Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

lucy2010

Thanks BB & MT . yeah thats exactly what happened last year - fog i far too dangerous coming back down by Arts Lough . The year before was a very rare completely clear day you could see for miles.. Fingers crossed !

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 2 September, 2010
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TODAY will be hazy and at least partly sunny for most, with a bit of lingering low cloud and drizzle in western counties this morning clearing later, winds increasing a bit to SE 15-25 mph, and highs generally 18-20 C but could hit 22 C with long intervals of sunshine in counties like Carlow and Laois.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with fog patches, some isolated drizzle west, and winds SE 10-20 mph, lows 12-14 C.

FRIDAY will see gradually increasing cloud with hazy sun confined to the east by afternoon, winds SE 15-30 mph, drizzle or light rain moving back onto the west coast later in the day, highs ranging from 17 C west to 22 C east (inland as sea breezes Dublin-Wicklow will keep readings there near 19 C).

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy with rain slowly moving in from the west, remaining dry for parts of the east, winds SE 20-40 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY will remain dry for a while in the east but rain will be slowly spreading further east, becoming rather heavy in places, and winds will be strong SE in exposed locations (20-40 mph for most, 30-55 mph on higher slopes and in the west). For the Lug climb as requested, I still think the day in Wicklow would be marginal at best, rain moving in by about 2-3 pm, and windy, possibly strong gusts from SE at times, and with low cloud (might be okay for very early risers who can finish the climb before noon and start down quickly) ... sorry I can't say anything much better than that.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will be showery or even rainy with some heavy thundery downpours possible. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C. This rain is associated with Danielle's wandering remnants although I'm not sure if this will be the reported story on it, or not, since Danielle has broken up already and moisture from it has spread out towards Iceland mainly. This will reorganize and move southeast, merging with a regular frontal wave on the weekend.

I will be posting my updated ideas about Earl on the "Earl thread" here in a while (just got in) but I've been thinking all day here that it looks like it could give a nasty sideswipe to the east coast of the U.S. before rushing northeast into Canada. Then it should split into northward and eastward moving waves, and you could be seeing that eastward moving wave in Ireland by late in the week. Fiona is not a dead issue yet either and could limp along through the central Atlantic for a while in various forms. Gaston has formed too (getting dizzy now) and could be heading to Florida or even the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, our day here on Wednesday (1st) was sunny and pleasant once the morning low cloud departed, with highs near 20 C. It was 36 C in Washington DC and NYC in advance of the cloud from Earl.

More updates to follow, and I hope some of the other weather forum folk will give their ideas on the weekend, but it looks dry at first (east) then wet by the end. Would plan any optional activity for Saturday then.

lucy2010

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thursday, 2 September, 2010
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TODAY will be hazy and at least partly sunny for most, with a bit of lingering low cloud and drizzle in western counties this morning clearing later, winds increasing a bit to SE 15-25 mph, and highs generally 18-20 C but could hit 22 C with long intervals of sunshine in counties like Carlow and Laois.

TONIGHT will be partly cloudy and mild with fog patches, some isolated drizzle west, and winds SE 10-20 mph, lows 12-14 C.

FRIDAY will see gradually increasing cloud with hazy sun confined to the east by afternoon, winds SE 15-30 mph, drizzle or light rain moving back onto the west coast later in the day, highs ranging from 17 C west to 22 C east (inland as sea breezes Dublin-Wicklow will keep readings there near 19 C).

SATURDAY will be breezy to windy with rain slowly moving in from the west, remaining dry for parts of the east, winds SE 20-40 mph, lows near 12 C and highs near 20 C.

SUNDAY will remain dry for a while in the east but rain will be slowly spreading further east, becoming rather heavy in places, and winds will be strong SE in exposed locations (20-40 mph for most, 30-55 mph on higher slopes and in the west). For the Lug climb as requested, I still think the day in Wicklow would be marginal at best, rain moving in by about 2-3 pm, and windy, possibly strong gusts from SE at times, and with low cloud (might be okay for very early risers who can finish the climb before noon and start down quickly) ... sorry I can't say anything much better than that.

