European Parliament Elections 2019

expectationlost wrote: »

European Parliament Elections Ireland replacement list are up https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/ https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/


former MEP Kathy Sinnott is on the replacement list for 3 European election candidates

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Didn't she (KS) turn very rightwing conservative over the last few years, associating with John Waters's group against the SSM referendum and going on hunger strike over abortion?
Seems a good fit to the politics GO'D has recently embraced.

Geuze wrote: »

What is a replacement list?

L1011 wrote: »

Murphy has said they will not be doing the two counts and just furloughing the last in Dublin and South; but they've changed their minds so often at this stage they could change again

If a sitting TD gets that last place, do they have to resign due to dual mandate or not I wonder? Plenty of sitting TDs running in both constituencies. Obviously they would have to if de-furloughed

d)in subsection 4A—(i)by the substitution of the following paragraph for paragraph (a):“(a)A person who is elected under this Act to be a representative in theParliament, and who, when so elected, is a member of either Houseof the Oireachtas, shall on such election and no later than taking uphis or her seat in the Parliament, on the date specified by theParliament for the taking up of such seats, cease to be a member ofthe House of the Oireachtas concerned.”,


and(ii)by the substitution of the following paragraph for paragraph (b):“(b)A person who pursuant to section 19 of this Act is to be regarded ashaving been elected to be a representative in the Parliament orwhen he or she commences to be so regarded, and no later thantaking up his or her seat in the Parliament, on the date specified bythe Parliament for the taking up of such seats, shall cease to be amember of the House of the Oireachtas concerned.”

L1011 wrote: »

Fitzgerald will get re-elected in a heartbeat - she'll be in before the last seat though. Billy Kelleher is in no trouble. Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

Daly might be in a little danger, Doyle also. But they're not guaranteed to be out.

It is extremely likely that Fitzgerald and Kelleher will get elected; which will upset the Dáil arithmetic quite severely. Can't see either writ being moved as there's a damn good chance they'd retain neither (Lynch to win the same constituency twice at by-elections? Possible); meaning they've 6 months max to call a GE really.

Wallace is almost certain to get re-elected although nowhere near as decisively as in '11.

blanch152 wrote: »

Wallace will be under threat from two sources. Firstly, Sinn Fein will target his voters to try and take the fifth seat in Wexford, leaving him vulnerable. Secondly, Malcolm Byrne will have name recognition from the Euro campaign and could take a second FF seat. His best bet is if Howlin is seen as yesterday's man.

In Clare Daly's case, the two big parties are more likely to target Brendan Ryan than her. However, there are boundary changes in Dublin again, so haven't a thought on how they might affect her.

I agree with you re general election, in fact I wouldn't rule one out in May yet if it becomes clear that the full Brexit extension to October will be needed.

blanch152 wrote: »

If there are no changes, I would agree with that, based on the current polls.

Edit: Confused by the Reilly reference. Would see SF 1 (O'Reilly), Daly, Farrell, O'Brien, and the last seat between FF and FG.

blackwhite wrote: »

Haven’t seen any polls published for the Europeans yet, but you’re stretching a bit to say she’ll “sail into this seat”.

She’s never managed to top the poll in her own Dáil constituency. She will hoover up votes in some areas, but will struggle massively for transfers in a lot of areas too.

She’s in with a chance, but it’ll most likely be a tough battle between herself and Boylan for a seat

Haven’t seen any polls published for the Europeans yet, but you’re stretching a bit to say she’ll “sail into this seat”.

She’s never managed to top the poll in her own Dáil constituency.

but will struggle massively for transfers in a lot of areas too.

She’s in with a chance, but it’ll most likely be a tough battle between herself and Boylan for a seat

blackwhite wrote: »

I think Daly and Boylan are fighting for the same field of first preferences - both are strong candidates but they’ll damage each other’s first preference meaning both transfers and the order of other candidates being eliminated will become important.

