Dublin Racing Festival 2020

leko99 · 28-01-2020 6:06pm #1

The Dublin Racing Festival is days away. Excited much?!?!!:D so heres the questions;
Who are you looking forward to seeing the most?
Who represents value at the current prices?
Who is way overpriced?

Prices are at time of post and are top 6 from each market.
NL & Partners Solicitors Novice
Latest Exhibition 9/2
Fury Road 9/2
Elixir Dainay 5/1
Easywork 6/1
Longhouse Poet 7/1
Asterion Forlonge 8/1

Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
Chacun Pour Soi 5/4
A PLus Tard 9/4
Cilaos Emery 3/1
Min 6/1
DDG 20/1
Ordinary World 33/1

Irish Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle 11/8
Sharjah 2/1
Klassical Dream 7/2
Petit Mouchoir 14/1
Apples Jade 16/1
Supasundae 20/1

Arkle Novice Chase
Notebook 7/4
Fakir 2/1
Cash Back 5/1
Bapaume 6/1
Melon 10/1
Easy Game 25/1

Flogas Novice Chase
Faugheen 2/1
Battleoverdoyen 11/4
Laurina 4/1
Fakir 6/1
Melon 13/2
Easy Game 8/1

Spring Juvenile Hurdle
Aspire Tower 4/7
Rayapour 5/1
Cerebus 11/2
Wolf Prince 8/1
Never Do Anything 10/1
A Wave Of The Sea 12/1

Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle
Abacadabras 13/8
Envoi Allen 9/2
Andy Dufresne 6/1
Captain Guinness 6/1
Elixir Dainay 6/1
Easywork 6/1

Irish Gold Cup
Kemboy 7/4
Delta Work 2/1
Presenting Percy 9/2
Chriss Dream 7/1
Bellshill 16/1
Sizing John 20/1

carq · 28-01-2020 6:17pm

Looking at last year it definitely seems a favourites meeting - listed below.
Notebooks performance was very good but tempted by melon at the prices - even e/w.
Would be looking at backing envoi allen and fury road at the prices too.

Saturday

1st Commander Of Fleet (IRE) (12)13/2
1st Apple's Jade (FR) (6) 8/11fav
1st Off You Go (IRE) (5) 8/1
1st Envoi Allen (FR) (1) 4/6fav
1st Min (FR) (2) 4/9fav
1st Le Richebourg (FR) (4) 11/10fav
1st Quamino (GER) (9) 14/1

Sunday

1st Sassy Diva (IRE) (12) 10/3fav
1st Sir Erec (IRE) (8) 13/8fav
1st Klassical Dream (FR) (8) 9/4fav
1st Dallas Des Pictons (FR) (6) 7/2Jfav
1st La Bague Au Roi (FR) (8) 10/11fav
1st Bellshill (IRE) (4) 2/1
1st Whisperinthebreeze (GB) (16) 7/1
1st Santa Rossa (IRE) (4) 3/1

BoldReason · 28-01-2020 6:21pm

Only ones sticking out at those prices and without doing any work on it are.

A Plus Tard should be closer to Chacun. Chacun to short for me. A Plus Tard probably the right price Chacun should be at least 7/4.

Id make Sharjah favorite for the champion hurdle or at least joint fav. I like the mare but I'd take her on at 11/8 also.

Battleoverdoyen at 11/4 is a bet. I'd make him favorite over faugheen.

Captain Guinness at 6/1 I'd have some of that also if he ran. Assuming Envoi Allen does not show up. In which case I wouldn't have a bet.

Seems I will be taking on the top end of the market in most races as also don't like Kemboy.

RivetingRoger · 28-01-2020 6:30pm

Min wont be running, and at the prices, the bookies know it too.
Faugheen 2/1 scares me, i want him to win, i think he could win but 2/1 is so skinny, christ
Percy 9/2 is a HUGE price
Bellshill 16/1 an EW punt I'd like to get into
Have multiple bets on already for March that incl Aba in the supreme so I am hoping he hacks up here, and i think he could

madmoose · 28-01-2020 6:30pm

Flying over friday so cant wait, go to punchestown most years but this is my first trip to leopardstown and im going both days.

