Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 7:45 a.m.
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With the front now about halfway across Ireland, it appears to be somewhat weaker, still capable of giving 10-15 mms of rain in about a two-hour period as it passes -- it should be across the east coast by about 0930h. The southern portion of the front is weakening faster and may just become patchy light rain for the southeast.

Discodog

MT when you next post please could you give your best guess as to when Wednesday's rain will reach Galway. Thanks

Just noticed that yr.no are saying that the rain won't reach Galway !

M.T. Cranium

The rain from the mid-week storm should arrive on the south coast about 10h on Wednesday and will then move slowly north across the southern half of the country during the rest of the day, probably reaching Galway fairly late, perhaps about midnight or 0200h Thursday. It will continue this slow drift north while intensifying and the heavier amounts seem likely to fall across the southeast inland counties; the current track of the low centre is basically offshore perhaps making a landfall briefly in Wexford and then on towards south Wales or Somerset ... however if the track were to shift north again this timing would probably speed up accordingly. In any case, the heaviest rain is likely to fall overnight Wednesday into Thursday with potential for about 30-40 mms in the southeast, 20-30 mms in most other counties although perhaps only 10-20 in Donegal and some other northern locations.

Otherwise, the forecast stands about as before, Danielle is certainly on the kind of track that can eventually find its way towards Ireland, as the consensus of models and hurricane watchers seems to be for a slow recurve to begin this coming weekend around 60 deg W possibly stalling for some time well off Nova Scotia then heading east in the jet stream. In the meantime, the low trailing the mid-week low (which ends up stalling west of Portugal on this coming weekend) deepens on at least one model to hurricane intensity but shows no signs of forward motion as high pressure builds up over Ireland on the weekend. That will make a nice change from this conveyor belt of lows the past week or so.

km79

Discodog wrote: »

MT when you next post please could you give your best guess as to when Wednesday's rain will reach Galway. Thanks

Just noticed that yr.no are saying that the rain won't reach Galway !

WINDFINDER have also downgraded from 40 mm to almost 0 for galway???

M.T. Cranium

There are indications that this system for Wed-Thurs is speeding up which will tend to bring the rainfall through mostly on Wednesday night, and perhaps lower the amounts somewhat ... and the effects on the weather later Thursday and into Friday would be generally good since the strong wind gradient would rapidly disappear from Ireland on Thursday morning in this faster scenario. I would say, more clarity on this should be available in the morning forecasts, as there are some models holding to the earlier scenario.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There are indications that this system for Wed-Thurs is speeding up which will tend to bring the rainfall through mostly on Wednesday night, and perhaps lower the amounts somewhat ... and the effects on the weather later Thursday and into Friday would be generally good since the strong wind gradient would rapidly disappear from Ireland on Thursday morning in this faster scenario. I would say, more clarity on this should be available in the morning forecasts, as there are some models holding to the earlier scenario.

Hmm according to bbc's rainfall forecast (which is sometimes pants but still) it looks as if the worst of the rain will be centered around Britain more than Ireland

downwiththatsor

fishmahboi wrote: »

Hmm according to bbc's rainfall forecast (which is sometimes pants but still) it looks as if the worst of the rain will be centered around Britain more than Ireland

BBC's rainfall forecast was spot on last Thursday when the forecast heavy rain never materialized in Kerry but for a brief heavy burst late evening, met eireann were forecasting heavy rain countrywide but i have noticed that their forecasts seem to deal with the eastern half of the country when rainfall moves in a northerly direction as opposed to the typical west to east low pressure fronts. I guess the population on the east coast skews their forecast somewhat.

pauldry

Looks to be more of a showery meh day that any serious storm happening now. Total Downgrade.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 August, 2010
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Full moon occurs today at 1805h summer time.

TODAY ... partly cloudy and quite windy especially Connacht (W 30-50 mph there at times) with passing showers and a few intervals of steady rain mostly for Monaghan, Louth, Meath, also Armagh and Down, but a general improving trend by afternoon as winds diminish somewhat and sunny intervals become longer. Rather cool with highs 14-16 C north, 16-18 C south.

TONIGHT ... clear intervals, rather chilly especially away from the south and west coasts, lows may reach 4-7 C but 7-10 C around the coasts, some increase in cloud towards morning, rain not far away by sunrise in Kerry, Cork and Waterford.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy in the south with periods of rain setting in on moderate east winds to 25 mph, 10-20 mms likely by late afternoon, highs near 15 C. Further north, increasing cloud and eventually some spits of rain in central counties but probably dry to the north, highs near 17 C.

