Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

Pangea · 03-02-2013 3:17pm

MET UK Warning for the North
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&fcTime=1359806460&zoom=7&lon=-6.49&lat=54.86&regionName=ni

Issued at: 1253 on Sun 3 Feb 2013
Valid from: 1600 on Mon 4 Feb 2013
Valid to: 2359 on Mon 4 Feb 2013
Heavy, squally showers will spread to many parts of Northern Ireland and the western half of northern England during Monday, turning wintry on high ground through the middle of the day and then increasingly to lower levels during Monday evening. Showers will probably remain largely as sleet and hail along some northern and western coasts, but are likely to turn to snow inland, more certainly on ground above 100 or 200 metres elevation. 10 cm or more of snow may affect higher level routes later in the day, with drifting and temporary blizzard conditions. At lower levels, amounts of snowfall will be generally smaller and quite variable but some areas could see in excess of 5 cm of snowfall, with some drifting. Winds will gust to around 50 mph near the heavier showers but higher over hills.

The public should be aware of the potential for some disruption, especially to travel.

snaps · 03-02-2013 3:46pm

I think we all know by now that anything that comes off the Atlantic, will be poor. I'm not expecting much, would love a couple of snowy days, just for the kids sake.

Weathering · 03-02-2013 4:02pm

In my opinion less modification of the air will take place than forecast resulting in more low level snow. Tomorrow will be interesting

Pangea · 03-02-2013 4:22pm

snaps wrote: »

I think we all know by now that anything that comes off the Atlantic, will be poor. I'm not expecting much, would love a couple of snowy days, just for the kids sake.

Not always, the biggest snowfalls in the North and West can come in from the Atlantic.

lucernarian · 03-02-2013 4:39pm

Weathering wrote: »

In my opinion less modification of the air will take place than forecast resulting in more low level snow. Tomorrow will be interesting

I'm just curious, why do you think the forecasts are overestimating the heating of lower level air by the sea?

Oneiric 3 · 03-02-2013 4:42pm

whitebriar wrote: »

I think its a Gerry thing,well documented over the years on this forum.

Only by the usual one or two usual suspects in fairness.

Farming Forecast for today:

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/10107550/

I challenge anybody to say that forecast is saying anything more or less than what most of the of us on here are expecting. He mentioned snow plenty of times, mostly for high ground and maybe for lower levels by night, which going by my own experience of these set ups is pretty much on the ball. However, what is ignored is that the forecast correctly focused on the strong winds and severe wind chill, this will be the main feature over the next few days I think; ignored also is the actual shower event itself which could bring some nice thunderstorms with big hail which in my opinion is of far more of interest than any wet slushy snow that they may or not bring.

There is much more going on over the next few days than snow, but you'd swear this was the only weather type that is worth talking about and that all else is secondary. The sooner this winter season is over the better.

Pangea · 03-02-2013 4:53pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

There is much more going on over the next few days than snow, but you'd swear this was the only weather type that is worth talking about and that all else is secondary. The sooner this winter season is over the better.

Its up to people to talk about whatever interests them, no body is stopping you talking about them things, We have had the hail, lightning and winds the past week, so that is secondary to the snow for me.

Redsunset · 03-02-2013 5:02pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

The sooner this winter season is over the better.

Take a good long brake if you feel that way as this forum caters for all season enthusiasts.

Coming on here in foul humour is not the way to gain any popularity.

Lets leave it at that please.

Oneiric 3 · 03-02-2013 5:16pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Coming on here in foul humour is not the way to gain any popularity.
.

Gaining popularity is not something I am remotely interesting in, nor am I in foul humour. but I do think wrongly accusing a forecast for not saying what people want to hear is pretty unfair.

Pangea wrote:

Its up to people to talk about whatever interests them, no body is stopping you talking about them things, We have had the hail, lightning and winds the past week, so that is secondary to the snow for me.

.

I don't disagree that we all like different things but is seems that if a forecast doesn't focus 100% on snow, then it is deemed useless. All I am saying is that there is much more going on and that snow will only constitute the smaller part over the next few days.

Redsunset · 03-02-2013 5:26pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Gaining popularity is not something I am remotely interesting in, nor am I in foul humour. but I do think wrongly accusing a forecast for not saying what people want to hear is pretty unfair.

