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European Parliament Elections 2019

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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    [QUOTE=murphaph;109975942]Polling card arrived yesterday so that's one less vote for the AfD in a constituency that votes far too much for them.[/QUOTE]

    Really? Didn’t think that could be done until all candidates declared.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Hard to know what to make of polls when two on the same night are so wildly at variance!

    https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1119631815516381184

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1119659746141921280


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,707 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    MFPM wrote: »
    There was a poll that put at her at 20% but I doubt its veracity. It is an overstatement to say she'll sail into a seat but you're as guilty for under playing her chances with sketchy enough evidence.



    So what? Lynn Boylan was eliminated on the first countin Kerry south in 2007 and couldn't get elected to the council in 2009 - she then topped the poll in Dublin in 2014 with 23% of the vote.



    I think you've got this wrong. IMO Daly will be one of the most transfer friendly candidates in the field. She'll get big transfers from the array of 'left' candidates - Harrold, Ryan, Gannon, White, Brien - but she'll get transfers from FG too - she'll be far more transfer friendly than Sinn Fein.



    So you're assuming FF will definitely win a seat? I think Boylan and Daly can and will win with Andrews finishing 4th and will take up a seat if Brexit goes ahead.

    I think Daly and Boylan are fighting for the same field of first preferences - both are strong candidates but they’ll damage each other’s first preference meaning both transfers and the order of other candidates being eliminated will become important.

    I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back. Could well be wrong - but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

    I see Fitzgerald taking the first seat. Beyond that I wouldn’t be surprised at any of Boylan, Daly, Andrews, Durkan or (as a dark horse) Higgins.

    If the greens had a more likeable candidate than Cuffe I’d have them in with a shout either


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭MFPM


    blackwhite wrote: »
    I think Daly and Boylan are fighting for the same field of first preferences - both are strong candidates but they’ll damage each other’s first preference meaning both transfers and the order of other candidates being eliminated will become important.

    I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back. Could well be wrong - but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

    I see Fitzgerald taking the first seat. Beyond that I wouldn’t be surprised at any of Boylan, Daly, Andrews, Durkan or (as a dark horse) Higgins.

    If the greens had a more likeable candidate than Cuffe I’d have them in with a shout either
    I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back.

    Given that the Solidarity/SP are less than 1% in polls, I'd suggest she'll manage. Given that it's seven years since she was a member of said party and her support and profile since then has increased - you'll note she , it won't be too much of an issue, in fact it won't be an issue at all. You also confuse the attitude of SP voters and the attitude of some SP members.
    Could well be wrong

    I think that has already been proven.
    but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

    Do you always apply such reductive analysis to politics? Is that it with Mick Wallace - we reduce his political legacy to something that predates his political career and ignore everything else? Do you apply the same approach to failed business woman Regina Doherty and her unpaid bills?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,796 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    Surprising that the Soc Dems still haven't declared which European grouping they would sit with, if elected - the European Socialists seem the obvious option, but some centre-left parties are members of the Green bloc.
    Clare Daly said she thinks the groups will shift and move with all the new populists after May so she's waiting to see, I imagine it's the same logic. Also other parties can block them join EP parties

    she said NUE GL probably https://player.fm/series/irish-times-inside-politics/this-is-not-a-retirement-clare-daly-on-running-for-europe but unless your are already in a group there no great point to it until you actually have MEPs


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,907 ✭✭✭Stephen15


    Ile be voting for Hermann Kelly or Ben Gilroy unfortunately neither are likely to win but they're the only two who will stand up to the political elite. I don't support Irexit if given a choice I'd vote for the National Party but Irexit appear to be the only party that will feed candidates who are anti mass immigration which I am against strongly. I wish there was a party like the League in Italy with a leader like Salvini.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,499 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Hermann Kelly is part of the political elite.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,907 ✭✭✭Stephen15


    L1011 wrote: »
    Hermann Kelly is part of the political elite.

