European Parliament Elections 2019

L1011 · 12-04-2019 10:09am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

that's fine.
but now he actually has to go out and campaign on a few issues.

issues relevant to the EU and Ireland.

luckily, there are no traveller housing issues out in Luxembourg which affect us

Considering he got that vote by campaigning on issues that were irrelevant to the Presidency, what makes you think people would care about him campaigning on the same irrelevant matters again?

We may see what the protest vote / for a laugh elements of his figures were but that's about it

nice_guy80 · 12-04-2019 11:16am

L1011 wrote: »

Considering he got that vote by campaigning on issues that were irrelevant to the Presidency, what makes you think people would care about him campaigning on the same irrelevant matters again?

We may see what the protest vote / for a laugh elements of his figures were but that's about it

the presidential election was a foregone conclusion once Michael D eventually made up his mind, at the last minute
so most of the vote Casey got was because everyone knew who was going to win

L1011 · 12-04-2019 11:25am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

the presidential election was a foregone conclusion once Michael D eventually made up his mind, at the last minute
so most of the vote Casey got was because everyone knew who was going to win

I would disagree with that analysis quite strongly.

SF voters for one didn't change to Casey just because - and it's quite clear that lots did

blanch152 · 12-04-2019 11:45am

L1011 wrote: »

Considering he got that vote by campaigning on issues that were irrelevant to the Presidency, what makes you think people would care about him campaigning on the same irrelevant matters again?

We may see what the protest vote / for a laugh elements of his figures were but that's about it

I think he could take a seat. We have seen with Trump and Brexit that campaigning on the issues in modern elections isn't always the best approach, appealing to the emotions and the feelings can work if you press the right buttons.

L1011 · 12-04-2019 12:41pm

I could see him taking Ming's seat and I think we need to pay attention to his replacements list as I suspect he'd get bored

expectationlost · 12-04-2019 1:37pm

apropos of nobody how about higher qualifications for European election candidates currently you just need 60 assenters, dail is 30, locals 15 https://www.citizensinformation.ie/en/government_in_ireland/elections_and_referenda/european_elections/european_elections.html#l7b144

or you can pay 1,800 quid

average dail population is around 30k per td
average european constituency population is around 350k per MEP http://www.constituency-commission.ie/ep/docs/Report%20on%20European%20Parliament%20Constituencies%202018.pdf
so should you need 350 assenters

expectationlost · 12-04-2019 6:56pm

more Midlands Northwest candidates official listed https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/nominations including Casey

South
https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/ includes Paddy Fitzgerald, of Loughloher, Cahir, Co. Tipperary
Retired Farmer can't find anything on him

expectationlost · 13-04-2019 1:36pm

expectationlost wrote: »

don't see where in the recent bill this was addressed https://data.oireachtas.ie/ie/oireachtas/act/2019/7/eng/enacted/a0719.pdf seems like gov will have to publish another bill, the suggestion isase there are two counts to sort out who is actually shelved https://politicalreformireland.wordpress.com/2019/02/22/how-should-irelands-meps-be-elected-amidst-brexit-uncertainty/

good thread on it here https://twitter.com/antoin/status/1114569999254020097

'EU election votes may have to be counted twice due to Brexit' - Leo Varadkar

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/eu-election-votes-may-have-to-be-counted-twice-due-to-brexit-leo-varadkar-38009865.html

14-04-2019 11:22am

L1011 wrote: »

I could see him taking Ming's seat and I think we need to pay attention to his replacements list as I suspect he'd get bored

Replacements should be people who genuinely want the position. Remember the fiasco when Joe Higgins was replaced by the last name on his list, Paul Murphy, as the others weren’t available.

L1011 · 14-04-2019 12:27pm

Can't force someone to take the place if offered as it could cause severe issues - Simon Harris is first on the FG South list for the outgoing parliament as he wasn't really as critical in 2014 as now for instance

14-04-2019 1:02pm

L1011 wrote: »

Can't force someone to take the place if offered as it could cause severe issues - Simon Harris is first on the FG South list for the outgoing parliament as he wasn't really as critical in 2014 as now for instance

Was Paul Murphy even elected to anything at that time? Was he not just Joe Higgins’ secretary? It’s a crazy system. The seat should either be left vacant or a by election held to fill it.

expectationlost · 15-04-2019 11:48am

15 candidates so far in Dublin https://dublincountyreturningofficer.com/ theres Clare Daly and Gemma O'Doherty and Ben Gilroy