I don't disagree that we all like different things but is seems that if a forecast doesn't focus 100% on snow, then it is deemed useless. All I am saying is that there is much more going on and that snow will only constitute the smaller part over the next few days.

Snippets from OP.

We are in for some raw weather as a strong North-westerly flow introduces some polar air to Western shores.

This has all the ingredients of thunder activity.

An interesting mix of heavy rain sleet and snow showers especially over higher ground is very likely.

Oh i forgot to mention hail but a wintry mix includes just that.

By the way you forgot to quote the bit in my post about
"Lets leave it at that please".

Redsunset · 03-02-2013 5:35pm

Right call it off now.

howlinwolf · 03-02-2013 5:37pm

i find it strange that its very quiet in here even though a snow event is looking semi likely for at least some of the country no sign of some of the bigger hitters in here at all the likes of maq harps ect ect is there something they know and thats why there not getting involved ......just doesnt seem enough hype to get me anywhere near excited.....maybe that will work in eveyones favour:rolleyes:

whiteandlight · 03-02-2013 5:38pm

Parents are in the west, I'm in north Kildare. I suspect I'm going to be very frustrated this week! Tho my bro is at home doing his mocks and the bus stops running at the least bit of bad weather so he might be very happy!

whitebriar · 03-02-2013 5:46pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

i find it strange that its very quiet in here even though a snow event is looking semi likely for at least some of the country no sign of some of the bigger hitters in here at all the likes of maq harps ect ect is there something they know and thats why there not getting involved ......just doesnt seem enough hype to get me anywhere near excited.....maybe that will work in eveyones favour:rolleyes:

To be honest,this week will be interesting,not banal anyway,snow for some, but if Mt's scenario works out for the weekend and onwards,Excitement galore and 10+ pages per hour added to the new event thread.
I'm entering a read only sebatical for now also. #jadedwiththis

maquiladora · 03-02-2013 5:51pm

howlinwolf wrote: »

i find it strange that its very quiet in here even though a snow event is looking semi likely for at least some of the country no sign of some of the bigger hitters in here at all the likes of maq harps ect ect is there something they know and thats why there not getting involved ......just doesnt seem enough hype to get me anywhere near excited.....maybe that will work in eveyones favour:rolleyes:

I don't see a "snow event". I see what looks like a windy, cold period of weather with some showers of rain, hail, sleet and a risk of snow mostly confined to high ground though possible at low levels at times in certain places.

DOCARCH · 03-02-2013 5:57pm

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't see a "snow event". I see what looks like a windy, cold period of weather with some showers of rain, hail, sleet and a risk of snow mostly confined to high ground though possible at low levels at times in certain places.

I'd agree. For the moment, I reckon ME has called it right. Nothing execeptional (yet).

Gonzo · 03-02-2013 6:00pm

the reason for lack of interest is this is not gonna effect most of us and if it does it wont really amount to much more than a dusting of snow in the east. North-Westerlies just don't have the level of interest, population coverage or excitement that an easterly brings.

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2013 6:21pm

It seems primed for a 18-24 hour period where snow to low levels will be likely. From late afternoon in the northwest and from around 9pm in the east, lasting until midday or 3pm Tuesday when the developing front to the north with mixed air moves south during late Tuesday, Then a colder NNW for Wednesday.

So tomorrow night does look interesting and the chance for many areas to catch a nice puffy snow shower which could give a covering almost anywhere by Tuesday morning.

So it is interesting although likely transient.

Radar/Satellite watching from tomorrow afternoon and the watch for a possible more significant feature in assoc. with the sub -40c 500hPa air pocket early Tuesday AM

Oneiric 3 · 03-02-2013 6:25pm

Gonzo wrote: »

the reason for lack of interest is this is not gonna effect most of us and if it does it wont really amount to much more than a dusting of snow in the east. North-Westerlies just don't have the level of interest, population coverage or excitement that an easterly brings.

