Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Tuesday, 10 August, 2010
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The warm high seems to be struggling a little bit in the model forecasts, I think the premature death of Colin has been a bit of a negative factor for absolutely dry and warm conditions as there is now less to suck moisture out of the high (tropical storms are good at that, but Colin in fact just sucked period). However, this just means it might require a bit of mobility to find the sun or the clear night skies. Read on ...

TODAY ... A few showers are working their way south from about Galway to Louth, while the day starts partly sunny and mild in the south (rain just offshore could spread some cloud and drizzle onto south coast beaches and headlands). Later in the day, more extensive bands of showers are likely to develop out of the spread out remnants of that central frontal trough, and become more northwest to southeast in their tracking, as winds veer around slowly to WNW 15-30 mph. This won't prevent some sunshine and a rather changeable day for many, with some warmish sunny intervals, some pelting showers and perhaps the odd rumble of thunder or small hail. It also does not look like everyone will get rain, the coverage will be something like 40% at worst. Highs will be 15-17 C north to 17-19 C south. The far north from Donegal to Antrim might see some sharp showers too from a more northerly source.

TONIGHT ... showers will tend to die out with longer clear intervals, but there will be a few leftover brief showers even well after midnight, and lows of about 6-8 C in a northwest flow (10 C west coast and inner cities).

WEDNESDAY ... Eastern Ulster and possibly Meath and north Dublin will stay under considerable cloud with frequent light showers in a gusty NW wind, part of the backwash from the low which is only going to be retreating into the North Sea at a snail's pace (this means most of England and Scotland will be cloudy and showery too) ... but elsewhere, it should be mainly dry with about an equal measure of cloud and sunshine. Some south coast locations could do better on the sunshine, and highs will respond, with 15-17 C in the northeast to 18-20 C south central.

WED NIGHT (for the sky watchers) still looks fairly promising but there will be more cloud right along the east coast than inland, and in general it will be less windy and quite chilly away from the coasts and cities, 5-7 C possibly for the lows.

THURSDAY will continue about the same with more cloud than sun in the northeast, considerable sunshine further west, and just the slight chance of a sprinkly light shower here or there lasting a few minutes. Highs will be generally 19-21 C.

THURSDAY NIGHT still looks good for widespread clear skies and the only risky areas for cloud seem to be near the east coast and especially the northeast and southeast corners. Also some low cloud and drizzle will form at times near the west coast. Lows will be 5-8 C inland.

FRIDAY will become a bit warmer again with a mixture of cloud and sun, highs of 19-22 C. Low cloud and drizzle could be wafting about near the north and west coasts in a very light NW flow.

WEEKEND ... there are some indications of intervals of low cloud, mist and drizzle trying to spoil the warm, dry pattern in some places -- I think the best bet for warm sunshine might be counties from Kerry up to Offaly and back down to Waterford. Other regions may have longer cloudy intervals. This will affect the pattern of temperatures, making 23-25 C possible mainly in the inland south to the south coast in light northeast winds. Other regions may be closer to 20 C and suffer a bit more cloud but we may get a better read on this tomorrow.

The warm spell is still expected to peak around Monday-Tuesday when it could get as warm as 25 C or so.

Our Monday here started wet and ended up sunny after 3 p.m., but it was only about 19 C. Heading out after this to check for clear skies and auroral sightings. Hot and humid across much of the continent south of the border, and relatively warm and unsettled across southern Canada. The Russian heat wave still looks "locked in" for many more days and will also tend to drift west somewhat as a front pushes towards the Baltic.

Do you know what areas the showers will miss?

pauldry

Damn you Colin. Another spell of fine weather potentially gone. Still sunny this morning but chilly enough.

fishmahboi

There is an area of high pressure nearing the south-west and it seems to be weakening some of the showers developing on the west coast( taken from met eireann 3 hour radar)

Most areas staying dry for the rest of the day with further sunny spells - some scattered showers too though. Winds will be moderate, occasionally fresh west to northwest. Highest temperatures 16 to 20 degrees, mildest across south Leinster and south Munster.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Tuesday, 7:30 p.m.
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This is mostly for the night sky watchers but in general, the latest computer model guidance is slightly more encouraging and at least doesn't downgrade the possibility of finding clear locations both Wed and Thursday nights. For one thing, the cloud modelling around the North Sea low has trended east and away from Dublin on the latest guidance.