20 in South https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/

IDENTITY IRELAND Peter O'Loughlin
Theresa Heaney Ind
Walter Ryan-Purcell Ind https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2386780318020667&set=ecnf.100000661653086&type=3&theater
Liam Minehan Ind
Dolores J. Cahill Irexit listed as non-party
and theres mick wallace Home and Colleen Worthington and Peter Madden Allan J Brennan

https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/nominations Forms | Midlands North West, Mayo Returning Officer | Castlebar 14 candidates so far including
HEALY EAMES

An Ciarraioch · 15-04-2019 1:34pm

expectationlost wrote: »

13 candidates so far in Dublin

20 in South https://corkcityreturningofficer.com/

IDENTITY IRELAND Peter O'Loughlin
Theresa Heaney Ind
Walter Ryan-Purcell Ind https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=2386780318020667&set=ecnf.100000661653086&type=3&theater
Liam Minehan Ind
Dolores J. Cahill Irexit listed as non-party
and theres mick wallace Home and Colleen Worthington and Peter Madden Allan J Brennan

https://www.mayoreturningofficer.com/nominations Forms | Midlands North West, Mayo Returning Officer | Castlebar 14 candidates so far including
HEALY EAMES

I believe Theresa Heaney once ran for the Catholic Democrats? Peter O'Loughlin is fast becoming the new Áine Ní Chonaill in terms of repeated electoral outings.

L1011 · 15-04-2019 1:50pm

Wallace and Daly could both cause significant first preference upsets in both constituencies even if I doubt either will get in (well, South with 5 - its possible Wallace could get there)

MFPM · 15-04-2019 2:11pm

L1011 wrote: »

Wallace and Daly could both cause significant first preference upsets in both constituencies even if I doubt either will get in (well, South with 5 - its possible Wallace could get there)

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

MFPM · 15-04-2019 2:13pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Was Paul Murphy even elected to anything at that time? Was he not just Joe Higgins’ secretary? It’s a crazy system. The seat should either be left vacant or a by election held to fill it.

He was Higgin's PA and he was on the replacement list that each candidate had to submit although he was 4th or 5th on the list of replacements.

L1011 · 15-04-2019 2:31pm

MFPM wrote: »

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

Don't see her getting in - protest vote level is massively down, she is basically going to be getting similar figures to the AAA-PBP vote at best which isn't enough.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 2:34pm

MFPM wrote: »

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

Doubtful, a lot of political heavyweights in the field. Boylan, Fitzgerald and Andrews would be my call.

blackwhite · 15-04-2019 2:43pm

L1011 wrote: »

Don't see her getting in - protest vote level is massively down, she is basically going to be getting similar figures to the AAA-PBP vote at best which isn't enough.

She will potentially damage the first preferences for Lynn Boylan.

Also looking at that - does Gemma O'Doherty have a pub/restaurant in Foxrock listed as her address?

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 2:48pm

L1011 wrote: »

I could see him taking Ming's seat and I think we need to pay attention to his replacements list as I suspect he'd get bored

Ming topped the poll(100K+) last time. He'd want to fall a very long way and Casey is untested in a real election.

MFPM · 15-04-2019 2:48pm

L1011 wrote: »

Don't see her getting in - protest vote level is massively down, she is basically going to be getting similar figures to the AAA-PBP vote at best which isn't enough.

Opinion polls have independents on 20+ percent IIRC. She will poll far higher than the SOL-PBPA votes IMO - I'd be surprised if she doesn't take a seat, time will tell.

MFPM · 15-04-2019 2:50pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Doubtful, a lot of political heavyweights in the field. Boylan, Fitzgerald and Andrews would be my call.

In fairness she's as much a 'heavyweight' as any of those.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 2:53pm

MFPM wrote: »

Opinion polls have independents on 20+ percent IIRC. She will poll far higher than the SOL-PBPA votes IMO - I'd be surprised if she doesn't take a seat, time will tell.

There are seven independent types. Most will barely get to a few percentage points between them. She's up against six from the parties. Boylan may well drop but there's a seat there for FG and probably FF with who they've chosen. Ultimately being the incumbent may swing it for Boylan.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 2:57pm

MFPM wrote: »

In fairness she's as much a 'heavyweight' as any of those.

Not really. There's no comparison between 4 ex-ministers and the former leader of a party and a permanent opposition figure from a very minor political group. If you're inclined to vote for her there's also a SF candidate who can go toe to toe with her. If you're not, there's a good field of all kinds, excluding the loons and hopeless cases of course.