I wonder would it be more because those in the NW don't see anything too much out of the ordinary in the coming few days? The only ones that seem to be taking any real interest in this are those in the east. :cool:

H2UMrsRobinson · 03-02-2013 6:35pm

Whilst snow is my favourite weather type, I'm hoping more for a bit of thunder, and some big ol hailstones, not sure they're going to make it all the way over to me in north Dublin though. The west does seem to get the more violent weather, so I supposed everyone that way is de-sensitised to it. I'm not in anyway envious at all

DanRu · 03-02-2013 7:02pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

It seems primed for a 18-24 hour period where snow to low levels will be likely. From late afternoon in the northwest and from around 9pm in the east, lasting until midday or 3pm Tuesday when the developing front to the north with mixed air moves south during late Tuesday, Then a colder NNW for Wednesday.

So tomorrow night does look interesting and the chance for many areas to catch a nice puffy snow shower which could give a covering almost anywhere by Tuesday morning.

So it is interesting although likely transient.

Radar/Satellite watching from tomorrow afternoon and the watch for a possible more significant feature in assoc. with the sub -40c 500hPa air pocket early Tuesday AM

I'd be happy with that, been over 2yrs since I've seen the white stuff. A dusting would do fine to finish off this winter, anything extra down the line is a bonus. I do believe that MT is on to something and this winter is not over by a long shot.

noobsnow95 · 03-02-2013 7:06pm

what are the chance of limerick seeing some good snow or even just a dusting ?

Fluffycloud · 03-02-2013 7:08pm

I will be over the moon if I see snow this week! I think everyone is holding their breath. Will it ... Or won't it...... Roll on the white stuff.

Fuh Q · 03-02-2013 7:16pm

I wish people would read the forecasts and the posts in the thread instead of just coming in and asking what time it will snow in their garden ?
It just clutters up the thread and the posts should be deleted...

Anyway, Im in Meath and would be surprised if we get more than a light dusting of snow, Id be happy with that coz its pretty when it falls..
Looking like the northwest might need the snow shovels at the ready.
Id be more concerned about the low temps and the icy conditions expected for the end of the week.

dave1982 · 03-02-2013 7:17pm

I think these threads jinx snow in Ireland, so less that know about it the better

:D:D

Pangea · 03-02-2013 7:25pm

Looking forward to this event, should be interesting few days, not expecting any snow at me because the last time I was and nothing came. Il settle for the Strong winds and Hail which is probably a dead cert.

cherryghost · 03-02-2013 7:32pm

Have to agree with Mal on this one. It looks on the wrong side of marginal again, even moreso than last month's brief cold spell. DP has also been struggling in the last 4 runs. Lower levels in the extreme north maybe, higher levels almost a dead cert.

eskimocat · 03-02-2013 7:32pm

Gerry's forecast on RTE seem to be clear enough that there is snow on the way... actually that forecast has cheered me up. In the previous forecast at lunch time high ground was mentioned before the mention of snow, but not this time...

>>>heading to the ramping thread to let loose! :pac:

Mr Cumulonimbus · 03-02-2013 7:45pm

Good looking dew points on the 12Z NAE by midnight Mon/Tues.

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 03-02-2013 7:48pm

Well the ECM certainly isnt backing down

delw · 03-02-2013 8:02pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Well the ECM certainly isnt backing down

Yeah sticking to it's guns alright but it just doesn't seem that bad for cold or especially low level snow, -6 uppers at best through the hole run,marginal as usual or is there some thing im not seeing,maybe one of our more knowledgeable folks can explain if/where im wrong

diceyd · 03-02-2013 8:28pm

rollercoaster?i call the front seats:D

Weathering · 03-02-2013 8:37pm

I might get a bit of stick but I'm going to stick my neck out. It isn't as marginal as most think it is. There will be widespread snow to lower levels in the northern third of the country. For instance the met office forecast 2-8cm in low levels in NI

03-02-2013 8:41pm

Weathering wrote: »

I might get a bit of stick but I'm going to stick my neck out. It isn't as marginal as most think it is. There will be widespread snow to lower levels in the northern third of the country. For instance the met office forecast 2-8cm in low levels in NI

Is that not pretty marginal? 2cm of snow is equivalent to 2mm of rain, it wouldn't take much of a prediction error for most areas to end up with barely a dusting.

Weathering · 03-02-2013 8:46pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Is that not pretty marginal? 2cm of snow is equivalent to 2mm of rain, it wouldn't take much of a prediction error for most areas to end up with barely a dusting.