In general terms, Atlantic highs are trying to push through the Russian block and setting up a cycle of refreshing the stagnant highs over northwest Russia while building heights over Scandinavia. This is subtly changing the regional balance as drier air filters back west around the northern edge of the forthcoming North Sea blocking low which is progged to drift south and even a bit southwest over the weekend.

This is a pattern that can lock in for a fairly long duration and gradually morph into a warm, dry east to northeast flow across the UK and Ireland. So while there is bound to be some low cloud development as the warmer air aloft moves in late in the week, the high will also be bringing in a steady flow of dry, low dew-point air from a northerly source, so that it will probably be a see-saw battle between dry air and low cloud for various segments of the land (and sea where the low cloud has the advantage). In general terms I would expect the south central counties to fare best for sunshine through the period given the slight N-NE wind flow, and coastal Connacht around through Ulster to north of Dublin to fare worst as they will be more exposed to onshore flow.

So I continue to think that for the sky-watchers while Dublin and Wicklow may turn out alright, the chances improve to the west for seeing large patches of clearing skies these next few nights. I was out having a look here last night, found a few clear spots but not a large enough clearing to get any real chance to see early Perseids, and as far as I could tell in these brief breaks no northern lights here.

pauldry

Hope your right MT, today I finally got to cut my wet lawn after waiting since mid July because of the grass being constantly wet. Air seems slightly drier tonight but the amount of moisture in the atmosphere around here will make the possibility of any heatwave type conditions improbable, the best I hope for is a few dry days

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 August, 2010
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TODAY ... morning showers for Munster will probably fade out by mid-day with some breaks in the overcast there by afternoon, isolated showers redeveloping. Highs near 17 C.

Connacht and most of Leinster will have a bright start with sunny intervals, winds NW 10-20 mph and a slight risk of showers developing around mid-day, highs near 19 C (except 17 C western Mayo and Galway).

Ulster and some northern parts of Leinster will be mostly cloudy all day with periodic light rain in NW winds 15-25 mph. There may be a few brief sunny breaks later. Highs will be 15-17 C.

TONIGHT ... clear intervals will develop but the best chances for good viewing of the night sky will be in counties like Offaly, Kildare, Laois and the western parts of Dublin and Wicklow. Rural lows could drop to 5-7 C here, and remain near 10 C in coastal southeast Ireland where more cloud is possible. Further west and north, more extensive cloud is likely with patchy drizzle, but also some clear breaks, lows 8-10 C on average. Winds will drop off to NNW 5-10 mph.

THURSDAY ... another patchwork quilt of cloud and sunny breaks, probably more sunshine in central counties as one area of cloud will back up into eastern counties while another edges in from the west, mainly low cloud here with mist and drizzle. The eastern cloud may contain showers and stronger NNW winds than further west. Highs will vary from 19 C central to 17 C on the west and east coasts.

THURSDAY NIGHT ... extensive clearing should develop during the evening, eastern Ulster and the west coast are more likely to retain cloud cover. It may be quite a chilly night in rural central locations with lows 4-7 C. Elsewhere it will hold at about 8-10 C.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals in the north and west, sunny south and east, a bit warmer with light northerly winds. Highs to 21 C.

SATURDAY ... Hazy and warmer with light rain or drizzle at times in western counties, more sunshine east and south central, probably rather cloudy in Ulster as well, highs inland and south coast near 22 C, otherwise near 18 C.

SUNDAY to TUESDAY ... this looks like quite a warm spell with more sunshine developing, cloud confined mostly to the outer west and north coasts, and inland highs of 22-25 C possible.

