Epsom Derby 2019

tryfix

Well the 2,000 Guineas is safely out of the way and it's now time to ponder a presently very open Derby.


Latest best odds.

Magna Grecia 6/1

Too Darn Hot. 6/1

Japan 7/1

Broome 10/1

Dubai Warrior. 14/1

Anthony Van Dyck 14/1

Bangkok. 16/1

Madhmoon. 16/1

Quorto. 16/1

UAE Jewel. 20/1

Slalom. 20/1

Mount Everest. 20/1

Al Hilalee. 20/1

Line Of Duty. 20/1

Cap Francais. 25/1

Telecaster. 25/1

Surfman. 25/1

Cape Of Good Hope. 25/1

Technician. 33/1

King Ottaker. 33/1

Sovereign. 33/1

Norway. 33/1

Circus Maximus. 33/1

Eagles By Day. 33/1


First off, Gosden or O'Brien are usually the most likely winning trainers with Charlie Appleby up there with them. The Dante is the best guide to whichever of the English horses might win.


Can't see Magna Grecia heading to Epsom, his next two races have been pencilled in as the Irish 2,000 and St James Palace Stakes.

Too Darn Hot would be an ideal type if he gets there. I'll back him in a flash if he turns up there.

Japan is a no for me personally on pedigree, it's a family that sells for millions but there are doubts over that family being truly effective over 12f . His full sibling Secret Gesture was 2nd in the Oaks and his full brother Sir Isaac Newton was best at 1m to 10f so to my mind it's a big probability that the family are best at 10f and Japan won't be at his best over a fast run 12f at Epsom. Japan goes for the Derrinstown.

Broome is a good solid unfashionable type who has already shown his well being with a very impressive Ballysax win. He's a definite for the short list.

Bangkok is another son of Australia who's been making headlines, his form so far simply isn't good enough and his price is also too short given his form. I could see him trying to lift his form to new heights in the Dante.

Of O'Brien's legions it's hard to sort them out because the sickness in his stable last year meant that we didn't see his 2018 2yos at their best. I'm a big fan of Cape Of Good Hope who has some improving to do but already looks to be a top four finisher on stamina alone. Norway was hugely impressive in the Zetland before flopping in France he could contract in price spectacularly if he wins the Chester Vase which I think he will do.

My old buddy Madhmoon looks a bit light on pedigree to win the Derby but his running in the Guineas points to him having an excellent chance at Epsom. One worth a nibble but only at a big price.

Line Of Duty is likely to have plenty of supporters on this forum and so he should. AVD will stay but his ability and well-being need to be proven.

Andrew00

Was keen on Mount Everest but he was ruled out today.

Looks wide open, would be great if TDH rocked up

WicklowBrave

Anthony van Dyck.

WicklowBrave

Actually, why wasn’t AvD in the Guineas ?? Had every right to be in it I’d have thought. Could well have gone close (well, draw permitting).

The Tetrarch

When he was taken out of the 2000 Guineas I had a bet on Line Of Duty for the English Derby.
Line Of Duty ... 22.38 ...€150.00 ... €3,206.93

RivetingRoger

Couldn't have Line of Duty
Couldn't trust it Fellah...........

(See what I did there....wha wha!!!)

Slattsy

On Japan antepost but Sir Dragonet looked impressive there. Could be a good un.

The Tetrarch

Every year the same trials, and each trial has a winner, a few impressive.
I think I will wait for the final declarations before I bet again.

IAMAMORON

Slattsy wrote: »

On Japan antepost but Sir Dragonet looked impressive there. Could be a good un.

Looks a monster. Some of the pundits tried to talk it down, but he looks the biz. The ground was on the soft side but I wouldn't stop anyone backing him. Very impressive. Stuffed them all by 8 lengths, pushed out.

tryfix

Loved that performance from Sir Dragonet. It's an OR 116+ performance in my book with it taking about 120 to win a Derby. Love the breeding for a Classic.

If anyone but Ryan Moore rides him he's a great price at the moment.

Imhof Tank

Super impressive IMO and will surely be supplemented.

Quite reminiscent of Golden Fleece I thought for those who remember that one from the famous yard.

