Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Wednesday, 30 November, 2011
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ALERT for strong winds and squally showers becoming mixed with hail and hill snow this evening in northwest Ireland.

TODAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain, becoming squally by afternoon with increasing SSW winds 35-55 mph veering to W 35-55 mph briefly this evening, possible hail and thunder, snow on hills by this evening. Highs 8-11 C but temperatures will fall several degrees with the passage of a cold front around 5-7 p.m. ... rainfalls generally 15-25 mms.

TONIGHT ... Windy and cold, mixed wintry showers becoming more confined to Donegal, Mayo and nearby counties as well as parts of west Munster. Not as windy after midnight as westerlies shift to WNW 15-30 mph. It may remain quite stormy in north Donegal and Derry-Antrim, part of an ongoing windstorm for western Scotland. Lows well inland and east, south coasts 2-4 C but holding near 5-6 C west coast.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud with some longer sunny intervals in the east-central counties to south coast, isolated showers mainly in Connacht and west Ulster. Highs 6-8 C, cool westerly to northwesterly breezes. There may be a period of rain by evening across the south. Roads becoming slippery after sunset away from milder south and west coasts.

FRIDAY ... Overnight clear periods especially north and east may produce light scattered frost, lows -1 to +3 C, then increasing cloud, breezy to windy (WSW 30-50 mph), highs 9-11 C, showers or periods of rain, becoming squally again by the overnight period.

SATURDAY ... Windy and cold, mixed wintry showers, winds WNW 30-50 mph and lows near 2 C, highs 5-8 C. Some snow on northern hills but hail and thunder quite widespread.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, then overcast with rain at times, becoming windy and turning colder again after reaching a high near 10 C mid-day. Winds veering SW to NW 30-50 mph (this could prove conservative) and showers becoming wintry late in the day as temperatures fall steadily.

MONDAY ... Windy and very cold, mixed wintry showers. Lows near -1 C and highs only 4-7 C.

OUTLOOK ... The fast westerly regime of rather cold "maritime polar" air masses will continue for a while, the next energy impulse is timed for mid to late Tuesday, then Wednesday could be another cold and squally day. Eventually this pattern should relax to a milder WSW flow but it could remain windy and unsettled with that.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Northeast states will see passing showers and the end of a mild spell with morning highs 14-16 C followed by a gradual cooling trend from the much colder air already present from Great Lakes south to the Carolinas. Highs of about 3-7 C in this region, colder at elevation with some snow in mountains of VA and WV central PA and later into higher parts of NY and New England. Central states warming up gradually ahead of a Pacific northwest low bringing mixed rain and wet snow across the western mountain ranges. This is interacting with seasonably cold air over the prairies of Canada to create upslope snowfalls near Calgary of 15 cms locally. Eventually a major snowstorm could develop in Colorado later in the week and a strong high will build over the west coast after today's weak outbreak of rain and hill snows.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Rain at times, gloomy but not very windy, about 7 or 8 C for the high on Monday.

Friday, 2 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Overcast, becoming windy with periods of rain developing from west to east (dry until about mid-day in east) ... winds WSW 30-50 mph by late morning and through the afternoon ... highs 8-11 C, potential for 10-20 mms of rain.

TONIGHT ... Variable cloud, passing showers becoming mixed with hail in northwest, possible snow on hills, winds WNW 20-40 mph, cold with lows around 2-5 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy to windy, and cold ... winds WNW 25-45 mph, mixed wintry showers developing in parts of Connacht and Ulster, snow on higher terrain, fewer showers in general in south and east and these mainly rain with some hail, amounts 1-4 mms ... highs 6-8 C.

SUNDAY ... Early morning icy sections on some roads and isolated frost in sheltered valleys, lows -2 to +3 C ... daytime partly cloudy to overcast, windy and cold, mixed wintry showers with potential for 3-5 cms of snow on higher terrain in northwest ... highs 5-8 C. Winds WNW 30-50 mph.

MONDAY ... Little change from Sunday, windy and cold, mixed showers, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C. Further accumulations of snow on hills in the north and west. Winds WNW 25-45 mph.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... Somewhat milder again, frequent showers or periods of rain, no frost but feeling cold in the strong winds, lows near 3-4 C and highs 9-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... The models have generally abandoned speculation about very strong winds in the outlook period ... considering their performance at that time range, this may mean they are finally about to happen (do you share my frustration?) ... the pattern indicated is basically more of the same, a parade of rather moderate systems in a cold to near normal regime.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The main feature is a sprawling high over central and eastern regions which is bringing dry, seasonable conditions to the east and promoting a milder flow into parts of the central plains. Yesterday, a storm developing over Arizona and Utah produced some very strong wind gusts into California and these may continue for part of today, with snow at higher elevations of the desert southwest and chilly rains in the valleys there. Highs may be held down to 10-15 C at best and -5 C on the higher plateaux (where I was baking in 35 C sunshine three months ago watching thunderstorms develop).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... The first day of December was a dry, partly sunny day with increasing higher cloud, and cold at about 3-4 C.

Sunday, 4 December, 2011
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ALERT for wintry showers including some lying snow most likely in higher northern districts but possible for briefer intervals almost anywhere over the next two days. Roads may become slippery or even icy especially through higher sections of the northwest.

TODAY ... Windy and cold with showers becoming increasingly mixed with hail and snow, with eventual accumulations appearing on northern hills (3-5 cms) with a slight risk of thunder. A few sunny intervals will be mixed in for eastern and southern counties. Highs 5-7 C north to 7-10 C south. Winds WNW 25-45 mph with some higher gusts near west and north coasts.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers continuing with some significant falls of snow in parts of Ulster and north Connacht. Local depths of 3-5 cms additional. The mix will be more rain than frozen precip towards Dublin and the southeast coast but elevation will play an important role. Winds WNW 20-40 mph and lows 1-3 C.

MONDAY ... Windy and very cold with passing wintry showers, some snow could fall almost anywhere in the mix, but 5-8 cms could fall in exposed parts of the north and northwest, as well as on higher terrain in the south and southeast. Some sunny breaks will develop in the lee of higher ground mainly. Highs 4-7 C and winds NW 25-45 mph.

TUESDAY ... Winds not as strong for part of the day, after a cold start with lows near -2 C in some inland areas, partly cloudy with more isolated showers, still some wintry, then winds increasing late in the day with rising temperatures, WSW 30-50 mph by evening. Highs by evening 8-10 C.

WEDNESDAY ... A period of overnight (early morning) wind and rain, pushing freezing levels back up to near summits, temperatures steady 7-9 C, becoming very windy at times (W 35-55 mph) with slowly falling temperatures, returning to a mix of wintry showers later, as temperatures fall to near 5 C by evening.

THURSDAY ... Windy and cold, mixed wintry showers, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C at most.

FRIDAY ... Windy and very cold, a chance of significant snowfalls in the north, lows near zero and highs near 5 C.

OUTLOOK ... Milder towards the weekend, details are rather uncertain, but it appears likely to return to at least normal temperature levels (highs 8-10 C) if not perhaps a little above that eventually.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The mild, dry spell (highs 14-17 C) will be confined to the east coast as rain moves north in the mid-section of the U.S. towards the lower Great Lakes and Ohio valley, while snow spreads into the upper Midwest and western to northern Great Lakes. Some falls of 10-20 cms possible there. Cold air is left over from the southwest storm but precip will be more isolated, mountain snow and valley showers. A stagnant high over the west coast (near my location) is spreading dry, cloudy weather into the Pacific northwest, but cold northerly winds around this high are spreading some snow and sub-freezing if not unseasonably cold weather south from the arctic across western Canada into the northern plains states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a cloudy, almost calm day under strong high pressure. The high was about 5 C. It has only fallen a degree or two this evening with patchy drizzle.

Tuesday, 6 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Some bright or sunny intervals in eastern counties this morning, otherwise mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain (sleet at first on higher northern hills) in a raw westerly breeze, 15-30 mph rising later to 25-45 mph. Some squally showers late afternoon or evening. Highs 8-10 C occurring late afternoon or evening.

TONIGHT ... Windy, raw, showers with some sleet or hail on higher terrain, as mild air comes and goes rather quickly, leaving temperatures closer to 5 C after midnight. Winds westerly 25-45 mph.

WEDNESDAY ... Variable cloud, passing showers of rain or hail, with snow reappearing in higher terrain by afternoon, winds WNW 30-50 mph, highs about 8 C.