    How so he is not part of the FF, FG, Liebour, SF mafia like the rest of them. Ok maybe broadly speaking but that's like saying Salvini or Le Pen are also part of the political elite point they don't consent to the view of the political elite. One thing they can all agree on is the support of mass immigration.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭WinnyThePoo


    Hermann is part of the elite. Its funny how himself and Farage sell themselves as...'men of the people'.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,707 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    MFPM wrote: »
    Given that the Solidarity/SP are less than 1% in polls, I'd suggest she'll manage. Given that it's seven years since she was a member of said party and her support and profile since then has increased - you'll note she , it won't be too much of an issue, in fact it won't be an issue at all. You also confuse the attitude of SP voters and the attitude of some SP members.



    I think that has already been proven.



    Do you always apply such reductive analysis to politics? Is that it with Mick Wallace - we reduce his political legacy to something that predates his political career and ignore everything else? Do you apply the same approach to failed business woman Regina Doherty and her unpaid bills?

    The fact that you try to equate Regina Dohertys business failure to Mick Wallace’s multiple frauds tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your “analysis” tbh.

    Regina Doherty didn’t misappropriate anyone’s pension contributions - nor did she lie on tax returns.

    (She didn’t transfer a load of Italian properties to family members to keep them away from creditors either)


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  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,167 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Stephen15 wrote: »
    How so he is not part of the FF, FG, Liebour, SF mafia like the rest of them. Ok maybe broadly speaking but that's like saying Salvini or Le Pen are also part of the political elite point they don't consent to the view of the political elite. One thing they can all agree on is the support of mass immigration.

    Enough of the childish name calling please. Serious discussion only.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭MFPM


    blackwhite wrote: »
    The fact that you try to equate Regina Dohertys business failure to Mick Wallace’s multiple frauds tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your “analysis” tbh.

    Regina Doherty didn’t misappropriate anyone’s pension contributions - nor did she lie on tax returns.

    (She didn’t transfer a load of Italian properties to family members to keep them away from creditors either)

    Interesting that you didn't engage with any of my 'analysis' instead you focused on Deputy Wallace again and excused Deputy Doherty which using your logic 'tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your 'analysis'...


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭MFPM


    Stephen15 wrote: »
    Ile be voting for Hermann Kelly or Ben Gilroy unfortunately neither are likely to win but they're the only two who will stand up to the political elite. I don't support Irexit if given a choice I'd vote for the National Party but Irexit appear to be the only party that will feed candidates who are anti mass immigration which I am against strongly. I wish there was a party like the League in Italy with a leader like Salvini.

    So you're looking for an anti immigrant, far right party? But you're right idiots who stand on such platforms will bomb at the euros thankfully.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,707 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    MFPM wrote: »
    Interesting that you didn't engage with any of my 'analysis' instead you focused on Deputy Wallace again and excused Deputy Doherty which using your logic 'tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your 'analysis'...

    Businesses fail. That’s an unfortunate fact of the world we live in. Doherty and Wallace took very different approaches to dealing with business failure. One followed the law and the other wilfully defrauded both the state and their employees. That you try to pretend that there’s no difference between the two is quite the reflection on how you will make excuses for criminality if it suits your politics. Shameful stuff really.

    Typical of the supporters of the hard left in this country - criminality is fine so long as it’s our side doing it; screw the taxpayer and the workers so long as it’s our side doing it. Disgusting attitude.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 38,167 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Mod: Please don't post exactly the same thing across multiple threads. A post has been deleted.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 27,438 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    blackwhite wrote: »
    I think Daly and Boylan are fighting for the same field of first preferences - both are strong candidates but they’ll damage each other’s first preference meaning both transfers and the order of other candidates being eliminated will become important.

    I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back. Could well be wrong - but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

    I see Fitzgerald taking the first seat. Beyond that I wouldn’t be surprised at any of Boylan, Daly, Andrews, Durkan or (as a dark horse) Higgins.

    If the greens had a more likeable candidate than Cuffe I’d have them in with a shout either


    Pretty much spot on. It is getting very hard to predict who, other than Fitzgerald will be elected in Dublin. I see Durkan as an outside chance, because it is difficult to see FG taking two, but so many candidates split the vote that he might just pick up enough transfers. Who stays in after the third or fourth count will be crucial.
    blackwhite wrote: »
    The fact that you try to equate Regina Dohertys business failure to Mick Wallace’s multiple frauds tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your “analysis” tbh.

