recent polling, plus the PBP candidate being a non-entity this time (and effectively calling their voters stupid on the Solidarity side)

An Ciarraioch · 07-03-2019 7:41pm

L1011 wrote: »

Last seat depends on how Ciaran Cuffe, SocDems if they can decide who to run (Gannon and McNally both suggested) and Alex White come in order after a few counts I'd guess.

I suspect the combined Solidarity PBP vote will be down significantly based on recent polling, plus the PBP candidate being a non-entity this time (and effectively calling their voters stupid on the Solidarity side)

Has been suggested by other parties that Gannon would have a decent prospect of success if he ran, as most of the others are from the southside.

L1011 · 07-03-2019 8:01pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Has been suggested by other parties that Gannon would have a decent prospect of success if he ran, as most of the others are from the southside.

If not Southside, they're posh Westside (Fitzgerald - who was South East originally anyway) which is probably just as "bad".

McNally has the ear of a leader and doesn't seem likely to want to give up the chance of running (from what is visible externally - not a member), so we could end up with a nasty media war over it. Running two when there's only the vaguest possibility of one seat really doesn't work - ask SF about East in 2009! When you've a good chance it can work as a sweeper of course, but they aren't that assured.

man98 · 08-03-2019 11:58am

L1011 wrote: »

If not Southside, they're posh Westside (Fitzgerald - who was South East originally anyway) which is probably just as "bad".

McNally has the ear of a leader and doesn't seem likely to want to give up the chance of running (from what is visible externally - not a member), so we could end up with a nasty media war over it. Running two when there's only the vaguest possibility of one seat really doesn't work - ask SF about East in 2009! When you've a good chance it can work as a sweeper of course, but they aren't that assured.

The Irish Times was suggesting McNally isn't interested in running any more. Their TDs are pissed off with Gannon for publicly making his intentions clear about running, and they haven't yet decided to run or not. I suspect that Cuffe will fail to connect with voters to the extent Eamon Ryan did, which I suggest leaves the seat open for Alex White, however that may change if Gannon doesn't run. I don't see any strong independent challenges, so it's a fight for the last seat. That said, there's very few guaranteed seats on offer here, and in 2014 Ryan could have won a seat, which meant 2/3 seats being centrist/left - alongside Childers. The next 2 months will be very interesting...

blanch152 · 08-03-2019 2:03pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed - one seat each guaranteed for FG, FF and SF, and possibly a centre-left party takes the last one.

I think the last seat could go anywhere. A candidate from one of the smaller parties who captures the moment could take it. A surge from FF or FG could squeeze them the second seat. It will be an interesting dog-fight, especially if the top candidates from the three main parties come close to 20% each in first preferences as there will be nearly 40% of the votes left for the last seat to go all over the place in transfers.

An Ciarraioch · 10-03-2019 3:28pm

Carles Puigdemont will run on a Catalan list for the European Parliament - of course, he's still in self-imposed exile in Belgium.

RandomName2 · 12-03-2019 10:11pm

murphaph wrote: »

Please encourage all your family, friends and acquaintances to make sure they are on the electoral register and to VOTE for candidates that are not Euroskeptic. I have registered to vote in my current place here in Germany and we need to keep the AfD out of the Europarl. Those of you in the UK should, in the event of an A50 extension and voting, try to convince people to vote for anyone but UKIP and other anti-EU parties.

What makes you believe that Euroskeptic parties threaten the groupings of either EPP or S&D? What makes you think that, even were Euroskeptic parties to get a majority (which they won't) that this would make a significant impact in any way other than as a morale boost for euroskeptic parties? There aren't even any euroskeptic parties in Ireland, unless you are including GUE/NGL among euroskeptic groupings, which, while there is an argument to be made for such, is not what I think you're aiming at.

murphaph wrote: »

It's the most important European elections in history I believe. There will be massive attempts at disinformation and targeted social media advertising right across the EU, paid for by you know who. As citizens of the EU we can reject these puppets of Putin.

Have you evidence to support Euroskeptic parties being a 5th column directly under the authority of the Kremlin, because in a forum about politics you'd usually be expected to back up such assertions.

