Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Sunday, 15 August, 201

Today (Sat 14th) has been the hottest day of our summer here with local temperatures around 33 C, and clear skies all day. This hot spell seems destined to last to mid-week. If you're watching the final round of the PGA golf tournament from Wisconsin you may see some active weather there as a front drifts through later in the scheduled time, I will post here if it's worth watching for just the weather alone (if you're not into golf). Looks like a good final round coming up but may be delayed at times.

It was great weather for the golf with a bit of an isolated sand storm thrown in. Lots of converging fronts and chopping and changing near the end. Mc Ilroy was almost there but veered off at the last second. Happy Gilmore and Kaymer provided excellent contrasting styles followed by a beautiful sunset.

M.T. Cranium

Well I did say there would be delays, just had the wrong reason. I missed almost all the coverage except for the playoff (dragged out in the afternoon) and I felt sorry for Dustin Johnson, although they did get a very clear warning on the rules sheet to watch out for casual looking sand traps, still and all, the one he found for the penalty really did look like a waste bunker or maybe a seagull's idea of a front lawn ... Rory McIlroy will be a force in this game soon, methinks. Ryder Cup should be interesting, from what I've read about the course in Wales. Would have to think Europe about 3-1 favourites with the U.S. team away and in such a state of turmoil (Tiger probably chosen but perhaps he will decide not to participate, Phil M is hurting, a lot of the other guys are off-form as players not likely to be selected are doing well lately). I count it as one of those few things left to do in life to play a round or two in Ireland one day (have played one in Scotland, at St Andrews of all places, and two in England over a lifetime). Despite all that, pretty ordinary golfer on a good day.

TheMilkyPirate

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well I did say there would be delays, just had the wrong reason. I missed almost all the coverage except for the playoff (dragged out in the afternoon) and I felt sorry for Dustin Johnson, although they did get a very clear warning on the rules sheet to watch out for casual looking sand traps, still and all, the one he found for the penalty really did look like a waste bunker or maybe a seagull's idea of a front lawn ... Rory McIlroy will be a force in this game soon, methinks. Ryder Cup should be interesting, from what I've read about the course in Wales. Would have to think Europe about 3-1 favourites with the U.S. team away and in such a state of turmoil (Tiger probably chosen but perhaps he will decide not to participate, Phil M is hurting, a lot of the other guys are off-form as players not likely to be selected are doing well lately). I count it as one of those few things left to do in life to play a round or two in Ireland one day (have played one in Scotland, at St Andrews of all places, and two in England over a lifetime). Despite all that, pretty ordinary golfer on a good day.

You'd make my grandmother sound interesting

M.T. Cranium

You're lucky she was ... to your grandfather (probably).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 17 August, 2010
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Well, the non-stop laugh track continues, and so does the conveyor belt of cloud and moisture ... so enjoy any breaks you can find this week ...

TODAY ... bright and even sunny at times, with considerable mid-level cloud (mackerel skies may appear) and isolated showers developing later, with fresh westerly breezes and highs near 19 C.

TONIGHT ... rain setting in and becoming rather heavy at times, 10-15 mms for most areas especially Munster and adjacent counties, lows 12-14 C.

WEDNESDAY ... variable amounts of cloud, some sunshine but showers redeveloping as another wave of moisture hits the southwest late in the day, highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY ... periods of rain, heavier in the south at first, spreading to the north as rain becomes showery across the south, 15-25 mms possible on average, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C.

FRIDAY ... showery, mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

WEEKEND ... continuing rather unsettled with showers both days, possibly turning to heavier rain Sunday, highs near 18 C.

After all that, I feel rather guilty reporting that we are into day three of a heat wave, highs near 33 C on Monday 16th, expecting more of the same on Tuesday, then slight cooling ... this heat will be building up over the western and then central U.S. but not spreading into central Canada where it should remain a bit below mid-August normals. The east coast had a warmer day today than the past several and highs reached about 32 C at DC and 30 C near NYC.

Looks as though the Russian heat has backed up to the west somewhat and is now more concentrated around the Ukraine and Belarus, even the Baltic states and Poland are well into the 30s. The problem with all that is the leftover radiation around Chernobyl which is now surrounded by the heat and exposed to greater risks of local forest fires that could release radiation. This may become a serious health problem in roughly the same areas as the original Chernobyl radiation releases in 1986.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 18 August, 2010
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TODAY ... showers followed by sunny spells, becoming quite breezy (WSW 15-30 mph) with a second batch of heavy showers with some brief thundershowers and hail developing later this morning across Connacht and to some extent further south as well, these heading rapidly east across the country. Highs near 18 C (could hit 20 C in southeast).