    Regina Doherty didn’t misappropriate anyone’s pension contributions - nor did she lie on tax returns.

    (She didn’t transfer a load of Italian properties to family members to keep them away from creditors either)

    Mick Wallace, Lowry and the Healy-Raes share a common gene pool of rural Irish gombeenism, otherwise known as cute hoorism. How anyone could vote for them is beyond me. He ripped off his own workers, the taxpayer, and his creditors, yet is still revered by many left-wing ideologues. Baffling.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭man98


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Mick Wallace, Lowry and the Healy-Raes share a common gene pool of rural Irish gombeenism, otherwise known as cute hoorism. How anyone could vote for them is beyond me. He ripped off his own workers, the taxpayer, and his creditors, yet is still revered by many left-wing ideologues. Baffling.

    Reason #1 that people continue to misunderstand the likes of Wallace is, as seen above, they try to put them into a box. I don't like Wallace, he cheated the people of this country, he cheated his own voters, his own subcontractors - as with Lowry. Everyone knows this. However, Wallace isn't a 'politician' - by extension, Wallace is not left or right wing. Wallace is the Irish equivalent of the Pirate Party, he purports to stand for the little guy against the mighty corporations and against the government. Economically and socially he's populist, but also takes classic libertarian positions on most issues (not that he'd be seen dead near the likes of Together for Yes.) It is exactly this that sets him apart from the clientele-ist gombeen politics across the country and it is exactly this that will see him come close to taking a seat in Ireland South. He's a loose cannon, but quite the opposite of a cute hoor. While his vote will be slightly stronger in Wexford, he'll sweep up transfers from non-conforming independents and small parties across the board. It's his refusal to talk local politics and to do parish pump that will see him sweep up votes from everyone between PBP and Irexit's candidate in Ireland South. The same will be true of Clare Daly in Dublin - who I suspect will be considerably more successful than poor aul Mick.

    33 days from polling day, I see Kelleher topping the poll, Sean Kelly and Liadh Ní Ríada taking the next two seats (Ní Ríada on a reduced vote, splintered across smaller candidates). Clune should take the 4th seat, with a battle between Sheila Nunan, Mick Wallace and Malcolm Byrne for the last seat - as unlikely as it sounds. I suspect Nunan could edge it, significantly outperforming what many people expect.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,438 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    man98 wrote: »
    Reason #1 that people continue to misunderstand the likes of Wallace is, as seen above, they try to put them into a box. I don't like Wallace, he cheated the people of this country, he cheated his own voters, his own subcontractors - as with Lowry. Everyone knows this. However, Wallace isn't a 'politician' - by extension, Wallace is not left or right wing. Wallace is the Irish equivalent of the Pirate Party, he purports to stand for the little guy against the mighty corporations and against the government. Economically and socially he's populist, but also takes classic libertarian positions on most issues (not that he'd be seen dead near the likes of Together for Yes.) It is exactly this that sets him apart from the clientele-ist gombeen politics across the country and it is exactly this that will see him come close to taking a seat in Ireland South. He's a loose cannon, but quite the opposite of a cute hoor. While his vote will be slightly stronger in Wexford, he'll sweep up transfers from non-conforming independents and small parties across the board. It's his refusal to talk local politics and to do parish pump that will see him sweep up votes from everyone between PBP and Irexit's candidate in Ireland South. The same will be true of Clare Daly in Dublin - who I suspect will be considerably more successful than poor aul Mick.

    33 days from polling day, I see Kelleher topping the poll, Sean Kelly and Liadh Ní Ríada taking the next two seats (Ní Ríada on a reduced vote, splintered across smaller candidates). Clune should take the 4th seat, with a battle between Sheila Nunan, Mick Wallace and Malcolm Byrne for the last seat - as unlikely as it sounds. I suspect Nunan could edge it, significantly outperforming what many people expect.

