Epsom Derby 2019

WicklowBrave

I thought AvD hated the track so to still win was a serious performance. The 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th should all have cause for optimism aswell, however, I wouldn’t be suprised if none of them won an open age Group I between em this season.

Slattsy

I'm absolutely pissed by the way. Mon Liverpool!

The Tetrarch

The Tetrarch wrote: »

The Racing Post Predictor says
1. Anthony Van Dyck 7/1
2. Sir Dragonet 5/2
3. Line Of Duty 25/1

:pac:

Not the best week for me, a treble.
I backed the last in the Oaks and the last in the Derby.
Have an infection raging that I picked up at a hospital procedure last Monday.
I am a Spurs fan for over 50 years.

The going at Epsom should have been described as firm (or possibly faster) based on race times.
There was more chance of the clerk of the course streaking down the straight than taking the word "good" out of the Derby going description.

In Nick Mordin's book Winning Without Thinking, he compared going descriptions to races times, comparing the times to standard time for the distance.
Firm was reported 0.8% but actual firm based on times was ten times that, or 8%. Hard was recorded 0%.
Mordin used a second a mile as the guide. Races all run about a second a mile slower than standard it was good/soft, races run two seconds a mile slower it was soft.

I think there was a following breeze down the straight at Epsom.
The commentator mentioned that a filly won a race before the Derby 0.03 outside record time.
That suggests to me that the Derby time was slow for the conditions, and ended in a sprint.

The 13 Derby runners had run 63 times before the race.
I always calculate the seconds per furlong for each race (adjusting extra yards e.g. 7f 44y is 7+44/220 = 7.2f, and for beaten lengths, 5 lengths a second).
These were the fastest pre-race at 7f, 8f, 10f, 10.2f.
No adjustment for going. I just want to know who ran the fastest.

Name ....................... Furlongs ... Seconds/fur
Anthony Van Dyck (1) ..... 7.00 ....... 12.05
Anthony Van Dyck (1) ..... 7.00 ....... 12.15
Anthony Van Dyck (1) ..... 7.00 ....... 12.16
Bangkok (12) ................. 7.00 ...... 12.19
Humanitarian (7)............. 8.00 ...... 12.19
Madhmoon (2) ............... 8.00 ...... 12.22
Bangkok (12) ................. 8.00 ...... 12.23
Circus Maximus (6) .......... 8.00 ...... 12.24
Circus Maximus (6) .......... 8.00 ...... 12.24
Telecaster (13) .............. 10.00 ..... 12.69
Norway (8) .................... 10.00 ..... 12.79
Hiroshima (11) ................ 10.00 ..... 12.83
Broome (4) .................... 10.00 ...... 12.92
Bangkok (12) ................. 10.20 ...... 12.65
Telecaster (13) .............. 10.20 ...... 12.67
Telecaster (13) .............. 10.25 ...... 12.70

tryfix

Hope that Japan fulfils the promise he showed in the Derby but it's probable that 10f will see him at his best. His full Sister ( Secret Gesture ) and Brother ( Sir Isaac Newton ) were best at 10f which would point him towards races like the Eclipse.

On the plus side for him at 12f, he has already stayed 12f in the Derby and he has posted a 118 rpr there which makes him better already than his siblings with 112 rpr for Secret Gesture and 117 rpr for Sir Isaac Newton at their best trip of 10f.

Nearly everything by Galileo stays, even the brilliant miler Rip Van Winkle stayed 12f at Epsom where he was a fine 2L 4th to Sea The Stars but he blossomed when brought back in trip.

Mostly Harmless

Be amazed if Japan drops back in trip myself, looks very much a stayer and not blessed with pace (I have been amazed before and will be amazed again)

RivetingRoger

RivetingRoger wrote: »

AVD and Madhmoon done
7/1 and 12/1
So now ye know who to swerve lads!!

@slattsy !!!!!

GET IN THERE!
First and Second.....Silence Slattsy....SILENCE

:)

tryfix

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Be amazed if Japan drops back in trip myself, looks very much a stayer and not blessed with pace (I have been amazed before and will be amazed again)

True, maybe the other pair are the black sheep of the family and he's the normal one ( they have a 12f+ pedigree on Dosage anyway ). They don't come much odder than Sir Isaac Newton. :pac:

The rematch at the Curragh will be great craic. Ryan back on board AVD and everyone wondering whose turn it will be on the day.

PhuckHugh22

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Lads stop worrying yer minds. AVD wins this. He was all the rage in the antepost last year and has only enhanced his claims since then. Throw out the Breeders cup run.
He should be favourite and id nearly say he will go off favourite.

Forgot i put up this a few weeks back.

Easy Game!! :cool:

Slattsy

RivetingRoger wrote: »

@slattsy !!!!!

GET IN THERE!
First and Second.....Silence Slattsy....SILENCE

:)

Giddy up!

Slattsy

RivetingRoger wrote: »

@slattsy !!!!!