Around 5/1 now I see. I never back ante post but that is sorely testing me.

yaboya1

Obviously shows nothing at home.
14/1 winner at Tipperary on his debut and 13/2 today with Moore riding the shorter priced Norway. Saves it all for the track!

The Tetrarch

Sir Dragonet is 5/1 or less for the English Derby with all bookmakers, and he is not entered in the race.
He could win the Derby.
Only two of the six runners today had won a Listed race, none had won a Group race.
Sir Dragonet's sire, Camelot, won the Derby, and Sir Dragonet's second dam, All Too Beautiful, second in the English Oaks, is a full sibling of Galileo, who also won the Derby.
The ground will be quicker at Epsom, the field twice the size and better quality.
My guess is IF the horse runs at Epsom he will be at least 5/1 on the day.

BumperD

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Looks a monster. Some of the pundits tried to talk it down, but he looks the biz. The ground was on the soft side but I wouldn't stop anyone backing him. Very impressive. Stuffed them all by 8 lengths, pushed out.

Very impressed by that run

tryfix

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Sir Dragonet is 5/1 or less for the English Derby with all bookmakers, and he is not entered in the race.
He could win the Derby.
Only two of the six runners today had won a Listed race, none had won a Group race.
Sir Dragonet's sire, Camelot, won the Derby, and Sir Dragonet's second dam, All Too Beautiful, second in the English Oaks, is a full sibling of Galileo, who also won the Derby.
The ground will be quicker at Epsom, the field twice the size and better quality.

My guess is IF the horse runs at Epsom he will be at least 5/1 on the day.

The form is probably rock solid.

The 2nd Norway OR 104 was given an 8L 12lb beating , Norway had finished 4L second in a Gp1 on his previous run.

The 3rd Dashing Willoughby OR 102 was given an 8 3/4L 13lb beating. Dashing Willoughby finished 6 1/2L behind the 2,000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia in the Gp1 Racing Post Trophy.

The 4th King Ottaker OR 106 was given a 13 1/4L 20lb beating, he finished 8L behind Magna Grecia in the Racing Post Trophy.

The 5th Technician OR 105 was given a 14 1/2L 22lb beating, he had finished 1 1/4L second in the Gp3 Sandown Classic behind one of the current Derby favourites.

The 6th Arthur Kitt OR 109 was given a 15 1/2L 23lb beating, he had finished 10L behind the Epsom Derby Trial winner Cape Of Good Hope last time. He had also finished a 2 1/2L 4th behind Line Of Duty in the Gp1 Juvenile Turf, as well as finishing a 4L 2nd to Champion Juvenile Too Darn Hot in a Gp2 race.


Sir Dragonet beat the stuffing out of all those 100+ rated Gp1 tried horses in the manner of a horse who had plenty left in the locker. Maybe Coolmore have better at home, but this lad has a right to improve again.

IAMAMORON

He's 33/1 generally for the Arc, Ante Post, although not priced up by some of the main street shops yet. I reckon they're ****ting bricks. Bet 365 only 20 /1.

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/international/prix-de-larc-de-triomphe-2019/winner

When he wins the 2 Derby's and the King George and the St leger/ Arc debate starts I know what I am doing. If you give me a price for next summers's gold cup I am on as well.

In saying all that I am waiting until the morning of the Epsom Derby to get on. All it takes is one setback and he's out. Yeats, St Nicholas Abbey both spring to mind as Derby favourites who never made the race.

The Tetrarch

Rating are fine but often ratings are earned by being beaten.

2/7 Norway won a maiden and a Listed. previously 5/10; 3/13; 1/9; 1/6; 4/9;
3/7 Dashing Willoughby won a maiden. previously 1/6; 2/7; 8/11; 2/9;
4/7 King Ottokar won a novice stakes and a conditions stakes. previously 1/13; 9/11; 1/9;
5/7 Technician won a novice stakes. previously 3/13; 1/6; 2/6;
6/7 Arthur Kitt won a novice stakes and a Listed. previously 1/9; 1/11; 2/6; 5/7; 4/14; 5/7;
7/7 Kaloor won a novice stakes. previously 1/12; 3/9;

He beat (well) two horses who won Listed races, one horse who won a conditions stakes, two houses who won novice stakes, one horse who won a maiden.
Sir Dragonet has all the 12f classic ingredients in his pedigree.
Yesterday he beat horses who have been beaten before in Group races.
It was good/soft ground, and it seldom is good/soft at Epsom.
If he is supplemented he will be meeting horses who have won Group races.

