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Early July: Heatwave Potential

  • 01-07-2013 1:29am
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭


    About time for a new thread I think, hopefully I don't jinx it..

    Increasing signs over the past few days of another fine spell of weather from around the 5th of July onwards, still a few days away so of course being Ireland there's every chance it'll end up cool and wet but for the moment at least things are looking positive for some heat and hopefully plenty of sunshine

    By the 5th we have high pressure building northwards

    ECM1-120_zal0.GIF

    A few days later and we have the high centred over us which could lead to some very hot weather if it sticks around for a while

    ECM1-192_ssc0.GIF


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Harps wrote: »
    About time for a new thread I think, hopefully I don't jinx it..

    Increasing signs over the past few days of another fine spell of weather from around the 5th of July onwards, still a few days away so of course being Ireland there's every chance it'll end up cool and wet but for the moment at least things are looking positive for some heat and hopefully plenty of sunshine

    By the 5th we have high pressure building northwards

    ECM1-120_zal0.GIF

    A few days later and we have the high centred over us which could lead to some very hot weather if it sticks around for a while

    ECM1-192_ssc0.GIF

    Some good support from GFS too for hot weather at a similar timeframe


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭vickers209


    What sort.of temps would we be looking at ?? Hot enough for a few thunderstorms?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    vickers209 wrote: »
    What sort.of temps would we be looking at ?? Hot enough for a few thunderstorms?

    High 20's would be possible if that came off.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Mentioned this earlier last week alas its not going to be as sustained as looked possible at the time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    the 6z GFS is a rinse and repeat, showing again lovely big area of high pressure sitting on top of us next week. Really starting to firm up now, whether it will be a warm spell or something epic there's almost sure to be some decent weather in the offing.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    mike65 wrote: »
    Mentioned this earlier last week alas its not going to be as sustained as looked possible at the time.

    It looks even more promising today than it did before, what makes you think it won't be sustained? Both GFS and ECM are showing long-lasting period of high pressure dominated weather moving towards the reliable time-frame.


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭Keith96


    Met eireann outlook-

    Wednesday : There will be some patches of mist and drizzle about but overall it will be a mostly dry day with some bright or sunny spells. A mild, humid day with highest temperatures 17 to 21 degrees in moderate westerly winds.
    It will cloud over later with rain moving in from the Atlantic Wednesday night in fresh southwesterly winds.

    Thursday: The day will start cloudy with outbreaks of rain but clearing eastwards during the morning. Sunny spells Thursday afternoon and evening and dry apart from well scattered showers. Highest temperatures 15 to 20 degrees in fresh westerly winds.

    Friday: A mild and mainly dry day with sunny spells. Highest temperatures 16 to 20 degrees in light to moderate southwesterly breezes.

    Weekend: Mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds and becoming rather warm with temperatures rising to between 20 and 25 degrees in light breezes.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    It looks even more promising today than it did before, what makes you think it won't be sustained? Both GFS and ECM are showing long-lasting period of high pressure dominated weather moving towards the reliable time-frame.

    Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

    Rtavn3841.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,963 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Those lows seem to be dropping down occasionally but the high seems to be pushing them on quite quickly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Lucreto


    I am not getting the sun cream and BBQ stuff just yet. If is it anything like the winter charts they this can disappear at a moments notice.

    I have seen this before and it usually turns to overcast, humid with misty rain.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    mike65 wrote: »
    Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

    Rtavn3841.png

    C'mon now Mike, you should know that charts 16 days out are not the most reliable. ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    mike65 wrote: »
    Well I guess it depends on what you consider long lasting

    Rtavn3841.png

    That's a chart for 16 days time! Nothing like that will verify I'm sure, and even if that were to verify there is still nice area of High Pressure close by.