TONIGHT ... mostly cloudy, a few more showers and breezy, lows near 13 C.

THURSDAY ... periods of rain, heavier in the south at first, spreading to the north as rain becomes showery across the south, 15-25 mms possible on average, lows near 12 C and highs near 17 C. Some bursts of heavy rain moving through central counties mid-day to late afternoon. Risk of a thunderstorm in a few locations, and continuing moderate rain overnight into Friday, a further 10-15 mms possible.

FRIDAY ... showery, mild, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C. Strong westerly winds developing 25-40 mph in exposed western counties.

WEEKEND ... continuing rather unsettled with showers both days, possibly turning to heavier rain Sunday, highs near 18 C.

Our heat wave continued through Tuesday with highs near 31 C but there's a weak push of marine air tonight cooling things down slightly, and I expect that we'll see more cloud at times and progressively cooler weather for the rest of the week. Meanwhile, heavy rainfalls approaching Virginia and Maryland from the Gulf states in association with dying T.D. #5.

Discodog

So how will Galway fare tomorrow (Thurs) ?. The current BBC predictive does not show the rain reaching Galway until 10pm but yr are showing it from 3pm with showers in the morning.

When do you think the rain will reach Galway MT - or anyone else who fancies a guess ?

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday 6:20 p.m.
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Some rather heavy showers moving through eastern counties this evening, then a general clearing trend overnight although not totally dry, a few sprinkles of rain will be left over in a westerly flow.

As to the onset of heavier rain tomorrow, would suggest about 2-3 p.m. for Galway with the caution that there may well be some much lighter showery rain ahead of the main band heading in -- as per the previous forecast, this will become a heavy rainfall in most regions and has 30-40 mms potential for a wide swath of the country generally from southwest to northeast but with little reduction in total amounts away from that zone. The rain will last about twelve hours when it does arrive.

That timing for Galway may be well ahead of other places in Connacht as the heavier band of rain edges north while moving more steadily northeast.

Our local heat wave has ended, a push of cooler marine layer air mass cloud has blocked the sun all morning keeping us refreshingly cool at 18 C, although an actual cold front is still a day away to the northwest.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 19 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy with light rain across the south this morning, isolated showers in Connacht, otherwise partly cloudy to start the day, with gradually increasing cloud and SSE winds 15-25 mph ... periods of moderate or even heavy rain developing across the south this morning will spread to most of the central and northern counties mid-day to afternoon, possibly not until evening Donegal, Derry and Antrim, but all areas will eventually see 15-30 mms of rain through tonight with some rumbles of thunder possible ... highs near 17 C for most, 20 C possible in the southeast and 18-19 C in Dublin.

TONIGHT the rain will continue getting quite heavy at times, as per above amounts 15-30 mms in total, lows near 13 C. Winds becoming SSW 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY, heavy showers with some thundershowers and hail possible, gusty SW winds 15-30 mph, a further 5-10 mms of rain in most areas, highs near 17 C. Friday night will also be quite unsettled with further heavy showers possible, 5-10 mms additional rain.

SATURDAY ... partly cloudy, a few more showers but sunny intervals eventually, winds WSW 15-25 mph, highs near 18 C.

SUNDAY ... cloudy with a few brighter intervals, showers some of them becoming heavy, lows near 12 C and highs near 18 C.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... heavy showers at times, brighter intervals, winds veering to WNW then around to NNW, feeling cooler with highs in the 15-17 C range after lows near 8-10 C.

Our heat wave broke this morning (Wed 18th that is) with cloud that broke up at 1-2 pm and gave sunshine but highs only 21-22 C in a nice fresh westerly breeze. The heat wave further inland will break tonight as a stronger cold front arrives.

Watch for updates later today and check the other threads for various views on the heavy rainfall and thunderstorm potential.

Limerick91

Just after stumbling across this forum in Boards. I must say it is a great service.

What would your preciction be for Saturday evening in Limerick

Thanks

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 3:15 p.m.
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Will try for a more specific forecast to answer the above question in the next morning forecast, right now would just say looks showery and a bit breezy with evening temperature near 15 C.

