Dublin Bay South By-Election

expectationlost

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

I find it interesting that Geoghegan seems to be getting a decent bit of grief for having recently moved out of the constituency. Its not uncommon for TDs not to live in the constituency and he isn't the only person running that doesn't live in DBS. Boylan hasn't lived there in 42 years, as an example.

it is unusual and Boylan wasn't running at the time he was getting most of that grief.

El Tarangu

El Tarangu wrote: »

Mick Wallace, when he was a TD for Wexford, lived in Dublin.

Richard Bruton no longer lives in the constituency he represents, since they changed the boundary before the last election.

Yeah, it happens. But as I said, there are only a handful of cases. The fact that one of your examples hasn't been a T.D. since 2019 sorta exemplifies how rare it is.

Either way, I don't think it's relevant. Dublin Bay South isn't parochial in that way. People don't mind if he lives a short walk beyond the constiuency boundary.

I think it's his Renua background that will hang him. There isn't a majority in Dublin Bay South who'd tolerate that kind of thing. He will be returned in a normal election, but not yet.

The Greens have shot themselves in the foot, but they probably have the strongest chance. It will be tight, though; it's between the Greens, Geoghegan and (possibly) Bacik.

Peregrine

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Either way, I don't think it's relevant. Dublin Bay South isn't parochial in that way. People don't mind if he lives a short walk beyond the constiuency boundary.

It won't go down well in the Ringsend side of the constituency but he was never going to do well there anyway.

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The Greens have shot themselves in the foot, but they probably have the strongest chance. It will be tight, though; it's between the Greens, Geoghegan and (possibly) Bacik.

I don't see how the Greens are even in the running for this. Especially with an unknown candidate like Claire Byrne. I think finishing above Fianna Fáil would be a good target for them. Deirdre Conroy has been giving them a helping hand there.

Peregrine

Peregrine wrote: »

I think finishing above Fianna Fáil would be a good target for them.

Ah Jaysus, man.

There's a green vote there alright. There's a big FG vote. The only FF vote of any significance is a personal one, for Jim O'Callaghan. There's no party-political FF loyalty to speak of.

Deirdre Conroy will never be elected in DBS.

RandomViewer

Peregrine wrote: »

It won't go down well in the Ringsend side of the constituency but he was never going to do well there anyway.



I don't see how the Greens are even in the running for this. Especially with an unknown candidate like Claire Byrne. I think finishing above Fianna Fáil would be a good target for them. Deirdre Conroy has been giving them a helping hand there.

It's sort of the unionist thing where one party stands aside to maximise the vote only here they run to candidates that's haven't a hope but at least they put someone up

factnee

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

The Greens have shot themselves in the foot, but they probably have the strongest chance. It will be tight, though; it's between the Greens, Geoghegan and (possibly) Bacik.

You can put your money where your mouth is - you'll get the Greens at 25/1

Peregrine

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Ah Jaysus, man.

There's a green vote there alright. There's a big FG vote. The only FF vote of any significance is a personal one, for Jim O'Callaghan. There's no party-political FF loyalty to speak of.

Deirdre Conroy will never be elected in DBS.

Conroy will likely never be elected to the Dáil anywhere. She took the last of six seats in Kimmage-Rathmines without reaching the quota. Bizarre failed Dáil campaign in Dublin Rathdown where she has no profile followed by a failed Seanad campaign. And now this. Does she even live in Dublin Bay South herself? I know she's also from Clonskeagh.

But I just don't see where the Green vote is going to come from to get anywhere near Geoghegan and Bacik. Byrne could take a seat in the general election if Ryan retires but not in a by-election.

Bobtheman

I'd love to see FG losing it but no sign yet.

golfball37

This wouldn’t even be a race had Kate gotten the FG nomination

Brussels Sprout

Peregrine wrote: »

Conroy will likely never be elected to the Dáil anywhere. She took the last of six seats in Kimmage-Rathmines without reaching the quota. Bizarre failed Dáil campaign in Dublin Rathdown where she has no profile followed by a failed Seanad campaign. And now this. Does she even live in Dublin Bay South herself? I know she's also from Clonskeagh.
.

