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European Parliament Elections 2019

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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,795 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    So I like the idea of pan european parties. Specifically, I like the idea that the existing candidates would run under the banner of their European Parliament Grouping rather than their domestic party.

    So we have:
    Fine Gael - European People's Party
    Labour - Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats
    Fianna Fail - Alliance of Liberals and Democrats
    Greens - Greens
    Sinn Feinn - GUE/NGL



    so as you point out we already have pan European parties, what we lack is pan European issues debated in our European elections...


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,425 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Story in Irish times that Brian Crowley is to hold a press conference on thurs to discuss his future plans

    FF say no way will he be rejoining them

    Crowley has attended precisely zero parliament sessions over this term. Blames ill health.

    If anyone votes for him they deserve what they get.


  • Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭breatheme


    If Brexit gets postponed, what should the EU do with the new seat distribution? Or the UK for that matter?

    Can the UK agree to extend the withdrawal date and also agree to not hold elections (e.g. via a vote of Parliament stating that the UK won't contest those elections?)

    Or the other alternative I see viable is that the UK gets its seats and the other countries used their numbers after redistribution. Once the UK formally leaves, those seats become vacant.

    The third alternative is messy: holding the elections with the previous seat distribution, and once the UK formally leaves holding elections again for the vacant seats in the other countries.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    It has already been suggested that they would run the elections to the previously announced 'new' seat count, then furlough the additional MEPs from the EU27 and reinstate them when (if) the UK leaves. This would be the last elected in Dublin and South basically. This would be vastly fairer from a proportional representation basis than running by-elections later on. Considering they don't even do by-elections normally (using subs lists) to preserve proportionality I doubt they'd want to bring them in.

    Who those end up being is anybodies guess as there are so many retirements, new candidates, changes in transfer patterns etc even if the polling figures are actually strikingly similar to 2014. Can't see FF retaining close to the Crowley augmented figure in South, can't see Solidarity-PBP getting 15% between them in Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 375 ✭✭breatheme


    That could work if there is a definite leaving date I guess. Otherwise those candidates might move on with their lives and enter other endeavours.

    Also, is anyone thinking about volunteering with the #thistimeimvoting campaign? I just signed up today.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Tangential to this, I just got a market research survey which was clearly FF trying to test the appetite for their position on this, basically whether to run on actual European issues (which they have never done before) or revert to parish pump (as they and most of the rest always have).

    Also whether tying themselves to En Marche, if they join ALDE, is a good idea or not.
    breatheme wrote: »
    That could work if there is a definite leaving date I guess. Otherwise those candidates might move on with their lives and enter other endeavours.

    Also, is anyone thinking about volunteering with the #thistimeimvoting campaign? I just signed up today.

    They'll have named subs lists when running, so even if they don't want it when un-furloughed someone else will get their seat.

    I've never not voted in anything I was eligible for so that'd be a slightly disingenuous hashtag for me :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    L1011 wrote: »
    Tangential to this, I just got a market research survey which was clearly FF trying to test the appetite for their position on this, basically whether to run on actual European issues (which they have never done before) or revert to parish pump (as they and most of the rest always have).

    Also whether tying themselves to En Marche, if they join ALDE, is a good idea or not.



    They'll have named subs lists when running, so even if they don't want it when un-furloughed someone else will get their seat.

    I've never not voted in anything I was eligible for so that'd be a slightly disingenuous hashtag for me :pac:

    ALDE would seem the least problematic group for FF, given some of the unlikely bedfellows in either the EPP (Fidesz), or the ECR (Swedish Democrats, Law and Justice).


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    That was more about the potential of En Marche joining ALDE than FF, who never left it despite Crowley's alleged change of allegiance. En Marche have said they will but haven't actually done so yet.

    The EPP would have been the most sensible, back when this was an issue originally, except FG got there first I believe?


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    breatheme wrote: »
    If Brexit gets postponed, what should the EU do with the new seat distribution? Or the UK for that matter?

    Can the UK agree to extend the withdrawal date and also agree to not hold elections (e.g. via a vote of Parliament stating that the UK won't contest those elections?)

    Or the other alternative I see viable is that the UK gets its seats and the other countries used their numbers after redistribution. Once the UK formally leaves, those seats become vacant.

    The third alternative is messy: holding the elections with the previous seat distribution, and once the UK formally leaves holding elections again for the vacant seats in the other countries.
    The UK can go up to July 2nd without officially leaving, when the next parliament will sit for the first time, without any issue. If they extend beyond that they have to run the Euro elections in May.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    So we now have a sizeable enough number of FG and FF TDs either selected, seeking selection or rumoured to be interested. Frances Fitzgerald, Brendan Smith, Billy Kelleher, Marcella Corcoran-Kennedy.

