Epsom Derby 2019

Mostly Harmless

Sir Dragonet - Donnacha
Broome - Moore
Anthony Van Dyck - Heff
Japan - Lordan

No idea about rest but above seems most likely situation to me assuming all four of them run.

The Tetrarch

This is my guess at the English Derby

1) Telecaster ... Ridden by Charlie Bennett 2nd to Bangkok (three previous runs) on his debut over 10+f at the end of March 2019 (held up in midfield). Since then ridden by Oisin Murphy.
His seconds/furlong are good averaging 12.69 (10+f 12.67; 10f 12.69; 10+f 12.70).
2) Japan... He has only ran four times, two wins, one the 8f Group 2 Beresford Stakes, with the 2nd, 3rd, 4th all maiden winners on their third attempt - not a strong race.
Japan was 4th behind Telecaster in the Dante beaten 5 3/4l. Dam a stayer, won her maiden at 13f.
3) Sir Dragonet ... Hard to assess. Two runs over 12+f both on good/soft.
His pace per furlong is the slowest of the Derby field due to slow ground and long distance.
Has he enough pace? Average seconds/furlong 13.69.
Dam raced 6f x 3; 7f x 4; 8f; 8.5f; 9.5f only win at 6f.
4) Broome ... The average time per furlong of his seven races is slow, probably because of softish ground. The Derby will not be on soft.
Another concern is his dam Sweepstake is by the 5f/6f sprinter Acclamation. Sweepstake ran 3x5f, 1x6f, 1x8f.
5) Bangkok ... Beaten three times from three races over 7f,7f,8f as a 2yo. Bankok ridden by Silvestre De Sousa beat Telecaster (debut) ridden by Charlie Bennett. Staying pedigree.
6) Anthony Van Dyck ... Run seven times at 7f/8f and once at 11.6f beating Pablo Escobarr.
May lack stamina although firm ground could help.
His dam ran five times, all at 5f/5.5f.
7) Line Of Duty ... Top class form until he flopped in the Dante 7th of 8 beaten 11l. He was due to run in the 2000 Guineas but missed that. Probably lacks fitness.
Off the course for 6 1/2 months before the Dante. Looks small. Dam a miler.

Originally I laid Sir Dragonet small, then backed him, now laid him after my final review [overall: back 500 at 4.10; lay 490 at 4.11]
Too Darn Hot lay 70 at 5?;
Telecaster back 300 at 6.4;
Circus Maximus back 64 at 37
Line Of Duty back 200 at 35.6.

You will have noticed I mention the dams of the runners and their race distances.
The runners get their distance abilities from the sire and dam, not from the damsire.
Average winning distance of sires is a very poor indicator. AWD of damsires has little relevance to the runner.
You do not know how many horses are used in the AWD calculation unless you search for them.
Last year the AWD of Deep Impact, sire of the 4/5 favourite Saxon Warrior, was based on only 8 winners.
"It was only 8 wins in the 10.1f AWD calculation, 5 of those were in maidens, 2 in low level handicaps, and 1 in a Group 1." ....... 1 in a Group 1 was Saxon Warrior !!!

My worry is the ground will be firm.
That will allow the non-stayers to stay, and the stayers will be outpaced and appear not to stay.

The Tetrarch

On mature reflection I have added another to my many Derby bets, and will probably reduce my Telecaster bet.
Surfman's sire was an 8f horse, his dam a 12f horse who even ran at 14f and 16f.
Surfman ... 36.49 ... €175.00 ... €6,211.04

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tXh-YI-zsNQ

Newcastle 30/04/19 10f, winning by 14 lengths 1/8 fav.

If you also look at video of the Dante Stakes you will see Surfman was second last at one stage perhaps 10 lengths behind the winner Telecaster.
Surfman finished 3rd, beaten 5 lengths.
He appeared to hesitate in the Dante when the long time leader Turgenev came right a furlong out. He then resumed his run and was closing at the line.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qvs3bUGfY3c

There was a gamble on Surfman before the Dante, odds halved to 4/1 in 24 hours.

Sporting Life 11th May: Varian said: "We’ve always held him in the highest regard and we’re keeping our fingers crossed that he’s as good as we think he might be."

Slattsy

Ground gonna be super quick. Who wants it fast?

I don't think SD or Japan will. AVD probably best on it? Tricky race. I can't have Broome, just doesn't do it for me!

WicklowBrave

It’s the Derby let’s hope the ground is like a road. and yes that will be to the advantage of the Dyke and Madhmoon

The Tetrarch

The only problems I can see with Surfman is he might not like going around corners or up and down hills.

Slattsy

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The only problems I can see with Surfman is he might not like going around corners or up and down hills.

Epsom Derby should suit.

del roy

2019 Epsom Derby

Past Epsom Derby Winners

2018 – Masar (16/1)
2017 – Wings of Eagles (40/1)
2016 – Harzand (13/2)
2015 – Golden Horn (13/8 fav)
2014 – Australia (11/8 fav)
2013 – Ruler Of The World (7/1)
2012 – Camelot (8/13 fav)
2011 – Pour Moi (4/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (11/4)
2008 – New Approach (5/1)
2007 – Authorized (5/4 fav)
2006 – Sir Percy (6/1)
2005 – Motivator (3/1 fav)
2004 – North Light (7/2 j fav)
2003 – Kris Kin (6/1)
2002 – High Chaparral (7/2)

Epsom Derby Betting Trends

16/17 – Raced no more than 5 times before
16/17 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
15/17 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/17 – Had won a Group race before
12/17 – Favourites that were placed
11/17 – Won from a single-figure stall
11/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
10/17 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
8/17 – Had won a Group One before
8/17 – Irish-trained winners
6/17 – Won by the favourite
5/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 6 in all)
5/17 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
4/17 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
3/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
3/17 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
1/17 – Won over 1m4f before
0/17 – Run at the course before
0/17 – Winners from stall 1

The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 13/2
10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby

Epsom Derby Trainer Stats

Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014 & 2017

Source T.Q

PhuckHugh22

You might want to quote a source for that info?

del roy

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

You might want to quote a source for that info?

