Dublin Bay South By-Election

breezy1985

Annasopra wrote: »

Honestly I am beginning to think at the next election that all the small left parties will be crushed by SF dominance. SF will want 2nd seats where Labour, Soc Dems, PBP, Solidarity, Greens have seats and you may end with almost no left opposition at all. The current group of TDs from PBP, Solidarity, Greens, Soc Dems snd less so labour all benefited from SFs surpluses. If SF run many 2nd candidates there wont be spare surpluses. My thinking is that PBP/Sol, Labour, Soc Dems will all get 3ish seats and Greens 0. So it would be optimstic to think PBP could play that game.

I think most of the ones still hanging on are strong at a local level though so some will hang on but certainly the Dublin PBP/Sol+ TDs benifited from a lack of available SF transfers

blackwhite

RBB will still get a seat

Outside of that Bríd Smith might sneak the final seat in Dublin South Central if SF only run two candidates there, and Gino Kenny is in a similar situation in Dublin Mid-West.

Paul Murphy might squeeze the final seat in Dublin SW with the Greens missing out, but hard to see where he gets the transfers to hang on into the later counts if SF have a strong second candidate

Yurt2

PhilOssophy wrote: »

To be honest, I am tired of career protest politicians sitting in the opposition benches bleating about how everything is wrong and earning more than they could ever dream of with their level of education.

Maybe we need to see how Mr "Up the RA" gets on as Minister for Health. Or Pearse in Finance when he realises where wealth is generated in this country as it is.

Lets see where the money comes out of, and if indeed it is as simple as taxing corporations and the wealthy (in their mind, those earning over 60k, paying for everything they own, getting nothing for nothing) to pay their many promises on everything for everyone.

This is a white noise angryman post. There's plenty of dunderheaded TDs on the government side of the house and always has been that are promoted way above their station if we're parsing through their education. Who can forget Bertie trying to make out he was a graduate of the London School of Economics when all he did was register for a course or Simon Harris the college dropout?

We're a parliamentary democracy, do you want the opposition to throw a ticker-tape parade for the government every day?

Immature white noise.

Yurt2

Dempo1 wrote: »

I think Leo loosing the plot, From pronouncements on a united Ireland ( never seemed to care till recently ), 40k homes a year ( since when did FG give a damn about home ownership, O yes, when they brought in property Tax, silly me ), and then today announcing the Pandemic is over during a very tetchy interview on the week in politics. Perhaps this by-election getting to him or could it be the Polls? Something certainly seems to be very distracting him.

A second SF seat in ground zero upper middle-class FG territory isn't just a black eye, it's the beginning of the end for Varadkar.

Whispers (and this is second-hand info) that internally he's regarded as a busted flush in FG, his hollow sneery Macronist style just isn't popular. It was fine as long as people thought the party was going in the right direction electorally, but it's going the opposite way.

He's done a great deal of damage to FG as a political movement (never mind twiddling his thumbs as the rolling sh*tbomb of housing annoys more people by the day). Many don't want to admit it as they all hopped aboard the hype train when he was elected, but they'll have a hard time shaking the image he created for the party. This is how he'll be regarded in time.

Larbre34

Annasopra wrote: »

Honestly I am beginning to think at the next election that all the small left parties will be crushed by SF dominance. SF will want 2nd seats where Labour, Soc Dems, PBP, Solidarity, Greens have seats and you may end with almost no left opposition at all. The current group of TDs from PBP, Solidarity, Greens, Soc Dems snd less so labour all benefited from SFs surpluses. If SF run many 2nd candidates there wont be spare surpluses. My thinking is that PBP/Sol, Labour, Soc Dems will all get 3ish seats and Greens 0. So it would be optimstic to think PBP could play that game.

Not so sure. One thing the far lefties and left independents have is name recognition, lots of media face time. That counts for a huge amount.

SF have 37 seats. Most people would be hard pressed to name 10 of them. Like me, they probably only rate half that number again as serious operators.

SF have had their protest vote. In this Dáil, they are being scrutinised for substance and talent. Unless they can start doing very much better for candidates than the likes of a Violet Anne Wynne or a Brian Stanley or a Rose Conway Walsh, I would suggest there is no certainty whatsoever of them taking out the Brid Smyths and the Gino Kennys to add second, or even first seats.