The rain will continue most of Wednesday night and could become rather heavy in the southeast giving 15-30 mms there. Amounts further north will drop off quite steadily and some places north of about Dublin to Clare will remain dry. Lows will be 8-10 C during the overnight and winds will back from east to northeast then northwest, 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY ... partly cloudy, still a few showers (morning rain may continue in southeast for a while), brighter by afternoon, highs near 18 C in a gusty NW wind 15-30 mph.

FRIDAY ... mostly sunny but some cloudy intervals and isolated showers, morning lows near 7 C, highs near 17 C. Moderate westerly breezes.

SATURDAY ... quite breezy (WNW 20-35 mph) especially north, isolated showers, but generally dry and rather cool, lows near 6 C and highs of 16 C.

SUNDAY ... sunny and a bit warmer, highs 18-20 C after quite a cool start (lows may be 3-5 C rural).

This warm, dry spell will continue for several days apparently, as a trailing low stalls near the Azores and possibly turns into a tropical storm there, eventually drifting north towards Iceland. Hurricane Danielle could try to break through this blocking high some time around 5-7 September after quite a slow motion meandering cruise through the central Atlantic. That could bring a significant rain or wind event to Ireland in about two weeks' time.

Meanwhile, today here was sunny and rather warm at 23 C ... heavy rain in New England today as the heat wave has ended anywhere north of DC.

dogdaycare

I like the chance of a reaload even more a thundery breakdown but judging from some charts it could be a couple of weeks before the real heat builds back in

Discodog

The BBC, yr.no, Metcheck are all showing no rain for Galway today or Wednesday.

WolfeIRE

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

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Full moon occurs today at 1805h summer time.

According to folklore, tonight's full Moon is the Sturgeon Moon, named by Native American tribes of the Great Lakes who caught lots of sturgeon during the month of August. A moon named after an ancient slimy fish? Go outside and take a look. It's prettier than it sounds. from spaceweather.com

Deep Easterly

WolfeIRE wrote: »

According to folklore, tonight's full Moon is the Sturgeon Moon, named by Native American tribes of the Great Lakes who caught lots of sturgeon during the month of August. A moon named after an ancient slimy fish? Go outside and take a look. It's prettier than it sounds. from spaceweather.com

Aye, t'was damn fine purdy last night too.

Lumi

WolfeIRE wrote: »

According to folklore, tonight's full Moon is the Sturgeon Moon, named by Native American tribes of the Great Lakes who caught lots of sturgeon during the month of August. A moon named after an ancient slimy fish? Go outside and take a look. It's prettier than it sounds. from spaceweather.com

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Aye, t'was damn fine purdy last night too.

It's also the smallest full moon of the year!


http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100824-science-space-years-smallest-full-moon-tonight-2010/

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 25 August, 2010
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Temperatures fell as low as 3 C at Claremorris and 4 C at Ballyhaise before sunrise ... and the rain is slowly edging north towards the south coast. The low is splitting into two centres, one of which will race past later today, and a second wave on a similar track Thursday. It may be difficult for much of this moisture to move very far north although there will be extensive cloud and some light rain in central counties, eventually.

TODAY ... periods of rain on moderate east winds across the south, possibly becoming a bit heavier in the southeast, but amounts may be held down to about 10-15 mms as the heaviest rain slides by offshore. Watch for updates on that ... further north in central Ireland, cloudy with light east winds and quite chilly, the odd spit of light rain or drizzle, and for all southern and central counties, highs may be held down to 13-15 C (somewhat warmer on outer south coast and anywhere that gets a bit of sunshine) ... further north still, the cloud will be broken at times and some sun will get through, while an isolated shower or two could develop, in light northeast winds. Highs may get to 16 or 17 C because of the brighter skies.

TONIGHT ... light rain may continue at times in the far south, but there may be brief clear intervals with light to moderate northeast winds elsewhere, and lows 8-11 C.

THURSDAY ... a repeat performance as phase two of the complex low moves past, another burst of moderate rain possible near Wexford but otherwise just some light rain in a few places in the south, brighter central and north, as winds slowly back from northeast to north. Highs 14-17 C.

FRIDAY ... mostly sunny but some cloudy intervals and isolated showers, morning lows near 6 C, highs near 16 C. Moderate westerly breezes 20-30 mph at times.

