Epsom Derby 2019

IAMAMORON

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

I seen somewhere it may have been PP but it was 10/1 for AOB 1-2-3 or 11/4 for 1-2.

Thought it was plenty short enough on the 1-2-3 anyway.

I would prefer to do a trifecta with the tote tbh. In saying that i would be worried about the competition as well.

It is hard enough backing the winner, never mind the first 3 home !!

The Tetrarch

akelly02 wrote: »

Van dycke didn’t win at 10f + as a 2 yr old ?

Oops, that should read as a 3yo

That leaves a lot of horses who passed the four tests.
I decided to introduce two extra rules of my own
Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 3yo
Rule 6: won a Group race

Rule 5: won at 10f+ as a 2yo
Pass: Anthony Van Dyck; Bangkok; Broome; Cape Of Good Hope; Circus Maximus; Hiroshima; Humanitarian; Private Secretary; Sir Dragonet; Surfman; Telecaster
Fail: Alfaatik; Japan; Line Of Duty; Madhmoon; Mohawk; Norway; Pablo Escobarr; Sovereign

The Tetrarch

I'n not saying those rules are foolproof, or that I eliminated horses correctly using those rules.
There are always exceptions.
Rules for fools, guides for the wise.

The Tetrarch

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would prefer to do a trifecta with the tote tbh. In saying that i would be worried about the competition as well.

It is hard enough backing the winner, never mind the first 3 home !!

You can do a Trifecta with Tote UK through Betfair.
It is a good bet if you have done your analysis.
It is best to do a few combinations.
Some years they have a guaranteed pot (10k or 20k).

OK, here is the aftertiming.
I went to Epsom in 2002.
I knew High Chaparral was the winner before I went there.
After he won the Derrinstown he came into the unsaddling not in the slightest out of puff. He was ready.
I did not back him for the Derby, but did a Euro 100 double Kazzia 4/1 Oaks and High Chaparral 9/4 Derby.
On the night before the race in the hotel I split the Derby into A, B, C horses and the no hopers.
I did 12 x GBP 2 trifectas, and has the 1,2,3 in correct order, paying GBP 292.90 for GBP 1 (received GBP 484.40 for the GBP 2 stake).
High Chaparral was my banker in all the bets except one where I put Hawk Wing first.

I had 1,2,4 twice in the Oaks to a GBP 5 stake. Painful as the div in one was over 200/1.

I think in 2019 it will be Broome and Sir Dragonet with one from Circus Maximus, Mohawk, Japan.

PhuckHugh22

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would prefer to do a trifecta with the tote tbh. In saying that i would be worried about the competition as well.

It is hard enough backing the winner, never mind the first 3 home !!

A combination tricast on 8 runners(which Aidan has entered at the moment)(before taking into account Sir Dragonet) would cost 336 times your stake. Granted all of these will not run.
You can do a tricast if you want but it is a very different bet when a trainer has more than the 3 runners.

I think the price is poor enough myself but it is not the same as how what you are saying above.

The Tetrarch

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

A combination tricast on 8 runners(which Aidan has entered at the moment)(before taking into account Sir Dragonet) would cost 336 times your stake. Granted all of these will not run.
You can do a tricast if you want but it is a very different bet when a trainer has more than the 3 runners.

I think the price is poor enough myself but it is not the same as how what you are saying above.

I was talking about trifectas, which is picking the 1,2,3 in the correct finishing order.
You say tricast which I think might be 1,2,3 in any order.

I would not do all possible combinations of eight runners.
My A pick was High Chaparral
My B pick was Hawk Wing
My C picks were half a dozen other runners who might place. (C,D,E,F,G,H)

Trifectas
A,B,C - A,B,D - A,B,E - A,B,F - A,B,G - A,B,H (GBP 2 each)
A,C,B - A,D,B - A,E,B - A,F,B - A,G,B - A,H,B (GBP 1 each)
B,A,C - B,A,D - B,A,E - B,A,F (GBP 1 each)
Something like the above, picking my A choice always in 1st or 2nd, and others to finish in 3rd spot. And betting more with A in 1st spot.

If you are fairly certain of the winner then all you are doing in a Trifecta is picking horses for 2nd and 3rd.
The dividend can be big on a Trifecta, but it is a difficult task.

PhuckHugh22

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I was talking about trifectas, which is picking the 1,2,3 in the correct finishing order.
You say tricast which I think might be 1,2,3 in any order.