Certainly stunts like last night's will live long in voter's memories.

PhilOssophy

Yurt! wrote: »

This is a white noise angryman post. There's plenty of dunderheaded TDs on the government side of the house and always has been that are promoted way above their station if we're parsing through their education. Who can forget Bertie trying to make out he was a graduate of the London School of Economics when all he did was register for a course or Simon Harris the college dropout?

We're a parliamentary democracy, do you want the opposition to throw a ticker-tape parade for the government every day?

Immature white noise.

Did I say somewhere that there wasn't idiots in the government? Eoghan Murphy, James Reilly, etc are springing to mind as I have already pointed out in earlier posts.

But at least they aren't just sitting in the bleachers complaining and making a salary they wouldn't earn outside the 4 walls in the process. Its like the lad in every club, who complains about everything but does nothing. The opposition benches are full of these career complainers.

Put them in to bat and see how easy they find it.

RandomViewer

breezy1985 wrote: »

From what I can remember in the last GE Labour were the only party brave enough to say they would not lower taxes. Everyone everyone went for populism

Tackling the misuse of tax money is what they should be doing, cronies getting money for nothing has to stop, the likes of Redacted and Johnny the dwarf on the state tit is just wrong

timmyntc

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Did I say somewhere that there wasn't idiots in the government? Eoghan Murphy, James Reilly, etc are springing to mind as I have already pointed out in earlier posts.

But at least they aren't just sitting in the bleachers complaining and making a salary they wouldn't earn outside the 4 walls in the process. Its like the lad in every club, who complains about everything but does nothing. The opposition benches are full of these career complainers.

Put them in to bat and see how easy they find it.

The whole point of opposition is to complain about every thing the government does wrong. Thats literally the point of the job - if they agreed with all the governments actions then there would be no opposition.

Were FG or FF in opposition those people you mentioned would be doing just that, "sitting in the bleachers complaining and making a salary".
No party in this country (or any country) has a full bench of quality TDs, there are always plenty just there to make up the numbers. Its not unique to one party either, just look at all the candidates for this by-election.

PhilOssophy

timmyntc wrote: »

The whole point of opposition is to complain about every thing the government does wrong. Thats literally the point of the job - if they agreed with all the governments actions then there would be no opposition.

Were FG or FF in opposition those people you mentioned would be doing just that, "sitting in the bleachers complaining and making a salary".
No party in this country (or any country) has a full bench of quality TDs, there are always plenty just there to make up the numbers. Its not unique to one party either, just look at all the candidates for this by-election.

I will repeat myself, as I said already I know parties have plenty of useless people. Lets face it, what clever person would want to do the job of a TD.

But the difference is, when FG/FF in opposition, they complain about stuff and then at least try to do what they complained about in opposition. The easiest thing in the world is to sit in a PBP/SF/Independent Dail seat, have no desire whatsoever to govern, and trouser a salary for literally spending your life bickering and doing nothing to help.

Yurt2

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I will repeat myself, as I said already I know parties have plenty of useless people. Lets face it, what clever person would want to do the job of a TD.

But the difference is, when FG/FF in opposition, they complain about stuff and then at least try to do what they complained about in opposition. The easiest thing in the world is to sit in a PBP/SF/Independent Dail seat, have no desire whatsoever to govern, and trouser a salary for literally spending your life bickering and doing nothing to help.

This is more white noise. Seriously.

PhilOssophy

Yurt! wrote: »

This is more white noise. Seriously.

Is that the best you could offer as a counter argument? Lame.

breezy1985

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I will repeat myself, as I said already I know parties have plenty of useless people. Lets face it, what clever person would want to do the job of a TD.

But the difference is, when FG/FF in opposition, they complain about stuff and then at least try to do what they complained about in opposition. The easiest thing in the world is to sit in a PBP/SF/Independent Dail seat, have no desire whatsoever to govern, and trouser a salary for literally spending your life bickering and doing nothing to help.

What really puts me off most of those groups is they spend more time during elections making cheap attacks on the so called "fake left" parties like Labour just to win cheap votes rather than attack the actual right

Yurt2

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Is that the best you could offer as a counter argument? Lame.

Your argument isn't even an arguement in the first place. So there's nothing to do with it. It's literally white noise angryman stuff you're repeating from someone else.