THURSDAY ... Milder with rain during the morning, temperatures steady 9-11 C until mid-day, then squally showers, turning much colder especially in north and northwest, as winds veer SW 30-50 mph to NW 40-60 mph ... squally mixed showers later, temperatures rapidly decreasing to about 3 C by evening and possibly as cold as -1 C by midnight. The overnight period will be very cold and windy with possible near-blizzard conditions developing in the north and higher inland parts of the west, and some of the heavier snow may reach further east and south as flurries at times, winds NW 45-70 mph in exposed areas (30-50 mph generally). Some snowfalls of 5-15 cms possible in parts of Ulster and north Connacht.

FRIDAY ... The windy, cold and (in north) snowy conditions will gradually give way to partly cloudy and cool conditions with less blustery NW winds at 20-40 mph by afternoon, highs 3-5 C.

SATURDAY ... Severe frost to start, lows -4 C on average, then partly cloudy to sunny, cool, highs 2-5 C. Much less windy.

SUNDAY ... Cloudy, showers turning to periods of rain, may begin as sleet in higher parts of north, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C.

OUTLOOK ... Monday showery, milder ... becoming very windy and possibly stormy by Monday night into Tuesday ... watching possible development of a severe windstorm in Connacht and west Ulster. With this, the temperatures would be 5-8 C so precipitation mainly rain with some hail. The rest of the week appears likely to remain unsettled and rather cool.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mild with rain in the coastal northeast U.S., highs about 15 C. Mixed rain and wet snow over inland parts of the northeast with highs 2-5 C. Snow developing over the western Great Lakes, 3-5 cms in places, highs near 1 C. Cold and windy further west, trending to milder near the Rockies with a chinook developing there. Sunny and cool in southern B.C. and parts of the Pacific northwest, while the southwest states continue to recover back to seasonable mild weather in the 15-20 C range.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was sunny and cool with a high of about 5 deg C, and tonight it is clear and frosty with a nice view of the Moon close to Jupiter (you might have seen these setting if you looked out to the southwest before sunrise).

Thursday, 8 December, 2011
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ALERT for very strong winds in most regions, storm force gusts in the north and some exposed parts of west-central Ireland, also some snow developing rather quickly as temperatures drop rapidly this afternoon, snowfalls of 5-15 cms possible in parts of the north overnight.

TODAY ... Becoming stormy especially in the northwest, as winds increase to SW 45-65 mph then veer rapidly to NW 50-75 mph (these values may be reduced by 10-15 mph in sheltered parts of southeast), with squally showers, hail and thunder developing around 10h west to 13h east, turning to sleet then snow in parts of the north as near-blizzard conditions rapidly develop there mixed with hail at times, and possibly some thunder-snow. Conditions will be variable as streamers develop in strong northwest winds.

Only flurries are likely in most other regions and some sunny intervals may develop, with passing showers of hail, sleet and snow. Expect a very rapid decline in temperatures this afternoon and possible icy sections on northern roads, and elsewhere on higher terrain. Morning highs 9-11 C mid-day then a rapid fall in temperatures to near 2 C by sunset.

Donegal and nearby counties -- special alert issued for dangerous driving conditions, avoid unnecessary travel due to strong wind gusts, wind shear and local hail or snow making roads very slippery.

TONIGHT ... Continuing stormy in Ulster, winds gradually abating elsewhere. Snow may continue at least intermittently in Ulster and some nearby parts of Connacht, Leinster, with 5-15 cms possible in total on higher terrain. Mixed wintry showers likely in all regions, some snow could fall almost anywhere as lows reach -2 C inland. Winds NW 50-70 mph in exposed areas until midnight then falling gradually to 30-50 mph by sunrise.

FRIDAY ... Winds should continue to moderate to NW 20-30 mph and most of the wintry showers or snow should end before mid-day to leave partly cloudy and very cold conditions with highs only 3-5 C at best. Some isolated further accumulations of snow especially in Antrim which will see the latest termination of the stormy conditions. For anyone travelling or reading this in Britain, stormy conditions can be expected to continue in many regions all day there.

SATURDAY ... Severe morning frosts with lows -5 to -2 C then cold sunshine with increasing high cloud, light winds, highs near 3 C. Some sleet or drizzle may develop in west by end of the day. Winds rising in the evening from a southerly direction to 30-40 mph, rain spreading into southwest.

SUNDAY ... Although it may start as wet snow or sleet, occasional rain appears likely by morning. Partial clearing with blustery west winds developing, 30-50 mph, mixed wintry showers redeveloping as temperatures stall near overnight lows of 3-5 C and even fall to some extent.

MONDAY ... Continuing the ADVANCE ALERT for potentially very windy or stormy conditions spreading rapidly into the west mid-day and reaching all other regions by midnight. Very windy with rain, quite mild Monday, highs reaching 12 C, winds increasing to SW 40-60 mph, then storm force gusts developing overnight.

TUESDAY will continue very windy or stormy with squally showers, followed later by wintry showers. There appears to be potential for 60-90 mph winds (SW veering W) during this storm on the currently depicted consensus track. Temperatures will fall sharply on Tuesday with sleet and snow developing in many parts of the west, more showery further east, as temperatures fall off to about 2-4 C.

OUTLOOK ... Cold and windy on Wednesday, scattered snow showers, then yet another storm possible on Thursday into Friday ... this one is by no means "carved in stone" yet but early suggestions show the potential of strong winds in the south with a track across Ireland rather than Donegal Bay. This cold, unsettled pattern with the odd milder day should continue although possibly with a generally upward temperature trend towards Christmas.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Persistent rain in the northeast states finally ending with a bit of sleet or wet snow near the end although accumulations in some northern suburbs of the larger cities and certainly into rural areas nearby; however, there is no strong push of cold air and several days of dry, seasonable temperatures likely to follow the storm, which is about to bomb over eastern Canada late today, bringing them some heavy rain coastal areas, heavy snow inland (in NB, PEI, then Newfoundland).

It remains dry and somewhat colder than normal in the central states, with a milder trend likely to develop, and it's quite cold in western Canada especially east of the Rockies, while it stays cool and dry closer to the coast, under high pressure located just offshore but ridging inland towards northern Alberta. This pattern will promote a warm southeast flow into the desert southwest replacing the week-long cold snap with warmer than normal temperatures now, eventually reaching 25-30 C in places.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... After a cloudy start, the sun came out and it was pleasant although quite cold, highs near 3 C on Wednesday. Clear with some cloudy intervals overnight, frosty.

Watch for updates and be ready for fast changes today, and lots of chat in the forum threads on this storm as well as the next one (Monday-Tuesday).

Saturday, 10 December, 2011
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ALERT for icy roads this morning in parts of southeast, central and north-central Ireland until 10:00 (and later in highest elevations) ... ADVANCE ALERT continued for outbreaks of heavy rainfalls and very strong winds Monday-Tuesday, and apparently Thursday-Friday ... details remain somewhat uncertain.

Full moon today at 14:36 GMT ... an eclipse of the Moon takes place visible in Asia, Australia and the Pacific regions.

TODAY ... Eastern counties may enjoy some sunshine at times, while the west sees more cloud and scattered light (and rather sleety) showers. Some icy roads may be encountered until frost breaks around 0930 or so. After that it may warm up slightly with highs 5-8 C. A more organized band of rain with high elevation sleet or wet snow will develop across the west by afternoon and evening. Winds will back to southerly and increase to moderate 20-35 mph later.

TONIGHT ... Periods of light rain (3-7 mms on average) with hill sleet or snow, foggy, partial clearing from west towards sunrise with winds veering to westerly 20-40 mph, lows 2-5 C (milder east).

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, passing sleety or even wintry showers, cold, winds westerly 25-40 mph, highs 6-9 C.

SUNDAY NIGHT ... Icy sections on roads for part of the night where skies clear, slight frost, then turning milder in a rising southerly wind, lows -2 to +3.

MONDAY ... Becoming very mild with periods of rain, heavy at times, 20-40 mms potential, winds SSW 30-50 mph and potentially stormy by evening with gusts to 65 mph. Highs 11-13 C.

