Dublin Bay South By-Election

blackwhite

I see breaking news this morning that Eoghan Murphy is resigning from the Dáil

https://www.rte.ie/news/2021/0427/1212292-politics-eoghan-murphy/

Will be quite the battle to take his seat, in what is a very diverse constituency. It has some of the most affluent neighbourhoods in Dublin, but also has sizeable traditionally working class areas like Ringsend, Irishtown & Pearse St. On top of that there's a large population of young renters in the constituency who can have a large voice if they come out to vote.


FG were the only party to run two candidates in the 3-seater, with all others opting for single candidates, and FG won the most combined first-preference votes last year, taking 27.7% but splitting it between Murphy and Kate O'Connell with only Murphy ultimately being elected for them (without meeting the quota).

Eamon Ryan topped the poll individually with 22.4% getting in on the first count.
Chris Andrews took 16.1% for SF, but only actually polled 15 votes more than Murphy (who had a running mate), and ultimately reached the quota on the 8th & final count with transfers from Labour pushing him over the line.
Jim O'Callaghan took 13.8% for FF and was elected without reaching the quota.

Labour took 7.9% and SocDems 4.5% with the remaining small parties and Indos combining for approx 7.5%

Hazel Chu likely to be the Green candidate, given she's their highest profile councillor in the constituency, and has been pushing for promotion within the party. Claire Byrne has a decent profile in the eastern end of the constituency, but unlikely to get the nod ahead of Chu.
Kate O'Connell is the first name likely to be thought of for FG, but she's had a few high profile spats with Varadkar so remains to be seen if they'll back her here, although their councillors on DCC for DBS all have a lower profile than O'Connell.
Sinn Fein's only councillor within the constituency is Daniel Ceitinn, who was co-opted to replace Chris Andrews following GE20. Andrews has been their only high profile face in the area for a number of years, so difficult to see if they'll use this as an opportunity for Ceitinn to build some profile, or draft someone else in.
Claire O'Connor is probably the highest profile FF councillor in the area, but FF in Dublin Bay South has been dominated by Jim O'Callaghan for some time now (and before that Chris Andrews prior to his jumping ship) so they'll suffer for not having a ready-made 2nd candidate in place.
Kevin Humphries will likely be the Labour candidate again, whilst long-standing repeat candidates Sarah Durcan (SDs), Annette Mooney (PBP), and Mannix Flynn (IND) are all likely to be on the ballot.

FG will likely top the poll, with Greens and SF vying for 2nd spot. Personal popularity of the Green and SF candidates will be very important in getting out the vote.
How strong FF poll will likely determine how the final picture looks (has it been a personal O'Callaghan vote, or will the FF share hold?), because ultimately the transfers from FF and Lab will determine the final position here.
I think this will end up either FG or Green - if either is in 3rd place in the penultimate count then their transfers will end up pushing the other over the line. If SF end up in 3rd place, then their transfers could be enough to push the Green candidate into 1st ahead of FG.

crossman47

I can't see the Green vote coming out fully for Chu as she is so much of mefeiner and, in the current climate, some of those votes could go to SF. I think FG are favourites but SF, no matter what candidate, will run them close.

blackwhite

crossman47 wrote: »

I can't see the Green vote coming out fully for Chu as she is so much of mefeiner and, in the current climate, some of those votes could go to SF. I think FG are favourites but SF, no matter what candidate, will run them close.

It's hard to know how Chu will do (if selected) - she's a politician who elicits strong reactions, both positive and negative, but the negative seems to get a lot of airing on here and other social media outlets and drowns out much of the positive.
She received 33% of the vote in Pembroke LEA in 2019 and if my memory is correct received the highest individual vote in the country (albeit on the back of the "Green wave") so there's evidently some strong local support there for her.

L1011

Off the wall suggestion - Lucinda to run for FG again.