Remind me · 15-04-2019 3:01pm

L1011 wrote: »

Don't see her getting in - protest vote level is massively down, she is basically going to be getting similar figures to the AAA-PBP vote at best which isn't enough.

Not a Clare Daly fan but I feel she has moved on from the protest vote and, for example, some of the PQ's she submits are excellent, she seems to go after issues where she has the facts and knows the answers she wants.

MFPM · 15-04-2019 3:05pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Not really. There's no comparison between 4 ex-ministers and the former leader of a party and a permanent opposition figure from a very minor political group. If you're inclined to vote for her there's also a SF candidate who can go toe to toe with her. If you're not, there's a good field of all kinds, excluding the loons and hopeless cases of course.

That's nonsense frankly - there are loads of people who have been and are Ministers who are idiots and well you know it so stating someone has been a 'Minister' doesn't make them special. Fitzgerald didn't cover herself in glory in Justice and Andrews was part of a government that brought the country to it's knees - if that's your idea of 'heavyweight' you're entitled to it.

Anyway we'll see who's right on May 26 who's right.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 3:14pm

MFPM wrote: »

That's nonsense frankly - there are loads of people who have been and are Ministers who are idiots and well you know it so stating someone has been a 'Minister' doesn't make them special. Fitzgerald didn't cover herself in glory in Justice and Andrews was part of a government that brought the country to it's knees - if that's your idea of 'heavyweight' you're entitled to it.

Anyway we'll see who's right on May 26 who's right.

Well at least I have a definition, you have inverted commas. As Harney said one day in government is better than a lifetime in opposition. Ex-ministers tend to cover the political sweet spot, where most voters lie and recognition, for better or worse. She's not after them, she's afer Boylan.

Remind me · 15-04-2019 3:26pm

MFPM wrote: »

That's nonsense frankly - there are loads of people who have been and are Ministers who are idiots and well you know it so stating someone has been a 'Minister' doesn't make them special. Fitzgerald didn't cover herself in glory in Justice and Andrews was part of a government that brought the country to it's knees - if that's your idea of 'heavyweight' you're entitled to it.

Anyway we'll see who's right on May 26 who's right.

Fitzgerald is a former Tanaiste, Minister with various portfolios and Senator. She has also been cleared of any wrongdoing in relation to her resignation.

She is of course a political heavyweight in terms of the European Elections and the candidate list.

For Forks Sake · 15-04-2019 3:27pm

MFPM wrote: »

Daly is far more likely in Dublin, in fact I'd say she's fairly certain to get elected . Wallace is far less likely IMO but I wouldn't rule it out.

Wallaces first preference was well down at the last GE.

For Forks Sake · 15-04-2019 3:45pm

Also, isn't Ben Gilroy still in jail? Not that it's going to make any difference....

L1011 · 15-04-2019 4:18pm

is_that_so wrote: »

Ming topped the poll(100K+) last time. He'd want to fall a very long way and Casey is untested in a real election.

He's done very, very, very little and been borderline anonymous since last time.

His votes and potential Casey votes are coming from the same pool.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 4:28pm

L1011 wrote: »

He's done very, very, very little and been borderline anonymous since last time.

His votes and potential Casey votes are coming from the same pool.

As it was with Crowley in Ireland South but they continued re-electing him. I've always figured that the Euros are a case of sending someone who won't disgrace us. Ming is a known quantity, not everyone's idea of an MEP, but will retain a chunk of his votes. His website suggests he has a good set of themes he's developed and that rural connection is still there. So far there's very little from Casey apart form some loose aspirations. Then, there is the matter of where Harkin voters go. Neither tick their boxes.

blanch152 · 15-04-2019 4:31pm

There is always a springer in the Euro elections.

It could be Casey this time, or Daly in Dublin. She has certainly made the Dublin contest more interesting.

is_that_so · 15-04-2019 4:32pm

blanch152 wrote: »

There is always a springer in the Euro elections.

It could be Casey this time, or Daly in Dublin. She has certainly made the Dublin contest more interesting.

The latter is more likely but quite a challenge.

Be well and win · 15-04-2019 5:09pm

there used to be a fine tradition in the GAA of a club picking the most contrary obstreperous and negative member in the club and making them the delegate to the County Board, simply so they can feel important and to get them out of the way. There could be a similar opportunity here to move a few eejits out of the Dail and into Europe

NIMAN · 15-04-2019 5:11pm

L1011 wrote: »

He's done very, very, very little and been borderline anonymous since last time.

