Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

My outlook is for widespread heavy showers, not continuous rain except perhaps in Ulster. I will update at the usual time (0600-0630).

fishmahboi

Your outlook looks partially true.

I just checked on met eireann and it looks like most of the heavier showers will be in munster where they are likely to be prolonged and thundery

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 7 September, 2010
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Yesterday was extremely wet and gave an average of about 40 mms of rain to the entire country, with as much as 120 mms reported by one of our Boards observers, in Laois. Official reports were as high as 85 mms at Knock with several other stations close behind. This rain has not stopped falling, but early this morning is generally confined to Connacht and west Ulster, with a hefty batch of new showers moving into Clare, Kerry and Limerick. Those will move steadily east this morning and could renew the heavy rains in central and southeast Ireland by mid-day. See the forecast below for details.

TODAY ... periods of rain, heavy at times, for Connacht, with amounts generally 20-40 mms additional. Highs 14-16 C, extensive hill fog, and watch for mudslides and areas of road flooding especially where terrain is flat and poorly drained. ... for Munster, watch for heavy local showers although the sun may break through briefly here and there, with potential for 20-30 mms of rain locally (some places much less than this) with highs 15-18 C. Watch for flooding, mudslide or rockslide problems in higher sections of roads near mountains, and some flooding in lower lying areas.

For Leinster, some morning sunshine and patchy low cloud, drizzle and fog more towards Dublin and Meath, but all of this changing rapidly to scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms with potential for 20-30 mms of rain, highs about 17 C. Flooding may be a problem wherever the combined rainfalls of yesterday and today prove too much for local drainage, so there may already be some flooding and more may develop; consider the rainfall that may have fallen upstream if you have rivers nearby rising in distant locations ... For Ulster, morning low cloud, fog, drizzle or light rain, few if any breaks before heavier rain sets in mid-day and afternoon, 15-25 mms of rain generally, highs near 15 C. Some flooding is possible especially in southeast Ulster (both sides of border).

Strong winds will not be an issue today, the circulation will be generally about 10-20 mph and will range from westerly winds in the south to east winds in Ulster and north winds in Donegal, west Mayo and later into west Galway.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with further showers, some heavy at times, but as this activity slowly fades out, more rain will develop and move into the west later on, lows 8-11 C, widespread dense fog, dangerous road conditions due to standing water and overtopping that you may not be able to see in the mist and fog.

WEDNESDAY ... further showers and heavier periods of rain, probably an average of about 10-15 mms of rain, highs about 16 C. The sun could be out briefly in the south and east mostly.

THURSDAY ... a brief respite from all this rain and some welcome sunshine at times, just a few isolated brief showers, highs near 18 C.

FRIDAY ... another soaker is on the way, unless things change, and this could represent another 20-30 mms of rain, with highs near 18 C and brisk southerly winds, hill fog (we've been there before, right?)

SATURDAY ... partly cloudy with showers, winds veering to westerly, highs near 16 C.

OUTLOOK ... the weather models say next week could be a lot better with settled weather, warm temperatures and some sunshine each day, the greatest risk of any cloud and rain in the far north ... potentially highs could be in the 20-23 C range. That should help to dry things out if true.

Meanwhile, we've had rain, drizzle and fog all day here too, and 25-30 mms locally, and it was chilly with that, 13 C mid-afternoon. What's left of Earl is now up near the Labrador Sea and you can actually see it here (this image will update so if you're reading this much after mid-day today it will show something different) ...

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_sigwx_1070_100.jpg

looking further east you can see the cloud masses left behind by Danielle on her way into the Greenland region, and the complex low pressure west of Ireland bringing you all that rain.

fishmahboi

Man this must be heaven for crazy people that love thunderstorms :pac:

M.T. Cranium

I think that would be Kansas in May.

The activity on radar around Shannon and Limerick is quite heavy and I am very concerned about the eventual total rainfalls over counties like Tipps and Laois which were hit hardest yesterday. Flooding could become severe if these showers stay this heavy later this morning.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think that would be Kansas in May.

The activity on radar around Shannon and Limerick is quite heavy and I am very concerned about the eventual total rainfalls over counties like Tipps and Laois which were hit hardest yesterday. Flooding could become severe if these showers stay this heavy later this morning.