Labour will probably run Ivana Bacik rather than Humphreys, which I don't think is a good idea - Humphreys has more chance of getting a seat in a full election so keeping his profile alive now he's out of the Seanad is important.

blackwhite

L1011 wrote: »

Off the wall suggestion - Lucinda to run for FG again.

Labour will probably run Ivana Bacik rather than Humphreys, which I don't think is a good idea - Humphreys has more chance of getting a seat in a full election so keeping his profile alive now he's out of the Seanad is important.

Humphreys has a strong personal vote in the area as well. He was very well-regarded from his time on DCC and is a former TD and Minister for State.

Bacik has failed every time she has stood in a General Election, and indeed has failed any time she has stood for election outside of the Trinity bubble.

Humphreys is the traditional type of Labour candidate, doing hard work on the ground for working-class constituents.
Bacik is seem by many as the embodiment of the champagne socialism that Labour is perceived to be enamoured with, more interested in high-profile social justice campaigning than actually getting her hands dirty by mixing with the ordinary folk

L1011

Outside of Trinity, Bacik's stood in one by-election (in which she did credibly well), one Euro election (as a second candidate who was never going to be elected) and one general election (as a second candidate and was only ~150 votes behind Boyd-Barrett at elimination); that isn't anywhere near as poor an electoral performance as is often portrayed.

SF's TD for Dublin West failed to get elected five times for the Dáil and twice for Fingal CC before getting across the line in each case and yet never got even a fraction of the "failed at elections" pressure that Bacik gets.

Regardless, I still don't think she's the suitable candidate here.

coylemj

The variable that's always in play during a by-election is that sitting TDs have a dilemna - canvass too eagerly for their party's candidate and risk having them as a sitting TD running mate at the next general election. When there may not be room for the both of you.

Chris Andrews would have most to fear if the party parachutes in someone like Lynn Boylan. And given the way SF works, he will have no say in the matter.

Chips Lovell

The idea of a Creighton comeback is intriguing. Was going to say that too many bridges have been burned, but a.) it was a long time ago and b.) the abortion issue (which is what she left Fine Gael about) is long settled.

Chu is a bit of a Bovril candidate. People either love her or hate her. My impression though, and this is solely going by commentary online, is that the people who hate her would be unlikely to have voted for the Greens anyway.

hotmail.com

Hazel Chu's solo run will do her no favours now. She really messed up.

blackwhite

Seeing that Humpreys sounding like he endorsed Bacik for the nomination on a radio interview.

Talk about Labour shooting themselves in the foot again - Bacik is not the type of candidate to win back the working class vote for Labour

touts

Do Ivana or Hazel even live in the constituency or is this just another Look at me Look at me LOOK AT ME exercise.

blackwhite

Pembroke LEA where Chu was elected to DCC from is in Dublin Bay South.

Regardless of how you feel about her self-promotion, she is genuinely the strongest candidate the Greens could stand for this bye-election.

Raytown Rocks

Have never ever seen Chu, in the area. ( Ringsend/Irishtown/Pearse Street )
fairly sure she didn't run in the constituency in 2020
Don't see her picking up many votes around these areas in my opinion

Chips Lovell

She didn't run in 2020. Ryan was the candidate.

Raytown Rocks

Chips Lovell wrote: »

She didn't run in 2020. Ryan was the candidate.

Sorry I appreciate that, but I suppose its more the fact, she's seldom seen around this part of the area, very little visibility

blackwhite

chef wrote: »

Sorry I appreciate that, but I suppose its more the fact, she's seldom seen around this part of the area, very little visibility

Her LEA is Pembroke - based on the above sounds like you're in South East Inner City LEA. No reason for her to have been active in that part of the constituency before this.

Augme

blackwhite wrote: »

Seeing that Humpreys sounding like he endorsed Bacik for the nomination on a radio interview.

Talk about Labour shooting themselves in the foot again - Bacik is not the type of candidate to win back the working class vote for Labour

There aren't that many working class votes in Dublin south. The champagne socialists would be a much bigger target market.