THe S&D are the puppets of GeOrge SOroS

An Ciarraioch · 13-03-2019 5:11pm

Social Democrats will run a candidate in Dublin, with Philip O'Connor and Gary Gannon contesting the convention:

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2019/03/12/soc-dem-syndrome/

L1011 · 16-03-2019 9:40pm

Malcolm Byrne has beaten Kelleher in South, unexpectedly.

He tried to chat up my boyfriend a decade ago so I could never vote for him even if I lived in the area :pac:

An Ciarraioch · 16-03-2019 10:40pm

L1011 wrote: »

Malcolm Byrne has beaten Kelleher in South, unexpectedly.

He tried to chat up my boyfriend a decade ago so I could never vote for him even if I lived in the area :pac:

And Brendan Smith will bring youthful vigour to the Midlands/North-West ticket!

RainNeverBow · 19-03-2019 10:47pm

Gary Gannon officially selected for Soc Dems tonight

L1011 · 20-03-2019 9:32am

RainNeverBow wrote: »

Gary Gannon officially selected for Soc Dems tonight

Makes the fourth seat race much more interesting due to the aforementioned Northside element. Still think it'll be Cuffe Vs White from polling figures but if Gannon gets extra votes for being the "only" Northside option he could easily get clear

Cuffe does represent the Northside now also though - was Dun Laoghaire before

And if the last few elections have shown anything it's that trying to predict this constituency is impossible anyway!

L1011 · 01-04-2019 11:04am

Marian Harkin not running which opens that race up a bit. The other three are back safe I'd think anyway. FF will presumably see the 4th seat as theirs.

abcabc123123 · 01-04-2019 11:35am

L1011 wrote: »

Makes the fourth seat race much more interesting due to the aforementioned Northside element. Still think it'll be Cuffe Vs White from polling figures

What figures are these? Would be very interested to see...

L1011 · 01-04-2019 11:51am

abcabc123123 wrote: »

What figures are these? Would be very interested to see...

Was Adrian Kavanagh tweeting them a few weeks ago - trying to find them again now but its not that easy as he tweets quite a bit!

RainNeverBow · 04-04-2019 1:21pm

New Red C poll had Soc Dems and Labour joint 4th largest party in Dublin at 7% which means really it's Gannon versus White in which case I think Gannon takes it.

An Ciarraioch · 04-04-2019 1:44pm

RainNeverBow wrote: »

New Red C poll had Soc Dems and Labour joint 4th largest party in Dublin at 7% which means really it's Gannon versus White in which case I think Gannon takes it.

More likely to get Green transfers, one would think, given their joint Dáil grouping.

Infini · 05-04-2019 9:31pm

Whatever happen's I hope people don't simply just vote but pay some attention to WHO they vote. I honestly don't see it a good idea to elect FG or FF candidate's if they're gonna be out of tune with people or use it as a retirement home. Neither do I see it too good an idea to elect headbanger or populists too. Personally I'd be tempted to lean to the Social Democrat's or Labour to a lesser extent if at the least they'll get out and vote and represent people's views. The whole Brexit shenanigans and the like's of the far right troll armies should get people to actually keep a watch on the EU parliament it's actually quite relevant in the long term.

An Ciarraioch · 05-04-2019 9:44pm

Infini wrote: »

Whatever happen's I hope people don't simply just vote but pay some attention to WHO they vote. I honestly don't see it a good idea to elect FG or FF candidate's if they're gonna be out of tune with people or use it as a retirement home. Neither do I see it too good an idea to elect headbanger or populists too. Personally I'd be tempted to lean to the Social Democrat's or Labour to a lesser extent if at the least they'll get out and vote and represent people's views. The whole Brexit shenanigans and the like's of the far right troll armies should get people to actually keep a watch on the EU parliament it's actually quite relevant in the long term.

Based in South, so leaning towards the Greens, and Grace O'Sullivan - seems fairly active in the Seanad, and the Labour candidate is a non-descript former INTO president.

man98 · 05-04-2019 10:56pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Based in South, so leaning towards the Greens, and Grace O'Sullivan - seems fairly active in the Seanad, and the Labour candidate is a non-descript former INTO president.