FF & FG did this a lot in the last election. This would have been purely a Gender Quota pick. They needed to have 40% of their candidates be women but struggled to reach that number organically. Their solution was to run no-hopers in some constituencies in order to make up the numbers.

In Cork North Central alone both parties ran candidates for this reason:

• Lorraine O'Neill - FG. She polled 2.2% in comparison to her party colleague Colm Burke who polled 12.8%. There was only ever going to be a single seat for FG here and Burke was far from a shoe-in to win it although he did in the end.
• Sandra Murphy - FF. She polled 2.4% when there was already 2 other male FF candidates running in a scenario where 2 seats was FF's absolute maximum. I believe her selection resulted in Kenneth O'Flynn quitting the party and running as an independent instead which split the vote and ended any chance they had of winning 2 seats.

Peregrine

Peregrine wrote: »

But I just don't see where the Green vote is going to come from to get anywhere near Geoghegan and Bacik. Byrne could take a seat in the general election if Ryan retires but not in a by-election.

Eamon Ryan, who is not a particularly charismatic politician, topped the poll in DBS at the last election, by a wide margin. Hazel Chu topped the poll in Pembroke, again by a wide margin, as did Claire Byrne in the South East Inner City. There is a big green vote here for the taking. The Greens will finish leagues ahead of FF, whether they win the seat or not.

I think Bacik's chances have been overstated, but she is a contender for sure. I like her. I'm not sure DBS does, or even the Labour Party -- she hasn't even won a selection convention recently. She will be 'placed', if we can use horse-racing parlance.

Blut2

Whichever one of Bacik / Claire Byrne / the SocDem candidate gets the most first preference votes on the first count is probably favourite to finish second (or beat Geoghegan if he really messes up) in the race overall. The first two of them that are knocked out should transfer heavily to the one remaining still in the count.

expectationlost

Peregrine wrote: »

Conroy will likely never be elected to the Dáil anywhere. She took the last of six seats in Kimmage-Rathmines without reaching the quota. Bizarre failed Dáil campaign in Dublin Rathdown where she has no profile followed by a failed Seanad campaign. And now this. Does she even live in Dublin Bay South herself? I know she's also from Clonskeagh.

she lives on north west side of Clonskeagh that is in DBS

Blut2

Blut2 wrote: »

Whichever one of Bacik / Claire Byrne / the SocDem candidate gets the most first preference votes on the first count is probably favourite to finish second (or beat Geoghegan if he really messes up) in the race overall. The first two of them that are knocked out should transfer heavily to the one remaining still in the count.

Soc Dems aren't in the race, at least not in the top-3.

I doubt the count will go that far into the eliminations. What's going to be the quota, about 20,000? In that case, the winner could easily be elected on Sinn Fein transfers, or Labour if it comes to that. The former favour the Greens, the latter favour FG. It will be close.

Peregrine

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Soc Dems aren't in the race, at least not in the top-3.

I doubt the count will go that far into the eliminations. What's going to be the quota, about 20,000? In that case, the winner could easily be elected on Sinn Fein transfers, or Labour if it comes to that. The former favour the Greens, the latter favour FG. It will be close.

The quota is 50% of votes. The count will likely go all the way until there's only one candidate left. That's what makes by-elections so interesting.

When was the last time someone reached the quota in a by-election?

L1011

I'd be willing to guess it hasn't happened since the days of uncontested constituencies also happening (mid 20s). There was a 67% in 1923


Elimination order determines everything here. If its Geogheghan, Boylan, Bacik at the final elimination; Geogheghan should get it. If its Bacik, Boylan instead for 2/3, Bacik could get it. And if the Greens are still going by that stage its anyones guess.

KevRossi

Peregrine wrote: »

When was the last time someone reached the quota in a by-election?

L1011 wrote: »

I'd be willing to guess it hasn't happened since the days of uncontested constituencies also happening (mid 20s).

Enda Kenny got elected on 52.8% of the vote in 1975. That was the by-election after the death of his father.

KevRossi

Actually there have been a few.