Eh it will probably clear since from what I can see on the radar the rain is getting pushed west and then comes some showers to ruin the nice dry start :pac:
Odd it looks like most areas may even avoid most of the showers (taken from bbc weather uk)

M.T. Cranium

I'm estimating from radar and reports at Shannon that some places around Killarney may have seen 25-40 mms of rain already this morning and so there could be some flooding in that lovely part of the world. Meanwhile the activity around Limerick is moving slowly east, could take much of the morning to get as far east as Laois south to Waterford and then yes, it wouldn't surprise me either if some parts of the southeast could stay dry quite a while longer due to the rainshadow effect from west winds, however the overall look of the radar suggests to me that there is eastward drift likely in the heavy showers so enjoy whatever part of the morning stays dry, that's what I would say now before retiring ... I hope one or two of the forecast savvy people from the other threads will pop in, but anyone looking for updates now might do well to check the heavy rainfall thread for the next several hours and see what they're saying over there. The bottom line is this, what goes up in the evaporation cycle this morning has got to come down somewhere, let's hope it's where nobody lives and no rivers rise (that rules out just about everywhere though).

I shall stumble back in here at some unknown time to see what's happening and take care if you're driving today, there are bound to be some flooded sections of roadway in many parts of the country.

fishmahboi

http://www.weather-forecast.com/locations/Arklow/forecasts/latest

weisses

Was BBQ weather yesterday

Sun out again this morning

Must be a different world I'm living in

naughto

when will the dark purple blob hit thats out to the west ??

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 2:30 p.m.
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I just checked on that area of heavy rain off the Mayo coast and it seems to be moving very slowly so it could lose intensity before some remnants of it move ashore, but then that whole area is subject to continuing heavy rain inland so it may develop further when it moves inland by this evening.

Otherwise, the general picture is one of scattered thundery outbreaks of rain that are mainly confined to two lines that people have been discussing on the thunderstorm thread, one along the east coast mainly north of Dublin and the other that now looks to be developing gradually to severe levels, from Limerick south to Cork. That line will probably continue to drift east at about 20 mph and reach Tipps, Laois, Waterford, Kilkenny and Carlow, all counties that probably don't need a lot more rain but could now see another 15-30 mms from these thundery showers. Not sure if they would get much further east than that before sunset and a gradual weakening trend but will update around 5 p.m. or sooner if conditions warrant.

Dingle (as per Weisses above) seems to be the most favoured location past two days, I noticed that some other coastal spots like Valentia and Sherkin Island had very little rain compared to most places even a few miles away. Part of that is due to the convection firing up some distance inland when the moist unstable air mass moves in, you can see on the satellite how there is a lot more activity over land than over the surrounding ocean at least in the southern half of the country. Also some parts of the southeast coast have seen less rain than most.

fishmahboi

Anybody know whats going on tonight and tomarrow?

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 6:30 p.m.
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Over most of Ireland this evening, showers are gradually decaying (losing energy) and while there could still be the odd brief downpour, many places will now remain dry or just see some light rain at times.

The one exception to that would be Galway where heavy thundery showers appear likely, the radar already shows some near Clifden moving slowly east through parts of Connemara and I would expect Galway city would be seeing these before 8 p.m., and they could last several hours due to the slow rate of movement east. Expect 10-20 mms of rain in that region including parts of north Clare.

Otherwise many of you will only see traces of rain to 2-3 mms more before morning, then Wednesday should be generally less unsettled than today was, but still with about a 30% coverage of showers at any given time, in mostly the same general areas of central and northern counties. The process is similar but the system is slowly losing its feed of moisture from the subtropics and so it is just recycling through daily evaporation and shower development. Eventually by Thursday a ridge will develop and some "negative vorticity" meaning basically subsiding air will finally replace all of this troughy instability with some (gasp) sunshine. That will all last the better part of a day before another wet, windy frontal system arrives. That one is not playing around with the never-ending whirl of moisture, it is just coming through dropping its load and moving on, with a few showers in its wake. Next week still looks a whole lot nicer than this week has been with higher pressure building into the south. Apparently it's the return of the college students that is mainly to be credited for this development. :cool: Perhaps they should be made to study non-stop if this is the case.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 6:30 p.m.
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Over most of Ireland this evening, showers are gradually decaying (losing energy) and while there could still be the odd brief downpour, many places will now remain dry or just see some light rain at times.

The one exception to that would be Galway where heavy thundery showers appear likely, the radar already shows some near Clifden moving slowly east through parts of Connemara and I would expect Galway city would be seeing these before 8 p.m., and they could last several hours due to the slow rate of movement east. Expect 10-20 mms of rain in that region including parts of north Clare.