Regarding betting i doubt i will bet much bar the handicaps as i expect most favs to win across the graded races.

madmoose · 28-01-2020 6:31pm

Hope we see Sizing John run well in the Irish Gold Cup after his hurdles mishap last time.

yaboya1 · 28-01-2020 6:34pm

Some cracking races there.
Assume Envoi Allen doesn't run based on those prices?

BoldReason · 28-01-2020 6:36pm

madmoose wrote: »

Flying over friday so cant wait, go to punchestown most years but this is my first trip to leopardstown and im going both days.

Regarding betting i doubt i will bet much bar the handicaps as i expect most favs to win across the graded races.

Enjoy it. Leopardstown is by far the best punter friendly experience in the country. Great facilities and great viewing points for track and parade ring.

madmoose · 28-01-2020 6:41pm

BoldReason wrote: »

Enjoy it. Leopardstown is by far the best punter friendly experience in the country. Great facilities and great viewing points for track and parade ring.

Good stuff, is this meeting over packed to prevent the viewing points?

BoldReason · 28-01-2020 6:50pm

madmoose wrote: »

Good stuff, is this meeting over packed to prevent the viewing points?

I missed it last year as I was away. But it was fine the previous year from what I remember. Not as bad as Stephens day which is mayhem.

Others can probably comment on last year.

RivetingRoger · 28-01-2020 6:51pm

Anyone thinking Min will actually run ?

famagusta · 28-01-2020 7:00pm

BoldReason wrote:

Others can probably comment on last year.

BoldReason wrote:

I missed it last year as I was away. But it was fine the previous year from what I remember. Not as bad as Stephens day which is mayhem.

Ya I would agree, iirc about 14000 there for the Saturday last year, no bother with viewing or getting pints, its a great spot

Francie Barrett · 28-01-2020 9:07pm

Any deals on tix this year?

IAMAMORON · 28-01-2020 9:17pm

madmoose wrote: »

Good stuff, is this meeting over packed to prevent the viewing points?

Leopardstown rarely gets chronic busy, there is plenty of space and the facilities are great. I hope you have a great time.

28-01-2020 11:36pm

leko99 wrote: »

The Dublin Racing Festival is days away. Excited much?!?!!:D so heres the questions;
Who are you looking forward to seeing the most?
Who represents value at the current prices?
Who is way overpriced?

Prices are at time of post and are top 6 from each market.
NL & Partners Solicitors Novice
Latest Exhibition 9/2
Fury Road 9/2
Elixir Dainay 5/1
Easywork 6/1
Longhouse Poet 7/1
Asterion Forlonge 8/1

Ladbrokes Dublin Chase
Chacun Pour Soi 5/4
A PLus Tard 9/4
Cilaos Emery 3/1
Min 6/1
DDG 20/1
Ordinary World 33/1

Irish Champion Hurdle
Honeysuckle 11/8
Sharjah 2/1
Klassical Dream 7/2
Petit Mouchoir 14/1
Apples Jade 16/1
Supasundae 20/1

Arkle Novice Chase
Notebook 7/4
Fakir 2/1
Cash Back 5/1
Bapaume 6/1
Melon 10/1
Easy Game 25/1

Flogas Novice Chase
Faugheen 2/1
Battleoverdoyen 11/4
Laurina 4/1
Fakir 6/1
Melon 13/2
Easy Game 8/1

Spring Juvenile Hurdle
Aspire Tower 4/7
Rayapour 5/1
Cerebus 11/2
Wolf Prince 8/1
Never Do Anything 10/1
A Wave Of The Sea 12/1

Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle
Abacadabras 13/8
Envoi Allen 9/2
Andy Dufresne 6/1
Captain Guinness 6/1
Elixir Dainay 6/1
Easywork 6/1

Irish Gold Cup
Kemboy 7/4
Delta Work 2/1
Presenting Percy 9/2
Chriss Dream 7/1
Bellshill 16/1
Sizing John 20/1

To answer your first question somewhere between 5 and 10 of them - so many good horses.