How does the time of the race compare to previous Chester Vase times?
2:42.9 is 28th out of 38 times on the Chester Vase Wiki page.
The ground was good/soft

The Tetrarch

I know the ground was good/soft for the Chester Vase.

The Chester Vase is 1m 4f 63y. The English Derby is 1m 4f 6y
Sir Dragonet ran the Chester Vase in 2:42.91 which is equivalent to 2:39.5 at the Derby distance i.e. at a 57 yards shorter distance.
But the Derby field has a 134 foot hill to climb, while Chester is pancake flat on the banks of the river Dee.
The question is can Sir Dragonet run quickly on faster ground over a more difficult course.
Standard time for 1m4f63y at Chester is 2:34 .... 12.53 secs a furlong
Standard time for 1m4f6y at Epsom is 2:35 ....... 12.88 secs a furlong

Would 2:39.5 win the English Derby, the pace at which Sir Dragonet won the Chester Vase?

It did for these 7 horses in the last 50 years. The other 43 races were faster.

2016…Harzand……………..…….….2:40.09
2013…Ruler Of The World….…..2:39.06
2002…High Chaparral……….…...2:39.45
1984…Secreto……………..….…...2:39.12
1983…Teenoso……………..………..2:49.07
1981…Shergar……………..…….…..2:44.21
1969…Blakeney……….……..….…..2:40.3

Sir Dragonet won his first race on yielding/soft, 1m4f100y in 2:55.89
and improved to win the 1m4f63y Chester Vase in 2:42.91
My concern would be he is unproven on good ground or faster than good.

Itziger

My concern is semi ground related. He seemed to find the first few furlongs plenty fast enough, maybe inexperience, but I'd be a bit worried that he'd be taken off his feet. If the jockey can keep his head and do a Golden Fleece on it, that would be the trick.

Andrew00

Japan going for the Dante now

Slattsy

Mon the Japs

tryfix

Andrew00 wrote: »

Japan going for the Dante now

That's a fascinating choice for Japan, he'll be up against the best of the British Derby type horses and given his own potential stallion value it seems a risky enough strategy in that he could meet something special there that would give him a good hiding.

O'Brien's normal route to winning the Derby is 2,000 Guineas, Chester Vase, or Derrinstown.

Broome Broome :pac:

Andrew00

Japan sounds no where near ready anyway I wouldn't back him with stolen money in the Dante

tryfix

Andrew00 wrote: »

Japan sounds no where near ready anyway I wouldn't back him with stolen money in the Dante

He's got a better chance of winning the Dante than the Derby.

supremenovice

Anthony van Dyck won the Lingfield trial. Not for me based on that performance.

tryfix

supremenovice wrote: »

Anthony van Dyck won the Lingfield trial. Not for me based on that performance.

On that performance quotes of 5/1 are silly, but he settled the stamina argument and I suppose people are taking his 2yo form and taking him as a proven G1 performer who needed the step up in trip and he's a very likely runner unlike Sir Dragonet.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him winning the Derby but he'd want to be a much bigger price than he is now to be worth nibbling at. He'll drift out pretty soon as the Derrinstown and Dante winners throw up some more serious challengers on form.

Always Tired

tryfix wrote: »

On that performance quotes of 5/1 are silly, but he settled the stamina argument and I suppose people are taking his 2yo form and taking him as a proven G1 performer who needed the step up in trip and he's a very likely runner unlike Sir Dragonet.

It wouldn't be a huge surprise to see him winning the Derby but he'd want to be a much bigger price than he is now to be worth nibbling at. He'll drift out pretty soon as the Derrinstown and Dante winners throw up some more serious challengers on form.

If you were a bookie would you be giving big prices about any AOB runners? I know I wouldn't. Seems like people on this forum consider anything single digits unbackable.

tryfix

Always Tired wrote: »

If you were a bookie would you be giving big prices about any AOB runners? I know I wouldn't. Seems like people on this forum consider anything single digits unbackable.