I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back. Could well be wrong - but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

I see Fitzgerald taking the first seat. Beyond that I wouldn’t be surprised at any of Boylan, Daly, Andrews, Durkan or (as a dark horse) Higgins.

If the greens had a more likeable candidate than Cuffe I’d have them in with a shout either

I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back.

Could well be wrong

but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

MFPM wrote: »

Given that the Solidarity/SP are less than 1% in polls, I'd suggest she'll manage. Given that it's seven years since she was a member of said party and her support and profile since then has increased - you'll note she , it won't be too much of an issue, in fact it won't be an issue at all. You also confuse the attitude of SP voters and the attitude of some SP members.



I think that has already been proven.



Do you always apply such reductive analysis to politics? Is that it with Mick Wallace - we reduce his political legacy to something that predates his political career and ignore everything else? Do you apply the same approach to failed business woman Regina Doherty and her unpaid bills?

blackwhite wrote: »

The fact that you try to equate Regina Dohertys business failure to Mick Wallace’s multiple frauds tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your “analysis” tbh.

Regina Doherty didn’t misappropriate anyone’s pension contributions - nor did she lie on tax returns.

(She didn’t transfer a load of Italian properties to family members to keep them away from creditors either)

MFPM wrote: »

Interesting that you didn't engage with any of my 'analysis' instead you focused on Deputy Wallace again and excused Deputy Doherty which using your logic 'tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your 'analysis'...

blackwhite wrote: »

I think Daly and Boylan are fighting for the same field of first preferences - both are strong candidates but they’ll damage each other’s first preference meaning both transfers and the order of other candidates being eliminated will become important.

I think Daly might suffer on transfers from some of the hard left due to the manner of her split with the SP a few years back. Could well be wrong - but her decision to side with a failed business man who had been committing tax fraud AND had been fiddling with employees pension contributions tends to be the kind of thing that can upset people on the left.

I see Fitzgerald taking the first seat. Beyond that I wouldn’t be surprised at any of Boylan, Daly, Andrews, Durkan or (as a dark horse) Higgins.

If the greens had a more likeable candidate than Cuffe I’d have them in with a shout either

blackwhite wrote: »

The fact that you try to equate Regina Dohertys business failure to Mick Wallace’s multiple frauds tells us all we need to know about the bias underpinning any of your “analysis” tbh.

Regina Doherty didn’t misappropriate anyone’s pension contributions - nor did she lie on tax returns.

(She didn’t transfer a load of Italian properties to family members to keep them away from creditors either)

man98 wrote: »

Reason #1 that people continue to misunderstand the likes of Wallace is, as seen above, they try to put them into a box. I don't like Wallace, he cheated the people of this country, he cheated his own voters, his own subcontractors - as with Lowry. Everyone knows this. However, Wallace isn't a 'politician' - by extension, Wallace is not left or right wing. Wallace is the Irish equivalent of the Pirate Party, he purports to stand for the little guy against the mighty corporations and against the government. Economically and socially he's populist, but also takes classic libertarian positions on most issues (not that he'd be seen dead near the likes of Together for Yes.) It is exactly this that sets him apart from the clientele-ist gombeen politics across the country and it is exactly this that will see him come close to taking a seat in Ireland South. He's a loose cannon, but quite the opposite of a cute hoor. While his vote will be slightly stronger in Wexford, he'll sweep up transfers from non-conforming independents and small parties across the board. It's his refusal to talk local politics and to do parish pump that will see him sweep up votes from everyone between PBP and Irexit's candidate in Ireland South. The same will be true of Clare Daly in Dublin - who I suspect will be considerably more successful than poor aul Mick.

33 days from polling day, I see Kelleher topping the poll, Sean Kelly and Liadh Ní Ríada taking the next two seats (Ní Ríada on a reduced vote, splintered across smaller candidates). Clune should take the 4th seat, with a battle between Sheila Nunan, Mick Wallace and Malcolm Byrne for the last seat - as unlikely as it sounds. I suspect Nunan could edge it, significantly outperforming what many people expect.