Note in the meantime, the area of rain now moving northeast across eastern and central Ireland will tend towards drizzle and a brief interval of just dry cloudy weather before a heavier band of rain arrives this evening from the Atlantic. This is going to produce most of the predicted 20-30 mms of rain.

dacogawa

limerickros wrote: »

Just after stumbling across this forum in Boards. I must say it is a great service.

What would your preciction be for Saturday evening in Limerick

Thanks

My prediction for Limerick on Saturday evening is: drunkenness gradually increasing in the inner city, periods of moderate or even heavy violence resulting in one or two breakouts of stabbings, there could even be an occasional shooting.

Sunday looks a bit better with just a few hangovers and one or two people being released from Henry Street station after a caution

M.T. Cranium

Another update ...

ALERT for heavy rainfalls spreading into Clare, Galway and some parts of the southeast also ... the northern batch likely to move rapidly northeast towards Ulster so affecting eastern Mayo, Leitrim, Sligo, Roscommon and then on into Ulster tonight ... the southern batch possibly extending into Wicklow and eventually south Dublin, then the two areas merging over Meath and Louth later on. Some embedded thunder, rainfalls of 15-30 mms with some local urban street flooding including Galway city.

Discodog

Looks nasty on the radar !. Still dry here. The rain missed me today - so far.

km79

can i ask MTC why will it be urban flooding and not widespread ? or is it a real localised event

M.T. Cranium

Km79, I mentioned urban flooding because the rainfall amounts look marginal for serious field or stream flooding, but when this kind of rain hits an urban area with its less receptive surfaces, you tend to get brief ponding on low-lying roads before they can drain. So I was thinking mostly of roads and vehicles either running into problems with standing water, or hydroplaning.

However, it's not the heaviest rain ever seen in the region and it may just be plain old wet.

Discodog

Not much here MT. We are in the bit in the middle !. Galway looks wetter though. How many showers will be around Galway tomorrow ?.

fishmahboi

Looks like the north and parts of the southwest are most likely to get the heavy rain predicted for tonight

M.T. Cranium

This system is developing rapidly and has considerable energy, just one indication is the ship reports in the warm sector showing temperatures of 22 C or higher not that far south of Ireland (around 48-49 N) ... I base the immediate rainfall forecast on radar and satellite trends showing an occlusion developing from the low centre (which is just west of Galway Bay now) and extending off to the southeast. But there is a secondary area of heavy showers likely to come ashore in Kerry and Cork around midnight and head northeast to supply even more rain to some areas much later on.

It is somewhat showery and so amounts are going to vary considerably place to place, my forecasts try to estimate the range but also the alerts are meant as an indication of what can happen in given regions and not necessarily what will happen everywhere in the region (this is always the case with severe weather alerts, they warn you that something might happen in your region and from the wording you have to assess how likely it is, usually some of the bigger events become widespread and affect almost every point in a region, but the smaller events tend to be more hit and miss, still where they do hit there is an impact on the people right on the spot). These are sometimes more useful to people travelling by road because that tends to increase your chances of running into the conditions being warned about (although not all the way to 100% certainty).

Super-Rush

We've had a couple of very heavy showers in the last half hour.

km79

met eireann have not updated their text or graphical forecast since 1020 this morning. what a joke!!!

Super-Rush

Still raining very heavily here. Pretty epic actually.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 20 August, 2010
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TODAY ... warm and quite humid with a band of moderate to heavy showers now halfway across the country reaching the east coast before 1030h, followed in most areas by partly cloudy or even sunny skies for a time, then increasing cloud later with the slight risk of further showers developing, winds rather gusty at times in Connacht especially where SW 30-45 mph (otherwise 20-35 mph), highs 18 to 21 C with the higher values near the east coast.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy, mild, humid, occasional light showers, lows near 12 C.

SATURDAY ... the south will be cloudy with outbreaks of rain, further north, more showery and well to the north possibly a few sunny intervals, in generally SW flow of 10-20 mph and highs varying from 16 C in the rain to about 19 C further north.

SUNDAY ... partly cloudy, showers, some of these heavy at times, lows near 12 C and highs around 19 C.

MONDAY ... further showers, turning somewhat cooler, winds becoming W-NW 15-30 mph.

The trend beyond Monday will be to cool, rather dry (but still somewhat unsettled) northerly winds with highs held down to 15-17 C.