Nunan is the current head of ICTU, she's certainly not some sort of washed up former union head. Very well connected to teachers across the country, and a pre made support base could make her candidacy a lot more viable. Labour had an awful outing, even by their standards, in 2014. Candidates were poor and times were tough for the party. I don't think there's a centre left seat up for grabs in Ireland South (as much as I'd like there to be), but I suspect that Nunan won't do too badly. However, the European campaign is not yet in full swing - things can change. Regarding Dublin, White has something which Cuffe definitely doesn't have, and something that Gannon doesn't have to the same extent - and that is working class support. Looking at exit polls from the Presidentials and the GE, Labour's support base is 50/50 middle class/ working class split. White should pull more transfers from the Northside than the SocDems or the Greens, and I suspect Gannon will be less tranfer friendly from FF/FG. Transfers will decide where the seat goes, and in 2019 they could be on Labour's side. That said, a good northside/ westside focused campaign by Gannon and the seat is his to lose.

L1011 · 06-04-2019 12:57pm

The SocDems internal war over Ellie Kisyombe being played out in the media may not have helped Gannon either. Rather ridiculous that it got the coverage it did

An Ciarraioch · 08-04-2019 1:16pm

Mary Alice Higgins confirms her European candidacy - will a fourth centre-left contender end up dividing the vote between them, with Durkan the beneficiary?

expectationlost · 08-04-2019 2:04pm

Rita Harold for SP/Solidarity https://twitter.com/RitaHarrold1/status/1114822771450757121

Dublin
https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/
Eamonn Murphy Hermann Kelly candidates

Candidates for European Election Midlands North-West
https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/

South https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/

L1011 · 08-04-2019 5:54pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Mary Alice Higgins confirms her European candidacy - will a fourth centre-left contender end up dividing the vote between them, with Durkan the beneficiary?

Would have to split so precisely and basically not transfer to each other for that to happen.

So it probably will!

OwenHanley · 09-04-2019 2:35pm

Hermann Kelly is officially running for Irexit. Has no chance. Should sharpen minds amongst left and increase turnout

NIMAN · 09-04-2019 2:41pm

OwenHanley wrote: »

Hermann Kelly is officially running for Irexit. Has no chance. Should sharpen minds amongst left and increase turnout

Would their fake news of recent times not also stand against them?

I'd say there is no appetite for an Irexit, except among a few thousand loons.

expectationlost · 09-04-2019 7:50pm

OwenHanley wrote: »

Hermann Kelly is officially running for Irexit. Has no chance. Should sharpen minds amongst left and increase turnout

not yet he isn't https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/ they still havn't registered the party https://www.irisoifigiuil.ie/currentissues/Ir090419.pdf

c.p.w.g.w · 10-04-2019 10:27am

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Fine Gael - European People's Party - Conservative pro EU

Can they really be deemed conservative, they brought about the marriage equality and repel of the 8th here in Ireland

An Ciarraioch · 10-04-2019 12:45pm

c.p.w.g.w wrote: »

Can they really be deemed conservative, they brought about the marriage equality and repel of the 8th here in Ireland

More that the EPP as a whole is conservative - CDU/CSU would be further along that scale than FG.

expectationlost · 10-04-2019 6:19pm

Rita Harrold Solidarity - People Before Profit and Barry Andrews FF added to Dublin parliamentary elections candidates list https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/

expectationlost · 10-04-2019 11:35pm

I noticed on the register under EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT – NAME OF POLITICAL GROUP
United people has "United People" as if its a European parliament political group https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_groups_of_the_European_Parliament https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/members/partyRegister/2019/2019-04-10_register-of-political-parties-10-april-2019_en.pdf

Shouldn't only groups that actually exist be listed there?