Well the bookies probably love all the jumping on the multiple O'Brien Trial winners when people get over excited by seeing the stable and pedigrees vs the probability of the particular trial winner winning at Epsom. John Gosden has spanked Coolmore arse a few times in the Derby in recent years and Godolphin did it last year while the likes of Wings Of Eagles shows the difficulty in picking the right Coolmore runner in the Derby.

Let's look at what AVD achieved today. He won a trial that hasn't produced a Derby Winner in 21 years. He beat a 97 OR horse 2 1/4L with an OR 101 Nate The Great in 3rd being given a 4L or 6lb beating. That a sub 110 performance by a horse rated 118 and the bookies are offering a price of 5/1 for the Derby, that's taking the pee!

WicklowBrave

Considering AvD missed the Guineas and went off 2s I’m gonna say it’s quite possible he had a hold up so I’d say there’s plenty of improvement in him.

I wasn’t as blown away by Sir Dragonet as many were. It was impressive but he strikes me as more of an Irish Derby or Leger type, I wouldn’t be mad about him for Epsom tbh.

The Tetrarch

Every trial winner is being offered at 5/1.
That makes sense as the number of trials is multiples of that.

tryfix

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Considering AvD missed the Guineas and went off 2s I’m gonna say it’s quite possible he had a hold up so I’d say there’s plenty of improvement in him.

I wasn’t as blown away by Sir Dragonet as many were. It was impressive but he strikes me as more of an Irish Derby or Leger type, I wouldn’t be mad about him for Epsom tbh.

AVD just proved today that he's on track to run at Epsom, whether he improves massively from the run is anyone's guess.

The problem with Sir Dragonet is whether he'll run or not. He's not entered so if they have faith in a few more of their runners he probably won't get there. For me he has the X factor, Donnacha had any amount of horse under him in the Vase. If he gets to run at Epsom I'll be backing him.

Mgoraf

They'll definitely run sir dragonet imo. He has derby all over his pedigree, his potential stud value is way too big for them not to run him. him and Broome will be their two biggest hopes I think

WicklowBrave

Oh yeah Sir Dragonet is definitely running in the Derby. No chance they won’t go there with him.

supremenovice

Although Australia won the Derby, I have doubts over his progeny staying 1m4f. Therefore, I cant see Broome in the first four at Epsom.

tryfix

supremenovice wrote: »

Although Australia won the Derby, I have doubts over his progeny staying 1m4f. Therefore, I cant see Broome in the first four at Epsom.

They shouldn't lack for stamina on the Sire side. Australia already has a stamina index as a sire of 10.4f and his first crop are only in the May of their 3yo careers. Which is no surprise given that he's a Derby winner by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winning mare.


Broome himself is another matter because he's out of an Acclamation mare. His dam Sweepstake an 8.5f winner in the USA produced a 1m 5f winner to Arch 9.1f, a 10 1/2f placed pair to Fastenet Rock 9.6f and Galileo 11.2f but also managed to produce a 5 and 6f winner when mated with Oasis Dream 7.6f.

Broome will stay but that doesn't mean that he won't be better suited to 10 rather than 12f. The Australias may be a little deceptive as regards how far the stay, they can come from behind with a hugely impressive burst of speed and then they tend to idle when they've the race won. There's no reason to think that they won't be equally effective at 12f as 10f and he's 2 winners from 8 over 12f with the 6 losers losing through lack of ability rather than lack of stamina.

supremenovice

Thats a much more compelling argmuent than mine ☺.

The Tetrarch

Ballydoyle will keep loads of horses entered until the last minute.
They will have their firm ground horse, heavy ground horse, 10f horse, 12f+ horse, pacemakers.
No point in guessing until the entries are final.

Slattsy

Yer not listening to me lads, Japan wins the Derby! May not win the Dante though.

The Mig

A dubawi will never win the derby

tryfix

Broome was a bit disappointing today, he ran a lot like AVD by getting well on top in the final furlong. Couldn't have him for Epsom on that performance, because both Sovereign and Pythion made up 5 and 4L on him on their Ballysax runs against him. Bookies clipping him in to as low as 6/1 which is a miserable price IMO.