Otherwise many of you will only see traces of rain to 2-3 mms more before morning, then Wednesday should be generally less unsettled than today was, but still with about a 30% coverage of showers at any given time, in mostly the same general areas of central and northern counties. The process is similar but the system is slowly losing its feed of moisture from the subtropics and so it is just recycling through daily evaporation and shower development. Eventually by Thursday a ridge will develop and some "negative vorticity" meaning basically subsiding air will finally replace all of this troughy instability with some (gasp) sunshine. That will all last the better part of a day before another wet, windy frontal system arrives. That one is not playing around with the never-ending whirl of moisture, it is just coming through dropping its load and moving on, with a few showers in its wake. Next week still looks a whole lot nicer than this week has been with higher pressure building into the south. Apparently it's the return of the college students that is mainly to be credited for this development. :cool: Perhaps they should be made to study non-stop if this is the case.

Hmm met eireanns national forecast pretty much states the heavy thundery showers continuing with western areas at risk especially during the early night. This forecast sounds far fetched but im not 100% sure

M.T. Cranium

In general, please stop copying forecasts for comment purposes, as it uses up bandwidth unnecessarily. I may have to close the thread to comments and just take private messages for input. Some of these comments also seem contradictory, as in your forecast different then examples of similarity?

Anyway, not meaning to be rude, but I just would prefer to make forecasts, get input, and make more forecasts, not try to be an on call private consultant for any one individual, that usually requires a payment arrangement. Thanks, MTC (violators may be placed on ignore).

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

In general, please stop copying forecasts for comment purposes, as it uses up bandwidth unnecessarily. I may have to close the thread to comments and just take private messages for input. Some of these comments also seem contradictory, as in your forecast different then examples of similarity?

Anyway, not meaning to be rude, but I just would prefer to make forecasts, get input, and make more forecasts, not try to be an on call private consultant for any one individual, that usually requires a payment arrangement. Thanks, MTC (violators may be placed on ignore).

Oh ok sorry about that

M.T. Cranium

I don't mind so much when it's somebody asking about a big event or something a lot of people are likely to do, like that hill climb or the meteor shower ... no harm in asking anyway, but the block copying of forecasts just disrupts the thread, people are going to stop coming because they won't be able to find the forecasts for all the chit-chat. These forecasts are read by many more people than just the ones who leave a calling card (the thanks or a post) and I have to keep in mind that 90% of them want nothing more than the basic information usually for the same day or next day, it's only a few who really care what's going to happen in three days or next week. And we're here partly for the convenience, it's not all about competing with other forecasts, because many days, they are all about the same -- this is just a very convenient place for some boards members to find the forecast then clear off and do what they had planned. Like building an ark. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 8 September, 2010
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New moon occurs today at 1130h summer time. The Moon is also at its perigee (closest approach to the earth) as of 05h today. Tidal ranges today will be a bit higher than usual but as there's little wind blowing, no really high water levels. Inland is of course a different story.

TODAY ... heavy and at times thundery rain for parts of Connacht and Clare especially near Galway this morning, 10-20 mms more accumulating ... a few isolated heavy showers elsewhere, including Wexford this morning, but some sunny intervals developing across the south and east ... followed by outbreaks of heavy showers (watch for updates and discussions in the threads) ... highs near 17 C.

TONIGHT ... less rain and more clear skies than recent nights, extensive fog developing, lows 7-10 C.

THURSDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, just a few isolated brief showers in Connacht again mostly, and rather warm with highs 17-19 C.

FRIDAY ... rain, heavy at times, from early morning spreading quickly across the country, hill fog, strong southerly winds 25-40 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. About 25 mms of rain on average.

SATURDAY ... some rain continuing in southeast but otherwise partly cloudy, showery, winds SW to W 20-30 mph, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

SUNDAY ... variable cloud, showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 16 C.

MONDAY to THURSDAY of next week are looking more settled especially across the south, with high pressure close at hand. Further north there may be more cloud and occasional drizzle but not much rain is indicated even there in a moderate westerly flow. Highs may reach 19-22 C in the south and about 17-19 C north. Nights will be cooler generally than this past week and well inland could be near frosty with dense fog patches forming. The models are suggesting this settled spell will break down eventually into a cooler northerly (sometimes this solution never materializes at that range, we shall see).