MONDAY-TUESDAY will be showery or even rainy with some heavy thundery downpours possible. Lows near 14 C and highs near 19 C. This rain is associated with Danielle's wandering remnants although I'm not sure if this will be the reported story on it, or not, since Danielle has broken up already and moisture from it has spread out towards Iceland mainly. This will reorganize and move southeast, merging with a regular frontal wave on the weekend.

I will be posting my updated ideas about Earl on the "Earl thread" here in a while (just got in) but I've been thinking all day here that it looks like it could give a nasty sideswipe to the east coast of the U.S. before rushing northeast into Canada. Then it should split into northward and eastward moving waves, and you could be seeing that eastward moving wave in Ireland by late in the week. Fiona is not a dead issue yet either and could limp along through the central Atlantic for a while in various forms. Gaston has formed too (getting dizzy now) and could be heading to Florida or even the Gulf of Mexico. Meanwhile, our day here on Wednesday (1st) was sunny and pleasant once the morning low cloud departed, with highs near 20 C. It was 36 C in Washington DC and NYC in advance of the cloud from Earl.

More updates to follow, and I hope some of the other weather forum folk will give their ideas on the weekend, but it looks dry at first (east) then wet by the end. Would plan any optional activity for Saturday then.

Thanks MT - Problem is its a charity event so we not setting off till 11 am - not expected back down till about 6 ish

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 3 September, 2010
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TODAY ... hazy sunshine with some intervals of thicker cloud mostly higher based (could be some interesting wave patterns for cloud photographs) with drizzle possible in western counties later on, but otherwise dry and quite warm again with highs 20-23 C. Winds SE 15-25 mph.

TONIGHT ... cloudy with clear breaks in the east, some lower cloud and drizzle west, lows 11-14 C, winds SE 10-20 mph.

SATURDAY ... cloudy with sunny intervals, some light rain at times moving gradually west to east and dissipating through the day, winds SE 15-30 mph, highs 19-22 C.

SUNDAY ... the day may start dry and even partly sunny in the east, while cloud and then rain spread into the west during the morning ... this rain, with strong SE winds and low cloud and hill fog, may reach the east early to mid afternoon ... conditions will deteriorate rapidly (thinking of the climbing forecast and also other events around the eastern counties) but the first half of the day may not be too bad ... lows generally 11-13 C and highs 17-20 C. Rainfalls of 10-20 mms likely (by midnight). Winds SE increasing to 25-45 mph with even higher gusts on higher terrain and near coasts (to 60 mph).

MONDAY-TUESDAY ... intervals of rain, possibly the occasional rumble of thunder, and cooler with winds less strong but generally SE becoming more westerly in the south as low pressure parks over south central Ireland. Rainfalls of 20-30 mms possible and temperatures stuck between 14 and 17 C most of the time.

Later in the week, slow improvements in a less moist easterly flow.

Today here was quite nice, sunny and 22 C. Hurricane Earl has swerved around Cape Hatteras and the rain and stronger winds have not made much of an impact further inland. The storm is heading back out to sea to take a run at Cape Cod and then Nova Scotia in the next 24-36 hours. Fiona is tagging along for the ride a bit further east. Gaston died prematurely but may come back to life (as a zombiecane?) and there's another one brewing too.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 4 September, 2010
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TODAY ... a line of showers, some rather heavy, will move steadily east through central and then eastern counties but mainly north of a line from about mid-Tipperary to north Wicklow, to the south of that the showers may be sporadic or even absent, except for some activity in Carlow and Wexford this morning ... while these showers may turn into longer periods of rain and give 3-5 mms locally, the day won't generally be a washout especially in the south and west, where cloud may break to allow some hazy sun again, with the winds remaining generally south to southeast at about 15-25 mph. Highs will reach 20 C in some places but it will be about 17 C in the rain. Rather misty or foggy near the south coast and on most higher terrain too.

TONIGHT ... extensive mist and fog developing, very mild, lows 12-14 C. ... light rain returning to the far west before sunrise.

SUNDAY ... rain will become heavier as the day progresses in western counties, but the eastern counties may have a dry start with some hazy sunshine to mid-day, before steady deterioration with lower cloud, stronger SE winds and eventually rain arriving (about 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. in coastal Leinster). Highs will be about 20 C before the rain arrives and temperatures will fall to 16 C in the rain, accompanied by SE winds 20-40 mph. Conditions over the nearby seas and on higher terrain will include stronger winds and temperatures near summits will be 12-13 C. While it does not look great by afternoon, the first part of the day may be tolerable for climbing or sailing activities. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms will be widespread by evening.

