Dublin Bay South By-Election

L1011 · 19-06-2021 3:19pm

Not going to comment on Lacey's politics specifically - but plenty of older left-wing people are extremely anti-SF.

Blut2 · 19-06-2021 3:27pm

I don't think its accurate to say Labour aren't a left-wing party. A lot of their party platform policies are still very much left-wing. But it is accurate to say they're no longer a working class party. Look at the demographic breakdown of the most recent Irish Times poll from this week:

It really shows how Labour and the Greens both get their support predominantly from the well off. So its not a huge surprise that the votes of both parties are very transfer friendly to FG.

Brussels Sprout · 19-06-2021 4:51pm

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Well in DBS in 2020

Argh. I searched about 6 or 7 constituencies in that election looking for this exact scenario and I never thought to look at DBS itself. Thanks for that

Blut2 wrote: »

I don't think its accurate to say Labour aren't a left-wing party. A lot of their party platform policies are still very much left-wing. But it is accurate to say they're no longer a working class party.

Nail on the head. In the old 2.5 party days Labour and FF got the working class vote between them. Nowadays that predominantly goes to SF and the likes of Solidarity/PBP/I4C. Labour shifted to more of a youth & middle class public sector worker party during the Cletic tiger and the immediate aftermath of the crash but their spell in the austerity government of 2011-2016 torpedoed them with those demographics.

In a way they're in a similar position to FF, in that they're having a bit of an identity crisis. Why should someone vote for Labour when there is likely to be another party that that already covers the area that you are looking for. I think that all of their current TDs got elected more on a personal vote rather then that they were representing Labour.

breezy1985 · 19-06-2021 5:06pm

Blut2 wrote: »

I don't think its accurate to say Labour aren't a left-wing party. A lot of their party platform policies are still very much left-wing. But it is accurate to say they're no longer a working class party. Look at the demographic breakdown of the most recent Irish Times poll from this week:

It really shows how Labour and the Greens both get their support predominantly from the well off. So its not a huge surprise that the votes of both parties are very transfer friendly to FG.

Well what it actually shows is that labour are pretty even across all the groups except farmers. This was always the case where Labour were the alternative to FF/FG vote in the cities but couldnt scratch the rural areas. Certainly in my personal experience they were always left and urban but not huge in the working class council estates.
They have certainly lost a fair whack of the youth vote to SF though

Amirani · 19-06-2021 6:34pm

L1011 wrote: »

Not going to comment on Lacey's politics specifically - but plenty of older left-wing people are extremely anti-SF.

Yeah, you can clearly be left wing and anti-SF.

UDAWINNER · 19-06-2021 6:37pm

Anyone who claims RTE are not biased against SF, take a look
https://twitter.com/BTriagain/status/1406173917300019206

Cannot imagine doing the same with a SF candidate

breezy1985 · 19-06-2021 6:39pm

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Anyone who claims RTE are not biased against SF, take a look
https://twitter.com/BTriagain/status/1406173917300019206

Cannot imagine doing the same with a SF candidate

Loads of parties in this election but you see this as a direct attack on SF

Larbre34 · 19-06-2021 6:44pm

1) that's a parody twitter account
2) Tubridy is a constituent, who they meet on the doorsteps is random and besides
3) Tubridy is not an RTÉ employee, he's a contractor, he can do more or less whatever he likes short of broadcasting for an RTÉ competitor. And besides besides,
4) Tubridy is a member of one of the oldest Fianna Fáil dynasties in history.

AndrewJRenko · 19-06-2021 6:53pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

2) Tubridy is a constituent, who they meet on the doorsteps is random and besides

Are you sure? I thought he lived in Monkstown? I've seen him on foot a few times around Monkstown and Dun Laoghaire.

Larbre34 wrote: »

3) Tubridy is not an RTÉ employee, he's a contractor, he can do more or less whatever he likes short of broadcasting for an RTÉ competitor. And besides besides,

I'd bet that the same code applies to contractors as employees, that they can't be active politically.

golfball37 · 19-06-2021 6:58pm

Tubridys first cousin is a current sitting td in the constituency. Spinning this as evidence of RTÉ being anti sf actually demeans any valid argument of that existing

golfball37 · 19-06-2021 6:59pm

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Anyone who claims RTE are not biased against SF, take a look
https://twitter.com/BTriagain/status/1406173917300019206

Cannot imagine doing the same with a SF candidate

The current sf td for the constituency is his first cousin. I’m sure they’ve stood in a photo together

Larbre34 · 19-06-2021 7:00pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

Are you sure? I thought he lived in Monkstown? I've seen him on foot a few times around Monkstown and Dun Laoghaire.

I'd bet that the same code applies to contractors as employees, that they can't be active politically.

Not any more.