MONDAY NIGHT & TUESDAY ... Very windy with a sharp drop in temperatures leading to more of a wintry mix in showers of hail, sleet and snow (cold rain on south coast) ... winds may be as strong as 50-80 mph and could reach storm force in parts of Connacht and Ulster. Temperatures will fall overnight and become steady in the range 3-5 C if not slightly colder in higher elevations on Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY ... Continuing windy with the risk of a renewed outbreak of severe wind gusts, but certainly at least 35-55 mph westerly possibly backing to southerly later, chilly although becoming slightly milder with lows near 2 C and highs near 7 C.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY ... Models currently warn of a very intense low tracking close to Ireland ... details are bound to change but there is potential for storm force winds gusting over 80 mph from southwest veering to west with this system, so stay tuned ... temperatures would most likely moderate to about 8-10 C given the track and another episode of 20-30 mms rain could accompany. Wintry showers would likely follow by late Friday.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... If you can take any more weather, it will likely be coming from more of a cold northerly direction by the following weekend and then eventually a milder southwest flow seems to dominate the longer-range guidance in the week before Christmas.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The energy that will develop into the Monday night storm for Ireland is currently nothing more than a weak windshift through eastern Canada and New England with a few flurries and temperatures near freezing. Development begins later today when this gets over the Gulf stream south of Nova Scotia. With the exception of this weak system, most of eastern and central North America are dry and relatively mild or at least seasonable. A chinoook has developed into Alberta and western Saskatchewan, but the west coast remains dry and rather cold. The southwest states are warming up in a southeast flow.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was another unusually calm and clear day with highs near 4 C ... frosty with a bright full moon at present ... that will set in an eclipsed state towards 0700h here, doubt that I will see it.

There is still considerable uncertainty about how severe the winds may become on Monday night, visit the ongoing discussion thread to find out the latest speculation from the forum crew. Same goes for the second storm (some suggestions of a more continuous storm linking through Wednesday), the forum is bound to be busy all weekend. Would suggest that if you have things to store or tie down, do it today or Sunday if you find a few hours of settled weather as Monday may become too wet and windy for comfort.

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11 December _ 7:45 p.m.
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A few wintry showers can be expected on a hit and miss scattered basis this evening and towards midnight before the band dies out over eastern counties. There are some reports of thunder in the southwest with these, expect the usual variations with elevation, rain near sea level, hail a little higher up and sleet or snow on hills, but some places remaining dry. A slight frost may follow and roads could become very icy in some parts of the inland south later this evening, with improvements coming later in the night as temperatures will tend to rise before morning in the onset of a southerly wind that will eventually rise to almost gale force in places on Monday. See the original forecast for further details moving forward, no big changes to outlook on the period Monday to Wednesday.

At the moment, the Thursday-Friday storm potential has been cast in some doubt by completely different outcomes on the various models we use, and all we can really say at this point is to maintain a watch for potential storm conditions, with the next round of intermediate forecasts due around 10 p.m. (watch for comments to update on the discussion thread) with the 18z GFS model, then the more comprehensive updates at about 0400h with the whole suite of models giving their 00z forecasts. I really don't have a strong feeling either way on this, but the abrupt changes that we have seen on the European model could be due to some factor not incorporated into the other models' data, whether in error or as an improvement, just not sure. Of course I continue to hope this storm does not come off the way some models have shown because of the damage potential. -- MTC

Sunny and 3 deg C here at 11:45, heading out to work on my tan. :cool:

UPDATE _ Monday, 12 December _ 4:20 p.m.
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Latest guidance has required stronger wording for the ALERT for strong winds on Tuesday in Connacht and west Ulster, as well as Clare and some parts of Kerry ... WSW storm force winds are likely to set in around 0600-0800h with sustained wind speeds of 60 mph (100 km/hr) and gusts to 100 mph (160 km/hr) in the most exposed locations, and in the range of 50-80 mph in most parts of the region. These winds may be strong enough to do moderate damage to structures and trees. Any loose objects or poorly secured structures will certainly be at risk of relocation. Take any opportunity this evening or overnight to complete preparations.

With this very strong wind flow, a witches' brew of mixed wintry precipitation appears likely to develop. Blizzard conditions will spread across higher parts of the country while somewhat lower elevations will be subject to constantly changing precipitation types. Hail and rain will dominate near sea level but it could snow at times there too. As usual, some parts of the southeast will be sheltered from both the strong winds and much of the precipitation.

Travel is strongly discouraged in western and northern counties; elsewhere, consider an alternative time for any travel out of local areas, especially where it involves higher terrain.

Wednesday, 14 December, 2011
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ALERT for some localized ice and snow mostly in higher parts of southwest and north today ... some squally showers later ... and the risk of strong wind gusts near the south coast mid-day.

TODAY ... Mostly cloudy although with some brighter intervals eastern counties, widespread wintry showers with some ice and snow mainly above 150m (some melting in that zone later) and hail or rain showers lower down, the heavier showers mostly in western and especially south-western counties today. Amounts 5-10 mms or equivalent in west, 1-3 east. Winds increasing across the south to reach SSW 30-50 mph, risk of stronger gusts, then veering to WNW 30-50 mph mid-afternoon. Winds across the north and near the east coast are likely to remain relatively moderate. Highs 4-7 C except briefly 8-10 C south Kerry and possibly around Cork. Some thunder and heavy hail likely mid-day in west Munster.

TONIGHT ... Wintry showers at times, moderate westerly winds, cold or very cold, lows -3 to +1 C. Winds W 15-30 mph.

THURSDAY ... Variable cloud, outbreaks of light sleet or wet snow, winds becoming variable although mainly southwest across west and north to east across the east. Some locally heavier snowfalls could develop on a trough in central counties. Slight risk of a period of rain and strong winds in southeast around evening. Highs 4-7 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and cold with outbreaks of hail and snow, lows near 2 C but some local frosts, then highs near 5 C. Winds increasing to NW 30-50 mph, snow generally light but some accumulations 3-7 cms. Hail or rain showers in outer west coastal fringes.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Both days rather cold with some sunshine, some passing snow or hail showers. Winds moderate or light, mainly north to northwest. Lows around -3 C and highs around 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Very mild for about a week, possibly dry if cloudy, moderate west to southwest winds, highs possibly reaching 9-12 C just before Christmas. Early indications for Christmas, windy and mild, possible showers, followed by a steady if perhaps slight cooling trend on more of a northwest flow.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Eastern U.S. partly cloudy and turning very mild, highs 14-17 C. Further west, cloudy, humid, warm with outbreaks of light rain, southerly winds, highs 15-20 C. This system has a bit of sleet on its colder northwest margins but not much snow, then to the north across northern plains and prairies, relatively cold with some ice fog and low cloud, light snow in places ahead of weak fronts coming inland, and light snow over the western mountains in some places, trending to near normal/dry in the southwest.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Another dry and cool day here, but with a mid-level overcast this time, highs 2-3 C. Expecting some light snow or sleet next couple of days, nothing very heavy.

Friday, 16 December, 2011
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ALERT for further snowfalls of 1-3 cms in some western counties, and icy roads especially problematic in central counties to mid-morning. Further outbreaks of light snow and overnight icy roads can be expected until Monday morning.

TODAY ... Snow showers in some western counties will give a further 1-3 cms before either ending or turning to sleet. Less showery in eastern counties but still the risk of mixed wintry showers. Cold with moderate W to NW winds 20-40 mph, highs 3-5 C.

TONIGHT ... Moderate or even heavy snow showers (potential for 3-8 cms) may develop inland northwest, with sleet showers closer to sea level. This activity will extend into other regions although not as heavy later in the night. Cold, especially ahead of the snow in any clear spells, lows -3 to zero C. Icy roads are likely to become quite widespread outside the major cities and a few very temperate coastal locations.

SATURDAY ... Variable cloud, further snow showers likely (2-5 cms) with some turning to hail, sleet or rain mid-day in strong NW winds 30-50 mph, cold with highs 3-6 C.

SUNDAY ... After some overnight frost and light snow in a few locations (icy roads again a problem) expect some sunny breaks and less windy, not feeling as cold, lows -4 to zero C, highs 4-8 C.

MONDAY ... Turning milder with drizzle or light rain, some fog or mist, winds westerly 20-30 mph, lows near 2 C and highs near 9 C.

TUES-WED ... Very mild, cloudy for most, some light rain possible in north, moderate SW to W winds stronger in north, lows around 3 C and highs 11-13.

OUTLOOK ... Towards Christmas Eve, expect a gradual increase in wind speeds and frequency of showers in a mild southwest flow, temperatures above normal 22nd-24th (highs 10-12 C) ... around Christmas Day it may become quite windy although staying relatively mild (8-10 C) with drizzle or light rain at times in strong westerly winds. Beyond that, looks more seasonable with no clear-cut signs of much colder weather yet.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The northeast U.S. will see rain and a late cooling trend after highs near 14 C. Great Lakes, closer to normal, mixed light rain or wet snow showers, highs 0-3 C. Southeast states remain quite warm and rain is slowly advancing south but many areas will remain dry if not sunny and warm (18-22 C). Central plains into central-western Canada under a much colder air mass with sub-freezing temperatures and some light snow in places. Light snow over western mountain ranges, cloudy and cool near west coast.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was cloudy with drizzle ending this morning, temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C, light northwest wind flow.

