Dublin Bay South By-Election

Brussels Sprout

Is Justin Barrett the first person to run in a by-election who is banned from twitter? (I think GOD still had her account when she ran in the Fingal by-election)

retalivity

KevRossi wrote: »

Yeah. Deirdre Conroy is running for FF.

I'm actually looking forward to the televised debates. Pity Chu isn't running, I'd like to see her up against Justin Barrett for the laughs.

Is there normally televised debates for by-elections? Seems weirdly D4-centric, surely if the by-election was Roscommon or somewhere there wouldn't be the same coverage...

KevRossi

retalivity wrote: »

Is there normally televised debates for by-elections? Seems weirdly D4-centric, surely if the by-election was Roscommon or somewhere there wouldn't be the same coverage...

They actually had televised debates for the Roscommon by-election when Ming Flanagan was elected MEP in 2014. The debate on RTE was the one that sealed it for Michael Fitzmaurice. He's a full on populist and he got his message out that night. (I'm a Rossie so I remember all this. )

If the election is on July 8th, then it's a bit of a dead season for politics, so they'll be happy to show it. They'd show it anyway as it's a bit of a bear fight and our primal instincts kick in, we all like to see someone getting savaged.

AndrewJRenko

Larbre34 wrote: »

His is a child size however.

I actually did try searching for a child size Nazi hat but nothing. I'm probably on some CIA hot list now.

Muahahaha

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Are there any screwball candidates as yet?

That one Norma Burke aka Bunty Twuntingdon McFluff who ran for the Presidency in 2018 is running in this byelection. I think she said she is running as a serious candidate this time.

When she was looking for a council nomination to run for President in 2018 she told Dublin City Council

As I’m new in town I thought it would be a super idea to run for president to get some free publicity for my business.

"If I win, I’d cease trading for seven years, however I’d use that time to host people useful to my interests and make a lot of powerful contacts.

I never found her act in any way funny but with the above statement she satirised very well the intentions of the 3 Dragons who were running for President at the time, it was nothing more than a business opportunity for them.

blackwhite

Does Norma Burke actually do anything - or is she just a professional twitter commenter?

Peregrine

Muahahaha wrote: »

That one Norma Burke aka Bunty Twuntingdon McFluff who ran for the Presidency in 2018 is running in this byelection. I think she said she is running as a serious candidate this time.

She ran in Dublin Bay South as 'a serious candidate' in 2020. She got 110 first preference votes.

I believe she's also running for Mayor of Limerick later this year.

breezy1985

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

I actually did try searching for a child size Nazi hat but nothing. I'm probably on some CIA hot list now.

Google "worst kids Halloween costumes" and a few pictures of a child dressed as Barrett come up

RandomViewer

Geoghan admits to polling for Renua

https://www.thejournal.ie/james-geoghegan-renua-5462727-Jun2021/

expectationlost

blackwhite wrote: »

Does Norma Burke actually do anything - or is she just a professional twitter commenter?

seems so, just self righteousness



thought her accusing a particular person as being the person who threw the milkshakes at Leo without proof was ill-judged.

Annasopra

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Are there any screwball candidates as yet?

Michael McGrath

Neo Nazi Homophobe
https://sites.google.com/site/guydecervens/michaelmcgrathonkukluxklanwebsite
https://www.anphoblacht.com/contents/26034
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2055097616
https://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/12/10/anything-good-in-the-kilkenny-journal/

breezy1985

Annasopra wrote: »

Michael McGrath

Neo Nazi Homophobe
https://sites.google.com/site/guydecervens/michaelmcgrathonkukluxklanwebsite
https://www.anphoblacht.com/contents/26034
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2055097616
https://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/12/10/anything-good-in-the-kilkenny-journal/

Could end up splitting the Nazi vote in Dublin Bay and hurt Barrett's chance of getting 2% of the vote

Brussels Sprout

All jokes aside, I will be genuinely interested to see where the transfers go for an actual Nazi candidate. Presumably Barrett will get most of them but it would be slightly amusing if they ended up with one of the more conventional candidates.

For Forks Sake

blackwhite wrote: »

Does Norma Burke actually do anything - or is she just a professional twitter commenter?

Spends what seems most of her waking hours acting the contrarian on twitter.

Annasopra wrote: »

Michael McGrath

Neo Nazi Homophobe
https://sites.google.com/site/guydecervens/michaelmcgrathonkukluxklanwebsite
https://www.anphoblacht.com/contents/26034
https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin//showthread.php?t=2055097616
https://www.broadsheet.ie/2014/12/10/anything-good-in-the-kilkenny-journal/

I ain't clicking on any of those links, but I'm assuming he's the Kilkenny Journal lad? Deeply unpleasant individual.

breezy1985

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

All jokes aside, I will be genuinely interested to see where the transfers go for an actual Nazi candidate. Presumably Barrett will get most of them but it would be slightly amusing if they ended up with one of the more conventional candidates.

If I was a Nazi I would give my 2nd preference to the Blueshirts just to troll them

RandomViewer

Will Harris be resigning seeing as his candidate is "Sinister"?

Annasopra

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

All jokes aside, I will be genuinely interested to see where the transfers go for an actual Nazi candidate. Presumably Barrett will get most of them but it would be slightly amusing if they ended up with one of the more conventional candidates.

Given that McGrath in last year or two is actively having a go at NP and Barrett I think to be honest they may not

expectationlost

So Geoghegan he did a poll for Lucinda Creighton in 2016 https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1402927054346203136

Why do you need to do a poll when the Independent/Millward Brown does one for you?

2016 FG has Creighton's Dáil seat firmly in its sights https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2016/fg-has-creightons-dail-seat-firmly-in-its-sights-34467153.html

expectationlost

Deirdre Conroy is pathetic https://ift.tt/3cyWKYD .mp3 RTE This Week while working as architectural historian she claims she did not pay attention or notice Fianna Fails overly close relationship with developers?