SATURDAY ... quite breezy (WNW 20-35 mph) especially north, isolated showers, but generally dry and rather cool, lows near 6 C and highs of 16 C.

SUNDAY ... sunny and a bit warmer, highs 18-20 C after quite a cool start (lows may be 2-5 C rural).

This warm, dry spell will continue for several days as a trailing low stalls near the Azores and possibly turns into a tropical storm there, eventually drifting north towards Iceland next week. The dry spell may last to about Wednesday 1st September and even then may not totally break down as the high remains fairly close but more cloud and some showers could sweep in from the southwest by then. Meanwhile, Hurricane Danielle could try to break through this blocking high some time around 5-7 September after the Azores low gets out of the way, and after quite a slow motion meandering cruise through the central Atlantic. I am still thinking that could bring a significant rain or wind event to Ireland in about two weeks' time, but first we'll have to see if this storm holds together, declines the faint possibility of a landfall in eastern Canada, and survives several more days in the less heated waters of the central Atlantic.

Today (Tuesday 24th) was a sunny, very warm day here -- it has cooled off nicely after sunset but the high was about 25 C. No smoke or humidity in the air today, meanwhile hot weather will develop over the inland west and move across North America in the next five days to return heat wave conditions to the east coast by the weekend and next week.

Watch for updates; I have the feeling that the rain may turn out to be less of an issue than many of us were thinking but the southeast could get in on the action. It's more definite that southern England will see a heavy downpour from these twin lows.

Babooshka

I could see my breath for the first time this side of summer this morning in Dublin ...it was depressing

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Wednesday 8 p.m.
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Seems that the rain from "phase one" of the two-part low has only just scraped the southeast coast with some very light rain, and at present the second phase is on a slightly more southerly track so this evening's light rain in the south might be all that anyone will see from this event ... and with cloud well broken in northern and even central counties, the overnight lows could once again fall into the 5-7 C range in some rural locations tonight, but closer to 10-11 C in the south.

Everything else in the longer range continues to unfold about as expected, T.D. #7 has formed in the Cape Verde region and will probably become "Earl" later today or tonight (U.S. time) -- it seems likely to follow a rather similar track to Danielle for the next week. I also think that the low approaching the Azores could become a tropical storm at some point, and the next name in the list would be Fiona, followed by Gaston. Going by names only, Fiona seems more likely to reach Ireland than Gaston which might head for France perhaps.

Lumi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Wednesday 8 p.m.
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the next name in the list would be Fiona, followed by Gaston. Going by names only, Fiona seems more likely to reach Ireland than Gaston which might head for France perhaps.

Well if she does and she's anything like her namesake she's sure to leave a trail of havoc & destruction along the west coast :D

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 26 August, 2010
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TODAY ... sunny with afternoon cloudy intervals (mostly higher cloud) in most places, but thicker cloud may obscure the sun in the southeast at times. There is a slight chance of an isolated shower but most places will remain dry. Highs will reach 15-17 C in a northeast breeze of 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... clear intervals, very cool again with rural lows in the 3-7 C range, while a few coastal and urban locations stay closer to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... intervals of cloud and sunshine, just a slight chance of a brief shower in Connacht, winds NW 15-25 mph. Highs 15-17 C.

SATURDAY ... partly cloudy, slight risk of showers in the north, breezy (W to NW 20-30 mph at times) with lows 5-8 C and highs 15-17 C.

SUNDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, a very cool start (lows 2-6 C in rural areas), highs 17-19 C, light NW winds.

MONDAY and TUESDAY look sunny and a bit warmer in the daytime at least, although nights will remain cool ... highs could edge into the low 20s.

The outlook is for a warming trend on southeast winds, more cloud later in the week, and an increasing risk of showers. The remnants of Hurricane Danielle could be in the picture around the weekend of the 4th-5th but this is a long way off in model forecast terms, so more of a "keep this in the back of your mind" concept -- after this week's events, we have to bear in mind that sometimes the computer models are fully taxed with the challenges of the first two or three days. By the way, Earl has formed and seems to be trying to keep up with Danielle -- they might be an item.

It was sunny and hot here on Wednesday with a high of 30 C. This is likely to change drastically by later "today" (it's not that here yet) as a strong cold front is just about to blast through. This may lead to some severe storms in parts of western Canada later Thursday.

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Thursday, 8:45 p.m.
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Despite the widespread dry weather today and clear skies for some, a weak trough feature has developed around Westmeath and Offaly, and could bring some brief showers to some parts of these counties as well as Kildare or Laois a bit later on, but rainfall amounts would be slight, 1-2 mms at most.