Sunday, 18 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Cold to start with some patchy ice on untreated roads (more likely in the inland southeast, east and north) ... sunny intervals for most, widely scattered light wintry showers across western counties ... moderate west winds, then increasing cloud and light rain spreading in this evening. Highs in the range of 6-9 C.

TONIGHT ... Light rain in some parts of the west, clear spells across eastern counties may allow some brief frost before temperatures rise there, by later tonight generally 4-7 C ... foggy in some parts by morning.

MONDAY ... Light rain or showers, becoming rather windy (SW veering to NW at 30-50 mph), sunny breaks by afternoon, highs 7-10 C.

TUESDAY ... After a rather cold start (isolated frost) with lows -1 to +3 C, the day should become milder with increasing cloud, light rain possible in north, westerly winds 25-45 mph, highs 8-11 C.

WED - THURS ... Very mild in a moderate to strong WSW flow (stronger winds in north) ... dry for most, some light rain at times in northwest ... lows near 3 and highs 11-13 C. Winds WSW 35-55 mph in north (20-40 mph southeast counties).

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain, winds SW 40-60 mph, mild, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C.

OUTLOOK for CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD ... Saturday (24th) likely to be a bright, breezy day with strong westerly winds, highs near 9 C ... Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day look windy and mild again, similar to mid-week.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Some further strong winds in frontal passages, but perhaps a gradual trend to closer high pressure by New Years. This may result in a decline in the mild temperatures if only because of colder nights and persistent inversions. To get to a truly cold pattern, probably we would need to see these highs continue to drift north or northwest over time and allow easterly winds to develop. That may be the eventual outcome but it could take until mid-January to see that kind of deep cold.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Cool and dry in most eastern regions of the U.S. and Canada under a modified arctic high, temperatures near normal which would be 3-7 C for highs in the northeast states and 0-3 C in the Great lakes. Milder central states and some parts of western Canada as an "Alberta clipper" moves across the prairies dropping light snows and turning the winds to west and then northwest in parts of Alberta (and then further east on Sunday) ... much of the interior western U.S. is cold and clear under strong high pressure but that contributes to warmer Santa Ana winds in southern California, and a developing sleet-snow mix over the western parts of Texas and nearby parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a very mild and cloudy day, possibly the first above-normal day we've had here in several weeks, with a high of about 11 C. Light rain has developed this evening.

Tuesday, 20 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Variable cloud, light rain possible in north at times, westerly winds 25-45 mph in some more exposed coastal locations but otherwise rather light for most places today, highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Mild and overcast with light rain at times, fog patches, lows 6 to 9 C with winds backing to southerly.

WEDNESDAY ... Very mild and breezy with some rain at times in north, possible hazy sunshine at times in south, strong WSW winds in north (35-55 mph) although only 20-40 mph for southeast counties, highs 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... Continuing very mild and windy with scattered outbreaks of rain becoming heavier by late afternoon and evening, potential for 15-30 mms, winds SW 35-55 mph (45-65 in coastal northwest), lows near 5 C and highs near 12 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy with showers or periods of rain (likely to occur mainly during the early to mid morning), winds SW 40-60 mph then WNW 30-50 mph by afternoon, mild but turning a bit colder later, temperatures peaking near 11 C early and falling off gradually to 5-7 C.

OUTLOOK for CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY PERIOD ... Saturday (24th) likely to be a bright, breezy day with strong westerly winds in the north, less windy south and possibly foggy to start there, lows -2 to +3 C and highs near 9 C ... Christmas Day and St Stephen's Day look windy and mild again, with mainly dry conditions southeast to light rain or drizzle northwest. There could be dense fog in a few places overnight and in the mornings, and there will be outbreaks of moderate to heavy rain later on the 26th in advance of a windy but colder day on the 27th with squally showers developing (some wintry mix on higher ground in north). The current outlook beyond the 27th is for unsettled and at times windy weather with a cooling trend.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Mild and dry in the eastern U.S. with highs 12-15 C ... rain spreading north ahead of a snowstorm in the plains states, so rather mild as far west as about Chicago to St Louis to central Texas with showers and thunderstorms near that line, highs in the rain near 15 C ... snow and blowing snow, some accumulations of 30-50 cms in the plains states (blizzard conditions past 24h in parts of KS, e CO), temps falling to about -6 C in the snowstorm with strong NE winds ... mild and dry further north once clear of the storm as a chinook develops into the prairies and northern plains states ... cloudy with light rain on the west coast, snow line about 1,000 m in the western mountains. Highs 7-10 C on the coast. Warm and dry in parts of southern California.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a cloudy day with light rain at times, high about 8 C.

Thursday, 22 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, although bright or even hazy sunny intervals in parts of east and south, drizzle or light rain at times in north and west, and very mild, highs 11-13 C, winds SW 20-40 mph increasing to 35-55 mph by late afternoon. Heavy showers will develop in west by evening.

TONIGHT ... Squally showers, possible thunder, winds veering about midnight (west) to 0300h (east) to westerly 35-55 mph ... rainfalls generally 5-10 mms ... some hail or even sleet later in Connacht and west Ulster, as temperatures fall sharply across the north to 2-4 C ... lows further south about 4-6 C.

FRIDAY (23rd) ... Variable cloud with some sunny breaks developing, hail showers becoming more infrequent and confined to north, in blustery WNW winds of 25-40 mph, temperatures recovering slightly from morning lows and levelling off around 5-7 C ... frost developing by evening in eastern and central counties, but staying milder in west as winds back to southwest. Drizzle and light rain developing in a few places across northwest and north coasts overnight.

SATURDAY (24th) ... Mostly cloudy, slowly becoming milder, with winds settling into SSW at 25-45 mph ... some patchy light rain or drizzle mainly near west coast ... highs 8-11 C.

CHRISTMAS EVE will likely be quite mild and somewhat misty with steady southwest winds of 20-40 mph and temperatures steady 8-10 C.

CHRISTMAS DAY (25th) ... Very mild and mostly cloudy with patchy rain or drizzle mainly west and north, highs 11-13 C. Winds southwest 25-45 mph.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Monday 26th) ... Continuing very mild (perhaps even warm) with a few places seeing hazy sun at times, but mostly cloudy, winds WSW 30-50 mph, lows 8-10 C and highs 12-14 C.

OUTLOOK ... Following some showers and a weak front around the end of the day Monday, Tuesday 27th could be somewhat colder but partly cloudy to sunny with highs 6-9 C. High pressure will settle in for Wednesday 28th and Thursday 29th, with frosts returning, and also some central and inland northeast locations could stay rather cold in the daytime due to an inversion (3-6 C) although near coasts it may warm up to about 8-10 C ... another gusty frontal system is indicated for Friday 30th and the outlook into the New Years Eve and Day weekend at present calls for somewhat colder weather with showers in gusty west to northwest winds at times.

As mentioned yesterday, there are vague indications of a much colder turn within a few days of the new year, especially if conditions in the upper atmosphere change to the more favourable "stratospheric warming" (warm up there means colder down here, at least in certain patterns).

Quite a change in the weather from Christmas 2010 to Christmas 2011 !!

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... It's just after midnight in the big cities of the northeast U.S. but temperatures are near 16 C ... this is basically the warm air coming your way for Christmas, and the last stages of the warm sector of the former snowstorm in the plains states (now it is much weaker crossing Ontario and Quebec with just wet flurries in places) ... later today the sun should come out at times and keep temperatures steady around 10 C in the northeast states despite a weak cold front ... from there west, conditions just become slightly colder and never get much lower than about seasonal normal values of 5 C around Chicago to 15 C around Memphis, for example ... west of that, today will see the gradual development of a weak wintry mix system over regions that just had heavy snow, so the main feature there will be icing on roads with freezing drizzle or wet snow ... this system is also dropping several inches of snow in parts of the Rockies to about Wyoming ... mild and dry across most of western Canada which is more under the influence of low pressure moving across northern regions.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wednesday was a sunny day with some cloudy intervals, and near normal in temperature after a frosty start with black ice on side streets around the morning rush hour. Highs reached about 7 C and winds were light. There is about a normal amount of snow in nearby mountains despite the fact that we are currently sitting at 10% of normal monthly precip and 40% of the existing record low for December. Some rain is predicted for the Christmas holiday so that record may survive, but it could be close.