The models keep hinting that a weak tropical storm will try to push through the Azores high towards western Ireland, this may arrive mid to late week with showers but not much wind as it weakens. However, the seepage of very warm and hazy air from eastern Europe will also continue and this may be a factor in eastern Ireland at times until the block breaks down some time well beyond next Tuesday, possibly end of the week or later.

Meanwhile, I just got in before typing this up, having a look at Venus and the night sky in general, will be back out later to look for any early Perseids, as we have clear skies. It was partly cloudy and 22 C earlier today. The highs in NYC and DC were near record values (37 C in DC). TD #5 has formed in the eastern Gulf, it seems like a 50-50 chance that it will even get a name before drifting inland in a couple of days.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday, 7 p.m.
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Cloud cover is about 70-80 per cent across Ireland at this hour with most of the showers in Munster although a few light sprinkles showing up northwest of Dublin. The trend does look slightly encouraging for sky watchers in the Dublin area as a few breaks have developed upstream in the NNW air flow, but I will post around 9 p.m. with an assessment for your interest there, from my own observations last night here, I realized that there would be a rather short time window to see the three planets (Venus, Mars and Saturn) as only Venus is bright enough to show up clearly before full darkness sets in (here around 10 p.m., could be more like 10:15-10:30 there I suppose). I could see the other two in binoculars. In any case, the Moon will not be close to them until tomorrow evening (anyone viewing the crescent new moon tonight should look for Mercury in its vicinity, for sure needing binoculars for that).

Anyway, look for an update at 9 p.m. on the potential for clear skies 10 p.m. to 0100h. I still think tomorrow evening looks promising with generally less cloud around than this evening.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday 8:50 p.m.
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There seems to be a slow clearing trend underway in the Dublin region now, and with any luck this will accelerate after sunset with possibly large breaks in the overcast to the southwest as well. Prospects may be better for the midnight to 0200h Perseids than the 10 p.m. planet viewing, and early in the night it may be a case of having to find some clear patches more than later on when they may become more extensive. May update again if I see anything to add.

dacogawa

Thanks M.T. its was breaking and has now broken up completely in Dublin south, thanks a million

fishmahboi

Is there any thundery downpours expected for next week?

pauldry

Cloudy in the West but we dont matter so its ok

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy to start in most regions, breaking to sunny intervals in many places by late morning, in a slight northerly breeze. One or two sprinkles of rain can't be ruled out and it will definitely be showery for a while in eastern Ulster. Even the west coast could clear out eventually today as the breeze may not be onshore so much as down the coast, but Donegal could remain overcast longer. Highs could reach 20-21 C wherever it clears and 18 C where it remains more cloudy.

TONIGHT ... extensive clear skies are possible with cloud sometimes coming and going in a few spots. I will update this for the astronomy interests (Perseids meteor shower peak tonight). Lows may reach 6-8 C in rural locations and stay near 10 C around the coasts and in large towns.

FRIDAY ... another dry day for most with at least some sunshine if not longer sunny intervals, highs 19-21 C, light north to northeast winds. Note that the wind flow will be backing around very slightly which will tend to place the east coast at more risk of low coastal cloud than before (winds NNE 5-10 mph). There may be an interval of light drizzle by evening in the west.

SATURDAY ... hazy sunshine, perhaps low cloud and fog/drizzle near some coasts, brighter inland, likely to turn quite warm anywhere with any amount of sunshine, highs could reach 22-24 C after lows near 12 C.

SUNDAY ... sunny and very warm in many places, coastal low cloud and drizzle or fog coming and going, but may be possible to find coastal spots with sunshine too, highs near 25 C inland and 20 C around the coasts.

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... somewhat conflicting signals, it may stay warm and dry or it may get cloudier with light showers although fairly warm. I am leaning towards the dry and warm scenario but confidence only moderate. Highs would be 22-24 C if this is so, or 20-22 C if more cloud.

LATER IN THE WEEK ... some models are showing showery and cooler weather, but frankly, the evolution of the North Sea low later this week into France could be a bit off, and if so, all features beyond Sunday would be picking up expanding model error, so would say wait and see on this showery period, could turn out drier than expected as ridge potential remains in the picture.