Raytown Rocks

blackwhite wrote: »

Her LEA is Pembroke - based on the above sounds like you're in South East Inner City LEA. No reason for her to have been active in that part of the constituency before this.

I am in Dublin bay South, She is not.
To drop her into a location that she has never been seen in, in the hope of gaining a seat in the Dail doesn't make sense to me.

28064212

chef wrote: »

I am in Dublin bay South, She is not.
To drop her into a location that she has never been seen in, in the hope of gaining a seat in the Dail doesn't make sense to me.

What? The Pembroke LEA is part of the Dublin Bay South constituency. She received 33% of the first preference votes in the local elections and was elected on the first count, I'm going to guess that she has some visibility there. She definitely wouldn't be a drop-in candidate

blackwhite

chef wrote: »

I am in Dublin bay South, She is not.
To drop her into a location that she has never been seen in, in the hope of gaining a seat in the Dail doesn't make sense to me.

She lives in Ranelagh - or did before moving into the Mansion House at least. That's also part of the Dublin Bay South Constituency.


For Local Elections Claire O'Connor covers the South East Inner City LEA, and Chu covers Pembroke. Both are in Dublin Bay South, just different areas within the constituency

[Deleted User]

Leo hates Kate O'Connell with a vengeance since she gobbed off a bit too much during the FG leadership vote process where she was up for Coveney.

He went out of his way on a number of occasions to ensure that she didn't get near a Seanad seat since she lost out in the last election.

If he has his wish he'd want someone else up as the FG candidate. He doesn't want her back in the Dail.

Shelga

Chips Lovell wrote: »

Chu is a bit of a Bovril candidate. People either love her or hate her. My impression though, and this is solely going by commentary online, is that the people who hate her would be unlikely to have voted for the Greens anyway.

I gave the Greens my #2 in the last GE, and I can’t stand Hazel Chu. She is entirely self-serving, but what sealed it for me was her throwing the Gardai under the bus when George Nkencho was killed. What kind of attitude is that from the Lord Mayor of Dublin? Identity politics trumps all.

Although I don’t live in her constituency, I think there are enough people that see through her in Dublin Bay South too.

blackwhite

Paddy Power initial odds

Kate O'Connell (FG) 2/1
James Geoghegan (FG) 11/4
Hazel Chu (Green) 5/1
Ivana Bacik (LAB) 6/1
Lynn Boylan (SF) 8/1
Deirdre Conroy (FF) 12/1
Michael McDowell (IND) 20/1
Claire O'Connor (FF) 33/1
Lucina Creighton (IND) 40/1
Saoirse McHugh (ARG/IND?) 100/1

Suprised to see Bacik at shorter odds to Boylan. Both very similar on social issues and both of similar level of profile.
Would have thought Boylan would pull more votes both due to the SF ticket v Labour and being seen as less "chamagne socialist" than Bacik.

retalivity

WTF is Boylan doing in there?
The highest profile SF'er in the Dublin region without a seat?

KevRossi

Chips Lovell wrote: »

The idea of a Creighton comeback is intriguing. Was going to say that too many bridges have been burned, but a.) it was a long time ago and b.) the abortion issue (which is what she left Fine Gael about) is long settled.


Chu is a bit of a Bovril candidate. People either love her or hate her. My impression though, and this is solely going by commentary online, is that the people who hate her would be unlikely to have voted for the Greens anyway.

The Sindo ran a very strong pro- Kate O'Connell and anti-Creighton campaign in 2016. That's why Creightion lost. She was on the wrong side of Varadkar in the leadership contest a couple of years back, made some snide remarks. I think she's finished here.

Chu did very well in the Locals, but I'm wondering how many of her voters have a vote in the GE elections. She's also dirtied her bib and has rubbed up a decent portion of the GP the wrong way. That won't help her.