Saturday, 24 December, 2011
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Guidance has not changed much for the first 5-6 days of this forecast, so it follows on from the previous forecast. The Tuesday 27th (evening) Atlantic storm has now appeared on all models so I've dropped the comments on uncertain outcomes there. Some new comments on the longer range appear (for those who don't want to read the same forecast again) ... and in astronomy, today is the new moon at 1807 GMT. The Moon narrowly misses an eclipse by moving just north of the Sun, and factoring in the curved path of Sun and Moon in the sky, although invisible (and behind cloud anyway) the Moon would be located just to the right of the setting Sun around 4 p.m.

Happy Christmas to you and yours, I may post a forecast on Christmas morning, but if not, have a look on the 26th.

FORECASTS
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TODAY ... Variable cloud but overcast in north, outbreaks of rain may become heavy briefly in Donegal and nearby counties, 10-15 mms potential, but more like 2-5 mms further south, with either light rain or drizzle in a steady backing wind becoming SW 25-45 mph by afternoon (35-55 mph for a time around mid-day in Donegal) ... highs 9-11 C.

SATURDAY NIGHT (Christmas Eve) ... Mild and overcast with rain becoming light or drizzly, temperatures steady 8-10 C. Some fog over northern hills. Winds WSW 20-30 mph.

CHRISTMAS DAY (Sunday 25th) ... Cloudy with light rain or drizzle northern counties, perhaps brighter intervals south, mild and breezy (SW 25-35 mph although 35-50 mph in exposed northwest coastal locations). Highs 10-13 C.

ST STEPHEN's DAY (Monday 26th) ... Cloudy for most, some brighter intervals southeast, mild and breezy (SW 20-30 mph) ... lows near 8 C and highs 11-14 C. Rain intermittent at first becoming steady later, possibly heavy in Connacht. The evening will see lighter winds and a gradual shift southeast of a band of rain giving about 10-20 mms in some places.

TUESDAY (27th) ... Showers or periods of rain settling into south, possibly some clearing mid-day or afternoon in parts of north, a touch colder with lows 4-7 C and highs 8 to 10 C. Winds will likely increase sharply towards evening in the west (from a southerly direction) as an Atlantic low develops and tracks across Donegal towards Scotland during the late evening. Wind gusts to 55-60 mph may develop for a while, more like 30-45 mph away from the exposed northwest coasts.

WEDNESDAY (28th) ... Following early morning rain, a windy, showery day will follow with wind direction veering from SW to NW, generally 20-35 mph after some higher gusts early morning in the north mainly, and temperatures steady around 7-9 C but turning a bit colder by late in the day ... showers could become somewhat sleety if not mixed in Connacht and Ulster. Some fairly rapid improvement may occur in the south as the gradient slackens.

THURSDAY (29th) ... Sunny intervals, a cold or even frosty start for inland counties, lows -2 to +3 C, then pleasant although not as mild as previous days, highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... In general, a southerly flow of rather mild air with a slightly continental mixed origin will develop and fronts may now be delayed or pushed back to the northwest. The evolution past about Sat 31st is rather uncertain because of pending developments in the upper atmosphere; in theory what is most likely to happen is some rapid ridge-building and possibly a shift back to the west of some features followed by a gradual turn to a more northerly flow in early January. This could involve a longer buildup and some minor Atlantic fronts before a colder phase sets in.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... In general, a quiet winter pattern prevails almost everywhere. Rain is moving onto the west coast with moderate SW winds, but there is no major storm. It is mild and dry across the Canadian west in a westerly flow; highs range from 7 C on the coast and in the Alberta chinook zone, to zero C in the central prairies. Further south into the western U.S., cloudy for most, snow lingering south of Denver into parts of the western plains states. Light snow is developing along a weak warm front in the western Great Lakes region, and cloud spreads across most of the northeast U.S. from a stalled front, with rather cold air over Quebec, but highs for the large cities of the Atlantic seaboard are around 5-7 C. Light rain will develop tonight and into Christmas Day with wet snow over inland higher terrain. The southeast is relatively mild and dry. Snow is spreading through Newfoundland from the Atlantic provinces of eastern Canada, 5-15 cms is likely.This is from a northern branch of the system expected in Ireland on Tuesday, which is developing south of Newfoundland later today.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was cloudy and reasonably mild with light rain at times, highs near 8 C.

Tuesday, 27 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, could see a few sunny breaks in southeast, outbreaks of light rain mostly west and north, turning heavier by late afternoon, gradually increasing southerly winds 15-30 mph, highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... During the evening to about midnight, a strong and blustery cold front will sweep across the country. Squall-line potential with this, watch for updates and discussion, 5-15 mms rain on average ... winds generally will continue to increase across the west and north as they veer more to SW then W 30-50 mph ... much stronger winds could brush some portions of the northwest coast and will certainly be felt out to sea and in western Scotland by morning, but could avoid hitting most parts of Ireland unless the squall line itself brings its own locally severe gusts. Temperatures tonight steady around 5-8 C most of the night before falling off to 2-4 C around dawn.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and colder with mixed wintry showers over higher terrain, hail or rain showers lower down, but also some sunny intervals, in blustery WNW winds 30-50 mph. Highs 4-7 C.

THURSDAY ... Following a cold night with mixed wintry showers, the day will continue rather chilly but mild enough for most of the showers to return to rain, sleet on highest terrain, lows near 2 C and highs near 8 C. Breezy to windy, WNW 20-40 mph.

FRIDAY ... Breezy or windy, showers or periods of light rain, milder, winds westerly backing to SW 20-40 mph, lows near 5 C and highs near 10 C.

SATURDAY ... Windy and mild, showers or periods of rain, lows near 6 C and highs near 11 C. Winds SW 30-50 mph.

SUNDAY (New Years' Day) ... Windy and somewhat colder (WNW 25-45 mph) with mixed wintry showers over north, hail or rain showers further south, lows near 3 C and highs near 7 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Another surge of milder air could bring temperatures back up to near 10 C on Monday 2nd with more rapid variations to follow in a generally westerly flow that mixes some mild sectors with colder air originating near Greenland. Eventually this pattern may collapse and allow the jet to shift south, so longer-range forecasts are not that carved in stone at this point with the models subject to big changes.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Rain will rapidly spread northeast and the major cities of the east coast will get a soaking in mild southerly winds, highs near 15 C and 30-50 mms rain likely. This storm will be mild enough to allow rain as far inland as the lower Great Lakes but snow will mix in during the later stages as the system pulls northeast into New Brunswick for Wednesday. Further west, there is only a limited outbreak of cold air squeezing in between this system and a strong low heading east through the Canadian prairies. This will renew the chinook that will cut off for a time today and allow some snow and sub-freezing temperatures briefly across the eastern prairies.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Monday was a wet and breezy day with highs of about 8 C. The long dry spell seems to have finally been broken with more of a normal rain-forest sort of pattern back in place.

Thursday, 29 December, 2011
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TODAY ... Windy and feeling raw despite turning a bit milder with outbreaks of rain becoming heavy later today, 10-20 mms likely ... winds W 35-55 mph backing slightly to WSW, highs 9-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Further rain, strong westerly winds moderating later, lows around 5-8 C.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, showers or periods of rain developing, mild, winds SW 20-40 mph ... highs 9-12 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated showers, mild, breezy, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 or 12 C. Winds SW 20-40 mph.

NEW YEARS' EVE (Sat night) will become wet and progressively colder in strong westerly winds, lows near 3 C. Winds W 30-50 mph, higher gusts in west after midnight.

SUNDAY (1-1-2012) ... Windy and turning colder with squally showers that may become mixed over higher northern terrain, lows near 3 C and highs of about 6-8 C. Winds W 35-55 mph.

MONDAY ... Starting out quite chilly, turning milder, with periods of rain likely by evening as temperatures peak near 11-12 C possibly during the night.

OUTLOOK ... Models are struggling at the moment but I believe that the week will bring colder weather in stages, although there could be one brief mild sector around late Wednesday or early Thursday. Models will be more reliable when the stratospheric warming episode is confirmed, something that looks rather imminent now.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Much colder today in eastern New England and eastern Canada, but snow or sleet is moving into the lower Great Lakes ahead of milder air in the central plains states where highs could reach 15 C in places. The big cities of the northeast will feel just the outer fringes of the cold air mass and will tend to miss the snow as well although some light sleet or wet snow turning to drizzle could come and go by tonight.

Western Canada remains generally quite mild and the coast is seeing waves of moderate to heavy rain at times in a strong southwest flow. This moisture cuts off in Oregon and a warm, dry pattern remains in force over the southwest states.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Wed 28th was a very mild day here with a high of about 12 C between two batches of rain, the second of which is still going strong at this point. Tomorrow looks showery and mild again.