Here (in Vancouver, Canada) it was a pleasant day with gradual clearing but some towering cumulus around, no rain, and a high of about 18 C on Tuesday (7th). Further east it was quite warm to hot in the eastern states again today, 34 C at Washington DC. Tropical storm Hermine formed a couple of days ago and moved inland into Texas bringing heavy rain and 60 mph wind gusts to some places around San Antonio and Corpus Christi.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 10:00h
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Just adding the detail that conditions appear favourable for development of a few thunderstorms in eastern and central counties by mid-day and early afternoon, would suggest a watch for these in counties in this general area: Monaghan, Longford, Louth, Offaly, Westmeath, inland Meath, inland Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Tipps, Kilkenny, inland Waterford, Carlow, inland Wexford, Wicklow probably from hills west. That might not be the whole area to be affected and chances within that area are probably about one in five for any given location. This would extend into Armagh and Down also. You can find reasoning for this over in the t'storm thread where Su Campu has posted the current Estofex analysis which looks reasonable to me. There is enough sunshine getting through broken cloud to heat the ground, plenty of moisture to evaporate, and the air mass is unstable with a trough feature across that area, plus from my own research we have the added geomagnetic energy peak of the new moon, so all things considered, today is prime for local thunderstorms. These may not drop tons of rain but could be locally intense and give some hail and frequent lightning in one or two spots. As I may not be awake to see this, I'll ask the regulars to keep an eye on it but you might want to check the thunderstorm thread for more timely observations on this subject later on. It would probably peak around 2-3 p.m. and could last well into the late afternoon. Cells will tend to drift east-northeast at 20-30 mph once formed. I should emphasize, not everyone will see these, some places might have a nice dry mid-day and afternoon period with the sun getting through at times.

dacogawa

Congratulations on your 100th page of forcasts M.T. & here's to 100 more, it is very much appreciated by all of us (hope this didn't use up to much bandwith )

Su Campu

UPDATE - Wednesday 1:00PM


Things are working out just as MT said above. This morning's heavy showers, that were confined to west of the shannon, are now starting to make some progress eastwards, with one particularly heavy shower crossing southern Limerick at the moment, which could produce lightning at any minute. At the same time convection has gotten going in Leinster, with some spotty returns now showing up on radar. These should intensify in the next couple of hours and move eastwards, bringing short sharp downpours to some places, especially Laois, Carlow, Kildare and Dublin.

Joe Public

Low bandwidth plea - please leave out Lucan from the showers as I'm going to play golf.

Su Campu

UPDATE - 16:00

There are now some very thundery showers, with frequent lightning, moving eastwards in a line from Cork City, through Waterford, to north of Wexford town, and another thundery cell moving northeastwards through north Kildare and southeastern Meath. There are some very heavy rainfall rates associated with these cells, and some flash flooding is possible. There have already been reports of flood disruption to the southeast of Dublin City earlier.

fishmahboi

Is the rain on Thursdaynight - Friday meant to be heavier than the one on Monday?

M.T. Cranium

Thanks to SC for updates ... looks like a few more hours of this scattered heavy shower activity and will post any alerts for locally severe storms ... amounts on Friday could be rather heavy too, don't think it could beat Monday for a 40-mm national average but some places could get more (if you had less than 15 mm on Monday probably could get more).

I was just reporting over on the forecast contest thread that so far the rainfall in the past week has averaged 266% of normal for seven days, so as the rain only started on the fifth of those days, that would suggest about five times the normal daily rainfall across the country since Sunday began. Some places of course have exceeded that. It has been quite warm with all this rain, our temperature index sits at +1.4 degrees relative to normal. Sunshine has been about normal so far this month.

fishmahboi

Rest of tonight.
Dry tonight with some showers in the west

thursday.
Sunny start to thursday and possibly a sunny afternoon. Rain will come in during the evening but it is not likely to be heavy although there is still the risk of the odd downpour and the rain will clear during the night or early night

Friday.
UPDATE. Dry start to Friday for most but heavy rain moving in from the west during the afternoon

John mac

fishmahboi wrote: »

Rest of tonight.
Some brief heavy showers likely at this point but aside from that mainly dry and it should be dry for the rest of tonight.

thursday.
Sunny on thursday with isolated showers. Some rain likely to come in from the west. The rain will be heavy up north and the far southeast but the rain is not likely to last through the whole night and will clear away.

Friday.
UPDATE. Some heavy rain coming in during noon but during the evening it should at least ease of a little

Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium
In general, please stop copying forecasts for comment purposes, as it uses up bandwidth unnecessarily. I may have to close the thread to comments and just take private messages for input. Some of these comments also seem contradictory, as in your forecast different then examples of similarity?

Anyway, not meaning to be rude, but I just would prefer to make forecasts, get input, and make more forecasts, not try to be an on call private consultant for any one individual, that usually requires a payment arrangement. Thanks, MTC (violators may be placed on ignore).

fishmahboi: Oh ok sorry about that

Short memory?



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fishmahboi

I was only posting my own forecast not one copied from another site

John mac

k

fishmahboi

fishmahboi wrote: »

Rest of tonight.
Dry tonight with some showers in the west

thursday.
Sunny start to thursday and possibly a sunny afternoon. Rain will come in during the evening but it is not likely to be heavy although there is still the risk of the odd downpour and the rain will clear during the night or early night

Friday.
UPDATE. Dry start to Friday for most but heavy rain moving in from the west during the afternoon

Any updates mtc?