Otherwise, estimates of the eventual fate of Danielle continue to suggest that it may be in the vicinity of Ireland around the weekend following (4-5 September) but nothing very definite yet, the most likely scenario is for it to rush past the northwest coast at enough of a distance out to sea that winds might increase slightly at some point. We'll have to wait until the middle of next week, I think, before having really much of a clear idea what will happen to this hurricane in its dying phases.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 27 August, 2010
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TODAY ... sunshine will be stronger in parts of the north as extensive high cloud works across southern counties this morning, but even there, some sun will cast weak shadows ... later on, a few showers may develop in Connacht as weak troughs develop in a moderate northwest flow ... highs will generally reach about 17 C.

TONIGHT ... clearing again with rather chilly overnight lows of 4-8 C in the rural areas, 8-10 C cities and coasts ... any evening showers are likely to dissipate and lead to some patchy ground fog.

SATURDAY ... bright and generally dry in a west to northwest wind of 10-20 mph, but some chance of a brief shower and possibly some steady light rain in Donegal spreading a bit further east later on. Highs 15-17 C north and warming to 17-19 C south.

SUNDAY ... sunny with cloudy intervals, any morning drizzle in the north should clear away gradually, and further south it will start off clear so that overnight lows in the rural parts there will be 4-7 C again, otherwise 8 to 10 C ... highs will be generally 17-19 C.

MONDAY ... sunny in most regions, after a cool start (lows 3-7 C) warming to about 20-21 C in very light winds.

TUESDAY ... hazy sunshine, a bit warmer, lows near 7 C and highs near 22 C.

The rest of the week will probably feature increasing cloud, some risk of showers especially west coast, and eventually moderate SE to S winds that could become strong at times towards the weekend.

There is some chance that the storm I've been mentioning near the Azores will push close enough on Thursday or so, to spread stronger winds and rain into the west (it will be heading north) ... then by about Saturday there is a risk that remnants of Danielle will arrive or at least track close enough to Connacht to have an impact on Ireland's weather.

Today (Thursday 26th) was mostly cloudy here but dry except for some brief showers this evening -- it has turned quite cool with a high of 21 C and now around 15 C. Gusty winds have brought some heavy non-severe storms to parts of Alberta, and a heat wave is spreading east across the northern U.S. to reach the east coast on the weekend. Danielle looks set to hit Bermuda on Sunday (possibly a glancing blow) then Earl will follow and could be on a track to deliver a stronger direct hit there. Some models have Earl crossing Newfoundland eventually. Following Earl is a developing tropical system that may become Fiona (if the Azores low doesn't grab that name first).

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 28 August, 2010
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TODAY ... northern counties will be cloudy with some light rain at times, clearing towards evening, highs near 15 C ... central and southern counties should be dry and at least partly sunny, with highs of 16-18 C. Winds will be moderate westerly at 10-20 mph.

TONIGHT ... clear intervals, chilly ... lows 3-7 C rural, 7-10 C coastal and larger cities.

SUNDAY ... partly cloudy, just a slight chance of isolated showers (still mostly in the north) with highs of 15-17 C, less breezy (W 5-15 mph).

MONDAY ... a chilly start under clear skies with fog patches, lows 2-6 C in rural areas, 6-9 C coastal and larger cities ... sunny and hazy during the day although visibility generally good, light east to southeast winds, highs 16 to 19 C (could hit 20 in some western coastal areas).

TUESDAY ... increasing cloud, but remaining dry with some sunshine, just a slight risk of showers in the far west by evening, highs near 22 C.

After this, I feel the pattern is a bit too unstable to get into a lot of detail ... most models are taking very strong hurricane Danielle rapidly east around Tuesday then swinging it well to the north around 20-25 W, towards Iceland, then looping the remnants back in the general direction of Ireland. Any slight changes in that complex scenario could produce some rapid changes in forecast, so I'll just say that the most likely pattern for Ireland Wednesday to Friday is cloudy with some sunny intervals and occasional showers mainly in the west, mild, highs 20-23 C.