MONDAY, TUESDAY ... low cloud, periods of rain, heavy at times, foggy and bleak for a couple of days basically, temperatures in the narrow range of about 14-17 C, rainfalls of 30-40 mms possible. Winds ESE 15-30 mph falling off to light or variable at times in the south.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... gradually the low clouds will break to more variable skies with patchy light rain or showers, much lighter west winds will set in, and fog will be widespread at night. Highs near 18 C, lows near 12 C.

Meanwhile, today here (Friday 3rd) was partly cloudy and mild with highs of about 21 C. A front is approaching, and it will be cooler on the weekend with scattered showers and gusty NW winds. Earl has weakened already to a strong tropical storm and is on its way to a landfall in Nova Scotia later today (around mid-day local time). Fiona has also died off near Bermuda, and Gaston seems likely to return to life, while yet another storm is being touted near the Cape Verde region.

lucy2010

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Saturday, 4 September, 2010
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TODAY ... a line of showers, some rather heavy, will move steadily east through central and then eastern counties but mainly north of a line from about mid-Tipperary to north Wicklow, to the south of that the showers may be sporadic or even absent ... while these showers may turn into longer periods of rain and give 3-5 mms locally, the day won't generally be a washout especially in the south and west, where cloud may break to allow some hazy sun again, with the winds remaining generally south to southeast at about 15-25 mph. Highs will reach 20 C in some places but it will be about 17 C in the rain. Rather misty or foggy near the south coast and on most higher terrain too.

TONIGHT ... extensive mist and fog developing, very mild, lows 12-14 C. ... light rain returning to the far west before sunrise.

SUNDAY ... rain will become heavier as the day progresses in western counties, but the eastern counties may have a dry start with some hazy sunshine to mid-day, before steady deterioration with lower cloud, stronger SE winds and eventually rain arriving (about 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. in coastal Leinster). Highs will be about 20 C before the rain arrives and temperatures will fall to 16 C in the rain, accompanied by SE winds 20-40 mph. Conditions over the nearby seas and on higher terrain will include stronger winds and temperatures near summits will be 12-13 C. While it does not look great by afternoon, the first part of the day may be tolerable for climbing or sailing activities. Rainfalls of 10-15 mms will be widespread by evening.

MONDAY, TUESDAY ... low cloud, periods of rain, heavy at times, foggy and bleak for a couple of days basically, temperatures in the narrow range of about 14-17 C, rainfalls of 30-40 mms possible. Winds ESE 15-30 mph falling off to light or variable at times in the south.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... gradually the low clouds will break to more variable skies with patchy light rain or showers, much lighter west winds will set in, and fog will be widespread at night. Highs near 18 C, lows near 12 C.

Meanwhile, today here (Friday 3rd) was partly cloudy and mild with highs of about 21 C. A front is approaching, and it will be cooler on the weekend with scattered showers and gusty NW winds. Earl has weakened already to a strong tropical storm and is on its way to a landfall in Nova Scotia later today (around mid-day local time). Fiona has also died off near Bermuda, and Gaston seems likely to return to life, while yet another storm is being touted near the Cape Verde region.

Thanks MT

GSF

http://www.yr.no/place/Ireland/Dublin/Dublin/long.html

Yr.No is forecasting 37mm of rain for Monday :eek:

pauldry

www.yr.no are right!

Monday will be a sodden day. Hard to pinpoint where the highest totals will
fall but certainly totals of 30mm cannot be ruled out and 50mm could happen in one or two places. One of those "wettest day of the month" could happen:( IMO

fishmahboi

They are forecast 32mm now

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Saturday, 7:45 p.m.
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I'm certainly in general agreement on the potential for late Sunday through Monday. That system continues on the same timetable on the latest guidance and the update is more for the short term ... a rather narrow band of showers that could contain some thunder at times will work its way east from the central counties this evening and overnight, eventually settling over the east and northeast somewhat after midnight. This may just dissipate later tonight or fire up occasionally towards dawn so that not all eastern locations will be dry all morning, but it may not amount to very much except for one or two spots later this evening possibly around Westmeath if there happen to be some thundershowers in this line. So for Sunday in the east, I would expect any of this lingering rain or drizzle to give way to some mid-day brighter intervals, possibly an hour or two of sunshine, then the cloud and stronger winds from the western system would encroach later afternoon.