GET IN THERE!
First and Second.....Silence Slattsy....SILENCE

:)

Giddy up!

tryfix

Anthony Van Dyck was rated 118 as a two-year-old, when successful at Group 2 level and placed twice in Group 1 races (second in the National Stakes and third in the Dewhurst). Having run seven times as a juvenile, including a trip to America for the Breeders’ Cup, he was nothing if not battle hardened and this toughness stood him in good stead on Saturday where he came up against some less experienced rivals. The sectional times for the Derby suggest he used his energy in an optimum manner and in rating his winning performance at 118 I believe he didn’t need to improve upon his two-year-old form.

To put that figure into context, Wings Of Eagles (2017) and Ruler Of The World (2013) were rated 119 when coming out on top in similarly tight finishes and they were previously the lowest performances in the Derby this century.

Madhmoon had finished fourth in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket last month and it could be argued that he was a slightly unlucky loser at Epsom. Towards the rear when stumbling slightly coming round Tattenham Corner, that seemed to galvanise him into action (made a sweeping move) and he ran the fastest two furlongs of any horse at any stage of the race. He clearly didn’t expend his energy as evenly through the race as Anthony Van Dyck and that may ultimately have been the difference. He emerges with a rating of 117, the same as Japan, Broome and Sir Dragonet who all finished upsides.

As the first six home are all trained in Ireland the job of publishing official ratings fall to my Irish colleague Garry O’Gorman and he has confirmed the above figures.

Anapurna and Frankie Dettori winning The Investec Oaks

The previous afternoon’s Investec Oaks was won by Anapurna who, like Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck, had won her trial at Lingfield and completed a notable classic double for the Surrey venue.

Comparisons with Anthony Van Dyck don’t stop there as sectional times for the Oaks suggest she also ran an optimal race. She is clearly a fast improving filly and her new rating of 113 matches the five-year race standard. Was and Casual Look were also rated 113 when winning in 2012 and 2003 respectively.

There were interesting aspects to the performances of several of the beaten horses. Runner-up Pink Dogwood ran an exceptionally fast furlong split with three furlongs to run. It took her into the lead but she couldn’t quite hold off Anapurna late on, the latter having run a more evenly paced race.

Fleeting found herself a long way off the lead and like Pink Dogwood really accelerated with three furlongs to run. She ran the fastest final furlong but the front two were just beyond her reach. Both of these Aidan O’Brien-trained fillies clearly have abundant talent and I would be surprised if they don’t win major races.

Another filly worth mentioning is Mehdaayih who was supplemented for the race after running away with the Listed Cheshire Oaks. She endured a nightmare run up the straight, notably when hampered over a furlong out, and must be given another chance.

The Investec Coronation Cup was also run on Friday and Defoe gained a deserved first Group 1 success.

Salouen, who went so close to beating Cracksman in this race last year, and Communique pestered each other for the lead and this set things up for the more conservatively ridden pair of Defoe and Kew Gardens. Kew Gardens (120) won last year’s St Leger over 14f and when he hit the front entering the final furlong I didn’t expect to see him outstayed, but Defoe had gone an even pace throughout and that meant he finished best of all. His new rating of 118 is a career best.

Kew Garden’s rating comes from his St Leger win and his efforts around a mile and a half are more in line with the 117 I have him performing to here.

The BHA ratings for Epsom's three Group 1 races. OR 118 for AVD in the Derby and the same OR 118 for Defoe in the Coronation Cup. Anapurna ran to OR 113 in the Oaks which is the equivalent of OR 116 with the 3lbs sex allowance.

Kew Gardens ran to 117 as did Madhmoon Japan, Broome and Sir Dragonet and they are all snapping at each other's heels plus the Oaks second Pink Dogwood is reckoned to have run too fast at one stage of the Oaks leaving herself vulnerable to the winner Anapurna who ran a more efficient race.


So it's all as clear as mud as a blanket could cover the weekend's top performers at Ascot. Apparently last year's top fillies Enable, Magical and Sea Of Class have nothing to fear from the Epsom brigade.


https://www.britishhorseracing.com/investec-derby-festival-2019-handicappers-blog/

PhuckHugh22

tryfix wrote: »

The BHA ratings for Epsom's three Group 1 races. OR 118 for AVD in the Derby and the same OR 118 for Defoe in the Coronation Cup. Anapurna ran to OR 113 in the Oaks which is the equivalent of OR 116 with the 3lbs sex allowance.

Kew Gardens ran to 117 as did Madhmoon Japan, Broome and Sir Dragonet and they are all snapping at each other's heels plus the Oaks second Pink Dogwood is reckoned to have run too fast at one stage of the Oaks leaving herself vulnerable to the winner Anapurna who ran a more efficient race.


So it's all as clear as mud as a blanket could cover the weekend's top performers at Ascot. Apparently last year's top fillies Enable, Magical and Sea Of Class. have nothing to fear from the Epsom brigade


https://www.britishhorseracing.com/investec-derby-festival-2019-handicappers-blog/

You can probably add Crystal Ocean to that group. Think he will get his head in front in a group 1 finally this year.