At my location, the day started quite cool and showery, then turned sunny by afternoon, with a high of about 19 C. As I may not be around all day to update the long-range, I would suggest checking in on the discussion threads about Danielle and Earl to get more information on latest trends. Earl seems less likely to make it to the central or eastern Atlantic as it seems headed more for Newfoundland and then western Greenland in its dying phases.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 29 August, 2010
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TODAY will start out drizzly and cloudy, with improvements gradually setting in by mid-day ... by afternoon most places should be seeing some sunshine ... winds this morning will add a slight chill (veering W to NNW 10-15 mph) but should drop off to light northerly ... highs will be held down to about 15-16 C for most, possibly 17 C south coast.

TONIGHT will be quite chilly under clear skies with some cloudy intervals and fog patches. Rural lows could drop to 2-6 C, other places 6-8 C.

MONDAY will bring sunny intervals once the morning fog or low cloud breaks up, and highs will eventually reach 17-19 C in light northeast winds.

TUESDAY will also be sunny after a clear, cold start (with local fog quite widespread), and similar temperatures to Monday if perhaps a bit warmer in the afternoon (19-21 C possible). Winds will become more southeast remaining mostly under 10 m.p.h. (a bit breezier in Kerry).

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY currently appear pleasant with variable amounts of cloud in a warmer southeast flow of about 10-15 m.p.h., just the slight risk of showers near the west coast towards the end of the period, and highs in the range of 19-23 C while the overnight lows are not as chilly near 7 C. Morning fog patches will remain part of the scenario. Towards the following weekend, remnants of Danielle may loop around from the far northern Atlantic to bring a few showers, but at this point there are no indications of strong winds or significant rainfalls (the storm will first do a large loop around west of Iceland and south of Greenland).

Meanwhile, Earl seems likely to take a more westward track and skim past the U.S. east coast before slamming into Newfoundland. After that, a third storm appears to be forming and could get the name Fiona later today (the Azores storm, while fairly strong, seems to have no tropical characteristics). There are really no clear indications on where Fiona might head but speculation includes Florida or the Carolinas.

Today (Sat 28th) here was a really pleasant sunny day with a high of about 22 C and some minor towering cumulus blowing in from the northwest. The grass around here is still parched and although the province's fire situation is a lot better after scattered rain, the season is not quite over yet. Meanwhile, the hot weather we had a few days ago has now moved all the way east to the east coast where today's predicted highs are 32-35 C.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 30 August, 2010
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At 0600h Gurteen was reporting 1 deg C ... according to some of the weather forum cognoscenti, that may be close to a new all-time August record for Ireland ... it will all depend on the decimals in the final report.

TODAY ... after a very chilly start and some local fog near lakes and rivers (watch out if you're driving because it could be quite thick in a few spots) the day should warm nicely under strong sunshine, and highs will reach 17 to 19 C ... could feel quite warm because there won't be much if any breeze ... but some high cloud may dim the sun in places.

TONIGHT ... another clear, cold night likely, with similar lows of 2-6 C and the slight risk of ground frost in low-lying rural locations, dense fog near lakes and rivers (that moisture quickly saturates this very cool air) ... and calm under strong high pressure. A few more sheltered coastal and urban locations will only fall to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... sunny with some high cloud at times, light east to southeast winds, feeling pleasantly warm by late morning, highs 18-21 C.

WEDNESDAY ... partly cloudy, warmer especially the overnight lows due to more air movement and a bit of cloud, lows 5-10 C, then highs 18-22 C in light southeast winds.

THURSDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, slight risk of showers or drizzle near west coast, lows 8-12 C, highs 20-23 C. Winds SE 15-25 mph by afternoon.

FRIDAY ... cloudy with some sunny breaks mainly eastern counties, risk of showers developing in western counties by late in the day, winds SE 20-30 mph, lows 8-12 C and highs 20-23 C.

By the weekend, some rain may spread in from the looping remnants of Danielle, after the ex-hurricane makes a wide loop around the central Atlantic and drifts back towards Biscay or the Channel. The flow will remain southeast and rather warm with higher humidity, temperatures will be around 14 C at night and 21 C in the daytime (possibly a bit warmer).

Today (Sunday 29th) was a cloudy day here with the sun getting through at times, rather cool at 21 C. Highs were near 34 C on the east coast, meanwhile, Hurricane Earl is gradually intensifying near the island of Barbuda on its way past the Virgin Islands on Monday ... the track appears to be up the east coast of the U.S. just offshore, hitting some part of far eastern Canada around next weekend. The next tropical storm, which would become Fiona, is slow to develop fully but I think it will be named later today, or at least numbered (it will be T.D. #8).