Meanwhile, having a cloudy and quite breezy day here, 18 C, while on the east coast of Canada, Halifax has had some tree damage from 70 mph wind gusts thanks to Earl, now downgraded to a tropical storm and located at present near eastern Prince Edward Island (our smallest province, it's about the size of the larger Irish counties).

La Madame

Saturday here in SW Ireland was a splendid day! We had the sun loungers out and enjoyed a nearly hot day which reminded me of my far away home.

This summer was very agreeable compared to the last 3 summers.
The weather here in IRL is subjectively very miserable most of the time but this summer can be called a summer.

fishmahboi

Lol maybe we can call this autunm autunm XD

M.T. Cranium

Well it's only weather people who insist on calling summer June, July and August. The season is actually something like June 22md to September 21st, especially for a maritime climate where the ocean is slow to reach its annual peak. I think in San Francisco, they figure on summer being late July to early October, that's how big the lag of the seasons is when you have very cool water nearby, as they often do.

In a continental climate, according to my research, the seasons would be best divided about mid-month, like summer would be mid-June to mid-September. Around where I live now, we figure summer to be divided into three parts, an early, wet cool and cloudy part from June to mid-July, a hot, dry sunny part from mid-July to mid-August, then a more variable part with more frequent showers from mid-August to the end of September. The real autumn weather around here is often delayed to early October, and autumn here is the rainy season. That goes on to about Christmas or so, then we get a sort of brief winter transitional season with a few cold days and snow mixed with milder rainy days. That lasts to about late January, then February and March here are often quite spring-like, in fact some years the whole year feels like spring here, the seasonal effects here are very blurred by the mild Pacific Ocean (it's relatively mild here and cold down further south because of the Humboldt Current).

I feel certain that for whatever reason, your climate in Ireland is more variable than ours on the British Columbia coast, we do have variations year to year (especially winter) but some of the features are almost reliable enough to be monsoonal, like the spring rains, the mid-summer drought and the fall rains, they always seem to happen to some degree every year.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 5 September, 2010
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TODAY ... cloudy but dry at first, with some hazy sunshine at times in eastern counties ... rain sweeping into the western counties about 10 a.m. to noon, then on through central Ireland around 2-4 p.m. and into the east late afternoon. The rain will be accompanied by low cloud and strong SE winds 25-40 mph. Rather warm before the rain, highs 18-21 C, then about 15 or 16 in the rain.

I will try to update the timing for those interested in the onset of rain in Leinster, as this is the most uncertain part of the forecast. Conditions will tend to deteriorate rapidly when the rain arrives especially on higher terrain due to the very strong winds that could reach 55-70 mph on summits, also low cloud creating fog on higher slopes.

TONIGHT ... heavy, thundery rain continuing with accumulations reaching about 20 mms before morning, lows 12-14 C, winds SE 20-35 mph, very foggy in coastal and higher terrain.

MONDAY ... heavy thundery rain continuing, amounts could be heavy or even excessive, on top of the overnight 20 mms another 20-30 mms possible. Highs reaching only 16 C with winds ESE 20-40 mph (possibly stronger near south coast) ... heaviest rains likely in the southeast to central counties, but quite widespread across Ireland.

TUESDAY ... further heavy showers, cool and breezy especially Ulster, where continuing E 20-40 mph, but dropping off to lighter westerly winds in the south, rain turning to drizzle then, and foggy, highs near 16 C.

WEDNESDAY to FRIDAY ... continuing unsettled, frequent showers in a moderate westerly backing to SSW on Friday, more heavy rain possible then, temperatures in the 17-18 C range by day, overnight lows near 12 C.

The further outlook is a bit less unsettled but with frequent frontal waves in a rather fast westerly flow.