    If any of these win, particularly the FG ones, they are effectively reliant on the by-elections being won by FF or FG - or else the confidence and supply agreement may not be sufficient to keep FG/IA in.

    By-elections throw up odd results, particularly if there isn't a candidate-in-waiting from the party that has vacated; and even more so if there is an obvious candidate for someone else. Kathleen Lynch would take a substantial number of votes in Cork North Central for instance.

    So as well as being rather more important for Europe than many previous elections, this one could cause a GE here within a few months also.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 67 ✭✭RainNeverBow


    Have heard some politicans say that if any by-elections have to happen they'll just have a general election instead. Partly to do with what you had just said about.

    Some politicans have even been saying an a ge on May 24th is still possible (which I think is crazy) but I think makes a by-election/general less so


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Andrew Doyle selected for the third candidate in South, not Corcoran Kennedy. Dangerous constituency to risk a by election in too.

    Being able to "blame" a GE on the election results would give cover to not being seen to break the confidence and supply deal; seeing as neither party want it anymore but the public don't want an election


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,421 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-runs-former-sdlp-leader-mark-durkan-for-european-elections-in-dublin-37876506.html

    Mark Durkan joins FG and runs in the European elections.

    We will have some posters spluttering over this.

    We have had the precedents of Austin Curries and Gerry Adams moving south to take Dail seats, but this will be interesting.


  • Registered Users Posts: 401 ✭✭holidaysong


    I take it he wasn't in favour of the partnership with FF then?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,300 ✭✭✭✭jm08


    blanch152 wrote: »
    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-runs-former-sdlp-leader-mark-durkan-for-european-elections-in-dublin-37876506.html

    Mark Durkan joins FG and runs in the European elections.

    We will have some posters spluttering over this.

    We have had the precedents of Austin Curries and Gerry Adams moving south to take Dail seats, but this will be interesting.


    Actually, a good move in the Brexit mayhem - depending on what happens, he could represent the NI or ROI, so there won't be a problem in having standby candidates.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    blanch152 wrote: »
    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-runs-former-sdlp-leader-mark-durkan-for-european-elections-in-dublin-37876506.html

    Mark Durkan joins FG and runs in the European elections.

    We will have some posters spluttering over this.

    We have had the precedents of Austin Curries and Gerry Adams moving south to take Dail seats, but this will be interesting.

    And John Cushnahan from Alliance, also. Only for Matt Carthy returning to the fray, Martina Anderson would surely have declared in Midlands North-West.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,456 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    blanch152 wrote: »
    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fine-gael-runs-former-sdlp-leader-mark-durkan-for-european-elections-in-dublin-37876506.html

    Mark Durkan joins FG and runs in the European elections.

    We will have some posters spluttering over this.

    We have had the precedents of Austin Curries and Gerry Adams moving south to take Dail seats, but this will be interesting.

    An odd choice , free to put fireward who they want. But I certainly would not be voting from him. I believe a candidate should be familiar with the area before he proposes to represent them


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    When I saw the news alert, which just had the surname, I thought the incumbent TD for Kildare North had decided to run, which would be rather odd!


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,421 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    L1011 wrote: »
    When I saw the news alert, which just had the surname, I thought the incumbent TD for Kildare North had decided to run, which would be rather odd!


    I would guess that they are targetting one seat in Dublin - Frances Fitzgerald.

    The advantage of Durkan is that he might pick up some curiousity votes, and if Fitzgerald has a surplus, it might take him in. Sort of a better class of a Cyprian Brady who gets a bit more.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,018 ✭✭✭✭murphaph


    Please encourage all your family, friends and acquaintances to make sure they are on the electoral register and to VOTE for candidates that are not Euroskeptic. I have registered to vote in my current place here in Germany and we need to keep the AfD out of the Europarl. Those of you in the UK should, in the event of an A50 extension and voting, try to convince people to vote for anyone but UKIP and other anti-EU parties. It's the most important European elections in history I believe. There will be massive attempts at disinformation and targeted social media advertising right across the EU, paid for by you know who. As citizens of the EU we can reject these puppets of Putin.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 8,169 ✭✭✭realdanbreen


    blanch152 wrote: »
    I would guess that they are targetting one seat in Dublin - Frances Fitzgerald.

    The advantage of Durkan is that he might pick up some curiousity votes, and if Fitzgerald has a surplus, it might take him in. Sort of a better class of a Cyprian Brady who gets a bit more.


    Neither of the FG candidates will get elected.


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,421 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Neither of the FG candidates will get elected.