Saturday, 31 December, 2011
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Happy New Year -- all the best for 2012

ADVANCE ALERTS for developing wintry conditions especially in higher elevations (above 150m) later Sunday 1st into Monday 2nd ... and BE AWARE that very strong winds may develop late Monday night into Tuesday morning (3rd Jan).

FORECASTS ...

Today will be mostly cloudy and very mild, with some brighter intervals but also outbreaks of light rain or drizzle ... winds moderate SSW 20-35 mph and highs 11-14 C.

Tonight (perhaps the only night of the year that everyone wants to know the forecast) ... winds will be increasing and turning more southwesterly, and it will likely feel colder after midnight with more frequent showers and gusts to 45-50 mph ... temperatures will be slowly falling to about 7 C at midnight and 3-4 C by morning. Dress for very cold conditions if you plan to be out very late.

Sunday (New Years' Day) ... Windy and cold, especially afternoon and evening hours, with showers becoming mixed and wintry at times, and snow possibly accumulating by evening on hills in west and north. Winds WSW veering slowly to WNW 35-55 mph adding considerable chill to daytime highs in the 5-7 C range, but temperatures closer to 2 C by late afternoon.

Monday will be very cold and windy, with a rapid moderating trend late in the day. Mixed wintry showers with accumulations of 3-5 cms of snow on hills (snow line at times near 150m then rising) ... winds WSW 30-50 mph ... morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon readings near 4-6 C before rising towards midnight to about 10 C.

Tuesday at this early point in time looks windy and perhaps stormy, but the details have not really been clarified. One scenario calls for very strong winds across the south with only a slight temperature rise in the north, while a second scenario calls for the strongest winds to hit the northwest coast early morning with gales widespread elsewhere. There are also hints of a weaker outcome that would produce only moderate winds. At this early stage, then, will be saying "windy and briefly milder, showers or periods of rain, potential for a return to mixed wintry showers in parts of north, temperatures rising to 10-12 C early morning, falling off to 6-8 C later with peak winds around 0300-0600h possibly gusting to 70 mph."

Stay tuned for updates and consult the threads on snow and wind potential for various other opinions and non-stop updates.

Outlook beyond Tuesday ... moderate winds and a trend to somewhat milder weather late in the week, showery at times, situation volatile and subject to the possibility of a colder turn around 8-15 January, perhaps in a northerly type pattern at first. There remains some chance that mild zonal patterns will continue through that week as well.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The Tuesday storm for Ireland, however it actually plays out, is right now plodding east through Ohio bringing wet snow and freezing rain to parts of the Great Lakes region north of its track, and mild, showery conditions to the northeast U.S. to the south. Highs may reach 12-15 C in the warm sector of this so-far modest low of about 995 mbs. Further south the pattern is warm and dry for most across the Gulf coast and Texas. A strong high dropping southeast into the Great Basin (Utah-Nevada) will bring colder weather to the interior western states and across most of British Columbia the weather will be partly cloudy with mountain snow showers, and rather cold with highs near 5 C. Further east, the Canadian prairies are seeing strong northwest winds and a colder pattern developing in the wake of a low near western Lake Superior that is creating a snowstorm in central Canada.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Friday was a partly cloudy day with a brief blast of strong westerly winds, mountain showers turning to sleet and snow at higher elevations, but just a brief sprinkle of rain here at 4 p.m., trace amounts ... highs near 7 C ... clear intervals overnight, cold and then sunny intervals, chilly on Saturday. Our New Years Eve will feature frosty clear conditions with a rapid increase in cloud Sunday morning.

Because of the alerts, I will definitely continue the daily updates through the New Years Eve period, and I will even try to be quite sober when doing so, but maybe it would help if I wasn't.

Sunday, 1 January, 2012 :eek:
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ALERT for developing wintry conditions late afternoon and evening, lasting into Monday mid-day, for most regions but more pronounced in higher elevations of the west and north. ADVANCE ALERT for strong and possibly damaging winds late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

TODAY ... Windy and turning colder in stages, with scattered showers of rain and hail at first, some with thunder, then later, mixed wintry showers with snow becoming dominant above 200 metres in west and north this evening. Temperatures will remain steady 5-7 C (8-10 C south coast) then may fall several degrees to reach 2-4 C this evening, in strong SW winds veering slightly to WSW 35-55 mph at times, although 20-40 mph much of the day in the east and sheltered inland locations.

TONIGHT ... Windy and very cold with mixed wintry showers, snow line dropping closer to sea level at times, accumulations of 3-7 cms possible mainly on hills in Connacht and west Ulster, lows -2 to +2 C. Winds will remain strong, W 35-55 mph in more exposed locations, otherwise 20-40 mph.

MONDAY (2nd) ... Windy and cold to start the day with further mixed or wintry showers, winds backing from westerly to southerly and temperatures slowly rising, periods of sleet turning to rain by late afternoon and evening, potential for 10-20 mms rain, winds reaching SSW 40-60 mph before midnight and temperatures about 7-9 C by evening.

MONDAY NIGHT ... Stormy conditions likely with very strong SW winds veering rapidly to W'ly, peaking at 50-80 mph with the potential for some damaging gusts around 0300-0800h, temperatures peaking 10-12 C then falling back sharply to 4-6 C in west, squally showers with hail and thunder. There is now growing consensus on the potential for country-wide severe wind gusts which will vary more by exposure to the southwest to west than by region. This may include Dublin in some of the stronger winds, watch for updated forecasts and discussions on our threads, but would advise a good indicator might be wind speeds and damage in past similar storms (12-26-98 and 01-06-91 have been mentioned). There is still some chance that this event will remain marginal for wind damage but at the same time there is some potential for it to be a major event.

TUESDAY ... Stormy conditions abating to gales then moderate WNW winds late afternoon, temperatures steady 4-6 C, some mixed or wintry showers in higher terrain but rain or hail showers dominating lower down, although some long dry intervals in lee of hills. Ulster will remain in the strong or storm force winds longest, as well as north Leinster.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... This period is looking relatively mild in continuing strong westerly winds, and some intervals of rain more concentrated in the northwest at times, highs 9-12 C.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY OUTLOOK ... The European model is now picking up a signal we have been searching for, namely some rapid changes of the circulation to suppress the Atlantic storm track and create anticyclonic blocking ... this begins to show up in the period 6-8 January and details may not be all that accurate (while other models continue with zonal flow) but a plausible sequence might be a cold rain or sleet event dropping south followed by colder north to northeast winds. This is speculative and subject to change. Temperatures could fall in stages but may eventually become significantly colder than normal.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The Monday night (Tuesday morning) storm for Ireland is rapidly intensifying off the Nova Scotia coast overnight and will bring northeast gales and rain to much of eastern Canada, with snow or sleet further north into Labrador and eastern Quebec. A second storm is also developing over the western Great Lakes. Regions between the lows will have a mild New Years Day with some sunshine and highs 10-15 C, and this will include all the larger cities of the northeast U.S. as well as Toronto and Montreal. But somewhat further west, rain will develop and quickly turn to snow, then blowing snow in strong northwest winds over Lakes Michigan and Superior by afternoon. This lake effect snow will spread further east tonight and Monday.

Across western Canada, it's a colder but mainly dry pattern with a few flurries and temperatures close to normal values, -7 to -10 C, in strong NW winds, trending to calm and partly cloudy over the Rockies and overcast with light rain on the west coast. A strong high is swelling up over Utah and Colorado bringing clear, cold weather to the Great Basin (highs -4 to -10 C) but promoting a mild southeast flow into Arizona and California. Strong northerly winds will develop across most of the plains states and barrel south through Oklahoma and later Texas to drop temperatures there from 10-15 C or higher, to sub-freezing by tonight, but the front is largely dry.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Saturday was a cloudy day and cool with a high near 5 C, but you could see the sun's position behind the overcast except when a few sleety sea-effect showers rolled in about 3 p.m. for a few minutes, dropping a mini-blizzard of sleet that vanished almost as soon as it appeared. Currently overcast with calm winds and about 2 C. It is still 2011 as I write this, and will be until 0800 GMT. Happy new year and thanks for the greeting card (previous post if you missed it).

Check the discussions of snow and strong winds although I would also say check the reliability of said utterances given the date on the calendar and the likely shock value of seeing the ECM while returning to sobriety. (perhaps it will also, perhaps not...)