The Friday system is partly an offshoot of Earl which has recently split into two systems, one heading your way and one heading north. The four eastern provinces of Canada had a very windy and wet day with Halifax seeing some wind damage from 75 mph gusts earlier. It has been about average for early September across much of the continent here and we had a cool, breezy day with some sun and a high of 18 C.

Watch for updates on timing of the rain which is now just off the southwest coast around 12 to 15 degrees W heading in towards Kerry. For that Lug climb, at the moment it is a difficult call given the timing, you might have a reasonable climb up and find conditions closing in rapidly at the summit, then have to come down in fog and driving rain. It all depends on the combination of your speed and the weather system's speed. By about 6 p.m. the only good place to be would be inside having a hot drink.

km79

anything to update MTC?

dacogawa

This is heading north at the moment



and from the look of this there is lots more on the way

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Sunday, 11:45 p.m.
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Sorry this is a bit late to catch many users still up, but I've been out most of the day here. No real update to the forecast but certainly a confirmation that very heavy rain is moving up from the south and should give a steady downpour to much of the southeast, tilting back towards central counties as the flow with this is SSE'ly. Rainfall amounts now to midnight Monday could be in the range of 30-50 mms locally in Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Laois, Tipps, Kilkenny, Kildare and Dublin counties with an orographic maximum likely on the east slopes of the mountains so flash flooding of streams and rivers rising in that region could become an issue later Monday. Rainfalls in other parts of Ireland will probably be in the range of 10 to 20 mms in Munster trending up to 30 mms in Waterford; 20-40 mms in Connacht, and 15-30 mms in Ulster. This would be in addition to what's already fallen today.

Some thundery showers appear embedded in this rain and I'll be watching closely for any readers who might be up very late (or very early) for any discussions of thunderstorm activity but that would also be more likely on the east slopes of the mountains and into Dublin city. So, with all this, a steady SE wind of about 25-35 mph (but likely more like 40-60 on the summits, not that anyone would be there now). Winds further west like in Cork and Kerry will be more moderate, SSW 10-20 mph. During the day tomorrow with some breaks in the overcast there, it's likely to become rather unstable across inland Munster and this may lead to meso-scale banding of thundershowers that might provide some interesting cloud photography in that part of Ireland.

fishmahboi

I am very concerned about the rainfall you are talking about mtc is ther anything optimistic you can say about the southeast?

M.T. Cranium

Yes, the people and scenery are very nice and once this stops it will be a lovely place to visit. I'm just talking about the risk potential here, doesn't mean every river or stream will flood, but one or two might so be prepared, that sort of thing.

Joe Public

It'll be Tippn down in Kilkenny tonight - sorry, couldn't resist!

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 6 September, 2010
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TODAY ... periods of heavy, thundery rain continuing in many parts, although more isolated showers for the southwest, some of those becoming thundery ... strong SE winds (25-45 mph at times) to the north and east of a front slowly moving through central counties, light to moderate SW to W winds to the west ... an additional rainfall of 20-30 mms possible (10-15 in southwest) ... flooding of small streams and low-lying urban areas quite possible already given the 30 mms on average already fallen ... feeling rather warm and humid with highs 17-18 C.

TONIGHT ... becoming foggy (some dense fog in places), showery, with the heavier rainfall mostly confined to Ulster, but possible brief heavy downpours elsewhere, about 5-8 mms of additional rainfall and winds only strong in parts of Ulster (still SE 20-30 mph there) while becoming light westerly elsewhere ... lows 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... showers, a few heavier thundershowers, local hail possible, foggy at times with highs 16-18 C (14-16 C Ulster) ... a further 10 mms of rain likely.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will be partly cloudy, showery days with the risk of some locally heavy downpours. Rainfalls will probably be less than 5 mms in most places but could be as much as 10-15 in a few. Temperatures will stay a little cooler with lows 8-11 C and highs 14-16 C.

FRIDAY may bring yet another interval of heavy rain with gusty south to southwest winds developing, and highs near 17 C. This should become more showery by Saturday in a slowly clearing westerly airflow, and then several days of showery weather may follow that ...

Sunday here was cloudy with a high of about 18 C, some light rain has been falling here this evening. Gaston is showing signs of coming back to life in the Caribbean, and a new tropical storm is forming in the Gulf of Mexico; this one won't last very long before drifting over land in south Texas.