Boylan wouldn't state what she wanted done with the SCC

rdwight

breezy1985 wrote: »

If I was a Nazi I would give my 2nd preference to the Blueshirts just to troll them

Or perhaps to Sinn Fein as a mark of respect to Sean Russell

Sheeps

It'll be between Boylan and Geoghegan. A lot of the crap the twitter mob are shouting about re Geoghegan normal people in the constituency just don't care about. I'm looking forward to Conroy and Bacik being told where to go. It feels like Labour in particular have got their hopes up. It'll be hilarious when the reality of just how toxic the brand is hits home once they start counting the votes.

expectationlost

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1404766490063167489

There are no opinion polls, AFAIK, but Paddy Power have updated their odds on the likely winner. Geoghegan now available at even odds.

Geoghegan: 1/1 (from 8/13)
Boylan: 6/4 (shortening, from 7/2)
Bacik: 9/2 (widening, from 5/2)
Byrne: 33/1 (widening, from 25/1)

I can't understand the perception of support for Boylan, but presumably this is based on betting activity, so is an opinion poll of sorts. Perhaps she will do well in transfers, but the next competitor (Bacik) is likely to transfer to FG. Seems like Geoghegan has it in the bag.

Rjd2

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

There are no opinion polls, AFAIK, but Paddy Power have updated their odds on the likely winner. Geoghegan now available at even odds.

Geoghegan: 1/1 (from 8/13)
Boylan: 6/4 (shortening, from 7/2)
Bacik: 9/2 (widening, from 5/2)
Byrne: 33/1 (widening, from 25/1)

I can't understand the perception of support for Boylan, but presumably this is based on betting activity, so is an opinion poll of sorts. Perhaps she will do well in transfers, but the next competitor (Bacik) is likely to transfer to FG. Seems like Geoghegan has it in the bag.

Betting activity for sure a major factor.

Also excellent polls for SF recently and obviously punters looking at Geoghegan and understandably been hugely unimpressed and not wanting to put money on him when he was much shorter odds.

I do think though if he gets much bigger price wise then the canny punters will get involved, yes he is useless but he should still be solid fav for this.

Rjd2

Rjd2 wrote: »

I do think though if he gets much bigger price wise then the canny punters will get involved, yes he is useless but he should still be solid fav for this.

Evens is a decent prospect on Geoghegan already, don't you think? I'd be tempted to lay a small bet on himself and Claire Byrne; if she stays in the race longer than Bacik, she has a small chance.

Just cannot see Boylan crossing the line here. Nobody I've spoken tn DBS has any interest in her, and they'd be left-leaning.

KevRossi

I've passed through DBS a couple of times over the past few days. Early days, but I got the impression Byrne was concentrating the posters on her ward. I think she's doing this in a bid to keep up recognition for the locals and maybe not get elected so she doesn't threaten Ryan at the next GE.

It could turn into a Govt. (FG/FF) v. anti-Govt. (SF/Labour and the rest) debate, but the results of the polls the past few days show that most peoplr think the government is doing a decent job of the vaccinations and the slow return to normality. That may stand well for Geoghan.

Boylan or Bacik would have a chance if one or the other was running, but they will take votes off each other.

Not sure where Conroy's votes will transfer, could be interesting if everyone outside of FG transfers to each other.

Richmond Ultra

Anyone any idea what the story re Geoghan is that Paddy Cosgrove is getting excited about on twitter?

Brussels Sprout

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

I can't understand the perception of support for Boylan, but presumably this is based on betting activity, so is an opinion poll of sorts. Perhaps she will do well in transfers, but the next competitor (Bacik) is likely to transfer to FG. Seems like Geoghegan has it in the bag.

It's probably a combination of betting activity but also those 2 national polls showing SF with a clear lead during the week.

As for Boylan, she's one of the more appropriate candidates that they could run here. She's well educated, attractive, good on twitter and most importantly, doesn't have the whiff of cordite off of her that some of their other well known members do. Put it this way, she'd do a lot better in DBS then David Cullinane would.

As for the Labour transfers, it's tricky to know where they will go. We don't really have any recent examples. In the 2020 election, in most constituencies the SF candidate had already been elected at the time of the Labour candidates elimination. Then in the 2019 local elections in Dublin most wards elected Labour councilors (so their transfers never happened).

My hunch is that the Green, Labour and Soc Dem transfers might split evenly between Geoghegan and Boylan and that will probably be good enough to get Geoghegan elected since he'll likely top the first preferences and get most of Conroy's transfers.

AndrewJRenko

Richmond Ultra wrote: »

Anyone any idea what the story re Geoghan is that Paddy Cosgrove is getting excited about on twitter?

Anything to do with four dead nurses?

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

As for the Labour transfers, it's tricky to know where they will go. We don't really have any recent examples.

Well in DBS in 2020, only the Green candidate, Eamon Ryan, had been elected. Humphrey's (Labour) elimination elected SF, FG and FF

3,916 of Labour votes transferred as follows:
SF: 24.5%
FG (Murphy): 21.3%
FF: 25%
FG (O'Connell): 29.2%

The dynamics are all different, less than 1.5 years later, but I still think that trend will be roughly maintained.

So 50% of Labour votes transferred to the FG candidates, in a nationwide disaster for FG. I don't have other data to hand, but this seems to be an ongoing phenomenon, and really pulls the rug from under any idea that Labour is a left-wing party. Local party organisation, eg councillors like Dermot Lacey, are almost obsessively anti-SF.

I can see Labour transferring well to FG again, and to the greens, but the latter are only in with a small chance it seems.