    The actual high itself is now showing itself establishing nicely on the 3 major models I follow, ECM, GFS and UKMO and is well supported by ensembles too. Let the high come into place before we worry about what occurs on July 17th.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    My idea of established is a few weeks, rather than a passing fancy :)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    mike65 wrote: »
    My idea of established is a few weeks, rather than a passing fancy :)

    Apart from being something that's very unlikely in this part of the world in the first place, that's also something that no model would be able to show realistically right now. We're looking at some potential warm/hot weather starting in around 7 days (which in itself is not in the reliable timeframe), so looking for when such a pattern might last for before breaking down is pointless at the moment.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    The latest 120 hour chart from UKMO seems to push the high further East and a low looks like it could swing up from the South, what do you guys think ???

    http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/profi/en/ukmo/ukmo.html


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Could not add the chart in the above post


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,017 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    .


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Aaaaah jez Met E just said now that the West and North coasts could see rain or drizzle over what was supposed to be a good weekend, thats it wont happen


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Off to the south-east of spain On Monday for 12 days, wouldnt ye know it would be the one time Ireland gets some nice potentially very warm weather!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,421 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Aaaaah jez Met E just said now that the West and North coasts could see rain or drizzle over what was supposed to be a good weekend, thats it wont happen

    Was it Gerry ?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭Keith96


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Aaaaah jez Met E just said now that the West and North coasts could see rain or drizzle over what was supposed to be a good weekend, thats it wont happen

    It was always likely the west would see some drizzle because of the low pressure nearby.But by Monday the entire country will be fine so dont start giving up! :):):):)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    This morning's runs are the single best set of charts I have seen for heat since I started looking at these things roughly four years ago. If the GFS 0z were to come off Ireland would be experiencing temperatures in the mid to twenties countrywide as early as this weekend.

    Oh let it be so.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    More incredible charts this morning! If these are still showing the same tomo evening then I will be full on with this!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    Sounds great guys - you know me, I'm a snow bunny, but I also love a bit of heat :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,497 ✭✭✭✭noodler


    Christ Mike, you have a seriously strict definition of 'lasting' considering you live in Ireland.

    I'd consider a full week's worth pretty amazing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,335 ✭✭✭nc6000


    Wow, this sounds good. How likely is it to happen?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Talking about 30 in the south/centre of England on the BBC already (hint - buy an umbrella)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Looking o so good for Ireland, high twenties a real possibility inland if the charts come to pass.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    For what it's worth the 0Z GFS shows temps reaching the mid 20's from around the 6th/7th and staying that way all the way during the rest of the run.

    Just for fun, at 300 hours, it's showing 24 at midnight.

    The op run was clearly at the upper end of the ensembles though so I wouldn't be surprised to see that go away again on the 06Z.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 878 ✭✭✭rainbowdash


    Before people start saying how great the postman clown from Donegal is I think it's important to point out that he did NOT predict a heat wave.


    "I'm not saying we'll have a heatwave, but we'll have a super summer."


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 814 ✭✭✭saggycaggy


    This is great news as I was "forced" to take next week off as holidays from work so we're heading home to Donegal for the week!!!

    Nothing like Donegal in good sunny weather:)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    GFS 6z maintaining the trend of epic weather from weekend on.


    Get in


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Atm it looks like some western areas and Northern Ireland could be plagued by cloud and outbreaks of rain around Saturday as the High moves in it seems to drag an Atlantic Front up with it(weak front)
    Warmth should start to build however in Southern and Eastern parts!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,114 ✭✭✭saintsaltynuts


    It's pissin' out boys and girls.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Atm it looks like some western areas and Northern Ireland could be plagued by cloud and outbreaks of rain around Saturday as the High moves in it seems to drag an Atlantic Front up with it(weak front)
    Warmth should start to build however in Southern and Eastern parts!

    Depends on the position of the high and the timing. GFS shows the rain just missing the northwest.

    pJVH3Qk.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,473 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Down in courttown now and its horrible out misty sort of drizzle falling and it quiet chilly with a temp of only 11c


  • Registered Users Posts: 278 ✭✭J6P


    Looks fairly nailed on for a hot spell and the North West could see the highest temps...



    Rtavn15617.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 68 ✭✭Keith96


    J6P wrote: »
    Looks fairly nailed on for a hot spell and the North West could see the highest temps...