Watch for updates and please post your weather and if relevant flooding observations on the threads for weather and heavy rain discussions. I may update this if I can stay awake (sleep defecit after the Earl marathon).

fishmahboi

Regarding the showers on tuesday are they meant to spread across the country during the afternoon?

M.T. Cranium

UPDATE _ Monday, 8:00 p.m.
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This very wet frontal system continues to edge very slowly north across eastern Ireland. A few moderate to heavy thundershowers have developed in the wake of the front around Tipps. In both cases, the activity will continue to pulse and drift slowly northeast with further heavy showers possible in areas currently dry, the overall reason being a gradual drop in temperatures and "heights" in the upper atmosphere which are combining to wring out all the available moisture and keep the westerly flow unstable in the Atlantic air mass moving in slowly behind the front.

Unfortunately, then, expect a further 10-20 mms of rain in many areas tonight, with local 30 mm accumulations possible.

Tomorrow, the steady rain should be mostly confined to Ulster, but the rest of the country will be subject to the widely scattered showers -- while these will come and go in many areas, the heaviest of them would likely be from about eastern Galway through Offaly, Westmeath, Laois, Kilkenny, Carlow and western parts of Kildare, Wicklow, into north Wexford. These are places that might see similar heavy thunderstorm activity to what was reported in Tipps earlier today.

The further outlook remains unsettled as per the main forecast above. Another downpour on Friday seems quite likely.

If it's any consolation, it is raining cats and dogs here too.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

UPDATE _ Monday, 8:00 p.m.
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This very wet frontal system continues to edge very slowly north across eastern Ireland. A few moderate to heavy thundershowers have developed in the wake of the front around Tipps. In both cases, the activity will continue to pulse and drift slowly northeast with further heavy showers possible in areas currently dry, the overall reason being a gradual drop in temperatures and "heights" in the upper atmosphere which are combining to wring out all the available moisture and keep the westerly flow unstable in the Atlantic air mass moving in slowly behind the front.

Unfortunately, then, expect a further 10-20 mms of rain in many areas tonight, with local 30 mm accumulations possible.

Tomorrow, the steady rain should be mostly confined to Ulster, but the rest of the country will be subject to the widely scattered showers -- while these will come and go in many areas, the heaviest of them would likely be from about eastern Galway through Offaly, Westmeath, Laois, Kilkenny, Carlow and western parts of Kildare, Wicklow, into north Wexford. These are places that might see similar heavy thunderstorm activity to what was reported in Tipps earlier today.

The further outlook remains unsettled as per the main forecast above. Another downpour on Friday seems quite likely.

If it's any consolation, it is raining cats and dogs here too.

Any chances of flooding in areas with the heavy showers?

M.T. Cranium

I would expect so, but I tend to leave flooding forecasts and warnings to the relevant authorities in Ireland, as I have very little data beyond the weather data available to me to make such forecasts. There's plenty of reports on the other threads that mention flooding problems -- usually whenever there is 50 mms or more within 24 hours, there is almost bound to be some flooding because the drainage systems and urban engineering are based on about that as a maximum load, so usually rainfalls greater than 50 mms will create flooding problems -- depends on the drainage area, some rivers can handle more like a 75 mm rainfall (thinking more widely than just Ireland here) but it's rare to have 75-100 mms rain over any significant area without flooding unless it's some tropical environment with deep river gullies. The point now is that even relatively small rainfalls have nowhere to run off as streams rise and low areas flood.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would expect so, but I tend to leave flooding forecasts and warnings to the relevant authorities in Ireland, as I have very little data beyond the weather data available to me to make such forecasts. There's plenty of reports on the other threads that mention flooding problems -- usually whenever there is 50 mms or more within 24 hours, there is almost bound to be some flooding because the drainage systems and urban engineering are based on about that as a maximum load, so usually rainfalls greater than 50 mms will create flooding problems -- depends on the drainage area, some rivers can handle more like a 75 mm rainfall (thinking more widely than just Ireland here) but it's rare to have 75-100 mms rain over any significant area without flooding unless it's some tropical environment with deep river gullies. The point now is that even relatively small rainfalls have nowhere to run off as streams rise and low areas flood.