You're heading for a SF government next time out btw. So I'm not sure how you'll express your white noise there.

timmyntc

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I will repeat myself, as I said already I know parties have plenty of useless people. Lets face it, what clever person would want to do the job of a TD.

But the difference is, when FG/FF in opposition, they complain about stuff and then at least try to do what they complained about in opposition. The easiest thing in the world is to sit in a PBP/SF/Independent Dail seat, have no desire whatsoever to govern, and trouser a salary for literally spending your life bickering and doing nothing to help.

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Is that the best you could offer as a counter argument? Lame.

The absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Just because SF and other opposition parties havent been in govt doesnt mean they would flip flop on every position (unlike FF/FG, who having been in govt and opposition, we know they only flipflop on some positions).

You are trying to use a total lack of evidence to support your point - you or I or anyone does not know what PBP/SF/Independents would do if in govt, so unless you can support your points you can stop posting.

Yurt2

breezy1985 wrote: »

What really puts me off most of those groups is they spend more time during elections making cheap attacks on the so called "fake left" parties like Labour just to win cheap votes rather than attack the actual right

I have an aversion to the alphabet soup parties for my own reasons, but Labour haven't been a Labour party for a couple of decades. They're like someone wearing an Atari t-shirt when Atari has been dead for years.

The zombification of the grand old parties of the left is a phenomenon all across Europe.

I don't know what individuals Aodhán Ó Ríordáin or Alan Kelly think about when they put their head to the pillow each evening, but it's not the conditions of working people of the country.

It's a hollowed out legacy brand.

PhilOssophy

timmyntc wrote: »

The absence of proof is not proof of absence.
Just because SF and other opposition parties havent been in govt doesnt mean they would flip flop on every position (unlike FF/FG, who having been in govt and opposition, we know they only flipflop on some positions).

You are trying to use a total lack of evidence to support your point - you or I or anyone does not know what PBP/SF/Independents would do if in govt, so unless you can support your points you can stop posting.

You won't tell me to stop posting, thank you. This is an opinion board and if you don't agree, tell me why I am wrong rather than telling me to stop posting.

How can I be expected to support a claim when SF had a perfect opportunity to put up and shut up after the last election and chose not to even make any attempt to form a government?

I stand by my original point - there are career opposition TD's who only ever want that - because being in government means making difficult and unpopular decisions.


If you have a problem with my opinion, that's your problem.

timmyntc

PhilOssophy wrote: »

You won't tell me to stop posting, thank you. This is an opinion board and if you don't agree, tell me why I am wrong rather than telling me to stop posting.

My opinion is there are career opposition TD's who only ever want that - because being in government means making difficult and unpopular decisions.

How can I be expected to support a claim when SF had a perfect opportunity to put up and shut up after the last election and chose not to even make any attempt to form a government?

If you have a problem with my opinion, that's your problem.

I have already told you why you are wrong. IIRC SF did attempt to form a government, PBP et al wouldnt go for it, FG would not, and neither would FF. The numbers weren't there. But dont let that get in the way of your SF bashing - which is not really relevant to this thread either.

PhilOssophy

timmyntc wrote: »

I have already told you why you are wrong. IIRC SF did attempt to form a government, PBP et al wouldnt go for it, FG would not, and neither would FF. The numbers weren't there. But dont let that get in the way of your SF bashing - which is not really relevant to this thread either.

I'm not bashing SF - I'm saying there are lots of TD's who are guilty of this. The most guilty being the former FF/FG ones who threw their toys out of the pram to spend their lives as Independents.

I don't think SF tried any harder than FF/FG did to form a government with them in all honesty.

But anyway, back to the subject.

Annasopra

Nominations closed

15 Candidates

https://www.dublincityreturningofficer.com/

blanch152

timmyntc wrote: »

I have already told you why you are wrong. IIRC SF did attempt to form a government, PBP et al wouldnt go for it, FG would not, and neither would FF. The numbers weren't there. But dont let that get in the way of your SF bashing - which is not really relevant to this thread either.

https://www.pbp.ie/open-letter-to-sinn-fein/


In fact it was the other way round. PBP wrote to Sinn Fein several times seeking talks, (see link for one example) but Sinn Fein never seriously responded. The problem for Sinn Fein was that PBP were the only party who were willing to talk to them. Nobody else wanted any truck with them.

blackwhite

Hadn’t heard that Cahill was running.