Well, I was just out before making this forecast having a look at the clear evening skies, no luck seeing Perseids yet for me, perhaps later on when I go out again at midnight. Venus was almost set and looked a bit orange in the twilight glow rather than golden. It was very hard to find Mars and Saturn with the naked eye and I needed the binocs. Realizing that tomorrow evening, the Moon will be hard to spot because the ecliptic is now running almost parallel to the western horizon and so the Moon is skimming along very close to the horizon well after sunset (it's at 2 deg south and dropping now).
The better visual presentation may be on Friday evening then.

It was a very nice day here on Wednesday, sunny from 1030 on, and about 24 C by mid-afternoon. We are heading into a heat wave (here we don't have these cloud issues so at roughly the same pattern of pressure and thickness as you'll have this weekend, we get 28-30 C). Meanwhile it was very hot again in the eastern states, 36 C at DC, 33 C at NYC.

The Russian heat wave has relaxed its grip very slightly around Moscow as a weak front pushed through earlier and turned the winds northwest, but a new high is replacing the old one and it won't take long to get back to the full heat wave which continues to lurk further south.

As for thunderstorms next week, as per the above post, nothing very definite to say on that as it looks more showery than stormy, if it materializes.

dacogawa

Good Morning M.T.

Hope all is well and you got to see some Perseids last night ?

How is it looking for Dublin and Wicklow later on please, we've been under a blanket of cloud all day that seems to be breaking up (fingers crossed).

Thanks again for all the astronomy updates

M.T. Cranium

I only saw two or three in quite a long viewing, mind you I live in the midst of a large urban area and the light pollution even in the local park is considerable, but I had the feeling the peak was yet to come (tonight hopefully).

Venus is very low and setting shortly after sunset, which makes the other two planets very tough to spot without binocs at least here in the city.

Jupiter very bright and prominent in the southeast by midnight.

Yes, I am also optimistic about skies beginning to clear soon in Dublin. Will post an update on that as soon as I can get a better grasp of the rate of change underway (meaning the latest visible satellite image due in any moment now). Let us know how many you see, I am dragging the better half out to see them tonight here and it would be nice to anticipate 10-20 an hour rather than 1-2. Do they travel this far? (just kidding) :cool:

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday 7:30 p.m.
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Cloud does seem to be thinning and breaking up gradually so that by 10 p.m. onwards there could be patches of clear sky available for viewing the Perseids, I think the central and eastern regions will have better chances than the western third, but even there some breaks may develop. I will update at 9 p.m. with some more specific info about where clear skies are likely so check back around then (maybe SC will take you up in his plane above the clouds).

Lucky me, I am going to have perfect viewing conditions here tonight, and warm too (25 C here by 3 p.m. then dropping off only to 16 C tonight).

jambofc

unfortunatly very cloudy here about 85-90% cover :mad:

M.T. Cranium

Looks like clear patches over Dublin and the hills to the south on the 2100h satellite imagery. I guess with the best viewing midnight to 0200 usually for the Perseids, there is some time left for clearing to spread. Keep your fingers crossed, but maybe we can get some other reports around the Dublin region.

dacogawa

Thick as mud in south east Dublin at the moment :mad: everyone (rte, met) said it would break, please god make it break!

Jean Byrne (RTE Weather) said it would break up later on, I hope she's right

The cloud is coming from the north at the moment, anyone north of Dublin seeing anything breaking ?

fishmahboi

Starting to clear here in wicklow

Also it looks like models are suggesting that next week is going to have alot of rain

Su Campu

There's a clear slot in the north Irish Sea trying its best to make progress westwards as it moves south. Currently it's clearing in Co. Down and west of the Isle of Mann, and it looks like this clearance may pivot further and bring better conditions to Louth, Meath, Dublin and Wicklow later.

http://www.sat24.com/gb

snowjon

Yes - good clear skies here since dusk!

I spent 30mins meteor spotting from 1030 and saw 8 in total - 2 of them were really bright leaving streaks of light in their wake:)

however, I think last years show was a bit better.