Michael Kitt in Galway NE in 1975 (52.8%)
Noel Treacyy in Galway East in 1982 (50.2%)

Probably some others, I haven't really looked.

seligehgit

Just curious what peoples thoughts are on Sarah Durcan from the Social Democrats?

Until quite recently I was unaware she was the daughter of a former well known councillor in my neck of the woods.

I wouldn't imagine this constituency would be a hotbed of Social Democrat voters but what with the want of some voters to give the government parties a kick in the teeth....

Brussels Sprout

Not a by-election but also a race where the quota is 50% + 1: Michael D. Higgins got 55.8% of first preference votes in the 2018 Presidential election.

Peregrine

Peregrine wrote: »

When was the last time someone reached the quota in a by-election?

14 by-elections ago. 2009 Dublin South by-election. Fine Gael in their prime got 54% of first preference votes. James Geoghegan would be doing well if he got half of that.

Even Helen McEntee couldn't reach the quota after getting 39% of first preference votes in Meath East after the death of her father in 2013.

RunningFlyer

Is anyone else finding James Geoghagan a bit too intense and trying too hard? He’s popping up so often on my socials he’s actually starting to annoy me.

I’m not even living in the constituency so surprised he’s showing up everywhere and have no idea who the other candidates are but if he’s as widespread in the local area I would hate for FG be trying too much.

Just can’t warm to him unfortunately. (If I were a voter there)

Annasopra

seligehgit wrote: »

Just curious what peoples thoughts are on Sarah Durcan from the Social Democrats?

Until quite recently I was unaware she was the daughter of a former well known councillor in my neck of the woods.

I wouldn't imagine this constituency would be a hotbed of Social Democrat voters but what with the want of some voters to give the government parties a kick in the teeth....

She seems an okish candidate but she hasnt really got a hope against Bacik, Boylan, Byrne and Geogheghan. I think she might well poll ahead of FF though.

Leonard Hofstadter

Peregrine wrote: »

14 by-elections ago. 2009 Dublin South by-election. Fine Gael in their prime got 54% of first preference votes. James Geoghegan would be doing well if he got half of that.

Even Helen McEntee couldn't reach the quota after getting 39% of first preference votes in Meath East after the death of her father in 2013.

That was the George Lee one, wasn't it? Last time I remember a by-election where a candidate reached the quota on the first count. There are few certainties in life, but that not happening this time around is one of them.

L1011

I should have looked a bit further back rather than doing the last ~10 years and then checking from the other end before assuming it was that ancient a thing! Forgot about Lee entirely. That old constituency could pull ~40% FG votes on their good days in normal elections of course.

seligehgit

seligehgit wrote: »

Just curious what peoples thoughts are on Sarah Durcan from the Social Democrats?

Totally irrelevant. Wasn't even aware of her running. I hope she is good at her other job, whatever that is, because she hasn't a hope in Dublin Bay.

For Forks Sake

A Lamb Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Totally irrelevant. Wasn't even aware of her running. I hope she is good at her other job, whatever that is, because she hasn't a hope in Dublin Bay.

Indeed. Word-vomit of a job description if ever I've seen one.

https://www.socialdemocrats.ie/our-people/sarah-durcan/

Sarah is the Associate Director of Science Gallery International, the non-profit organisation building the world’s first university-linked network that brings science, art, technology and design together to deliver world-class educational and cultural experiences for young people

RandomViewer

FG voters are too mean to waste pencil lead on a second preference and the other parties know this so its unlikely There'll be many transfers to the FG candidate so even if it gets 80% or so of the quota on first preference it could be a long wait for more votes and the order of exclusions could be the key,

Jerry Attrick

seligehgit wrote: »

Just curious what peoples thoughts are on Sarah Durcan from the Social Democrats?

Until quite recently I was unaware she was the daughter of a former well known councillor in my neck of the woods.

I wouldn't imagine this constituency would be a hotbed of Social Democrat voters but what with the want of some voters to give the government parties a kick in the teeth....

If you really want to kick the government in the teeth, then the slipper wearing, fence-sitting, holier than thou Soc Dems aren't really the ones to vote for!

PhilOssophy

James Geoghegan has long been active on Social Media.......