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf section 8

Where a party which is registered in the Register as a party organised to contest a European election, or which applies for such registration in the Register, informs the Registrar that a member of the party, being a representative in the European Parliament (whether by reason of his having been elected as such a representative in the State or having been nominated as a replacement candidate under the European Parliament Elections Act 1997), is a member of—(a)a political group formed in accordance with the rules of procedure of the European Parliament, or(b)a European political party established in accordance with Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 1141/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 October 2014 on the statute and funding of European political parties and European political foundations,the Registrar shall, if that member certifies in writing to the Registrar that he is a member of that party and that political group or that European political party, note on the Register, in relation to the party,the name of that political group or that European political party.

see previous http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2001/act/38/section/11/enacted/en/html#sec11
Secondly should Socialists and Democrats Group be listed next to Labour on the register of political parties when it has no MEPs, see http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2019/act/7/section/8/enacted/en/html?q=%22european+political+party%22&search_type=all

find it hard to know if Im right as there is no consolidated version of the oft change electoral acts

also it was pointed out to me that Fianna Fail listed as ALDE when Brian Crowley is in ECRG http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/2109/BRIAN_CROWLEY/home

An Ciarraioch · 10-04-2019 11:41pm

expectationlost wrote: »

I noticed on the register under EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT – NAME OF POLITICAL GROUP
United people has "United People" as if its a European parliament political group https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/members/partyRegister/2019/2019-04-10_register-of-political-parties-10-april-2019_en.pdf

Shouldn't only groups that actually exist be listed there?

https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf

Secondly should Socialists and Democrats Groupbe listed next to Labour on the register of political parties when it has no MEPs, see http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2019/act/7/section/8/enacted/en/html?q=%22european+political+party%22&search_type=all

find it hard to know if Im right as there is no consolidated version of the oft change electoral acts

also it was pointed out to me that Fianna Fail listed as ALDE when Brian Crowley is in ECRG http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/2109/BRIAN_CROWLEY/home

Labour remains affiliated to PES, regardless of its seat numbers, similarly the FF party itself is a full member of ALDE.

expectationlost · 10-04-2019 11:48pm

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Labour remains affiliated to PES, regardless of its seat numbers, similarly the FF party itself is a full member of ALDE.

PES is a party not a group the section in the register was for groups. PES is not listed there and couldn't be as they have no MEPs

European Parliament Elections (Amendment) Act 2019
https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf

Where a party which is registered in the Register as a party organised to contest a European election, or which applies for such registration in the Register, informs the Registrar that a member of the party, being a representative in the European Parliament (whether by reason of his having been elected as such a representative in the State or having been nominated as a replacement candidate under the European Parliament Elections Act 1997), is a member of—(a)a political group formed in accordance with the rules of procedure of the European Parliament, or(b)a European political party established in accordance with Regulation (EU, Euratom) No 1141/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 22 October 2014 on the statute and funding of European political parties and European political foundations,the Registrar shall, if that member certifies in writing to the Registrar that he is a member of that party and that political group or that European political party, note on the Register, in relation to the party,the name of that political group or that European political party.

Itssoeasy · 11-04-2019 12:02am

So now that it looks like the UK will be staying in the EU until October the 31st then they will have to contest the EU elections which means the last seat in Dublin and Munster which we got on the assumption the U.K. would have left won't happen now.

expectationlost · 11-04-2019 12:56am

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So now that it looks like the UK will be staying in the EU until October the 31st then they will have to contest the EU elections which means the last seat in Dublin and Munster which we got on the assumption the U.K. would have left won't happen now.

don't see where in the recent bill this was addressed https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf seems like gov will have to publish another bill, the suggestion isase there are two counts to sort out who is actually shelved https://politicalreformireland.wordpress.com/2019/02/22/how-should-irelands-meps-be-elected-amidst-brexit-uncertainty/

good thread on it here https://twitter.com/antoin/status/1114569999254020097

L1011 · 11-04-2019 10:27am

Casey to target Ming's seat specifically. Massively different politics but there will be an element of anti-mainstream-politician in Ming's vote base that could go over.

Would be hilarious if they split so badly that neither got in but it's not likely

blanch152 · 11-04-2019 10:56am

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Indeed - one seat each guaranteed for FG, FF and SF, and possibly a centre-left party takes the last one.

I think I heard Ivan Yates on the radio yesterday suggesting that FF are only on 14% in Dublin. If that is so, the race will be interesting. That is an awful long way short of the 25% needed if there are only three seats, and the 20% needed if there are four.