I would not do all possible combinations of eight runners.
My A pick was High Chaparral
My B pick was Hawk Wing
My C picks were half a dozen other runners who might place. (C,D,E,F,G,H)

Trifectas
A,B,C - A,B,D - A,B,E - A,B,F - A,B,G - A,B,H (GBP 2 each)
A,C,B - A,D,B - A,E,B - A,F,B - A,G,B - A,H,B (GBP 1 each)
B,A,C - B,A,D - B,A,E - B,A,F (GBP 1 each)
Something like the above, picking my A choice always in 1st or 2nd, and others to finish in 3rd spot. And betting more with A in 1st spot.

If you are fairly certain of the winner then all you are doing in a Trifecta is picking horses for 2nd and 3rd.
The dividend can be big on a Trifecta, but it is a difficult task.

Maybe you are confused i was talking to the other poster about a price that was offered by a bookmaker for AOB to train the first 3 home.

The Tetrarch

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Maybe you are confused i was talking to the other poster.

I was a bit.

IAMAMORON

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

A combination tricast on 8 runners(which Aidan has entered at the moment)(before taking into account Sir Dragonet) would cost 336 times your stake. Granted all of these will not run.
You can do a tricast if you want but it is a very different bet when a trainer has more than the 3 runners.

I think the price is poor enough myself but it is not the same as how what you are saying above.

I wouldn't be putting 8 different combinations for starters. You can't make money carpet bombing the bookies, they still get the angle.

Hypothetically speaking, if I pick 4 runners on a quadcast it would cost 4x3x2x1= 24 units?

A tricast would be 3*2*1 = 6 units

Correct me if I am wrong here?

PhuckHugh22

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I wouldn't be putting 8 different combinations for starters. You can't make money carpet bombing the bookies, they still get the angle.

Hypothetically speaking, if I pick 4 runners on a quadcast it would cost 4x3x2x1= 24 units?

A tricast would be 3*2*1 = 6 units

Correct me if I am wrong here?

Strictly speaking you have arrived at the right number.
So a couple of points.

If you are reffering to a Tricast with 4 selections it is still called a tricast.

So as you say a tricast with multiple selections would be like this.
With X number of selections.
(X)*(X-1)*(X-2)

So for 6 selections it would be.
6*5*4=120 combinations

IAMAMORON

PhuckHugh22 wrote: »

Strictly speaking you have arrived at the right number.
So a couple of points.

If you are reffering to a Tricast with 4 selections it is still called a tricast.

So as you say a tricast with multiple selections would be like this.
With X number of selections.
(X)*(X-1)*(X-2)

So for 6 selections it would be.
6*5*4=120 combinations

Can l not call it a thingamejig with 4 horses in it ?

PhuckHugh22

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Can l not call it a thingamejig with 4 horses in it ?

haha I mean you can call it whatever you like but i am not sure that bet exists here.
Maybe in the US

longshotvalue

The Tetrarch wrote: »

You can do a Trifecta with Tote UK through Betfair.
It is a good bet if you have done your analysis.
It is best to do a few combinations.
Some years they have a guaranteed pot (10k or 20k).

OK, here is the aftertiming.
I went to Epsom in 2002.
I knew High Chaparral was the winner before I went there.
After he won the Derrinstown he came into the unsaddling not in the slightest out of puff. He was ready.
I did not back him for the Derby, but did a Euro 100 double Kazzia 4/1 Oaks and High Chaparral 9/4 Derby.
On the night before the race in the hotel I split the Derby into A, B, C horses and the no hopers.
I did 12 x GBP 2 trifectas, and has the 1,2,3 in correct order, paying GBP 292.90 for GBP 1 (received GBP 484.40 for the GBP 2 stake).
High Chaparral was my banker in all the bets except one where I put Hawk Wing first.

I had 1,2,4 twice in the Oaks to a GBP 5 stake. Painful as the div in one was over 200/1.

I think in 2019 it will be Broome and Sir Dragonet with one from Circus Maximus, Mohawk, Japan.

Id imagine there is nothing between Japan, Circus, Mohawk and Norway, broome. The last to are 50/1 Easy game, ill be backing either of the last 2 that turn up.

Mostly Harmless

Still quite strong on Japan here, reading between lines they felt it had to run in Dante to have a chance of being ready, seems reasonable to expect a heap of improvement from that and is worth backing prior to jockey bookings imo

razorhead

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I was talking about trifectas, which is picking the 1,2,3 in the correct finishing order.
You say tricast which I think might be 1,2,3 in any order.



Both a trifecta and a tricast, the 1,2,3 have to be picked in correct order. A combination tricast which is 6 bets will cover 1,2,3 in any order. Trifecta return is generated by pool dividend while a tricast is calculated by a bookies algorithm based on odds.

PhuckHugh22

15 in it at the 5 day Dec stage. Including supplementary entries Telecaster and Sir Dragonet.
AOB with 8* of the 15 declared.

