Epsom Derby 2019

Broome was a bit disappointing today, he ran a lot like AVD by getting well on top in the final furlong. Couldn't have him for Epsom on that performance, because both Sovereign and Pythion made up 5 and 4L on him on their Ballysax runs against him. Bookies clipping him in to as low as 6/1 which is a miserable price IMO.

On to the Dante and here's hoping they all turn up for the King of the Derby Trials. Some strange stuff going on with Surfman a Kingman Colt trained by Roger Varian who won his last race by 14L being punted into 4/1 for the Dante. Things have come a long way since Too Darn Hot was all the rage for everything before he was withdrawn from the Guineas. Too Darn Hot is a best priced 9/2 for Epsom which will evaporate if he shows his well being in the Dante.

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Fair enough, very valid points. You can’t be a slave to pedigree though. I think Madhmoon is crying out for 10 furlongs and that will probably be his best trip but I think he’ll get 12. I can’t have TDH at all myself, he looks like an out and out miler.

Sir Dragonet obviously has a massive chance but I just think his price is gone now, he can win at that price.

Madhmoon is definitely crying out for 10f and the firmer the ground the better for him. He was doing his best work at the end of the Guineas where he finished a hd behind the stand side winner Skardu. ( held up in touch, ridden and every chance over 2f out, outpaced over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, 2nd of 16 in group ) If the stand side had won that day he'd be seen as a Guineas winning class horse being stepped up to the Derby with the best 2019 form coming into the Derby.

As a 2yo he only ever raced over a mile a distance at which he ate Broome for breakfast and passed by that G1 placed 2yo and dual Derby Trial winner with an ease that said he could have beaten him by 5 lengths if he'd wanted too. In behind that day were 3 future G1 placed 2yos.

Madhmoon's greatest problem isn't the trip at Epsom, it's the competition. The likes of Sir Dragonet and Too Darn Hot or whatever finishes close up in the Dante promise to make it a very high class Derby. A crap Derby would be well within Madhmoon's scope but this ain't a crap Derby and he's well short of having a Derby winning type pedigree. He's a very worthy outsider with much higher class form than he's been given credit for.

His sire Dawn Approach's best stats are for when his stock move up in distance, somewhat surprising given his own Epsom run. He is however transmitting his own sire New Approach's DNA as well as his own. In fairness to Dawn Approach his Derby Run should have a line put through it. He was simply too lit up that day to do himself justice, but the genome test did indicate that he couldn't win a Derby.



I don't know why people are doubting Too Darn Hot's staying ability. He made his 2yo Debut over 1m, he races like a horse who's tapped for toe and then finishes like a rocket when his stamina kicks in near the end of a race. He ran all over AVD in the Dewhurst and has more stamina credentials than that horse who is one of the favourites for the Derby. He's one of 3 full siblings ( Dubawi X Dar Re Mi ), their dam the Singspiel mare Dar Re Mi was a multiple Gp1 12f winner.

Lah Ti Dar won a 12f Listed race by 10L, stayed on into 2nd pulling away from high class 12f horses such as Old Persian ( G1 12f winner by Dubawi ) and Epsom Derby 2nd Dee Ex Bee ( who won at 2m this year ) in a vintage St Leger

So Mi Dar never ran over 12f but was very high class over 10f and in the 10f Prix De L'Opera the race comments say ( Took keen hold early, held up in touch on inner, driven and not quicken 2f out, not clear run and angled out approaching final 1 1/2f, began to stay on approaching 1f out, kept on well final furlong but not pace to reel in front two )

The Dewhurst is a good trial for the Derby. Of the few that have tried the double there's the winners New Approach', Sir Percy, Dr Devious, Generous etc. Plus Gosden is a bit of a genius at producing Derby Winners via the Dante.