On to the Dante and here's hoping they all turn up for the King of the Derby Trials. Some strange stuff going on with Surfman a Kingman Colt trained by Roger Varian who won his last race by 14L being punted into 4/1 for the Dante. Things have come a long way since Too Darn Hot was all the rage for everything before he was withdrawn from the Guineas. Too Darn Hot is a best priced 9/2 for Epsom which will evaporate if he shows his well being in the Dante.

WicklowBrave

Broome races too lazily to be winning a Derby.

Nothing in the Dante I fancy for Epsom. I don’t believe TDH will stay and I don’t think Japan is all that tbh.

Fancy AvD as I’ve already mentioned but he’s too short now. Madhmoon got to be the one at the prices right now.

WicklowBrave

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Broome races too lazily to be winning a Derby.

Nothing in the Dante I fancy for Epsom. I don’t believe TDH will stay and I don’t think Japan is all that tbh.

Fancy AvD as I’ve already mentioned but he’s too short now. Madhmoon got to be the one at the prices right now.

Actually, only just clocked AvD is still 8s in places. That’s overpriced.

IAMAMORON

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Madhmoon got to be the one at the prices right now.

I can't have him at all. Have a look at Dawn Approach's attempt at the Derby. It went off around even money. The horse bolted and pulled for 7 f and was basically as good as pulled up coming down the hill. He finished last. Dawn Approach's mammy was a 6 f sprinter. The only chance Madhmoon has for the rest of the season is over a mile.

I hope Too Darn Hot bolts up in the Dante by a few lengths. Dubawi's have never won a Derby, but it will allow some value to come into Sir Dragonets price. Sir Dragonets win's the derby if he turns up. Staying machine. The only people talking his chance down is anyone trying to get on. I am putting my money where my mouth is here. Still no price about him for the Arc from Paddy Power or Boyles, they are literally not taking any bets. Were talking Antepost here.

If Too Darn Hot wins nicely in the Dante, the British Media alone will make him favourite. In fairness there is arguments on the dam side for him getting the trip. But my gut says that Dubawi's best trip is a mile to 10 furlongs. The only blip in that theory in the last few years is Postponed who did win group 1's over 12 furlongs.

WicklowBrave

Fair enough, very valid points. You can’t be a slave to pedigree though. I think Madhmoon is crying out for 10 furlongs and that will probably be his best trip but I think he’ll get 12. I can’t have TDH at all myself, he looks like an out and out miler.

Sir Dragonet obviously has a massive chance but I just think his price is gone now, he can win at that price.

The Tetrarch

I've laid Sir Dragonet (3.6/1) and Too Darn Hot (4.63/1) for the English Derby, and anything else that comes into a ridiculously short price will get the same treatment.

tryfix

WicklowBrave wrote: »

Fair enough, very valid points. You can’t be a slave to pedigree though. I think Madhmoon is crying out for 10 furlongs and that will probably be his best trip but I think he’ll get 12. I can’t have TDH at all myself, he looks like an out and out miler.

Sir Dragonet obviously has a massive chance but I just think his price is gone now, he can win at that price.

Madhmoon is definitely crying out for 10f and the firmer the ground the better for him. He was doing his best work at the end of the Guineas where he finished a hd behind the stand side winner Skardu. ( held up in touch, ridden and every chance over 2f out, outpaced over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, 2nd of 16 in group ) If the stand side had won that day he'd be seen as a Guineas winning class horse being stepped up to the Derby with the best 2019 form coming into the Derby.

As a 2yo he only ever raced over a mile a distance at which he ate Broome for breakfast and passed by that G1 placed 2yo and dual Derby Trial winner with an ease that said he could have beaten him by 5 lengths if he'd wanted too. In behind that day were 3 future G1 placed 2yos.

Madhmoon's greatest problem isn't the trip at Epsom, it's the competition. The likes of Sir Dragonet and Too Darn Hot or whatever finishes close up in the Dante promise to make it a very high class Derby. A crap Derby would be well within Madhmoon's scope but this ain't a crap Derby and he's well short of having a Derby winning type pedigree. He's a very worthy outsider with much higher class form than he's been given credit for.