Your second 2 questions..... Not a clue

Will have a look at the cards/going on the day - day before to find something to punt on.

But whatever wins/runs well in the last posted race will only be collecting place money if they head to Prestbury Park on Friday 13th behind SANTINI:D

Going back to questions 2 and 3 in order I'll go:
Laurina - Flogas, Fury Road - NL & Partners equally for "value"

And, for way overpriced:
Sizing John

But I haven't a clue and these might not even run

Did I mention SANTINI :pac: :pac:

Okay, now that I've considered it a bit to answer question 1 - Honeysuckle.

WicklowBravee · 29-01-2020 12:07am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Anyone thinking Min will actually run ?

He’s won the race the last two years. Where else is he gonna run before Cheltenham?

29-01-2020 12:17am

Deleted User wrote: »

To answer your first question somewhere between 5 and 10 of them - so many good horses.

Your second 2 questions..... Not a clue

Will have a look at the cards/going on the day - day before to find something to punt on.

But whatever wins/runs well in the last posted race will only be collecting place money if they head to Prestbury Park on Friday 13th behind SANTINI:D

2 and 3 in oGoing back to questions rder I'll go:
Laurina - Flogas, Fury Road - NL & Partners equally for "value"

And, for way overpriced:
Sizing John

But I haven't a clue and these might not even run

Did I mention SANTINI :pac: :pac:

Okay, now that I've considered it a bit to answer question 1 - Honeysuckle.

I'll also add Bapaume in the Arkle to the "value" list.
But like I already mentioned.... not much of a clue me.....

Good races and good horses... I'll probably throw a score or so on two or three of the graded races when I find a good thing on or on the day before the races....

But bear in mind for future reference the Seven Barrows machine who will be watching the main event with disdain

Great thread btw... Brings out all sorts of opinions which is what this game is based on, and, not bragging or anything like that, some good levity from me especially...

Enjoy if you're venturing

Andrew00 · 29-01-2020 12:33am

Money for fury Road this weekend

Plasandrunt · 29-01-2020 8:42am

Sharjah my only bet of the week. I do like Honeysuckle but have to take her on.

Gavin "shels" · 29-01-2020 9:21am

madmoose wrote: »

Hope we see Sizing John run well in the Irish Gold Cup after his hurdles mishap last time.

Thought I was going to be the only to mention him....

Heading out Sunday myself.

carq · 29-01-2020 9:45am

Strange how so few english horses make the trip over given the prize money at stake?
Have to applaud the efforts to get this festival off the ground - its like a super charged mini cheltenham before cheltenham.

Brock Turnpike · 29-01-2020 9:47am

I'll be going with a the sentimental double for an interest...

Faugheen
Sizing John

Slattsy · 29-01-2020 9:51am

Suppose if you fancy Fury Road this weekend, best to get on at 10s with bet365 now. 8s in a lot of places.

He looks the strongest of the irish and i suspect he could go off a hell of a lot shorter than 10s so i've taken some of that.

NaiveMelodies · 29-01-2020 10:14am

Reckon Fakir is value at 2s to overturn the form with Notebook. Hope he doesn't go Sandown.

Min a 6/1 is ridiculous. Suggests he isn't running to me. Maybe he'll be running in Gowran before Ryanair tilt?

Slattsy · 29-01-2020 10:21am

Agree re Fakir - thought MW gave him a poor enough ride last time. If there's a decent bit of cut in the ground come March i think he'll win the Arkle. 11/2 with PP.. Again might be worth a bet before the DRF.