His votes and potential Casey votes are coming from the same pool.

So he's on the gravy train like the rest of them?

Whats the point of electing such a person so?

Edgware · 15-04-2019 6:16pm

With Wallace and Daly standing are we just going to have the scam that Sinn Fein are pulling with Matt Carthy in the West i.e. have a prominent politician run for Europe, get elected, and then when the General Election comes go for the Dail, get elected and have some gob****e of a supporter on the reserve list slip in unelected as M.E.P.

expectationlost · 15-04-2019 9:19pm

L1011 wrote: »

He's done very, very, very little and been borderline anonymous since last time.

His votes and potential Casey votes are coming from the same pool.

what did the others do that ming didn't

RainNeverBow · 15-04-2019 9:21pm

Gemma O'Doherty is currently blaming immigrants for Notre Dame burning down. It's gonna be a looooong six weeks

RainNeverBow · 15-04-2019 9:23pm

expectationlost wrote: »

what did the others do that ming didn't

Matt Carthy held at least one consultation meeting in every county on key issues. Don't remember Ming doing any of that

nice_guy80 · 15-04-2019 10:48pm

L1011 wrote: »

He's done very, very, very little and been borderline anonymous since last time.

His votes and potential Casey votes are coming from the same pool.

I'm sorry, what has Ming not done?
From what I can see he has been to the forefront in trying to get a better deal for smaller farmers, for protecting bogs, for opposing the copyright laws and highlighting the erosion of our neutrality via the EU military

expectationlost · 15-04-2019 11:22pm

RainNeverBow wrote: »

Matt Carthy held at least one consultation meeting in every county on key issues. Don't remember Ming doing any of that

when in the last year on the way up to the vote?

expectationlost · 15-04-2019 11:22pm

how will the media going to handle debates?

MFPM · 16-04-2019 8:16am

Edgware wrote: »

With Wallace and Daly standing are we just going to have the scam that Sinn Fein are pulling with Matt Carthy in the West i.e. have a prominent politician run for Europe, get elected, and then when the General Election comes go for the Dail, get elected and have some gob****e of a supporter on the reserve list slip in unelected as M.E.P.

No, they are not doing that. That question will also be posed to them in the course of the election.

Phoebas · 16-04-2019 8:29am

nice_guy80 wrote: »

I'm sorry, what has Ming not done?
From what I can see he has been to the forefront in trying to get a better deal for smaller farmers, for protecting bogs, for opposing the copyright laws and highlighting the erosion of our neutrality via the EU military

Protecting bogs????

Ming was/is PRO of the Irish Turf Cutters Association and has been to the forefront of the campaign against legislation to protect our raised bogs.

nice_guy80 · 16-04-2019 1:12pm

Phoebas wrote: »

Protecting bogs????

Ming was/is PRO of the Irish Turf Cutters Association and has been to the forefront of the campaign against legislation to protect our raised bogs.

There's a huge difference between family plots on bogs and strip mining peat companies

An Ciarraioch · 16-04-2019 1:35pm

The NI European line-up is taking shape - Diane Dodds and Martina Anderson will run again for the DUP and SF respectively, while Jim Nicholson is retiring as the UUP representative after 30 years, with Danny Kennedy his probable successor:

https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2019/04/16/news/jim-nicholson-says-he-won-t-contest-european-poll-1598611/

Increasing rumours that Colum Eastwood will run for the SDLP, and while the Alliance have yet to name their candidate, Naomi Long has traditionally been their strongest electoral performer:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/04/15/speculation-that-colum-eastwood-will-stand-for-the-european-election/

An Ciarraioch · 16-04-2019 2:22pm

In the UK, TIG officially become CHUK, and gain two former Tory MEPs:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47949665

Phoebas · 16-04-2019 2:38pm

nice_guy80 wrote: »

There's a huge difference between family plots on bogs and strip mining peat companies

Ming was supporting the mechanical exploitation of blanket bogs.

Any idea that Ming is for protecting bogs is very very wide of the mark. He opposed vital legislation to protect our bogs.

An Ciarraioch · 16-04-2019 7:14pm

Richard Dawkins wants to become a Change UK MEP:

http://twitter.com/RichardDawkins/status/1118200314660835330

European Parliament Elections 2019

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