His sire Dawn Approach's best stats are for when his stock move up in distance, somewhat surprising given his own Epsom run. He is however transmitting his own sire New Approach's DNA as well as his own. In fairness to Dawn Approach his Derby Run should have a line put through it. He was simply too lit up that day to do himself justice, but the genome test did indicate that he couldn't win a Derby.



I don't know why people are doubting Too Darn Hot's staying ability. He made his 2yo Debut over 1m, he races like a horse who's tapped for toe and then finishes like a rocket when his stamina kicks in near the end of a race. He ran all over AVD in the Dewhurst and has more stamina credentials than that horse who is one of the favourites for the Derby. He's one of 3 full siblings ( Dubawi X Dar Re Mi ), their dam the Singspiel mare Dar Re Mi was a multiple Gp1 12f winner.

Lah Ti Dar won a 12f Listed race by 10L, stayed on into 2nd pulling away from high class 12f horses such as Old Persian ( G1 12f winner by Dubawi ) and Epsom Derby 2nd Dee Ex Bee ( who won at 2m this year ) in a vintage St Leger

So Mi Dar never ran over 12f but was very high class over 10f and in the 10f Prix De L'Opera the race comments say ( Took keen hold early, held up in touch on inner, driven and not quicken 2f out, not clear run and angled out approaching final 1 1/2f, began to stay on approaching 1f out, kept on well final furlong but not pace to reel in front two )

The Dewhurst is a good trial for the Derby. Of the few that have tried the double there's the winners New Approach', Sir Percy, Dr Devious, Generous etc. Plus Gosden is a bit of a genius at producing Derby Winners via the Dante.

WicklowBrave

I’m not sure if TDH is getting tapped for toe, think it’s more down to greenness perhaps. He is absolutely rapid to my eye. Race like the Dewhurst I don’t think the others were stopping, TDH is quickening away from them. I’d have serious reservations about him at Epsom. The Dante will tell us more.

The Tetrarch

I would be careful about Madhmoon in the English Derby.
Dawn Approach did not stay the 12f, and we were told before the race he is an Equinome C.C and about 8f would be his distance limit.

What about Madhmoon's dam, Aaraas, as a source of stamina that would help Madhmoon get the tough 12f Epsom course?
Her one win was at 6f as a 2yo.
It is difficult to know what was her best distance as she only won that 6f race out of 13 runs.
She tried 12f once (sft/hvy) and was 9th of 10 beaten 23 lengths.
The best run by Aaraas was probably 2nd in the 10f Blue Wind Stakes Group 3 at Naas (gd/yld) but that had only 6 runners and the time was 13.14s above standard "2nd 2f out and soon ridden, kept on same pace under pressure final furlong without really troubling winner".
A 3yo+ maiden on the same card was run in a time 0.04 slower, the horses in the maiden carrying 10+ pounds more.
That tells me Aaraas had difficulty getting 10f in a slowly run race, and my guess is she is also a C.C.
Her dam Adaala won at 9f but was 11/11 at 10f. A C.C horse has a maximum staying distance of 10f.
For an example of a C.C that was great at 8f but bombed at 10f look up Toronado, who ran in the same year (and races) as Dawn Approach.

Madhmoon is entered in the Irish 2000 Guineas and St James Palace Stakes, both 8f, and I guess that is his distance.
He is probably a C.C.
He has not run beyond 8f yet.

tryfix

Had a few bob on Too Darn Hot for the Derby today before he runs as a short priced favourite in the Dante. If he wins tomorrow he'll probably be 6/4 for the Derby by tomorrow night.

akelly02

same

if you fancy him you may back him now, if he doesnt trot up here and contract in price, he wont be winning a derby

The Tetrarch

Too Darn Hot is a short price for the Dante, 1.99 on Betfair (odds on).
There are too many imponderables to support an odds on price.

His last three runs were at 7f, today is 10f 56y.
He has not run for 215 days.
He was injured, missed his main target, and his second main target is the Derby, not today's race.
There are three Galileo colts (they won at 8f, 9f, 10f), and one by Australia (he won at 7f) in the eight runners, two others have won at 10f this year, and the remaining horse is Too Darn Hot's pacemaker.
His six opposition have stamina as their long suit, and will try to test him.
On thing in his favour is the ground is good/firm.

I put a few Euro on Japan at 11s.