RivetingRoger · 29-01-2020 10:49am

WicklowBravee wrote: »

He’s won the race the last two years. Where else is he gonna run before Cheltenham?

Look at his price WB
do you really think he will be running with a price of 6/1 !!!
No chance he is running
He would be 5/2 absolute MAX price and probably shorter
Not a hope he runs V Chacun either

DRF is strangely missing a mid distance chase

spuddiesal · 29-01-2020 11:40am

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Reckon Fakir is value at 2s to overturn the form with Notebook. Hope he doesn't go Sandown.

Min a 6/1 is ridiculous. Suggests he isn't running to me. Maybe he'll be running in Gowran before Ryanair tilt?

I think Mullins could over turn the two of them.

If you dig into Fakirs form who has he actually bet? Samcro not the horse that he was supposed to be. Overturned by Pentland hills and fussil raffles. Bet melon and was getting 7lbs on him. Also all of Mullins horses need first run. 4th in poor supreme. Bet Fast buck (no good) by 3 lengths and was 14lb better of in weights. 2lb worse of this weekend. I think he will go Sandown.

Regarding Notebook who has he bet too? Very poor hurdler. Looked good the last day but how good is Fakir?

I would be on cash back. Danny Mullins couldn’t pull him up after his last race. Money coming for Bapuame. I would say Townend will pick Bapuame to keep Rich happy and leave Danny on Cash back.

spuddiesal · 29-01-2020 11:42am

Slattsy wrote: »

Agree re Fakir - thought MW gave him a poor enough ride last time. If there's a decent bit of cut in the ground come March i think he'll win the Arkle. 11/2 with PP.. Again might be worth a bet before the DRF.

No way he wins the Arkle of even weights. If all stays fit I’d price him up at around 16/1

IAMAMORON · 29-01-2020 11:43am

I am backing any UK raiders, they will have to be trying.

I would be wary of some of the other races, insofar as depending on the horses target, it is close enough to Cheltenham for trainers to not have them fully revved up to the max. They don't want their best ones over the top in 5-6 weeks. It is a bit like backing at Aintree in reverse if you ask me.

Take the Irish Hennessy for example. Traditionally it has never been a great feeder race for Gold Cup winners. I would be on the cute eye for any shrewd Irish trainer who is not arsed going to Cheltenham and wants to strike here for nice money and then target Punchestown and Fairyhouse. In Particular the bigger stables will be spreading out their targets.

But I would definitely be expecting some head scratchers with only 5 weeks to Cheltenham.

posturingpat · 29-01-2020 12:37pm

spuddiesal wrote: »

I think Mullins could over turn the two of them.

If you dig into Fakirs form who has he actually bet? Samcro not the horse that he was supposed to be. Overturned by Pentland hills and fussil raffles. Bet melon and was getting 7lbs on him. Also all of Mullins horses need first run. 4th in poor supreme. Bet Fast buck (no good) by 3 lengths and was 14lb better of in weights. 2lb worse of this weekend. I think he will go Sandown.

Regarding Notebook who has he bet too? Very poor hurdler. Looked good the last day but how good is Fakir?

I would be on cash back. Danny Mullins couldn’t pull him up after his last race. Money coming for Bapuame. I would say Townend will pick Bapuame to keep Rich happy and leave Danny on Cash back.

Friend of mine speaks to Townend on occasion, after his win at Navan Paul apparently was hugely impressed with Cash back, so it's interesting he picked Tornado flyer next time. Could be 2 to follow.

spuddiesal · 29-01-2020 12:51pm

posturingpat wrote: »

Friend of mine speaks to Townend on occasion, after his win at Navan Paul apparently was hugely impressed with Cash back, so it's interesting he picked Tornado flyer next time. Could be 2 to follow.

I think we haven’t seen the best of Tornado Flyer yet. Looks like they are stepping him up in trip.

Dublin Racing Festival 2020

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