Dublin Bay South By-Election

Larbre34

Nothing about a Dublin Bay South by-election is going to kick this Government in the teeth. If it was in Meath or Cork or Wexford we might all be on tenderhooks, but it isn't. Geoghegan will walk it and the remaining interest is in anyone putting their hand up as a prospect for the GE in 2025.

Just looked at the Paddy Power odds for the by-election, apologies if this has already been posted. They seem to be pretty much convinced it's a contest, if it can be so-described, betwen Bacik and Geoghegan

https://www.paddypower.com/politics/irish-politics

James Geoghegan 8/13 (!)
Ivana Bacik 5/2
Lynn Boylan 7/2 (strange, IMO)
Claire Byrne 25/1

The rest of the pack are too far behind to merit a mention. I'm still surprised at Claire Byrne's odds, that's worth a fiver's punt. I understand that there is a kickback against the Centrist Greens, so maybe they have indeed shot themselves in the foot here.

Given that she and all her colleagues have been topping the polls in DBS, Paddy Power must know something that we don't. I wonder if they conduct polling?

Brussels Sprout

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Given that she and all her colleagues have been topping the polls in DBS, Paddy Power must know something that we don't. I wonder if they conduct polling?

There's a big difference between topping a poll in a multi-seat constituency and winning a by-election. You can do the former via your own supporters but you cannot do the latter. You either need voters from the other parties to lend you their vote directly or indirectly (via transfers)

As the junior partner in Government , The Greens are especially vulnerable and seen as a lightening rod to some sections of the electorate. As such they will fail to attract the transfers that will be necessary to win this by-election.

In last year's election they did quite well picking up transfers from PBP (eliminations) and SF (surpluses) via the Vote Left, Transfer Left slogan. The voters of those parties are unlikely to see them in the same light this time around.

L1011

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Given that she and all her colleagues have been topping the polls in DBS, Paddy Power must know something that we don't. I wonder if they conduct polling?

Topping polls before going in to Government and also in to control (with other parties) of the council. Both have severely damaged them electorally.

PhilOssophy

I cannot see the Greens winning this seat no matter what, Eamon Ryan has been useless as MOE.
I think James Geoghegan will need a good lead because transfers between Lab/SF could see him being overtaken once one one of the others is eliminated.

blackwhite

Byrne's odds seem to be the outlier alright.

If you look at 2020 GE and the 2019 LE, the Greens are consistently polling over 20%. Even factoring in a decline, they're nowhere near a 25/1 shot.

Byrne topped the poll in SE Inner City, and Chu topped the poll in Pembroke.

That said - need to be wary of reading too much into the LE results. Anyone legally resident within the LEA can vote in local elections, whilst in the Dail elections we restrict the franchise to only Irish or UK citizens resident in the constituency. Certainly in Pembroke and SEIC LEAs it's not a stretch to think there might have been a higher than expected proportion of voters who don't have a vote when it comes to Dail elections, and that might be skewing the Green vote upwards a bit in the Locals.




Party|2020 GE|2019 LE inc. K-R LEA|2019 LE excl. K-R LEA
Turnout|39,591|35,249|19,193
|||
FG|27.7%|19.9%|25.3%
Green|22.4%|26.4%|31.5%
SF|16.1%|8.1%|7.8%
FF|13.8%|10.8%|10.4%
Lab|7.9%|11.8%|12.4%
SD|4.6%|4.4%|1.8%
Others|7.5%|18.6%|10.8%



DBS splits the Kimmage-Rathmines with the Dublin South Central constituency, so I've shown the 2019 LE numbers including and excluding Kimmage-Rathmines.

Brussels Sprout

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

There's a big difference between topping a poll in a multi-seat constituency and winning a by-election. You can do the former via your own supporters but you cannot do the latter. You either need voters from the other parties to lend you their vote directly or indirectly (via transfers)

As the junior partner in Government , The Greens are especially vulnerable and seen as a lightening rod to some sections of the electorate. As such they will fail to attract the transfers that will be necessary to win this by-election.

I certainly agree with the lightening rod argument for frustration, some would say "mud-guard", but on the other hand, your argument (which I agree with) would seem to favour a Goldilocks candidate, neither too far right or left.

Byrne represents the most transfer-friendly party in the main running, possibly alongside Labour. A lot of the Chu controversy will have been forgotten in a few weeks, especially if Chu canvasses for Claire Byrne.

Byrne might still not win, but 25/1? It's gotta be closer than that, considering previous trends.

Augme

I just can't see how a path to victory for Claire Byrne. Realistically she would need to top the poll outright, and then rely on transfers from fianna fail and then for James Geoghan to be eliminated to seal her victory. Green party got 22% in the last election while Sinn Fein got 16% and Sinn Fein have a much stronger candidate profile wise, She is a blow-in though. I can see the Sinn Fein vote holding steady, if not increasing while I just can't see any chance the Green vote remains at that level or does better, and for Claire to win it would need to. I think that is bigger then a 25/1 shot.

The other possibility is that she transfer well from the left, but I can see that happening either.

For me Lynn Boylan is the best option price wise.

factnee

PhilOssophy wrote: »

I cannot see the Greens winning this seat no matter what, Eamon Ryan has been useless as MOE.
I think James Geoghegan will need a good lead because transfers between Lab/SF could see him being overtaken once one one of the others is eliminated.

What is your basis for believing that Lab/SF will transfer to one another?

Annasopra

A lot of green supporters will be angry at them for going into government. They just wont be in the last crucial 3 here and they wont get PBP transfers. Theres also a reason Baciks posters prominently display her Bike as well.

The way I see it Bacik, Boylan and Geogheghan are in the last 3 shake up. I cant see any candidate other than those 3 figuring strongly.