Would you call that being politically active?

expectationlost · 19-06-2021 7:03pm

now Dolores Cahill says she's running in DBS, how selfish is Eoghan Murphy to create this opportunity for these people to get coverage, if he didn't want to be a TD he should not have run in 2019.

Rjd2 · 19-06-2021 7:03pm

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Well in DBS in 2020, only the Green candidate, Eamon Ryan, had been elected. Humphrey's (Labour) elimination elected SF, FG and FF

3,916 of Labour votes transferred as follows:
SF: 24.5%
FG (Murphy): 21.3%
FF: 25%
FG (O'Connell): 29.2%

The dynamics are all different, less than 1.5 years later, but I still think that trend will be roughly maintained.

So 50% of Labour votes transferred to the FG candidates, in a nationwide disaster for FG. I don't have other data to hand, but this seems to be an ongoing phenomenon, and really pulls the rug from under any idea that Labour is a left-wing party. Local party organisation, eg councillors like Dermot Lacey, are almost obsessively anti-SF.

I can see Labour transferring well to FG again, and to the greens, but the latter are only in with a small chance it seems.

That's an interesting post.

I think their is a relatively lazy section of the public who assume all left wing transfers go to left and right right etc.

However I could find people on my phone contact list who would swear FG is left /right and Labour left/right! Its nothing like the Republicans v Dems over here.

Their is plenty of people who would call themselves left who would loath SF while I have seen some of the harshest criticism of the greens come from SF supporters who I think coined the term "FG on bicycles" .

UDAWINNER · 19-06-2021 7:06pm

golfball37 wrote: »

Tubridys first cousin is a current sitting td in the constituency. Spinning this as evidence of RTÉ being anti sf actually demeans any valid argument of that existing

Yet he's posing with the FG candidate, besides who his cousin is does not mean that RTE are not biased. Watch any interview with TUBS, MOC and see the difference in their approach to other reps that are not in SF. Only a few months, RTE had to apologise to paschal for bringing up a shoe tax which was brought in when was child, how often do they bring up IRA attacks to SF reps who were either not born or children at the time.
Lets not forget RTE for cutting off Joe Brolly because the DUP were not there to represent themselves, how often do allow any FFG rep have a go at SF, don't remember them being cut off

Bubbaclaus · 19-06-2021 7:08pm

Well this thread is taking a pretty embarrassing turn.

Annasopra · 19-06-2021 7:56pm

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Yet he's posing with the FF candidate, besides who his cousin is does not mean that RTE are not biased. Watch any interview with TUBS, MOC and see the difference in their approach to other reps that are not in SF. Only a few months, RTE had to apologise to paschal for bringing up a shoe tax which was brought in when was child, how often do they bring up IRA attacks to SF reps who were either not born or children at the time.
Lets not forget RTE for cutting off Joe Brolly because the DUP were not there to represent themselves, how often do allow any FFG rep have a go at SF, don't remember them being cut off

No. Hes not posing with the FF candidate.

Annasopra · 19-06-2021 7:58pm

expectationlost wrote: »

now Dolores Cahill says she's running in DBS, how selfish is Eoghan Murphy to create this opportunity for these people to get coverage, if he didn't want to be a TD he should not have run in 2019.

So DBS will get 5 Far right candidates. Gonna be a joke when they split the fascist vote between them.

breezy1985 · 19-06-2021 8:30pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

That's an interesting post.

I think their is a relatively lazy section of the public who assume all left wing transfers go to left and right right etc.

However I could find people on my phone contact list who would swear FG is left /right and Labour left/right! Its nothing like the Republicans v Dems over here.

Their is plenty of people who would call themselves left who would loath SF while I have seen some of the harshest criticism of the greens come from SF supporters who I think coined the term "FG on bicycles" .

The Greens are definitely not left wing. Some people think they are because they share some socially liberal policies but they are not left wing. I have voted 1.Labour 2.Green in the past and would not consider that a left/left transfer

AndrewJRenko · 19-06-2021 8:49pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

Not any more.

Would you call that being politically active?

When did he move? I've seen him several times on early morning walks around DO in the past three months.

I certainly wouldn't call it being politically neutral.

expectationlost · 19-06-2021 8:59pm

Annasopra wrote: »

So DBS will get 5 Far right candidates. Gonna be a joke when they split the fascist vote between them.

its the not small amount of votes that bothers me about what Murphy did its the free coverage they'll get

Larbre34 · 19-06-2021 9:07pm

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

When did he move? I've seen him several times on early morning walks around DO in the past three months.

I certainly wouldn't call it being politically neutral.

It's not politically anything actually. In any case, I'm sure absolutely nobody gives a monkeys, and if the Paddy Cosgrave's of this World are looking to things like that to bring FG people down, they are decidedly more desperate than even I believed.