Ok thanks and I just checked the 3 hour forecast on met eireann and it looks like there may be a change in the direction of the showers from northeast to west

M.T. Cranium

Yes if you're near the frontal zone which runs about from Donegal to Dublin now, that front is edging north, the wind ahead of it remains E to SE although it has dropped off considerably from the gales that were blowing earlier; meanwhile the rest of the country is in more of a light westerly flow pushing that front along very slowly, so people are getting a windshift when this front moves past. However, the pressure gradient is light and winds are not that strong, so fog is quite likely to thicken and become extensive inland tonight, the air mass is clearly saturated and as it drops a degree or two that just creates fog like when you open your bathroom door with a shower or bath running, same process at work. Anyone with a plan to drive anywhere tonight or early tomorrow should expect some slow going on the roads with the fog and some local flooding. Danno in Laois reported 120 mms of rain at his location from this storm (so far) and there are many other reports of 50-75 mms across the central and southeast counties as well as Galway and Mayo, which gives an idea of how much standing water there could be on some roads in those counties tonight or tomorrow.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Yes if you're near the frontal zone which runs about from Donegal to Dublin now, that front is edging north, the wind ahead of it remains E to SE although it has dropped off considerably from the gales that were blowing earlier; meanwhile the rest of the country is in more of a light westerly flow pushing that front along very slowly, so people are getting a windshift when this front moves past. However, the pressure gradient is light and winds are not that strong, so fog is quite likely to thicken and become extensive inland tonight, the air mass is clearly saturated and as it drops a degree or two that just creates fog like when you open your bathroom door with a shower or bath running, same process at work. Anyone with a plan to drive anywhere tonight or early tomorrow should expect some slow going on the roads with the fog and some local flooding. Danno in Laois reported 120 mms of rain at his location from this storm (so far) and there are many other reports of 50-75 mms across the central and southeast counties as well as Galway and Mayo, which gives an idea of how much standing water there could be on some roads in those counties tonight or tomorrow.

50-70 mm? the rain didn't seem that bad on my end and it only became slightly thundery at one point at 3:00 pm
Hmm must have been the duration of the rainfall

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for adding your location. No, you probably didn't see that much, from other reports on the forum and radar-watching I would estimate 10-20 mms at your location. The heaviest rain fell from Wexford to Mayo in a diagonal zone (as we were forecasting) and there was quite a bit less in some parts of west Munster, the Leinster coast and Ulster (north especially) ... Killowen which I see is in Co. Down in NI had 84 mms as well (max rainfall Monday in the U.K. on metoffice site).

Valentia and Belmullet, normally two of the wetter places in Ireland, had about the lowest totals so far from this, I gather. The source of the moisture was certainly subtropical. Former hurricane Danielle had some role to play in it by dumping it in the central Atlantic for this frontal system to use. The circulation from Danielle then moved up towards Iceland and dissipated, a frontal wave formed in the mess left behind and picked up all this cloud and moisture, and brought it northeast through Biscay (where seas are quite warm, 18-20 C) past Cornwall and directly into Ireland. So in a way you can blame Danielle but it's not like a direct hit with Charley or other historical events.

fishmahboi

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Thanks for adding your location. No, you probably didn't see that much, from other reports on the forum and radar-watching I would estimate 10-20 mms at your location. The heaviest rain fell from Wexford to Mayo in a diagonal zone (as we were forecasting) and there was quite a bit less in some parts of west Munster, the Leinster coast and Ulster (north especially) ... Killowen which I see is in Co. Down in NI had 84 mms as well (max rainfall Monday in the U.K. on metoffice site).

Valentia and Belmullet, normally two of the wetter places in Ireland, had about the lowest totals so far from this, I gather. The source of the moisture was certainly subtropical. Former hurricane Danielle had some role to play in it by dumping it in the central Atlantic for this frontal system to use. The circulation from Danielle then moved up towards Iceland and dissipated, a frontal wave formed in the mess left behind and picked up all this cloud and moisture, and brought it northeast through Biscay (where seas are quite warm, 18-20 C) past Cornwall and directly into Ireland. So in a way you can blame Danielle but it's not like a direct hit with Charley or other historical events.

What is the outlook for tomarrow anyways because from alot of weather forecasts its looking quite bad