    I actually agree with you about Nunan, the teachers vote is grossly underestimated. The teacher conferences next week provide her with a great platform.

    I don't like charlatans - and Mick Wallace is one of the biggest ones - and that tends to cloud me from his vote-getting ability, but I really don't see him winning the seat.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Stephen15 wrote: »
    Ile be voting for Hermann Kelly or Ben Gilroy unfortunately neither are likely to win but they're the only two who will stand up to the political elite. I don't support Irexit if given a choice I'd vote for the National Party but Irexit appear to be the only party that will feed candidates who are anti mass immigration which I am against strongly. I wish there was a party like the League in Italy with a leader like Salvini.
    It's one of the few things that makes me proud to be Irish that we don't have such parties.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    The far-right is joining forces ahead of the European elections, with Salvini's Lega joined by the AfD, Le Pen's National Rally, Austria's Freedom Party and the Danish People's Party:

    https://m.dw.com/en/frances-far-right-national-rally-joins-salvinis-european-alliance/a-48411442


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  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭RainNeverBow


    The far-right is joining forces ahead of the European elections, with Salvini's Lega joined by the AfD, Le Pen's National Rally, Austria's Freedom Party and the Danish People's Party:

    https://m.dw.com/en/frances-far-right-national-rally-joins-salvinis-european-alliance/a-48411442

    Nationalist populists who will tear each other apart when the natural contradiction of being in a European bloc sets in


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    So, Peter Casey wants to seize empty rural homes, give out free breathalysers and bring back the punt - the property angle alone would seem politically toxic throughout rural Ireland!

    http://twitter.com/emmajhade/status/1120229413159866373


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭WinnyThePoo


    So, Peter Casey wants to seize empty rural homes, give out free breathalysers and bring back the punt - the property angle alone would seem politically toxic throughout rural Ireland!

    http://twitter.com/emmajhade/status/1120229413159866373
    Like his presidency run. He seems to be making it up as he goes along.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,112 ✭✭✭Blowfish


    So, Peter Casey wants to seize empty rural homes, give out free breathalysers and bring back the punt - the property angle alone would seem politically toxic throughout rural Ireland!

    http://twitter.com/emmajhade/status/1120229413159866373
    The only part of that relevant to his role as an MEP, is bringing back the Punt, which is a pretty stupid idea really.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,438 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    So, Peter Casey wants to seize empty rural homes, give out free breathalysers and bring back the punt - the property angle alone would seem politically toxic throughout rural Ireland!

    http://twitter.com/emmajhade/status/1120229413159866373


    I would guess that he wants to seize empty holiday homes, that would go down well in parts of rural Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,499 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Considering he wasn't tax-resident here, would his own Irish house have been seized as a second home?


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    So, Peter Casey wants to seize empty rural homes, give out free breathalysers and bring back the punt - the property angle alone would seem politically toxic throughout rural Ireland!

    http://twitter.com/emmajhade/status/1120229413159866373

    The old Oscar Wilde maxim at work - There is only one thing in life worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about. As expected though more off the cuff ... eh policies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Is it tomorrow that the posters can be put up? Gavan Reilly clarifies that it is indeed tonight, from midnight onwards:

    http://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1120721134738190336


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,635 ✭✭✭Charlie-Bravo


    Could it be seen that if the elections for the UK MEPs show a majority of remainers being voted in, that this will be a huge turning point for the Brexit process?

    For the brexiteers, it would make sense for them to be voted in to continue their efforts in leaving.

    -. . ...- . .-. / --. --- -. -. .- / --. .. ...- . / -.-- --- ..- / ..- .--.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,804 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    astrofluff wrote: »
    Could it be seen that if the elections for the UK MEPs show a majority of remainers being voted in, that this will be a huge turning point for the Brexit process?

    For the brexiteers, it would make sense for them to be voted in to continue their efforts in leaving.

    It would be ideal, but the problem is that the Greens, Lib Dems and CHUK are all practically level, making it impossible for Remainers to assess how to vote tactically, even by region.


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