We have been lucky enough the last few years to have clear skies for viewing the perseids but tonight was just a bit too chilly to stay outside!!

Su Campu

That clear slot as now made it into Louth and eastern Meath. No sign of it here as yet. Want to go to bed but will give it another half an hour....:rolleyes:

g5hn710m4xpdwy

There has been no clear skies over Leixlip yet. It's a shame, at least I saw about 5 darting by last night and 4 that flashed by with a trail last night!

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy to start with some morning drizzle in parts of Munster, but with some sunny breaks developing over eastern counties this morning. Eventually these sunny breaks may show up elsewhere too, but the cloud is hanging tough in the west. Winds will be more northerly at 10-15 mph and highs between 18 and 21 C, the higher values where the sun breaks through.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with patchy drizzle, a few clear spots too, and rather mild with lows 11-12 C except where any clearing persists (7-9 C there).

SATURDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, some risk of low cloud and drizzle spreading back from the east towards parts of Leinster at times, winds N to NE at 10-15 mph. Highs 19-23 C with the warmer values likely in the south and southwest, some central counties too with enough clearing.

SUNDAY ... continuing mixture of cloud and sun with lows near 12 C and highs near 22 C on average, some potential for warmer highs in south.

MONDAY ... hazy, warm, lows near 12 C and highs near 23 C.

TUESDAY ... increasing cloud, periods of rain developing, heavy at times. Lows near 13 C and highs near 21 C.

MID-WEEK ... heavy showers at times, cooler again, highs near 17 C.

Hopefully we can wring some sunshine out of this cloudy air mass and that will warm up the temperatures, but some places are going to stay overcast and therefore cooler ... the best temperatures and sunshine are probably going to develop in counties like Wexford, Waterford, Cork, Limerick, Tipps, Laois, Carlow and Offaly over the weekend.

Meanwhile, we had warm sunshine here (feeling guilty now) with max 25 C on Thursday, clear tonight (heading out after this to view Perseids) and still warm out, 17 C ... expecting near 30 C on Friday. The east coast heat wave has broken due to easterly inflow from the Atlantic, the hot humid air has been pushed back to the west and south of a front that is just south of DC now, so some storms have developed in that region.

dacogawa

Hi M.T.

So did you & the better half see any Perseids ? Thanks for all the help with the cloud, I did go to Wicklow in the end and it broke up really well around 2am saw around 30 in 30 minutes, hope your viewing was just as fruitful

fishmahboi

I hope that tonight is clearer than last since last night was a huge dissapointment because I didn't spot any meteors due to the stupid cloud.

M.T. Cranium

Glad to hear that you saw a good show, Dacogawa, we had perfect viewing conditions although the city light pollution issue to deal with, and perhaps because of that or perhaps because the event had fizzled out after 06GMT, we saw nothing much here. If that was a temporary lull it lasted about an hour (06-07 GMT) but it may signal poor prospects for tonight there.

Anyone with clear skies now should find a clear view of the western horizon for a lovely view of the crescent moon to the left of Venus (a very bright object near the horizon). With binocs you should be able to find Mars closer to the Moon than Venus, somewhere between the Moon and Venus and probably a bit higher up. In rural settings you might be able to see Mars without binocs. Go out now and look if you're interested because the three of them will set fairly soon after 10 p.m. This will be the case on following nights as Mars approaches Venus in the sky, but of course the Moon will rapidly leave the scene and start waxing towards first quarter. Mars and Venus have their closest approach on 23 August. By then, you'll need binocs for sure as Venus will start to fade soon in the sun's glow.

Sorry, I have been otherwise occupied all morning and cannot offer a weather update yet, perhaps later on ... not that you can really update a forecast as vague as my last one. :cool:

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 August, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy this morning in western counties with intervals of light rain or drizzle, moving south and probably dissipating mid-day, sunny breaks could follow, highs 18-20 C. Partly cloudy and warm in most eastern counties, but cloud may back in from the east at times by afternoon, especially coastal southeast, otherwise quite settled and highs 20-22 C.