Mothman

At 0600h Gurteen was reporting 1 deg C ... according to some of the weather forum cognoscenti, that may be close to a new all-time August record for Ireland ... it will all depend on the decimals in the final report.

Perhaps at synoptic stations, but I see mentioned here that The lowest August temperature in the Republic of Ireland is -2.7 deg. C. at Rathdrum, Co. Wicklow, on 30th August 1964

Rathdrum is a frost hollow and I can believe this to be true.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 31 August, 2010
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TODAY ... gradually warming up (the coldest readings this morning are in Leinster away from Dublin city and the coast) with sunshine filtered by high cloud at times ... light southeast winds ... highs generally 18-20 C (may reach 21 C inland west).

TONIGHT ... more cloud than recent nights, still some clear patches east, so that lows will range from 12 C west to 7 C east.

WEDNESDAY ... cloudy with a few sunny intervals, these more likely in Leinster and east Ulster ... some risk of drizzle or showers far west ... winds increasing to SE 20-30 mph at times, highs near 19 C but 21-22 C inland with some sunshine.

THURSDAY ... intervals of cloud and sunshine, winds SE 15-25 mph, slight risk of drizzle on west coast, lows 9-12 C, highs 18-22 C.

FRIDAY ... cloudy, chance of rain in western counties, winds SE 20-30 mph, warm and humid with lows 10-13 C, highs 18-23 C.

The weekend looks unsettled with some showers, mild although not overly warm, highs near 20 C.

Today (Monday 30th) here was sunny and about 20 C, with cloud spreading in this evening; rain is expected here by morning. Washington DC had a high of 36 C and NYC, Boston around 34 C. Hurricane Earl is a cat-4 monster now just far enough from Puerto Rico to avoid major problems there but some outlying parts of the Virgin Islands got a direct hit earlier ... the track appears to be close to Cape Hatteras but not inland, then close to Cape Cod and on into Nova Scotia and/or Newfoundland. Fiona has formed and there are no firm indications yet of any real strengthening as it trails along behind Earl. A new disturbance likely to become Gaston has appeared off west Africa tonight.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 1 September, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy in most regions, but hazy sunshine at times in the east and southeast ... light rain or drizzle in Connacht and west Kerry, amounts only about 1-2 mms ... highs near 18 C west, to 21 C southeast and 19 C in Ulster. Winds generally SSE 10-20 mph with gusts to 30 mph near coasts.

TONIGHT ... mostly cloudy and milder than recent nights (east certainly) with some drizzle in the west, lows 11-13 C.

THURSDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, not as much light rain or drizzle in the west, also a bit warmer again with highs 19-22 C. Winds SSE 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY ... cloudy west with light rain becoming moderate by evening, partly cloudy or sunny east, fairly warm too, with highs 19-23 C west to east. Winds SE 20-35 mph.

SATURDAY, SUNDAY ... rain gradually moving in from the west, but possibly staying dry much of the day Saturday in the east, humid and rather warm ... highs generally 20-23 C, lows around 14 C. Winds SE 20-30 mph. Some heavy showers may develop at times Saturday night and Sunday.

Early next week, showery and temperatures near 20 C.

Today (Tuesday 31st) here was extremely wet, the system acted more like a classic November rain event and dumped 75 mms on our local airport (I don't measure it here but it seemed less than that, maybe 50 mms). This is apparently the wettest August or July-August day ever recorded at the airport in 73 years. It also changed the summer rainfall from below to above normal but it will still be remembered as a dry summer by most.

With Earl winding up to make a run towards Nova Scotia this week, the east coast is currently sunny and very hot (daytimes) with highs each day near 36 in the region generally. Earl's path seems to be just far enough offshore to spare most of the U.S. east coast any major impacts but there will be some beach erosion and strong winds over outlying Cape Cod and the islands; then the storm will slam into Nova Scotia and could do some damage there although it will be rapidly dying out by Saturday night.

lucy2010

part of a large group climbing Lug on Sunday for the local cancer support. Any indication of weather thatmay force it to be cancelled ?


Thankss MT

M.T. Cranium

Keep your fingers crossed, the weather is likely to deteriorate on Sunday but I don't see anything quite bad enough for a cancellation, however I hope some of the more knowledgeable local weather folk will give you their views ... I will try for a more definitive forecast Thursday morning for your interest.

Lug is 3039ft above sea level.

If wind and rain come in on sunday it will be shrouded in cloud tops and fog which in my view would stop a climb like that one.
It's very exposed so would be miserable in heavy rain and frankly dangerous.