Sinn Fein are stronger in Dublin than elsewhere, so should pick up a seat, meaning the first two go to SF and FG. If there are 4, FF should get one of the others, but would be in a dogfight for the last if there are only 3.

expectationlost · 11-04-2019 12:26pm

Midlands northwest European candidates nominations now coming in https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/ nominations Dilip Mahapatra a Dundalk based doctor who went for the Fianna Fail nomination is running as an Independent https://www.talkofthetown.ie/dundalk-doctor-bidding-for-fianna-fail-nomination-for-european-elections/ https://www.facebook.com/1505160289615275/photos/rpp.1505160289615275/1505884716209499/?type=3&theater

seligehgit · 11-04-2019 7:29pm

L1011 wrote: »

Marian Harkin not running which opens that race up a bit. The other three are back safe I'd think anyway. FF will presumably see the 4th seat as theirs.

Is Luke Flanagan likely to be re elected?TBH I'd be shocked,what exactly has he done for the last 5 years?

He's kept a remarkably low profile.

I'd have a higher expectation Casey would be elected on the topical rural urban divide platform.

I note Casey wants us to leave the EU,big no no for me.

nice_guy80 · 11-04-2019 7:45pm

seligehgit wrote: »

Is Luke Flanagan likely to be re elected?TBH I'd be shocked,what exactly has he done for the last 5 years?

He's kept a remarkably low profile.

I'd have a higher expectation Casey would be elected on the topical rural urban divide platform.

I note Casey wants us to leave the EU,big no no for me.

Ming will probably top the poll.

L1011 · 11-04-2019 8:21pm

seligehgit wrote: »

Is Luke Flanagan likely to be re elected?TBH I'd be shocked,what exactly has he done for the last 5 years?

He's kept a remarkably low profile.

I'd have a higher expectation Casey would be elected on the topical rural urban divide platform.

I note Casey wants us to leave the EU,big no no for me.

What did Harkin do to get re-elected every time? Still got in. Name and/or memories of what was believed to have been achieved as a TD/Cllr does the work for Europe usually.

Without Casey Ming would be home and dry. With Casey its anyones guess, as despite their nearly totally incompatible politics they would both appeal to people who vote for "not a politician".

nice_guy80 · 11-04-2019 10:14pm

L1011 wrote: »

What did Harkin do to get re-elected every time? Still got in. Name and/or memories of what was believed to have been achieved as a TD/Cllr does the work for Europe usually.

Without Casey Ming would be home and dry. With Casey its anyones guess, as despite their nearly totally incompatible politics they would both appeal to people who vote for "not a politician".

Casey will be eliminated early and his transfers will go to Ming

L1011 · 11-04-2019 10:20pm

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Casey will be eliminated early and his transfers will go to Ming

I really wouldn't be that certain. He got >30% in the Presidential in some of the constituencies that make up the Euro constituency.

nice_guy80 · 12-04-2019 7:51am

L1011 wrote: »

I really wouldn't be that certain. He got >30% in the Presidential in some of the constituencies that make up the Euro constituency.

that's fine.
but now he actually has to go out and campaign on a few issues.

issues relevant to the EU and Ireland.

luckily, there are no traveller housing issues out in Luxembourg which affect us

Manach · 12-04-2019 7:58am

For me the EU elections would be in context of the recent Copyright "reforms" and the continuing clamp down on fair usage online. From reading books such as Copyright Wars by William Party, those MEPs who voted in favour of these changes have placed over-regulation and very large business entities interests over those of innovators and the general public. So this will influence my own vote.

nice_guy80 · 12-04-2019 8:14am

Manach wrote: »

For me the EU elections would be in context of the recent Copyright "reforms" and the continuing clamp down on fair usage online. From reading books such as Copyright Wars by William Party, those MEPs who voted in favour of these changes have placed over-regulation and very large business entities interests over those of innovators and the general public. So this will influence my own vote.

look at what Irish parties votes for and against

blanch152 · 12-04-2019 8:59am

Manach wrote: »

For me the EU elections would be in context of the recent Copyright "reforms" and the continuing clamp down on fair usage online. From reading books such as Copyright Wars by William Party, those MEPs who voted in favour of these changes have placed over-regulation and very large business entities interests over those of innovators and the general public. So this will influence my own vote.

I don't think this issue will feature much in the debate, it will be very much on the fringe.

European Parliament Elections 2019

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