Monday, 2 January, 2012
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ALERT upgraded for strong and potentially damaging winds tonight, arriving around or shortly after midnight and lasting several hours in most regions, possibly most of the day in Ulster. Forecasts will provide more details, but be aware that southwest gale to storm force winds appear very likely now and could increase to 65 mph sustained with gusts to 100 mph (this equates to 110 km/hr gusting as high as 160 km/hr, or 55-60 knots gusting to 85-90 knots). These speeds will be most likely in exposed coastal and upland locations in the west, south and later on north coasts as well as scattered higher terrain. For the Dublin region, there is a risk of winds of about 55 mph gusting to 85 mph (about 90 km/hr gusting to 135 kn/hr) late tonight. Most of the west coast, especially but not limited to Galway Bay region including parts of north Clare may be at risk of damaging gusts to near 150 km/hr and this would be strong enough to blow down large trees and do moderate structural damage, as well as moving any kind of poorly secured objects ... construction sites in all regions should be secured well in advance. Hurricane force winds are likely in most marine areas to force 12 and we strongly advise against road travel overnight.

FORECASTS --
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Today will remain cold and windy to mid-afternoon before a rapid moderation begins. There will be further mixed wintry showers (some with hail and thunder) and snow accumulations on northern and western hills above 150m, but the snow line should rise steadily by afternoon. Temperatures will be 4-7 C by afternoon and 8-11 C by midnight. Winds will stay quite blustery all day from the west backing to southwest at 35-55 mph but will increase to 55-80 mph by evening with severe gusts by midnight in the southwest coastal regions spreading rapidly around all coasts. Heavy rain will accompany the strong winds at first, with 10-20 mms likely, and some thunder possible. Marine zones west and later south of Ireland will begin to experience storm force and then hurricane force winds at times by late afternoon and evening.

Tonight will become stormy and there may be damaging winds from a south to southwest direction veering rapidly to westerly, reaching speeds of at least 50 mph gusting to 80 mph, and possibly 65 mph gusting to 100 mph in more exposed locations. See ALERT for further details. These winds will be capable of bringing down trees and inflicting structural damage even involving roof removal but certainly more minor damage would be widespread. Road travel may become very dangerous and we advise against it except in sheltered short-distance trips. The very strong winds will tend to peak around 0300h west and 0500h east but may continue several hours in the south and much of the day in the north. Squally showers will continue, temperatures will peak briefly around 10-12 C before falling back rapidly towards dawn, as winds veer to a W then NW direction.

Fortunately, we are between new and full moons and storm surge potential is reduced somewhat by the lower stage of astronomical tides, but a minor storm surge could develop in some west-facing bays and harbours. Battering waves are likely, but the extremely rapid forward speed of the storm will likely mean that very large swells and waves may arrive after the strongest winds have come and gone. Exercise extreme caution if viewing these coastal battering waves later Tuesday, some may be 15-25 metres high.

Tuesday following the worst of the windstorm, it will remain quite windy (WNW 40-60 mph) most of the day, but parts of Ulster will remain in much stronger storm force winds of 55-90 mph. Temperatures will become steady in the 3-6 C range (milder south and east coasts) with mixed wintry showers returning to higher parts of the north, although hail and rain dominant at lower elevations elsewhere. Near blizzard conditions may develop in higher passes of Ulster.

Wednesday will continue rather windy and raw with strong west to northwest winds, sleety showers or periods of rain mixing with wet snow over some higher terrain in north, lows near 1-3 C and highs 5-8 C. Winds W-NW 30-50 mph with some higher gusts in Connacht and west Ulster.

Thursday will probably turn a bit milder again with westerly winds 20-40 mph, periods of rain heavier in the north, and lows 3-5 C, highs 8-11 C.

Friday to Sunday is considered uncertain with model guidance tending to diverge into two camps, one being a mild, unsettled westerly pattern, but another hinting at rapid frontal passages followed by strong northerly outbreaks. While deep cold or snow seem unlikely in Ireland, they could begin to develop in eastern parts of the U.K. as the Atlantic high could shift back to the west setting up a sharp thermal gradient near Ireland.

Further outlook -- Many signs of a much colder period to follow, but details hard to assess given the wide range of model guidance. My research theory would suggest strong northwest winds and mixed wintry showers as a big part of the picture, but there appears to be some chance of a blocking high ridge trying to push in from the northeast. That could lead to highly volatile polar low type circulations developing in about ten days or so.

North American forecasts -- Briefly due to the storm forecast, most of the northeast U.S. will remain mild to late afternoon then see rain turning to snow, after highs near 10 C. Great Lakes and upper Midwest cold and windy, snow squalls in west to northwest gale force winds, temperatures below -3 C in most areas. Further west, cold and dry with northerly winds, highs -3 to 0 C trending to 10-13 C Gulf coast. West coast turning milder in cloudy, drizzly southerly flow.

MTC's Local Weather ... Mostly cloudy, glimpses of sun, spits of rain but nothing measurable, milder than past few days by afternoon, 8 C.

Updates may follow on the storm potential, and there is an active discussion thread on the forum for this developing potentially major windstorm.

Take this seriously, the forward speed and rapid pressure drop mark this as a potentially dangerous windstorm.



:eek:

UPDATE _ Monday, 2 January, 2012 _ 11:45 pm
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ALERT is maintained and some of the higher wind speed advisories may verify as the centre is currently rapidly deepening around 54N 14W (est 970 mbs). Coastal and exposed locations in west, south but especially Galway Bay, Mayo and Donegal, could soon experience much stronger winds veering to SW and W and gusting to 140 km/hr (about 90 mph) or thereabouts. I am estimating that the strongest winds will hit around 0200-0300h. For Dublin and most of Leinster, the increase will be more gradual and may not peak until sunrise or later. All parts of Ulster can expect very strong winds at some point overnight lasting 6-12 hours when they arrive.

Continuing to stress the potential for wind damage to trees, facilities and some structures in exposed locations. Road travel in west and north strongly discouraged (after 0100h).

Consult earlier forecast and alerts for more details.

Wednesday, 4 January, 2012
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TODAY ... While not exactly stormy, blustery winds will redevelop during the day and exposed northern regions could see winds of 45-70 mph by afternoon from the WNW, accompanied by frequent showers or periods of rain, with some thunder possible, turning more to sleet on higher ground, as highs in the north will be held down to about 5-8 C. Central and southern districts won't be as windy, but will see passing rain or hail showers with some thunder, and winds of 35-55 mph from the west, with highs 8-11 C. Sunshine will be limited except in some parts of the southeast. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms will be fairly widespread.

TONIGHT ... The blustery winds in the north will veer slightly to NW 40-60 mph and allow slightly colder air to filter in, but a front will become stationary from about Westport to Dublin, and south of this, temperatures won't drop much until later in the night, with winds W 20-40 mph. Lows of 2-5 C in the north, temperatures steady 8-10 C in the south until falling late to about 5 C. Some sleet or snow could develop towards morning in higher parts of Ulster. Some thunder could develop near the front, stay tuned for updates.

THURSDAY ... Generally windy and colder with mixed wintry showers in places, cold rain or hail showers for most, winds NW 35-55 mph but easing in the south by afternoon, highs 4-7 C north, 7-10 C south. Generally about 3-5 mms rain although possibly heavier in Ulster.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY ... At this point, these days are shown as mild and cloudy with limited rainfall and highs 7-9 C, possible light frosts in some places, but I suspect the models may suddenly change in a day or two and provide a much more active pattern. So don't be surprised if this rather benign forecast changes to something more unsettled if not stormy.

OUTLOOK ... Here again, the European model has now returned to a colder look with the persistent high (if it even survives the weekend) starting to break up and allow a colder north to northwest flow next week. Given what I've said above, it would not surprise me if this turns into a very unsettled and at times stormy period with wintry precipitation beginning to mix in more, as temperatures generally start to edge down into the lower single digits in northerly winds. All we really need at this point is a slight shift in upper features that could be in response to upper-level warming, especially any kind of stalled Baltic low, and the GFS theme of continuous mild zonal flow could be blown away within 48 hours. Of course, my bias is showing here because this is what my research-driven forecast has been showing for the period 8-15 Jan followed by the heart of a colder regime late January. If it is going to become severe this winter in Ireland, I believe it will come around the 20th to 25th of January.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The dominant theme is very mild again, as colder air masses now over the Great Lakes and northeast are eroded slowly by frontal waves ahead of a massive push of very mild Pacific air downsloping across the Rockies in a major chinook pattern today, bringing highs of about 12-15 C to parts of the snow-free southern prairies. A previous weaker low is now collapsing into a warm frontal wave near Lake Michigan and this will bring a slight wet snowfall in its path but will cut off the previous heavy lake effect snows. The large cities of the northeast U.S. never got totally into the arctic blast further north, but are just below freezing and will recover to 5-8 C today and tomorrow, before hitting 10-15 C later in the week, a reading that will be widespread in the central plains states today, trending up to 20-25 C in Oklahoma and Texas, in a dry southwest flow. Meanwhile it is very warm and dry in the southwest states, but cloudy and raining further north with near normal highs of 7-9 C. Heavy snows are falling in some higher parts of the inland northwest states and B.C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Tuesday was one of those typical blah days on the west coast in January, overcast, light to moderate rain, southerly winds of 30 mph and highs near 7 C. No sign of snow around here (just higher up).