TONIGHT ... hazy or misty with drizzle at times in the west, lows 11-13 C.

SUNDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, hazy, quite warm, highs 21-23 C but low cloud may be present near west coast at times with sea fog.

MONDAY ... hazy sunshine and warm with increasing cloud, possible showers Connacht by late afternoon, lows near 14 C and highs near 23 C away from cooler sea breezes.

TUESDAY ... showers and even a slight chance of thunderstorms, warm and humid, stronger southerly winds developing veering westerly, highs near 21 C.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... possibly a wet two days with heavy showers and local thunderstorms returning, highs near 17 C.

The Azores ridge wants to link through to the Russian heat ridge but has found a path to the north of Ireland and Scotland because of the stubborn persistence of low pressure over France and Germany (so blame them) ... meanwhile, it was sunny and hot here on Friday 13th (32 C) and will be similar through the weekend and into next week. Somewhat less heat and humidity across much of the eastern U.S. today but it's still there in the Ohio valley.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 15 August, 2010
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TODAY ... fair skies with variable amounts of high cloud that may dim the sunshine especially in the west and possibly southeast at times, but generally warm and sunny with highs 21-23 C (a bit lower on exposed outer coasts) with a northeast breeze backing to southeast later, variable near shore.

TONIGHT ... clear but hazy, turning misty or even foggy in some coastal areas and in one or two inland valleys. Lows varying from 8 to 12 C.

MONDAY ... increasing cloud, the best sunshine in the east, still quite warm and increasingly muggy, showery rain becoming heavy at times in Connacht and reaching a bit further east by late in the day, highs 20-23 C east, 18-20 C west. Southerly winds increasing late in the day to 15-30 mph.

TUESDAY ... early morning showers or periods of rain, heavy at times, moving across the country from west to east, then clearing later, 10-20 mms rain potential, highs near 19 C, winds SW to W 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY ... heavy showers are possible in a mostly cloudy SW to W flow, especially in Connacht. Highs near 17 C north to 19-20 C south.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY ... showery especially north, west, but possibly staying dry in southeast, with warm air trying to return from south, highs likely to vary considerably from 21 C south to 16 C north.

Today (Sat 14th) has been the hottest day of our summer here with local temperatures around 33 C, and clear skies all day. This hot spell seems destined to last to mid-week. If you're watching the final round of the PGA golf tournament from Wisconsin you may see some active weather there as a front drifts through later in the scheduled time, I will post here if it's worth watching for just the weather alone (if you're not into golf). Looks like a good final round coming up but may be delayed at times.

The Russian heat seems to have moderated slightly in the latitude of Moscow at least, and the core has shifted further west too, into Belarus and northern Ukraine. This is making the primary frontal zone reactivated further west instead of having two frontal zones in Germany and Russia, now it's just the one in western Poland.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 16 August, 2010
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TODAY ... Connacht will be cloudy with intervals of rain, and a few heavier showers, giving about 10-12 mms. This rain will slowly spread into Ulster and west Munster by mid-day or early afternoon but much of the south and east will remain dry with morning sunshine and afternoon cloud. Highs will vary from 17-19 C in the rain to 20-23 C in the south and east.

TONIGHT ... Continuing showers heavier in the north, 5-10 mms additional rainfall there, becoming foggy in many places by morning, mild and humid, lows 12-14 C.

TUESDAY ... Morning showers ending in the northeast, otherwise bright intervals with fresh westerly winds developing, still rather warm with highs 18-20 C. Showers redeveloping evening or overnight.

WEDNESDAY ... showery especially in the southwest but rain spreading gradually to most other areas, lows near 10 C and highs near 17 C.

THURSDAY and FRIDAY ... slightly warmer again especially south, southeast where it may get back to around 20 C, more likely to stay wet further north and about 17 C.

WEEKEND ... showery, temperatures near 20 C.

The weather here continues sunny and hot (33 C on Sunday 15th) ... severe storms developed further east than the golf tournament and hit parts of southern Ontario ... "only" 26 C in DC today due to lots of cloud and drizzle in an east wind.