Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Tactical · 06-01-2016 11:49pm

leahyl wrote: »

*sob :-(

I hear the Cork Snow Shield is getting dusted and checked for operational fitness...

snowstorm445 · 06-01-2016 11:50pm

Villain wrote: »

The good old pub run doesn't want to play ball

Starting to look like many other prospective cold spell in the past few years so, sigh.

Wouldn't throw in the towel just yet, but you really should never trust the models more than a few days out (I.e. 3 at most).

A shift to cold weather is probably still likely but in all likelihood given past experiences it usually gets very watered down. :rolleyes:

maquiladora · 06-01-2016 11:53pm

I told ya starting this thread would jinx it!

Oneiric 3 · 07-01-2016 12:00am

Looks like a classic 90s storm system developing in the GFS FI range with a fast moving developing depression and a rapidly destabilsing cold air mass following.

*runs

kittyn · 07-01-2016 12:01am

Not giving up from the pub run ......... Bring on the cold

)

vistafinder · 07-01-2016 12:06am

maquiladora wrote: »

I told ya starting this thread would jinx it!

Quick a Mod delete the whole lot of it fast

Its too late isnt it?

mickger844posts · 07-01-2016 12:08am

Lads we have been here many many times before. Its all part of being on that famous roller coaster. Personally i see a significant cold spell on the cards. Who gets snow and doesn't remains to be seen but thankfully an end is in sight to the miserable spell we have had. Buckle up, its going to be a rocky ride

adamstown1 · 07-01-2016 12:13am

Will it snow in my back garden next Thursday..approx 3pm...Thanks

maquiladora · 07-01-2016 12:17am

adamstown1 wrote: »

Will it snow in my back garden next Thursday..approx 3pm...Thanks

Yes.

Mech1 · 07-01-2016 12:19am

Party at Adamstown's gaff next Thursday 3pm all invited!

jack o shea · 07-01-2016 12:19am

there is a better chance of snow falling on bondi beach than there is in ireland

Rock Lesnar · 07-01-2016 12:29am

I don't care if i don't see one snowflake, i just want a spell of dry weather

TheMilkyPirate · 07-01-2016 12:29am

Haven't posted here in a while, Always lurking though.

Wouldn't be too upset about the 18z if the GFS 18z was the only model showing a very cold spell while all the rest showed normal conditions, You'd put your house on the other models so why not when roles are reversed.

You always get a few bad runs in the lead up to cold it's part of the fun.

vistafinder · 07-01-2016 12:37am

jack o shea wrote: »

there is a better chance of snow falling on bondi beach than there is in ireland

Laters

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZKvhxapM5zo

Kermit.de.frog · 07-01-2016 12:42am

jack o shea wrote: »

there is a better chance of snow falling on bondi beach than there is in ireland

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs

pauldry · 07-01-2016 1:45am

Lads. Obligatory first word.

Its my birthday on Jan 10 and Ive ordered some snow off amazon..

Hope it doesnt melt in the post

Nabber · 07-01-2016 2:24am

force eleven · 07-01-2016 5:22am

GFS later run was a bit wobbly. Still looks good for colder weather though. As always, don't worry about when where and if snow will fall. Get the building blocks in place first. Then we'll see.

BLIZZARD7 · 07-01-2016 5:35am

GFS 00z takes longer to get the cold uppers over us, however the pattern is much improved with WAA pumping up the western side of Greenland and a beautiful high blows up over Greenland with this- Atlantic completely locked off = Colder air steaming in from the north east at +180hrs onwards.

snaps · 07-01-2016 6:02am

After that gfs run, the next ecm is a huge one. The touch and go cold has been put way into fi again.
Perhaps just a blip?

Graces7 · 07-01-2016 6:08am

Saganist wrote: »

If things are still looking like this in the next few days I think it's time to

:pac::pac:

If that happened to you you would....Well stocked up here for any eventuality . Predictable gathering here! Shakes head! Ah well; up here, 400 asl South Kerry mountains I have already seen snow twice from the back door and am happy for it to stay atop. Difference between deep rural and city is that as soon as snow is mentioned city folk get over excited whereas we deep rural become very very practical and organised supply wise. My reaction thus is to check stores and make sure when I am at the garage tomorrow I bring in enough fuel etc for the duration and hoping my pension arrives today. Not a happy thought if not...Thankfully here I have a good landlord who works for the council ( roads) and the shop 2 miles away will deliver coal if need be and folk have tractors. Do not want to have to ask... Thinking though of the effect of hard frost on flooded areas.... OK, sorted!

Easterly Beasterly · 07-01-2016 7:54am

To my untrained eye it looks like there is a trend this morning to keep the really cold uppers away from us. Yesterday we were looking at -7s for Ireland looks like -4s this morning. This thing isn't nailed on yet.

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2016 8:02am

Waiting for our MT daily forecast, like I have 100 million housing shares on the Chinese stock exchange.

Easterly Beasterly · 07-01-2016 8:06am

I'm wondering though is it a case of high risk for high reward? Do you want low pressure systems to come into play to bring the potential of heavy snow? Also would it be a fair assessment that if this was the case that it would introduce more of an easterly or NE element as these run close to us with cold air in place? Sorry for the questions, I'm still learning and look at the charts as they come out and try and figure out what's happening

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2016 8:11am

I am happy with building blocks that leads to something and not below.

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2016 8:24am

MT's forecast = heart broken if that came to pass, compared to yesterdays models.

lapua20grain · 07-01-2016 8:26am

http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/35248338
look at 1:54 onwards

JanuarySnowstor · 07-01-2016 8:53am

Met eireann very cautious also
A step back this morning from ecm.
On the face of it still v good BUT the big problem is it leaves no margin for error.
The azores low travels any further north and we get a very different result

Rock Lesnar · 07-01-2016 9:17am

Does it even look like we might get a dry spell

Oneiric 3 · 07-01-2016 9:39am

EC mean showing a stronger ridge towards Greenland at day 10.

force eleven · 07-01-2016 9:51am

Bit wishy washy this morning, the outlook is not really certain. 4-6 degrees next week and drier. Odd wintry shower. Meh. Let's see as timeframes get closer.

uck51js9zml2yt · 07-01-2016 9:56am

What we want and what we need are totally opposite.
We don't need snow....but my boots arrived yesterday for real snow in February at 500 meters asl.:)

KingdomRushed · 07-01-2016 9:56am

force eleven wrote: »

Bit wishy washy this morning, the outlook is not really certain. 4-6 degrees next week and drier. Odd wintry shower. Meh. Let's see as timeframes get closer.

ECM is showing a blizzard crossing the country next Thursday. It's marginal, but on the right side of marginal, especially north of Dublin Galway line. Followed by icy air sweeping in from north. It's more than the odd wintry shower I think. Of course it will change but that's what the models are showing as of now.

Incidentally, the odd wintry shower is being reported this morning in Cork and Kerry. Snow falling in many places. People reporting it on Twitter.

maquiladora · 07-01-2016 10:14am

Personally I love seeing the GFS and ECM throwing low pressure into the mix this morning. A northerly by itself is never going to produce much more than showers in northwest /northern parts unless a polar low spins up. And I'm not a fan of cold just the sake of cold.
But eject a low from the south up against the cold air and you've got some very exciting weather potentially...The likes of which haven't been seen in decades.

screamer · 07-01-2016 10:26am

Well I love snow usually but after the deluge of rain and miserable wind for the first time ever I don't care if I don't see a single snowflake. I'll take bright set crisp mornings instead. My little girl though would love snow so if we get one day of snow like we did last year she'll be happy.
I think snow risk is always marginal in ireland so nothing new to us with these forecasts, is it?

drunkmonkey · 07-01-2016 10:36am

And it's snowing mad in Tipp : )

Graces7 · 07-01-2016 10:44am

Started a snow thread but you may want to merge it? Surrounded by snowy mountains here in South kerry. I am 400 asl and the peaks are maybe 2-3oo ft higher.. dark snow coloured clouds wading in.. will try for photos later.

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 10:46am

Easterly Beasterly wrote: »

I'm wondering though is it a case of high risk for high reward? Do you want low pressure systems to come into play to bring the potential of heavy snow? Also would it be a fair assessment that if this was the case that it would introduce more of an easterly or NE element as these run close to us with cold air in place? Sorry for the questions, I'm still learning and look at the charts as they come out and try and figure out what's happening

You don't want lows too soon in your location or you'll have a cold rainy mess on the east coast with wet snow from lamb doyles to Rathdrum
Its a case of patience for now, models will chop and change with various solutions when they're not certain of the starting point yet if you understand?
The UKMO forecasters are pretty confident that the jet will dive down to the middle if not south of France meaning I'm not confident that lows will track north of the cork or Waterford coast at their furthest during that which is a win win for dragging in more and more entrenched cold (and shower trains) from Scandinavia and the Irish sea with the same areas as 2010 favoured,given the circulation caused by Atlantic blocking and the lows if any,if you get me?

Outside of that,same scenario applies to areas favoured by northerlies and northwesterlies,so Im expecting eventually snow reports from across Ulster,Connaught and west Munster too at various times
All of the above of course comes with the caveat of if this continues to pan out as it is

Graces7 · 07-01-2016 10:49am

screamer wrote: »

Well I love snow usually but after the deluge of rain and miserable wind for the first time ever I don't care if I don't see a single snowflake. I'll take bright set crisp mornings instead. My little girl though would love snow so if we get one day of snow like we did last year she'll be happy.
I think snow risk is always marginal in ireland so nothing new to us with these forecasts, is it?

I love to see the mountain peaks snow sprinkled as they are now, the nearer back layer deeper and the range behind that thickly covered. The beauty without the hassle; and there IS hassle for so many as we are so bad at dealing with snow in this country. I lived years on a small Scottish island and they knew how to deal with snow there. The rubbish collecting lorry had a snow plough attachment and if that got stuck, there were tractor and it made great spectator stuff from the safety of the cottage. My home help there would arrive on her husband's tractor with my shopping.

Graces7 · 07-01-2016 10:51am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

You don't want lows too soon in your location or you'll have a cold rainy mess on the east coast with wet snow from lamb doyles to Rathdrum
Its a case of patience for now, models will chop and change with various solutions when they're not certain of the starting point yet if you understand?
The UKMO forecasters are pretty confident that the jet will dive down to the middle if not south of France meaning I'm not confident that lows will track north of the cork or Waterford coast at their furthest during that which is a win win for dragging in more and more entrenched cold (and shower trains) from Scandinavia and the Irish sea with the same areas as 2010 favoured,given the circulation caused by Atlantic blocking and the lows if any,if you get me?

Outside of that,same scenario applies to areas favoured by northerlies and northwesterlies,so Im expecting eventually snow reports from across Ulster,Connaught and west Munster too at various times
All of the above of course comes with the caveat of if this continues to pan out as it is[/QUOTE Already in from South Kerry...

WheatenBriar · 07-01-2016 10:56am

Graces7 wrote: »

WheatenBriar wrote: »

You don't want lows too soon in your location or you'll have a cold rainy mess on the east coast with wet snow from lamb doyles to Rathdrum
Its a case of patience for now, models will chop and change with various solutions when they're not certain of the starting point yet if you understand?
The UKMO forecasters are pretty confident that the jet will dive down to the middle if not south of France meaning I'm not confident that lows will track north of the cork or Waterford coast at their furthest during that which is a win win for dragging in more and more entrenched cold (and shower trains) from Scandinavia and the Irish sea with the same areas as 2010 favoured,given the circulation caused by Atlantic blocking and the lows if any,if you get me?

Outside of that,same scenario applies to areas favoured by northerlies and northwesterlies,so Im expecting eventually snow reports from across Ulster,Connaught and west Munster too at various times
All of the above of course comes with the caveat of if this continues to pan out as it is[/QUOTE Already in from South Kerry...

Aye, I know Grace's, but at 400ft asl in S Kerry, being near enough to both the Atlantic and mountains what youve had up to now would be a frost comoared to what potentially could come,you might be pushing out the door sometimes, you might not but stay tuned as we know you will

ninebeanrows · 07-01-2016 11:03am

Let's put things in perspective. A few days ago, the idea of synoptics like these occurring seemed a extreme long shot. Now there is a good chance of a SIG. Cold spell.

No point getting caught up in specifics yet, just allow the models to evolve in coming days. The trend is good. Next week we will get a big cool down, and a further leg down is looking more and more likely thereafter.

Super-Rush · 07-01-2016 11:09am

Small sleet shower just passed over here in Kilkenny.

Larbre34 · 07-01-2016 11:15am

The only thing I want to see is a significant drop off in rainfall, if that comes with a very frosty spell, so much the better. As for wintry precip, I'll be interested if it verifies at -36hrs.

rickdangerouss · 07-01-2016 11:17am

After this mornings trends, my office day is ending up like this...

maquiladora · 07-01-2016 11:22am

Tactical · 07-01-2016 11:24am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7RDAdXO0NM

Graces7 wrote: »

Started a snow thread but you may want to merge it? Surrounded by snowy mountains here in South kerry. I am 400 asl and the peaks are maybe 2-3oo ft higher.. dark snow coloured clouds wading in.. will try for photos later.

After an earlier sleet shower, there was a decent snow shower here at 400 feet asl in West Limerick.

TheMilkyPirate · 07-01-2016 11:33am

maquiladora wrote: »

That's a great chart.

Graces7 · 07-01-2016 11:36am

WheatenBriar wrote: »

Graces7 wrote: »

Aye, I know Grace's, but at 400ft asl in S Kerry, being near enough to both the Atlantic and mountains what youve had up to now would be a frost comoared to what potentially could come,you might be pushing out the door sometimes, you might not but stay tuned as we know you will

It is totally beautiful and not to be minimised! Utterly lovely! And the snow here is much higher than my 400 asl... I am too old to be melodramatic! And my doors open inwards like all sensible doors Family in Canada last winter were hemmed in by ten feet of ice last winter. They prepare well there

Easterly Beasterly · 07-01-2016 11:41am

Any chance of a quick synopsis of this please Maq?
Cheers

Cold Spell January 9th to 16th 2016

Comments