Why select the bottom end of the estimate,just shows you're pessimistic by nature. You could turn that around and say they're could be more than the top end and their under estimating it. Think what you want

Senna · 03-02-2013 8:46pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Is that not pretty marginal? 2cm of snow is equivalent to 2mm of rain, it wouldn't take much of a prediction error for most areas to end up with barely a dusting.

That's the lowest end of the prediction, if they said 2-3cm than that is hit or miss, but its 2-8cm so 5cm being the middle.

yorlum11 · 03-02-2013 8:48pm

Weathering wrote: »

Why select the bottom end of the estimate,just shows you're pessimistic by nature. You could turn that around and say they're could be more than the top end and their under estimating it. Think what you want

Marginal was rain/snow not the amount!!
I'm with Weathering.

03-02-2013 9:08pm

Senna wrote: »

That's the lowest end of the prediction, if they said 2-3cm than that is hit or miss, but its 2-8cm so 5cm being the middle.

Still only 5mm of "precipitation". Look at the spatial variation in rainfall last year, in some counties one weather station would have twice what another had. Maybe I'm pessimistic, I see it more as being realistic.

Weathering · 03-02-2013 9:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Still only 5mm of "precipitation". Look at the spatial variation in rainfall last year, in some counties one weather station would have twice what another had. Maybe I'm pessimistic, I see it more as being realistic.

Many factors have to be taken in to consideration when determining rain to snow conversion rates. To simply imply 1mm of rain is 1 cm of snow is in fact wrong

JanuarySnowstor · 03-02-2013 9:35pm

Looking good for us corkonians
I would expect hill snow to start to fall from teatime tomorrow with a covering of several cm's by Tuesday morning. It does look a hills only event but some disruption quite likely. We always do well out of a Northwest wind here!!
More widespread ppn during tuesday afternoon, looks more marginal by then but the fact that the ppn will be heavier may sway things in our favour, again mostly for hills and mountains.
Overall looks like a fun few days ahead with thunder also favoured

JanuarySnowstor · 03-02-2013 10:39pm

18z firms up on whiteout conditions tomorrow night
A tad colder, am thinking it may not be just a hills event!!
Several cm's of lying snow for the Western 2/3rds of the country seem likely

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2013 10:42pm

GFS 18z ramps up the precip tomorrow night. Good signs.

Some really deep convection set to fire over the Atlantic and push inland.

Going to be some could satellite/radar watching!

JanuarySnowstor · 03-02-2013 10:47pm

Tuesday afternoon remains marginal though so a lot of the snow monday night looks like getting washed away on Tuesday.
Quite odd to see such a mild sector in a Northerly flow

noobsnow95 · 03-02-2013 10:53pm

Can anyone provide a link to the 18z ?

downwiththatsor · 03-02-2013 10:59pm

noobsnow95 wrote: »

Can anyone provide a link to the 18z ?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=1

DanRu · 03-02-2013 11:05pm

Looks like a whiteout to me.

brianthomas · 03-02-2013 11:06pm

East coast (DUBLIN HERE) gonna miss out on the fun then? Dont get me wrong, we had a BLAST in 2010 but im just looking for an idea of what to expect?

ty in advance.

Brian.

DanRu · 03-02-2013 11:09pm

brianthomas wrote: »

East coast (DUBLIN HERE) gonna miss out on the fun then? Dont get me wrong, we had a BLAST in 2010 but im just looking for an idea of what to expect?

ty in advance.

Brian.

Currently looks as if the big smoke may see a dusting. Then a quick thaw.

davidsr20 · 03-02-2013 11:12pm

The big smoke always get it, now it's the wests turn

Gonzo · 03-02-2013 11:13pm

brianthomas wrote: »

East coast (DUBLIN HERE) gonna miss out on the fun then? Dont get me wrong, we had a BLAST in 2010 but im just looking for an idea of what to expect?

ty in advance.

Brian.

not sure what Dublin or the east coast counties will get till the time comes, usually the snow showers batter Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Letrim, Sligo and Donegal and die out past Athlone/Mullingar leaving dazzling sunshine by day/clear skies by night in the extreme east. IN all my experiences of these north-westerly-north events we usually end up with nothing but sometimes we have been lucky and received a dusting if the showers make it all the way across. It will take a polar low or organised band of showers to make a proper impact on Louth, Meath, Dublin etc, we just have to wait and see will this happen.

Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

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