Thursday here was cloudy and cool with light rain in the morning, breaking to some sunny intervals by late afternoon, with a high near 20 C. As I mentioned before editing, I have had some trouble with virus attacks on my computer which is why I am posting later than usual. Will update if I find more to add.

dacogawa

Hi M.T.

Download malwarebytes (free version) http://www.malwarebytes.org/ update it and give it a scan, it clears off most stuff that normal anti-virus software misses.

What anti-virus software are you using if you dont mind me asking ? pm if you want

M.T. Cranium

No harm done, will keep the details off the thread but it was a slowdown from new virus definitions being downloaded at an unusual time, we have this scheduled for a time of day when we don't use our computer much (breakfast hour basically). Last night it apparently decided to start up with some new definitions at 0600 (your time) and it basically froze up my operating system. We're looking at some way of preventing this and delaying such downloads to the scheduled down-time (which is about to start, I'll have to see if it happens at all today).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 21 August, 2010
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TODAY ... mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, most places dry but a few showers possible in the southeast this morning and at various times in western counties. Highs 18 or 19 C.

TONIGHT ... cloudy, a few showers or periods of light rain especially in Connacht, mild, lows 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... cloudy with a few sunny intervals, showers developing and becoming more widespread by late afternoon or evening, highs near 18 C.

MONDAY ... cloudy, showers or periods of rain, turning slightly cooler as winds veer more to W then NW 15-25 mph, lows near 12 C, highs near 17 C.

TUESDAY ... partly cloudy, showers or longer periods of rain mostly in the southwest, lows near 9 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy, cool, lows near 7 C and highs near 17 C.

Around THURSDAY and FRIDAY of next week, a strong low is expected to arrive with gusty winds and heavy rainfalls -- more about that as we get closer to the event.

Meanwhile, today (Friday 20th) was sunny and pleasant here with a high near 22 C. Some progress has been made on fighting fires in central B.C. but the smoke is quite thick from there eastwards across the Rockies into Alberta and Saskatchewan, where it's causing a thick haze. We had this a few days back but now the wind direction is keeping us clear. The situation around Moscow has improved a lot with much cooler air and some rain, and a wind from the northeast; what's left of the Russian fires would also be sending smoke southeast towards the Caspian region.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 22 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy with brief sunny intervals (mostly in north-central counties) and scattered showers mostly across the south at first, then later arriving from the northwest to spread across the north ... a few locations could stay dry nevertheless ... winds SW to W 10-20 mph ... highs 17-18 C.

TONIGHT ... showers at times, mild with some fog developing, lows 10-12 C.

MONDAY ... some bright or even sunny intervals in the southeast, otherwise cloudy with rain spreading in from the west, becoming rather heavy at times, highs 17-19 C. ... Winds will veer from SW to WNW 15-25 mph during the day.

TUESDAY ... partly cloudy, rather cool, strong westerly breezes and showers, lows near 8 C and highs near 17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... a bright start to the day, increasing cloud, rain spreading in afternoon west, evening east, winds picking up to SSE 15-30 mph (20-40 mph near the west and south coasts). Lows near 7 C, highs near 18 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... windy with periods of rain ... details on this stormy period should be more reliable as we get closer to the event, but expect some wind gusts to 45 mph and 20-30 mms of rain, temperatures near 15 C.

This storm will cross Ireland on Thursday, at least on current indications, so that winds should be southerly on Thursday, northwest on Friday.

From then on, improving weather is likely, and perhaps a spell of warmer and dry weather to end the month; a second low trailing the Thursday low holds the key, if it stalls near northwest Spain and allows a ridge to build in, then Ireland may avoid a second wind and rain event that is still a possibility around the following weekend (28-29).

We had a pleasant sunny day here on Saturday (21st) with a high of 23 C. Nothing too dramatic happening anywhere in North America, but T.D. #6 has formed off Cape Verde and is heading slowly towards the central Atlantic where it should become Danielle some time later today or tomorrow. This is not connected to the lows later this week and by next weekend could still be trying to move north around eastern Canada.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 9:30 p.m.
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An area of moderate rain giving 3-5 mm falls will continue to work further northeast from Offaly-Laois-Tipps where it appears a bit thundery at present, towards Kildare, Dublin and Meath, Westmeath and surrounding region overnight, but this appears to be likely to weaken gradually by midnight.