Friday, 6 January, 2012
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Finally, a break in the strong winds that many have been complaining about as too persistent ... and with this break, some dry weather with only limited drizzly rain in a few places. Models are suggesting this will hold as long as the atmosphere doesn't suddenly reset due to upper-level warming. That is making me less than confident about this spell lasting for a week, but it could.

TODAY ... Milder with some hazy sunshine as well as patchy low cloud and drizzle. Only light to moderate southwest breezes becoming a bit stronger by evening in the north. Highs 8-11 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, partly cloudy otherwise, some light rain may spread across parts of west and north later, lows 3-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Somewhat cooler in the north as winds veer to WNW 20-40 mph, scattered showers, but the hazy, partly cloudy conditions may hold across parts of the south with milder highs of 8-12 C.

SUNDAY ... A milder trend again in the north, staying rather mild in the south, mostly hazy and partly cloudy skies, slight chance of drizzle ... lows of about 3-5 C and highs 9-12 C.

OUTLOOK ... This sort of pattern will continue with slight variations all week, unless the steering currents begin to change rapidly, which is widely expected to happen around the end of the week or into the mid-month period. When that happens, it may become much more unsettled and cold air will be looking for ways to come south. Right now, the models seem to be indicating that Ireland and vicinity could try to hold on to mild conditions despite a lot of colder air rushing south in other regions. However, this has to be taken as a very uncertain outcome.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Record mild temperatures will continue in parts of the northern and central plains states, spreading into the western Great Lakes and Ohio valley (it was 16 C in Minot, ND on Thursday). Although it may take most of the day, the large cities of the northeast will get to around 12-15 C as well. It's very warm across all of the southern half of the U.S.A. with highs up to 20-25 C in many parts. Western Canada is seeing a slight cooling trend today but still well above normal, 2-4 C instead of 10-15. And the west coast remains partly to mostly cloudy with some showers.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Thursday was a mostly cloudy day but with some sunny breaks, and highs near 10 C. The wind felt cold despite that.

Sunday, 8 January, 2012
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No major changes in the models, mild air likely to persist to about Friday, then a gradual colder trend as high pressure links to a much colder source region in Scandinavia. Details remain uncertain, but a colder trend seems likely for several weeks beyond Friday.

TODAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, some light rain or drizzle in parts of west and north, better chance of hazy sunshine southeast ... mild, highs 9-12 C.

TONIGHT ... Fog or mist patches, some drizzle west and north, light winds, lows 3-6 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY ... Little change each day, some hazy sunshine possible in south and east, more cloud likely in north and west, scattered outbreaks of light rain but generally dry, little accumulation ... highs each day around 8-11 C on average, but could reach 12-13 C in some places ... lows each morning about 4-6 C on average.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... Some sunny intervals, light winds, but perhaps with a slight northeast to east component, colder especially at night, frosts may develop. Lows 0-3 C and highs 6-9 C.

OUTLOOK ... Colder air will be lurking either just north to east, or even across parts of Ulster, and there will be some risk of sleet or snow with this, although there remains some chance of a dry cold interval. Once in place, the cold air may become a "player" for some time, perhaps the rest of the month into early February. Not sure yet if the cold will become severe (highs that do not reach freezing and lows below -6 C), much depends on whether snow cover is established or not.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... After a very warm day that saw highs of 20 C in Washington DC and 17 C in NYC, today will be more seasonable although still milder than average, with highs of 5-8 C in the northeast states. It remains very warm across the southern states with a few outbreaks of light rain but nothing very heavy. Also, very mild across the southern prairies and northern - central plains (for two more days before a big change to very cold). Highs today will be 7-12 C in these regions where -20 to -10 C is about normal. But it could be -30 C by Wednesday.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Cloudy, a rather cold wind and light rain at times, highs about 5 C.

Tuesday, 10 January, 2012
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TODAY ... Cloudy and mild, with some brighter intervals or hazy sunshine developing in parts of the central to southeast inland regions, drizzle or fog near some coasts ... highs 11-13 C.

TONIGHT ... Mostly cloudy, misty, rather mild with lows 6-8 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Continuing partly cloudy and mild with scattered light drizzle and fog or mist patches, light winds ... highs 10-12 C.

THURSDAY ... Little change at first, lows near 5 C and highs near 11 C, but clearing skies later, turning colder soon after sunset.

FRIDAY ... Clear skies and much colder for most especially inland, morning frost, lows -2 to +2 C ... hazy sunshine with some low cloud patches, cold during the day, highs 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, drizzle turning to light rain later, lows 0-3 C and highs 7-10 C.

OUTLOOK ... The models have continued to struggle with the outcome, several runs earlier showed severe cold and easterly winds developing, but the most recent guidance backs away from this and has some indications more of a windstorm developing instead. I would just say all options are on the table, from mild to very cold and various shades of unsettled conditions in between. We're in one of those situations where patience is needed because if the computer models are this unsteady, we're simply guessing as to the outcome. I do think that the colder scenarios are plausible given the changes underway at upper levels.

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... Parts of western Canada will turn much colder in northerly winds, with temperatures falling steadily to -15 C during the day then -30 C overnight. Closer to the west coast, this trend will be much less spectacular, more like 5 C by day and -2 C overnight. The eastern prairies and most of the northern plains states will stay mild until late afternoon, getting into a period of sleet and 2-5 cms of snow before the cold air digs in this evening. Before that, highs could reach 5-10 C. Further south, mostly dry and mild, except in parts of central Texas where a weak upper level storm will bring rain and some thunderstorms. Towards the Great Lakes and east coast, near normal temperatures and cloudy skies in a moderate southwest flow, highs 4-7 C.

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Mostly cloudy, but dry, and around 8 to 10 C ... getting rather windy overnight with colder air just to our north now.

Thursday, 12 January, 2012
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TODAY ... The mild, cloudy spell is about to end but will hang on in most places until afternoon ... winds will be moderate westerly to north-westerly until mid-afternoon, then may fall off to light ... fog and drizzle will persist but watch for some clearing across Ulster and Leinster before sunset ... highs will be 9-11 C but temperatures will fall rather sharply towards sunset.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals at first, low cloud or fog forming in many areas, colder, lows -2 to +3 C for most, could stay milder near west coast.

FRIDAY ... Sunny intervals for most, low cloud more likely near south and west coasts, winds rather light but with a slight easterly component, highs around 4-7 C.

SATURDAY ... East and north will remain clear to partly cloudy, cold, lows near -4 C and highs near +4 C ... south and west could have more cloud, even some drizzle or sleet at higher elevations, lows near -1 C and highs near 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Low cloud and drizzle or light rain (sleet possibly) will become more widespread gradually although east and north may remain largely dry, lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

MONDAY ... Staying rather cold and cloudy with light rain or drizzle in places, foggy by evening, lows near -1 C and highs near 6 C.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ... This period may turn milder again, although this is not 100% certain as large-scale changes are now underway, this rather weak blocking high for the weekend could decide to hang on longer. If it does turn milder, it's likely to be back up to about 10-12 C for a day or two.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The models are very undecided but the most reliable ECM seems to favour a return to cold and then windy conditions with possible snow or sleet by the following weekend (21-22 Jan). However, a continued mild theme could win out (considered less likely).

NORTH AMERICAN FORECASTS ... The east remains mild as very cold air creeps slowly east across the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. From about Michigan to Kentucky east, it will stay mild and wet with highs 7-12 C, winds turning to southeast. Some snow will develop on the west and northeast edges of this storm, with 5-10 cms for some parts of Wisconsin, Illinois and also northern New England. Freezing drizzle is possible with that.

Further west, it is very cold through the central states and most of west-central Canada although turning a bit milder today in Montana and Alberta in a weak chinook. Temperatures in the heart of the cold air are running near freezing in the south and -20 C in Canada. The weak chinook is just bringing temperatures back up to about -2 C, and an even colder air mass is now developing over Alaska with a Siberian origin. This one will sag southeast this weekend and set up a cold wave pattern for western Canada, so that we may finally see some snow here on the west coast (for now, it's clear and moderately cold).

MTC's LOCAL WEATHER ... Sunny and cold on Wednesday, highs near 4 C. Tonight it will fall to about -5 C under clear skies.