    Rtavn15617.png
    It all depends on the postion of the high.Tempeatures are almost impossible to predict after five days


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,355 ✭✭✭✭Larbre34


    Currently moderate rain on the South Dublin Coast, a toasty 13C

    However, UK Met have nailed their colours to the heatwave mast, certainly for England and Wales throughout July, hopefully some or all of Ireland will get a piece of the action, 4 weeks of 25C would do very nicely

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=regionalForecast&fcTime=1372719600


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,760 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    If this works out as progged on the models this morning, we could be looking at some of the highest temps in this country since the epic summer of '06:cool:


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,322 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    So excited!! :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 197 ✭✭pp_me


    This looks really promising! Think I will book the week off from work!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Barbecue Summer Alert!
    UK Outlook for Sunday 7 Jul 2013 to Tuesday 16 Jul 2013:

    Conditions look likely to be fine, dry and settled across the UK throughout much of this period, with some long sunny spells by day. It may often be cloudier across some north western parts of the UK with a risk of some rain, particularly later next week. There is also a low risk of an afternoon heavy shower developing over hills through next week. Away from the far north west, it will be warm or very warm, and locally hot across central and southern areas by the middle part of next week. Towards the end of the period, it may turned more unsettled across northern areas, with occasional rain or showers. Elsewhere, the fine, dry and warm weather is expected to continue across many southern parts.

    Updated: 1104 on Tue 2 Jul 2013
    UK Outlook for Tuesday 16 Jul 2013 to Tuesday 30 Jul 2013:

    There are signals that the dry and settled weather from the first half of the month should continue across most parts of the UK during at least the first half of this period. This means rainfall should be below average, with mainly above-average temperatures and above-average sunshine amounts.

    Updated: 1141 on Mon 1 Jul 2013

    just to add this from the indo
    The weekend will be mainly dry with sunny spells and light winds, and temperatures rising to between 20C and 25C.

    "It will be unsettled for the rest of the week, with fairly frequent episodes of rain, but with some sunny spells ahead," said Mr Rogers.

    His colleague Gerald Fleming raised the prospect of the good weather continuing into next week: "With the fine period in the beginning of June, and the high pressure, definitely something is possible after the weekend and into next week."

    Met Eireann statistics showed last month's highest temperature was 25.4C in Newport, Co Mayo, on June 8.

    Dublin stations reported their driest June in seven years with six consecutive days of sun from June 4-9.

    However, Valentia Observatory, Kerry, had its wettest in six years with a recorded 138.1mm of rain.

    How much sun is officially needed to be a day with sun? 6 days on the bounce seems very modest a total.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,119 ✭✭✭compsys


    mike65 wrote: »
    Barbecue Summer Alert!





    just to add this from the indo



    How much sun is officially needed to be a day with sun? 6 days on the bounce seems very modest a total.

    That was a misprint. They meant to say 6 consecutive days with over 14 hours of sun (which is pretty decent for Ireland).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,693 ✭✭✭flutered


    nice and breezy here at the butt of the galtees, most importantly the wind has changed to the south.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    More of the same from the 12Z GFS, things get going over the weekend then high pressure centred over us for the foreseeable future. Still too early to know if there'll be any low cloud trapped under the high but all we can do is hope

    gfs-0-138_nyf0.png


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,972 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    The F1 is looking more promising again, could we yet see two weeks of warm, dry, sunny weather?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,174 ✭✭✭pauldry


    mike65 wrote: »
    The F1 is looking more promising again, could we yet see two weeks of warm, dry, sunny weather?

    It looks as good as I've seen since the last time it was wrong

    Very promising though I would say eearly 20s for sure


  • Hosted Moderators Posts: 23,145 ✭✭✭✭beertons


    mike65 wrote: »
    The F1 is looking more promising again, could we yet see two weeks of warm, dry, sunny weather?

    Mike, i'm holding you to that. I'm on hols to Kerry the week after next. If i get wet, i'll be looking for you.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,720 ✭✭✭Hal1


    Oh yeah azores hp ftw :).


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