Herself and Barrett will be splitting the massive pool of right-wing conspiracy theorist votes

Brussels Sprout

blackwhite wrote: »

Hadn’t heard that Cahill was running.

Herself and Barrett will be splitting the massive pool of right-wing conspiracy theorist votes

There's a Renua candidate as well. She doesn't appear to have a twitter account so I can't tell how much of a Head The Ball she is.

Renua + IFP got 2.2% of the vote in the constituency last year. It'll be interesting to see if Renua + IFP + NP get higher than that this time around.

I have a sneaking suspicion that they will. That election was held prior to the Pandemic and I think there is a certain percentage of the population who have spent far too much time during lockdown reading conspiracy theories online who will be drawn to those parties.

Sam Russell

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There's a Renua candidate as well. She doesn't appear to have a twitter account so I can't tell how much of a Head The Ball she is.

Renua + IFP got 2.2% of the vote in the constituency last year. It'll be interesting to see if Renua + IFP + NP get higher than that this time around.

I have a sneaking suspicion that they will. That election was held prior to the Pandemic and I think there is a certain percentage of the population who have spent far too much time during lockdown reading conspiracy theories online who will be drawn to those parties.

Three similar candidates, pursuing similar agendas will get more votes than each would get if only one were to run. Each has voters that would give one a chance but not the others - surely they have a few non-political friends. However, it is unlikely that their combined vote will be in any way decisive.

This is a byelection with a quota of 50%, so any successful candidate will not get that quota without significant transfers. Where they come from will be important for the major parties. Of the fifteen candidates, at least 10 are no-hopers.

PhilOssophy

Sam Russell wrote: »

Of the fifteen candidates, at least 10 are no-hopers.

I reckon 12. Only 3 candidates have any hope of winning this - Geoghegan, Bacik and Boylan.

Sam Russell

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I reckon 12. Only 3 candidates have any hope of winning this - Geoghegan, Bacik and Boylan.

Just because you are not in the top three does not make you a no-hoper. Much can happen between now and election day.

Peregrine

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I reckon 12. Only 3 candidates have any hope of winning this - Geoghegan, Bacik and Boylan.

While Claire Byrne didn't have much of a chance of getting elected when she was nominated, she's been gaining ground whereas Bacik has been losing it. I don't think Byrne will win but I wouldn't put her in the same category as the rest.

Peregrine

Peregrine wrote: »

While Claire Byrne didn't have much of a chance of getting elected when she was nominated, she's been gaining ground whereas Bacik has been losing it. I don't think Byrne will win but I wouldn't put her in the same category as the rest.

Yeah, I put a fiver on Byrne last week, I don't really gamble but Paddy Power were offering 33/1 which seemed a bit nuts. She's 6/1 now.

I don't wanna be pushing gambling in people's faces either, but since we don't have polls, they're somewhat useful

No other big changes, Geoghegan still clear favourite.
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

PhilOssophy

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Yeah, I put a fiver on Byrne last week, I don't really gamble but Paddy Power were offering 33/1 which seemed a bit nuts. She's 6/1 now.

I don't wanna be pushing gambling in people's faces either, but since we don't have polls, they're somewhat useful

No other big changes, Geoghegan still clear favourite.
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

You must not have been the only one with the idea! I actually forgot her from my 3 above to be honest. But she's an outsider and not worth a punt at 6/1. At 33/1, I can see why you did it!

breezy1985

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Yeah, I put a fiver on Byrne last week, I don't really gamble but Paddy Power were offering 33/1 which seemed a bit nuts. She's 6/1 now.

I don't wanna be pushing gambling in people's faces either, but since we don't have polls, they're somewhat useful

No other big changes, Geoghegan still clear favourite.
https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

You clearly were not involved in the US election thread at around 3am on the night

Annasopra

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There's a Renua candidate as well. She doesn't appear to have a twitter account so I can't tell how much of a Head The Ball she is.

Renua + IFP got 2.2% of the vote in the constituency last year. It'll be interesting to see if Renua + IFP + NP get higher than that this time around.

I have a sneaking suspicion that they will. That election was held prior to the Pandemic and I think there is a certain percentage of the population who have spent far too much time during lockdown reading conspiracy theories online who will be drawn to those parties.

Shes running on an anti lockdown platform. All 3 of them are to an extent.