    In a four-seat constituency, you need 20% of the vote to get elected. I cannot see FG failing to get to 20% in Dublin. The last Red C poll had them at 31% in Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    blanch152 wrote: »
    In a four-seat constituency, you need 20% of the vote to get elected. I cannot see FG failing to get to 20% in Dublin. The last Red C poll had them at 31% in Dublin.

    Indeed - one seat each guaranteed for FG, FF and SF, and possibly a centre-left party takes the last one.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Last seat depends on how Ciaran Cuffe, SocDems if they can decide who to run (Gannon and McNally both suggested) and Alex White come in order after a few counts I'd guess.

    I suspect the combined Solidarity PBP vote will be down significantly based on recent polling, plus the PBP candidate being a non-entity this time (and effectively calling their voters stupid on the Solidarity side)


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    L1011 wrote: »
    Last seat depends on how Ciaran Cuffe, SocDems if they can decide who to run (Gannon and McNally both suggested) and Alex White come in order after a few counts I'd guess.

    I suspect the combined Solidarity PBP vote will be down significantly based on recent polling, plus the PBP candidate being a non-entity this time (and effectively calling their voters stupid on the Solidarity side)

    Has been suggested by other parties that Gannon would have a decent prospect of success if he ran, as most of the others are from the southside.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68,492 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Has been suggested by other parties that Gannon would have a decent prospect of success if he ran, as most of the others are from the southside.

    If not Southside, they're posh Westside (Fitzgerald - who was South East originally anyway) which is probably just as "bad".

    McNally has the ear of a leader and doesn't seem likely to want to give up the chance of running (from what is visible externally - not a member), so we could end up with a nasty media war over it. Running two when there's only the vaguest possibility of one seat really doesn't work - ask SF about East in 2009! When you've a good chance it can work as a sweeper of course, but they aren't that assured.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,194 ✭✭✭man98


    L1011 wrote: »
    If not Southside, they're posh Westside (Fitzgerald - who was South East originally anyway) which is probably just as "bad".

    McNally has the ear of a leader and doesn't seem likely to want to give up the chance of running (from what is visible externally - not a member), so we could end up with a nasty media war over it. Running two when there's only the vaguest possibility of one seat really doesn't work - ask SF about East in 2009! When you've a good chance it can work as a sweeper of course, but they aren't that assured.

    The Irish Times was suggesting McNally isn't interested in running any more. Their TDs are pissed off with Gannon for publicly making his intentions clear about running, and they haven't yet decided to run or not. I suspect that Cuffe will fail to connect with voters to the extent Eamon Ryan did, which I suggest leaves the seat open for Alex White, however that may change if Gannon doesn't run. I don't see any strong independent challenges, so it's a fight for the last seat. That said, there's very few guaranteed seats on offer here, and in 2014 Ryan could have won a seat, which meant 2/3 seats being centrist/left - alongside Childers. The next 2 months will be very interesting...


  • Registered Users Posts: 27,421 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Indeed - one seat each guaranteed for FG, FF and SF, and possibly a centre-left party takes the last one.


    I think the last seat could go anywhere. A candidate from one of the smaller parties who captures the moment could take it. A surge from FF or FG could squeeze them the second seat. It will be an interesting dog-fight, especially if the top candidates from the three main parties come close to 20% each in first preferences as there will be nearly 40% of the votes left for the last seat to go all over the place in transfers.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,803 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Carles Puigdemont will run on a Catalan list for the European Parliament - of course, he's still in self-imposed exile in Belgium.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,570 ✭✭✭RandomName2


    murphaph wrote: »
    Please encourage all your family, friends and acquaintances to make sure they are on the electoral register and to VOTE for candidates that are not Euroskeptic. I have registered to vote in my current place here in Germany and we need to keep the AfD out of the Europarl. Those of you in the UK should, in the event of an A50 extension and voting, try to convince people to vote for anyone but UKIP and other anti-EU parties.

    What makes you believe that Euroskeptic parties threaten the groupings of either EPP or S&D? What makes you think that, even were Euroskeptic parties to get a majority (which they won't) that this would make a significant impact in any way other than as a morale boost for euroskeptic parties? There aren't even any euroskeptic parties in Ireland, unless you are including GUE/NGL among euroskeptic groupings, which, while there is an argument to be made for such, is not what I think you're aiming at.
    murphaph wrote: »
    It's the most important European elections in history I believe. There will be massive attempts at disinformation and targeted social media advertising right across the EU, paid for by you know who. As citizens of the EU we can reject these puppets of Putin.

    Have you evidence to support Euroskeptic parties being a 5th column directly under the authority of the Kremlin, because in a forum about politics you'd usually be expected to back up such assertions.

    THe S&D are the puppets of GeOrge SOroS


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