Marcusm · 19-06-2021 10:09pm

UDAWINNER wrote: »

Anyone who claims RTE are not biased against SF, take a look
https://twitter.com/BTriagain/status/1406173917300019206

Cannot imagine doing the same with a SF candidate

The funny thing is that Tubridy is the first cousin of Chris Andrews, the sitting SF TD in Dublin Bay South!

Brussels Sprout · 20-06-2021 11:08am

expectationlost wrote: »

now Dolores Cahill says she's running in DBS, how selfish is Eoghan Murphy to create this opportunity for these people to get coverage, if he didn't want to be a TD he should not have run in 2019.

that's certainly a unique take, I'll give you that

AndrewJRenko · 20-06-2021 12:34pm

Larbre34 wrote: »

It's not politically anything actually. In any case, I'm sure absolutely nobody gives a monkeys, and if the Paddy Cosgrave's of this World are looking to things like that to bring FG people down, they are decidedly more desperate than even I believed.

It is a political opportunity for the FGer, who didn't do anything wrong, to be fair. The fault lies with Tubridy, who knows well the obligation for media to be balanced. He really shouldn't be posing for a photo that he knows will be used for political purposes.

retalivity · 20-06-2021 1:00pm

Geoghan and his lackies out in force in Terenure this morning, passed by them on the bike on my way back.
A lot of young people out canvassing for him which I found a but strange...didnt think that is his demographic at all.

Annasopra · 20-06-2021 1:09pm

retalivity wrote: »

Geoghan and his lackies out in force in Terenure this morning, passed by them on the bike on my way back.
A lot of young people out canvassing for him which I found a but strange...didnt think that is his demographic at all.

They are trying to stop the youth vote all going SF. There is also a big YFG group too.

20-06-2021 7:52pm

retalivity wrote: »

Geoghan and his lackies out in force in Terenure this morning, passed by them on the bike on my way back.
A lot of young people out canvassing for him which I found a but strange...didnt think that is his demographic at all.

Fine Gael were in crisis when I was leaving school, this was back in the mid-00's, and at that time there was a sudden bombardment of the Irish university campuses with YFG recruitment. I think Varadkar may have had something to do with it at the time. To give them their credit, it was extremely forward-thinking at the time, and they've kept it up.

SF has possibly overtaken them, but for many years they had the biggest youth membership among any of the political parties.

They branded themselves very smartly to attract a certain type of student. I even remember a badge that said "Irish Tories", which believe it or not was assumed to be a good thing.

Fifteen years later, that's reaped a certain class (I use that word deliberately) of young-ish FG TDs, Varadkar's famous choirboys, and they will probably define the party's future. It was remarkably well done, for a party that at the time was sometimes written-off.

Annasopra · 20-06-2021 7:55pm

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Fine Gael were in crisis when I was leaving school, this was back in the mid-00's, and at that time there was a sudden bombardment of the Irish university campuses with YFG recruitment. I think Varadkar may have had something to do with it at the time. To give them their credit, it was extremely forward-thinking at the time, and they've kept it up.

SF has possibly overtaken them, but for many years they had the biggest youth membership among any of the political parties.

They branded themselves very smartly to attract a certain type of student. I even remember a badge that said "Irish Tories", which believe it or not was assumed to be a good thing.

Fifteen years later, that's reaped a certain class (I use that word deliberately) of young-ish FG TDs, and will probably define the party's future. It was remarkably well done, for a party that at the time was sometimes written-off.

It was Enda Kenny. He completely revitalised the party - bringing in the likes of Simon Harris (who was in FF around 2000-2003) and many other young people at the time.

breezy1985 · 20-06-2021 8:10pm

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Fine Gael were in crisis when I was leaving school, this was back in the mid-00's, and at that time there was a sudden bombardment of the Irish university campuses with YFG recruitment. I think Varadkar may have had something to do with it at the time. To give them their credit, it was extremely forward-thinking at the time, and they've kept it up.

SF has possibly overtaken them, but for many years they had the biggest youth membership among any of the political parties.

They branded themselves very smartly to attract a certain type of student. I even remember a badge that said "Irish Tories", which believe it or not was assumed to be a good thing.

Fifteen years later, that's reaped a certain class (I use that word deliberately) of young-ish FG TDs, Varadkar's famous choirboys, and they will probably define the party's future. It was remarkably well done, for a party that at the time was sometimes written-off.

A lot of that makes sense to a generation of politically minded people who saw FF and Blair's labour as being as bad as things could get and we're probably too young to ever remember a Tory or FG government.

I saw FG as not the party for me but not pure evil like Bertie and was pretty impressed by early days Varadkar until he came out as a massive fan of the USAs republican party in a show about the McCain v Obama election

Dublin Bay South By-Election

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