Isolated showers elsewhere, some of these heavy around Galway Bay, but remaining mostly cloudy and mild overnight with lows 10-12 C.

The atmosphere becomes quite unstable across Connacht and west Ulster late tonight and Monday, expect some sharp showers with hail and thunder possible especially in Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Mayo and Roscommon, into western NI ... some local rainfalls of 10-15 mms likely in this region ... the unstable conditions will spread further southeast later Monday and bring more isolated thunder and hail showers to the rest of central and eastern Ireland eventually. Some parts of the south could escape most of this activity. Winds will remain a bit south of due west for most, veering more NW'ly only late in the day in Donegal and some parts of coastal Mayo as a trough slowly develops.

The earlier forecast remains valid in general and we're still expecting the arrival of a strong Atlantic low on Wednesday night -- most of the heavy rain with this should spread in well ahead of the centre which will arrive later Thursday. The usual pattern with these is for the rain to spread north and curl back around the centre in the northwest flow that follows, so there could be a calmer and drier interval in the south as the system moves through on Thursday. Details may also include some locally heavy thundershowers in the southeast. Looks good for the weather beyond Friday, the latest on T.D. #6 is for a long, slow meandering track through the central portions of the Atlantic lasting almost two weeks; it could arrive in Ireland in some form in its dying phases but that could be well into mid-September.

M.T. Cranium

Add to the above a risk of heavy thundery showers tonight in Galway and in parts of Kerry and Cork. Looks rather unstable already, but should get even more unstable around mid-day Monday thanks to falling freezing levels.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 August, 2010
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Alert issued for heavy thundery showers with some hail, flooding rains of about 25 mms possible, spreading rapidly east across most parts of Ireland this morning.

TODAY ... Connacht already being swept by heavy rain with some thunder and hail possible, 20-30 mms locally may produce flooding. This front is also moving into Kerry and Clare, and will make steady progress east to affect most other counties later this morning. Before it arrives, once any overnight showers clear out from the east, there will probably be a mostly dry interval this morning before the strong front arrives. I will be updating on the progress of this system ...

... once the front passes, winds will become gusty from the west, 20-35 mph with some gusts to 50 mph in exposed areas, and skies may clear for a time before more squally showers develop (these will be more frequent in Connacht, west Ulster and later in eastern Ulster and Leinster). Highs today will be about 16 or 17 C.

TONIGHT ... partly cloudy with just a few isolated showers in gusty W to NW winds 20-40 mph, although Donegal and nearby counties may see some light rain returning. It will feel chilly or even cold in the wind, although lows will be around 8 C.

TUESDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, isolated showers, winds fairly brisk from the NW at 15-30 mph, cool, highs 15-17 C.

WEDNESDAY ... a bright start, but rapidly clouding over with rain arriving in the south mid-day spreading rapidly north, becoming heavy overnight, with winds increasing to SE 20-40 mph. Morning lows 6-8 C, afternoon highs around 17 C.

THURSDAY ... heavy rain at times with some clearing, showers or isolated thunderstorms, winds may turn light and variable in many areas as centre of storm passes overhead, then turn more westerly, by mid-day rainfalls of about 30 mms are possible from the overnight rainfalls. Highs will be near 17 or 18 C.

FRIDAY ... windy with showers, turning cooler, as winds become NW 20-40 mph with local gusts to 55 mph possible, highs near 15 C.

NEXT WEEKEND should see gradual improvements as the northwest flow slowly diminishes, and cloud amounts decrease with the risk of showers moderate at first falling to slight. A dry spell of several days with temperatures recovering to near 21 C may set in later on Sunday although this is not too certain yet.

Danielle is a rapidly growing tropical storm at this time and should become a hurricane tracking towards Bermuda then north and on the latest guidance could be dying somewhere near Ireland as early as 3-4 September (this keeps changing on each run but we'll discuss it further, I'm sure). Meanwhile, the storm that is trailing the Thursday low will deepen near the Azores while Danielle moves past the Virgin Islands, and that low could also get the interest of the Hurricane centre -- the next available name is Earl (but some other storm could grab that first). Meanwhile, we had a rather cloudy day here on Sunday 22nd and it looked threatening but never rained, with a high of about 19 C. A major rainfall event is shaping up for the eastern prairies where they have already had too much rain this summer. While Russia's grain harvest is decimated by drought, ours is reduced somewhat by too much rain.

Watch this thread for alerts as the strong front moves east. :eek: