Dublin Bay South By-Election

Larbre34

Really terrible stuff from Claire Byrne (GP) on the IT today

"She also emphasised that Dublin Bay South currently is without a female representative, arguing: “I really believe only women can represent women effectively. We need to look at recognising a woman’s work in the home properly, financially and otherwise.”"

Dempo1

I think Leo loosing the plot, From pronouncements on a united Ireland ( never seemed to care till recently ), 40k homes a year ( since when did FG give a damn about home ownership, O yes, when they brought in property Tax, silly me ), and then today announcing the Pandemic is over during a very tetchy interview on the week in politics. Perhaps this by-election getting to him or could it be the Polls? Something certainly seems to be very distracting him.

Strumms

Larbre34 wrote: »

Really terrible stuff from Claire Byrne (GP) on the IT today

"She also emphasised that Dublin Bay South currently is without a female representative, arguing: “I really believe only women can represent women effectively. We need to look at recognising a woman’s work in the home properly, financially and otherwise.”"

I’d just stop listening to her after saying that...

So no other male elected representatives in the history of this state have represented women effectively?

The leader of the Green Party Eamonn Ryan, doesn’t represent women effectively ? He was stood beside you less then 24 hours ago, helping launch your campaign!... 10/12 Green Party TD’s are not representing women effectively ?

If you are elected your job is to represent and work for the people of your constituency... equally regardless or their gender, age, occupation, wealth or otherwise... Jesus..

Brussels Sprout

Dempo1 wrote: »

I think Leo loosing the plot, From pronouncements on a united Ireland ( never seemed to care till recently ), 40k homes a year ( since when did FG give a damn about home ownership, O yes, when they brought in property Tax, silly me ), and then today announcing the Pandemic is over during a very tetchy interview on the week in politics. Perhaps this by-election getting to him or could it be the Polls? Something certainly seems to be very distracting him.

It's absolutely a knee-jerk reaction to SF showing a big lead in two separate polls last week. He probably had an emergency session with the top brains in the party:

"Why are SF doing so well in the polls?"
"What are their main policies?"
"Building more houses and Reunification?"
"Right, let's jump on those then"

Honestly they could just ignore the Reunification bit because that's not a high priority for many voters.

Literally all FG (or FF for that matter) have to do is stop trying to solve the housing crisis with demand-side solutions. They just cannot seem to do it though.

AndrewJRenko

Strumms wrote: »

If you are elected your job is to represent and work for the people of your constituency... equally regardless or their gender, age, occupation, wealth or otherwise... Jesus..

She didn't say anything that contradicts this, from my memory of the interview.

Sam Russell

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's absolutely a knee-jerk reaction to SF showing a big lead in two separate polls last week. He probably had an emergency session with the top brains in the party:

"Why are SF doing so well in the polls?"
"What are their main policies?"
"Building more houses and Reunification?"
"Right, let's jump on those then"

Honestly they could just ignore the Reunification bit because that's not a high priority for many voters.

Literally all FG (or FF for that matter) have to do is stop trying to solve the housing crisis with demand-side solutions. They just cannot seem to do it though.

My memory of Leo is his railing against SF usurping the Irish tricolour. He has tried to reclaim Irish Nationalism as a major ideal for FG, and not abandon it to FF and SF.

Now it is a bit rich for FG to be claiming the high ground re housing. The DBS bi-election is called because the FG TD responsible for housing policy failed so spectacularly that he has resigned in embarrassment mid term.

Even the Irish Glass bottle site, in his own constituency, could not be pressed into building the odd social or affordable house in his term as Minister.

What a loser of a Minister for Housing and Local Government.

Bobtheman

There proably is a certain green vote out there in terms of nationalism but unless there is a hunger strike I haven't heard of I doubt its a major priority of the voting class.
As to the women issue give me bloody break.
40% of candidates have to be women. It's enough.
If women fail to elect them whose to blame?

Marcusm

Just had Aontú at the door. OMG, does she think that this is a useful application if anybody’s time.

L1011

Marcusm wrote: »

Just had Aontú at the door. OMG, does she think that this is a useful application if anybody’s time.

Lower odds with PP than two candidates that weren't even running last time someone put them up.

Good loser

Sam Russell wrote: »

My memory of Leo is his railing against SF usurping the Irish tricolour. He has tried to reclaim Irish Nationalism as a major ideal for FG, and not abandon it to FF and SF.

Now it is a bit rich for FG to be claiming the high ground re housing. The DBS bi-election is called because the FG TD responsible for housing policy failed so spectacularly that he has resigned in embarrassment mid term

Even the Irish Glass bottle site, in his own constituency, could not be pressed into building the odd social or affordable house in his term as Minister.

What a loser of a Minister for Housing and Local Government.

That's utterly incorrect. His responsiblity for housing did not continue into the new Govt.

Good loser

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

It's absolutely a knee-jerk reaction to SF showing a big lead in two separate polls last week. He probably had an emergency session with the top brains in the party:

"Why are SF doing so well in the polls?"
"What are their main policies?"
"Building more houses and Reunification?"
"Right, let's jump on those then"

Honestly they could just ignore the Reunification bit because that's not a high priority for many voters.

Literally all FG (or FF for that matter) have to do is stop trying to solve the housing crisis with demand-side solutions. They just cannot seem to do it though.

Yes and in the process magic €10 bn per annum out of the ether. As SF would do.

Sam Russell

Good loser wrote: »

That's utterly incorrect. His responsiblity for housing did not continue into the new Govt.

He was dumped by Leo because of his failure to get any traction with the housing brief - because of his total failure as a Minister. His future in politics was not going to be great.

Good loser

Sam Russell wrote: »

He was dumped by Leo because of his failure to get any traction with the housing brief - because of his total failure as a Minister. His future in politics was not going to be great.

He did alright in housing. Worked very hard.

FG dropped from 15 Ministers to 5 (or so) so many were cast out. Reluctantly.

seligehgit

Meet the candidates.

https://cdn.radiocms.net/radio-cms/uploads/2021/06/18194023/TLW180621DublinBay.mp3?

Brussels Sprout

Good loser wrote: »

Yes and in the process magic €10 bn per annum out of the ether. As SF would do.

I'm no fan of a SF and their policies. I think their opposition to water charges, carbon taxes and especially property taxes are cynical electioneering stunts. However they are 100% right that the state needs to build houses and it needs to build them now.

There's no point offering buyers yet more money to enter the market with if there is hardly anything to buy. That just funnels money straight into the pockets of builders and developers. At the same time, allowing vulture funds to hoover up houses and apartments in order to bleed renters dry for years to come is also a policy that is doing terrible long term damage to the country.

If there's one thing that the central banks and governments of the USA and Eurozone have come around to in the past 12 months it's that there are worse things than debt, especially when interest rates are on the floor.

The housing crisis is slowly strangling this country and a lot of voters appear to be realising this. If they are not impacted directly themselves then their children are or will be in the near future. The only thing stopping another wave of youth migration is that they literally have nowhere to go given the current restrictions.

There's no greater sign that people are waking up to this realisation then that SF are even competitive in a by-election in what is probably the wealthiest, most highly educated constituency in the country.

RandomViewer

Good loser wrote: »

He did alright in housing. Worked very hard.

FG dropped from 15 Ministers to 5 (or so) so many were cast out. Reluctantly.

He was considered an idiot by almost everyone including most of his own party, preening airhead seemed to be the consensus

PhilOssophy

RandomViewer wrote: »

He was considered an idiot by almost everyone including most of his own party, preening airhead seemed to be the consensus

That's what he was. It would be hard to remember a minister more at sea with his portfolio.

And yet he topped the poll next time around....

Blut2

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There's no greater sign that people are waking up to this realisation then that SF are even competitive in a by-election in what is probably the wealthiest, most highly educated constituency in the country.

This is the key, quite shocking issue I think. I'm also no fan at all of SF, but its worth bearing two relevant statistics in mind:

1) Ireland built 90,000+ housing units a year in the mid 2000s, when we had a lower population than now.

2) Ireland built over 10,000 social housing units a year in the 1970s, when we had almost half our current population and were one of the poorest countries in Europe.

We've known since 2015 that a housing crisis was building in Dublin. But since then we've been told repeatedly that we can't afford to build social housing, and/or we don't have the capacity to build large numbers of housing units. That the free market has to be left to sort things out. Its absolute nonsense.

The fact FG are now saying it'll take until 2025 to start building enough housing units per year to make a dent in the housing crisis, and thats their best case scenario, is single-handedly going to hand over government to SF.

Not because SF have a good plan themselves, or will be a good party of government, but simply because they're now the only major opposition party who at least offer the chance of a different strategy being implemented. Its a tragedy is we don't have a more capable opposition party waiting in the wings really.

L1011

But SF have been in Government in Northern Ireland for 14 years and it has a dire homelessness problem including street homelessness; and a housing list that is proportionally significantly higher than it is here. So why should we believe anything they claim on that issue, considering they will need a coalition partner down here just as they have to have them in NI?

They currently hold that Ministry also.

jm08

Bobtheman wrote: »

There proably is a certain green vote out there in terms of nationalism but unless there is a hunger strike I haven't heard of I doubt its a major priority of the voting class.
As to the women issue give me bloody break.
40% of candidates have to be women. It's enough.
If women fail to elect them whose to blame?

Fine Gael dropped Kate O'Connell despite her very nearly taking a 2nd seat for FG in the last election. Fine Gael are not doing very much of the heavy lifting when it comes to female representation in the party.

jm08

Blut2 wrote: »

This is the key, quite shocking issue I think. I'm also no fan at all of SF, but its worth bearing two relevant statistics in mind:

1) Ireland built 90,000+ housing units a year in the mid 2000s, when we had a lower population than now.

2) Ireland built over 10,000 social housing units a year in the 1970s, when we had almost half our current population and were one of the poorest countries in Europe.

We've known since 2015 that a housing crisis was building in Dublin. But since then we've been told repeatedly that we can't afford to build social housing, and/or we don't have the capacity to build large numbers of housing units. That the free market has to be left to sort things out. Its absolute nonsense.

The fact FG are now saying it'll take until 2025 to start building enough housing units per year to make a dent in the housing crisis, and thats their best case scenario, is single-handedly going to hand over government to SF.

Not because SF have a good plan themselves, or will be a good party of government, but simply because they're now the only major opposition party who at least offer the chance of a different strategy being implemented. Its a tragedy is we don't have a more capable opposition party waiting in the wings really.

Building Ireland was on RTE last night and covered the building of Marino in the early 1920s. My god, did they have vision back then. Its on the player if anyone wants to watch it and here is a flavour on facebook.


https://www.facebook.com/FMLocalHistory/videos/currently-on-rte-a-building-ireland-special-one-off-episode-on-the-story-of-marv/323749605529418/

votecounts

L1011 wrote: »

But SF have been in Government in Northern Ireland for 14 years and it has a dire homelessness problem including street homelessness; and a housing list that is proportionally significantly higher than it is here. So why should we believe anything they claim on that issue, considering they will need a coalition partner down here just as they have to have them in NI?

They currently hold that Ministry also.

You do realise that the budget for NI is controlled by Westminster so not exactly comparable.

RandomViewer

L1011 wrote: »

But SF have been in Government in Northern Ireland for 14 years and it has a dire homelessness problem including street homelessness; and a housing list that is proportionally significantly higher than it is here. So why should we believe anything they claim on that issue, considering they will need a coalition partner down here just as they have to have them in NI?

They currently hold that Ministry also.

The NI homeless list is totally different criteria, if the Republic used the same metrics figures would be multiples of the current numbers,

L1011

RandomViewer wrote: »

The NI homeless list is totally different criteria, if the Republic used the same metrics figures would be multiples of the current numbers,

The figures in NI are dreadful by any metric, and the housing list which is comparable is proportionally longer.

We have an exceptionally rare occurrence (unique, really) of being able to see what a party does in a different Government, and they don't do very well on this issue there.

breezy1985

L1011 wrote: »

The figures in NI are dreadful by any metric, and the housing list which is comparable is proportionally longer.

We have an exceptionally rare occurrence (unique, really) of being able to see what a party does in a different Government, and they don't do very well on this issue there.

They were burning down and blowing up the housing stock for a good while up there though. I'm not sure any metrics can be compared between us and a former warzone

Blut2

L1011 wrote: »

But SF have been in Government in Northern Ireland for 14 years and it has a dire homelessness problem including street homelessness; and a housing list that is proportionally significantly higher than it is here. So why should we believe anything they claim on that issue, considering they will need a coalition partner down here just as they have to have them in NI?

They currently hold that Ministry also.

You can absolutely make plenty of valid, logical, arguments about SF's not great record in government in the North. And about plenty of their older TDs down here having unsavory pasts. Or their newer TDs being unfit to govern. But, as the establishment parties are discovering to their horror, none of these arguments really matter to the people suffering from the housing crisis.

For the hundreds of thousands of under 40s locked out of the housing market, and for their older relatives they're stuck living with, the whole situation is becoming comparable to the "left behinds" voting for Trump in the US or Brexit in the UK. If the system isn't working for you, and you have no hope of a stable future, then you'll vote for anyone from outside the establishment who promises to upset the apple cart. Regardless of how fit they may be to rebuild the apple cart.

FG this week coming out with "the housing market may start to become better in 2025" just isn't good enough, given they've been in power since 2011. Telling these people that things may start to get better in half a decade...

The issue is particularly glaring now too given young people have seen the government is both willing and able to magically pump tens of billions of euros into the economy when faced with covid. So theres no excuse why even 10% of of that amount couldn't have been dedicated to large scale housing building programs years ago (or today).

PhilOssophy

PhilOssophy wrote: »

That's what he was. It would be hard to remember a minister more at sea with his portfolio.

And yet he topped the pole next time around....

Eoghan Murphy took the third of four seats in DBS.

That's still pretty shocking. He wasn't on top of his brief, he was not a competent minister, he often sounded confused in interviews when it came to basic questions about supply.

I don't for a moment believe that he reisgned because of abuse. He resigned because he had enough intelligence to know he was bad at his job.

He knew better than the locals who re-elected him, so that doesn't bode well for the next by-election.

DBS is not a very discerning constituency.

Larbre34

PhilOssophy wrote: »

That's what he was. It would be hard to remember a minister more at sea with his portfolio.

And yet he topped the pole next time around....

Umm, poll.

AndrewJRenko

Blut2 wrote: »

The fact FG are now saying it'll take until 2025 to start building enough housing units per year to make a dent in the housing crisis, and thats their best case scenario, is single-handedly going to hand over government to SF.

Not because SF have a good plan themselves, or will be a good party of government, but simply because they're now the only major opposition party who at least offer the chance of a different strategy being implemented.

I think it is inevitable that SF will end up leading the next Government, unless there are major shifts between now and then. It will almost certainly take the shine off them, when they are faced with the reality of limited budgets and making do. What happens after that is anyone's guess - whether parties like FF and Labour will have enough critical mass to even survive or e significant players.

Marcusm

PhilOssophy wrote: »

That's what he was. It would be hard to remember a minister more at sea with his portfolio.

And yet he topped the pole next time around....

No he didn’t; he was third on first preferences (after GP and SF) and was elected without reaching the quota just like Jim O’Callaghan. I actually think Kate O’Connell would have walked it this time if FG threw themselves behind her.