T.Q

The Tetrarch

del roy wrote: »

T.Q

The Queen?

The Tetrarch

My attempt at putting a "yes" or "no" to the characteristics of a Derby winner listed above.

Problems:
1) the starter no longer follows the draw rules after 2010
Ignored: 11/17 – Won from a single-figure stall
Ignored: 3/17 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
Ignored: 0/17 – Winners from stall 1

2) same question asked twice or a variation of it
Counted twice but doubtful:
16/17 – Raced no more than 5 times before
10/17 – Had raced no more than 3 times before

3) same question asked twice or a variation of it
Counted twice but doubtful:
15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/17 – Won last time out

4) same question asked twice or a variation of it
Counted twice but doubtful:
12/17 – Favourites that were placed [not relevant to picking the winner]
6/17 – Won by the favourite

Most "yes" answers
Sir Dragonet (13)
Telecaster (9)
Broome (8)
Anthony Van Dyck (7)
Circus Maximus (7)
Cape Of Good Hope (6)
Japan (6)
Bangkok (5)
Humanitarian (5)
Madhmoon (5)
Norway (5)
Hiroshima (4)
Line Of Duty (4)
Sovereign (4)
Surfman (3)

A horse that ran two or three times (2), and in the last five weeks (1), won (2) its last race that was over 10f (1) and also over 12f (1), and was a Group race (1), trained in Ireland (1) by Aidan O'Brien (1), and is the favourite (2) and is under 7/1 in the betting (1) gets (13) points - Sir Dragonet.

yaboya1

Always worries me when I can pick holes in these stats without even checking.
The 5/17 ran in the 2000 guineas is incorrect. From memory, it's 6 at least.
If I can't trust that, I can't trust any of them. Lazy research.

brickster69

yaboya1 wrote: »

Always worries me when I can pick holes in these stats without even checking.
The 5/17 ran in the 2000 guineas is incorrect. From memory, it's 6 at least.
If I can't trust that, I can't trust any of them. Lazy research.

I would say at least 10 off the top of me head.

My mistake

11117

Any thoughts on Cape of Good Hope? Brother to Highland Reel and Idaho, won the Derby trial at Epsom. Looks sure to stay and has course form. The trial mightn’t have been the greatest but he looks sure to improve for the run. Also an early enough trial and the other winners might be fresher in memory. Might be worth a chance e/w at good odds

supremenovice

11117 wrote: »

Any thoughts on Cape of Good Hope? Brother to Highland Reel and Idaho, won the Derby trial at Epsom. Looks sure to stay and has course form. The trial mightn’t have been the greatest but he looks sure to improve for the run. Also an early enough trial and the other winners might be fresher in memory. Might be worth a chance e/w at good odds

Yeah, I'd second that. At least we know he handles the track. I think my main bet is on Bangkok - the form is rock solid but what intrigues me most is that racing often gives us a feel-good story and nobody would begrudge these connections to the Leicester City tragedy last year.

madmoose

How about the named placed mixed tricast for a laugh involving Bangkok, Norway & Japan, be some payout that!!

PhuckHugh22

AVD pretty weak in the betting here before the 48 dec stage.

Ominous signs unfortunately.

Mostly Harmless

Madhmoon is not in good form at home according to same person who gave me the Weld filly at Fairyhouse.

PhuckHugh22

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

AVD pretty weak in the betting here before the 48 dec stage.

Ominous signs unfortunately.

Crisis averted he is in!

IAMAMORON

When will they announce jockey bookings ?

PhuckHugh22

IAMAMORON wrote: »

When will they announce jockey bookings ?

For Ballydoyle. Usually they start to surface in the next couple of hours.

By the end of today at the latest id say.

PhuckHugh22

Out now.

Ryan on Sir Dragonet(and im down money before the race starts haha)
Donnacha on Broome
Seamie on AVD
Frankie on Circus Maximus
Wayne on Japan
Spencer on Norway
Beggy on Sovereign

maximo31

madmoose wrote: »

How about the named placed mixed tricast for a laugh involving Bangkok, Norway & Japan, be some payout that!!

Need to throw in Broome and Hiroshima as well!:)

RivetingRoger

AVD and Madhmoon done
7/1 and 12/1
So now ye know who to swerve lads!!

Slattsy

Lordan on Japan - lovely.

Francie Barrett

The Tetrarch wrote: »

1) the starter no longer follows the draw rules after 2010

Not quite sure what you mean by this?

longshotvalue

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Out now.

Ryan on Sir Dragonet(and im down money before the race starts haha)
Donnacha on Broome
Seamie on AVD
Frankie on Circus Maximus
Wayne on Japan
Spencer on Norway
Beggy on Sovereign

:eek::o:mad::(
Dont know what to think. Probablyassures him not being used as a pacemaker.. Dont think its out of the question the top 3 coolmore jockeys get beaten by frankie and spencer..

BumperD

Sir Dragonnet for me

Mostly Harmless

Poor old Michael Hussey getting zero reward for all his hard work