*Edit: 8 including Sir Dragonet

The Tetrarch

I have a Word file of Aidan O'Brien's English Derby runners from 1998 to 2013.
He had 8 runners in 2007.
Authorized won by 5l for Peter Chapple-Hyam (his 2nd win) and Frankie Dettori (his 1st win).
APOB 2,5,8,9,10,11,12,17

In 2001 he had one runner, Galileo, 1st.
In 2002 he had two runners, High Chaparral, 1st, Hawk Wing 2nd.

My guess is the reason for eight runners is he has so many trial winners and they all have high ratings.
Running them all probably keeps out horses with slightly lower ratings.
I am not sure but think lower rated horses are eliminated.
Maximum is 18 runners i.e. 18 stalls places.

Mostly Harmless

The Tetrarch wrote: »

I have a Word file of Aidan O'Brien's English Derby runners from 1998 to 2013.
He had 8 runners in 2007.
Authorized won by 5l for Peter Chapple-Hyam (his 2nd win) and Frankie Dettori (his 1st win).
APOB 2,5,8,9,10,11,12,17

In 2001 he had one runner, Galileo, 1st.
In 2002 he had two runners, High Chaparral, 1st, Hawk Wing 2nd.

My guess is the reason for eight runners is he has so many trial winners and they all have high ratings.
Running them all probably keeps out horses with slightly lower ratings.
I am not sure but think lower rated horses are eliminated.
Maximum is 18 runners i.e. 18 stalls places.

Surely the scale of the Ballydoyle operation in 2001/2002 and more recent years is not comparable? Would imagine they just have more horses in general now than then - this is purely conjecture from me and I have no figures to base this on.

The Tetrarch

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Surely the scale of the Ballydoyle operation in 2001/2002 and more recent years is not comparable? Would imagine they just have more horses in general now than then - this is purely conjecture from me and I have no figures to base this on.

You can find figures on the Racing Post website - A P O'Brien, Trainer

supremenovice

Will the jockey bookings influence your bet on the day? It doesn't bother me anyway. O'Brien doesn't put eejits on a horse (queue a flood of posts about Ryan Moore :rolleyes:).

Booking predictions:

Sir Dragonet - Moore
Broome - Donnacha
Japan - Seamie
Anto van Dyck - Lordan
Circus Maximus - Hussey
Cape of Good Hope - Beggy

Norway and Sovereign to be scratched at final decs.

Mostly Harmless

The Tetrarch wrote: »

You can find figures on the Racing Post website - A P O'Brien, Trainer

a cursory review suggests that the hypothesis may have some value, 200-300 runners in Ireland in early 00s versus 500-600 in last few years, can also add to that with the lads increased penchant for running multiple pacemaker types in recent years

BumperD

supremenovice wrote: »

Will the jockey bookings influence your bet on the day? It doesn't bother me anyway. O'Brien doesn't put eejits on a horse (queue a flood of posts about Ryan Moore :rolleyes:).

Booking predictions:

Sir Dragonet - Moore
Broome - Donnacha
Japan - Seamie
Anto van Dyck - Lordan
Circus Maximus - Hussey
Cape of Good Hope - Beggy

Norway and Sovereign to be scratched at final decs.

Won’t influence my bet . I’m 75% /25% Sir Dragonnet/AVD will decide on Friday

PhuckHugh22

I'd be fairly bullish that Ryan will ride AVD. So much so I bet him to ride him when PP were betting on it.
Donnacha on Sir Dragonet and Seamie on Broome.

Oh and AVD wins it.

Andrew00

Come on The Dyck

CheltenhamJ

Telecaster gets my vote and I really think Dragonnet is a lay , no way he would start at those prices if a Derby winner plus ground is a concern , Van Dyck the best of Apob

WicklowBrave

Not even gonna try and guess the jockey bookings like.

Nah f*** it I will:

Antonio The Dykemeister R L Moore
Sir Dragonet Donnacha
Broome Lanfranco
Japan Seamie
Norway Michael Hussey
Sovereign Padraig Beggy
Cape of Good Hope Lordan
Circus Maximus go France maybe or Emmet McNamara

yaboya1

Why wouldn't Moore ride Sir Dragonet?

Andrew00

Ryan will be on Sir Dragonet

Aidan will put Donnacha on Broome

Wouldn't mind Frankie on AvD

WicklowBrave

I just think Aidan will leave Ryan on AvD and Donnacha on SD. That’s what I would do anyway. I prefer horses to have the jockeys on that know them especially for the Derby, not a fan of jockey carousels.

madmoose

Articles today saying the derby will be run on fast ground, surely not so good for Sir Drag after hacking up at Chester on soft. Same could also be said for the Gosden Oaks filly that is fav.