What will help her is that right now she's one of the highest profile people on that list of potential candidates. It depends how transfer friendly she is.

Andrews won't want any SF candidate to do too well as if they win they'll have to run at the next GE, there's no space for two SF seats there and splitting the vote means they could lose Andrews.

Timing will be crucial. Will it be before the summer? Is that irresponsible with COVID? Or will they wait till after summer when more are vaccinated.

Then again 6 months is a very long time in politics and they may be better off running it now in case vaccinations are not on track and things aren't opening up. If vaccinations are going well and we're opening up pubs and shops then they might get a feelgood factor out of it.

I guess they are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

blackwhite

retalivity wrote: »

WTF is Boylan doing in there?
The highest profile SF'er in the Dublin region without a seat?

They haven't had anyone other than Chris Andrews of note in the area either as a councilor or a TD for quite some time. He was their only councillor elected for any of the LEAs in Dublin Bay South in 2014 or in 2019.

When Andrews was elected as a TD last year Daniel Céitinn was co-opted onto DCC, but he has never run before so mightn't be ready for a bye-election run just yet.

Their candidate in Pembroke LEA got a whole 210 votes in 2019, so wouldn't really be a runner for a Dail seat, and their two candidates in Kimmage-Rathmines (of which a portion falls into Dublin Bay South) polled 12th and 13th out of 15 candidates in 2019.

They know that it's not a constiuency they're likely to win a bye-election in, so it makes sense for them to run one of their most high-profile non-TDs to keep her profile up whilst planning for the next GE.

hotmail.com

Ivana just doesn't win elections.

She was on the news saying she wanted to be elected because she's a woman.

Hardly a convincing argument to vote for someone.

Brussels Sprout

blackwhite wrote: »

Suprised to see Bacik at shorter odds to Boylan. Both very similar on social issues and both of similar level of profile.
Would have thought Boylan would pull more votes both due to the SF ticket v Labour and being seen as less "chamagne socialist" than Bacik.

Has Boylan declared an interest yet? If not then that'll explain a large part of that difference since Bacik has already expressed an interest in running. Similarly FG are #1 and #2 but only 1 of them will be running (under the FG banner anyway).

Once the candidates are confirmed that will all change by a fair bit.

Brussels Sprout

Just doing a simple analysis by projection last year's election results into a bi-election scenario:

Since this a by-election the quota will be 50% + 1 vote. That would have been 19,716 votes

Votes by Party

FG: 10,970
GP: 8,888
SF: 6,361
FF: 5,474
LAB: 3,121
SD: 1,801
PBP: 1,002


So first observation is, not surprisingly, no party is anywhere near a by-election quota. That means that transfers will be crucial.

If the government parties decide to transfer to each other and their vote holds up they'd have about 1.28 quotas combined. In contrast SF-LAB-SD-PBP only had 0.62 of a quota - less than half.

On those numbers the government parties will hold it easily even accounting for a drop in FF and GP votes to reflect their polling and even if Green voters transfer left instead of to FF/FG.

tHE vAGGABOND

I would think Ivana Bacik is hard to beat. She will gather a lot number 1's and will get bag loads of transfers. A lot of folks like her and she will up a lot of "lending her their vote" [what is the expression, can't think of how to word it right..]

Any other area I would say Sinners romp home - but not that part of South Dublin

rdwight

Chips Lovell wrote: »

The idea of a Creighton comeback is intriguing. Was going to say that too many bridges have been burned, but a.) it was a long time ago and b.) the abortion issue (which is what she left Fine Gael about) is long settled.

Chu is a bit of a Bovril candidate. People either love her or hate her. My impression though, and this is solely going by commentary online, is that the people who hate her would be unlikely to have voted for the Greens anyway.

Without being in the party I know of at least six Green voters, three in DBS, who wouldn't vote for her because of her grandstanding during week Climate Action Bill was launched.