Of course long term By Elections often build a winnable seat for losing candidates so I could easily see all 3 being TDs at the next Dail too.

L1011

Boylan would be taking Andrews seat - albeit SF might not be too unhappy with that - if she got in at the next GE.

retalivity

Augme wrote: »

I just can't see how a path to victory for Claire Byrne. Realistically she would need to top the poll outright, and then rely on transfers from fianna fail and then for James Geoghan to be eliminated to seal her victory. Green party got 22% in the last election while Sinn Fein got 16% and Sinn Fein have a much stronger candidate profile wise, She is a blow-in though. I can see the Sinn Fein vote holding steady, if not increasing while I just can't see any chance the Green vote remains at that level or does better, and for Claire to win it would need to. I think that is bigger then a 25/1 shot.

The other possibility is that she transfer well from the left, but I can see that happening either.

For me Lynn Boylan is the best option price wise.

Isnt byrne a blow-in as well? Saw her in my local cafe in d8 a few days ago, a good bit away from DBS. Think she lives round SCR/harold's cross area

KevRossi

Byrne has lived and worked in DBS for a long time, she's hardly a 'blow-in'. Of all the candodates running she'd be the one who's been closest to the area over the past 10-15 years. I think the discussion around where a candidate lives or grew up is fairly non-sensical when it comes to Dublin constituencies.

She won't win and that's the point of her running; get a good result, but not good enough to get a seat and threaten Eamon Ryan's seat by splitting the vote next time out.

The 25/1 is way off, but it's an enticer that bookies put in to tempt you to put a bet on a horse that cannot win.

PhilOssophy

factnee wrote: »

What is your basis for believing that Lab/SF will transfer to one another?

Well 2 left leaning parties are much more likely to transfer to each other than to FG

RandomViewer

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Well 2 left leaning parties are much more likely to transfer to each other than to FG

Labour would be FGers who don't own nylon trousers,
SF are very soft left,

golfball37

Byrne is from Castlebar afaik

expectationlost

expectationlost wrote: »

she lives on north west side of Clonskeagh that is in DBS

Indo says Conroy lives a 1km outside DBS, https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/three-dublin-bay-south-by-election-candidates-earned-rental-income-as-landlords-40517849.html so she doesn't live in the address she gave in 2019 local elections anymore or did she use her parents address too?

expectationlost

retalivity wrote: »

Isnt byrne a blow-in as well? Saw her in my local cafe in d8 a few days ago, a good bit away from DBS. Think she lives round SCR/harold's cross area

her 2019 address for the elections is in DBS, just. Clanbrassil street is the western edge of DBS and she lives just off it inside DBS, a Portobello address.



Harolds Cross is in DBS btw

seligehgit

golfball37 wrote: »

Byrne is from Castlebar afaik

Sarah Durcan?

retalivity

expectationlost wrote: »

her 2019 address for the elections is in DBS, just. Clanbrassil street is the western edge of DBS and she lives just off it inside DBS, a Portobello address.



Harolds Cross is in DBS btw

Huh, i thought the border ran through camden st and rathmines, i stand corrected!

Annasopra

L1011 wrote: »

Boylan would be taking Andrews seat - albeit SF might not be too unhappy with that - if she got in at the next GE.

She can run elsewhere too

Marcusm

L1011 wrote: »

Boylan would be taking Andrews seat - albeit SF might not be too unhappy with that - if she got in at the next GE.

I’m sure they wouldn’t be unhappy to get a true SFer rather than rebadged FF following a scandal. The Eoin OBroin connection helps too but I have to say I am very disappointed in him today. Simply stating that all parties use door to door polling is not an excuse when compared to fraudulently misrepresenting themselves as an independent agency rather than political activists. I would have expected him to try and clear the position down and focus on the future. It’s just a very deceptive practice.

Thrashssacre

Justin barrett just threw his hat into the ring, should mean its a straight shoot between FG or the greens now as the only party he'll take votes from is SF surely.

L1011

Thrashssacre wrote: »

Justin barrett just threw his hat into the ring, should mean its a straight shoot between FG or the greens now as the only party he'll take votes from is SF surely.

He won't be taking votes from SF. And Labour have as much if not a lot more chance than the Greens here.


Barrett will be fighting for a split of the 2% cracked vote with Michael McGrath (no, not that one - the other one I won't dignify with a link, but he ran a fake 'newspaper' online for years) and any of the others that throw their hat in the ring. Those votes likely wouldn't go anywhere if the recipients weren't running and won't transfer outside that pool.

AndrewJRenko

Thrashssacre wrote: »

Justin barrett just threw his hat into the ring,

This one?

Smegging hell

L1011 wrote: »

He won't be taking votes from SF. And Labour have as much if not a lot more chance than the Greens here.


Barrett will be fighting for a split of the 2% cracked vote with Michael McGrath (no, not that one - the other one I won't dignify with a link, but he ran a fake 'newspaper' online for years) and any of the others that throw their hat in the ring. Those votes likely wouldn't go anywhere if the recipients weren't running and won't transfer outside that pool.

Yeah, NP will resent Aontú for being a more palatable option for socially conservative and pro-life voters - those few there are in bourgeois liberal DBS - and will hysterically denounce them as 'globalists'. They won't be a significant factor.

Larbre34

AndrewJRenko wrote: »

This one?

His is a child size however.

L1011

Barrett's election strapline is three words - two of them being "far" and "right".

Its like they're not even trying to hide it.

PhilOssophy

Are there any screwball candidates as yet?

KevRossi

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Are there any screwball candidates as yet?

Yeah. Deirdre Conroy is running for FF.

I'm actually looking forward to the televised debates. Pity Chu isn't running, I'd like to see her up against Justin Barrett for the laughs.