Autumn 2018 - General discussion

Gonzo wrote: »

plenty of rain between now and the final second of November 2018 yet to come. So far at Dunsany, this November is certainly one of the wettest Novembers I can remember.

So far it's the second wettest month of the year, March was also extremely wet this year and we finished with 159.1mm of rain for March. November 2015 has a total of 144.3mm of rain.

If we get another 30mm of rain over the next 4 days, we may beat November 2015. November 2009 is the one to beat tho with over 200mm of rain in that month, I don't think we'll even get close to beating that this month.

I'm getting side swiped by a fairly big shower. Gonzo, it looks like the shower may pass over you. Possibly just to your south but I think it has your name on it. Possibly another couple of millimetres for from it.

pp_me wrote: »

No worries, just thinking out loud. Looking very wet down this side of the country and November is not quite done yet

Here's a table of the wettest Novembers on record for selected Irish stations that I promised.

*closed station
**the historical database does not cover the whole station's recorded history so far, therefore uncertain on if it's the actual wettest November at the station

November 2018 does not look like beating any after a quick check at their current totals even the southeast station of Johnstown Castle which has seen a very wet month, still somewhat pales in comparison to the exceptional wet nature of November 2009.



Data comes from Met Éireann.

Torrential rain most of the night here and still falling

A blustery night across the west

11pm reports
Mace head gusting 44 knots
Knock 34 knots
Belmullet 34 knots
Finner 33 knots

sryanbruen wrote: »

In summary,

September - A fairly mild and mixed month. Likely to be on the relatively wetter than average side but no big deviation.
October - Settled and fairly mild again with no big deviation from average. Lot of quiet weather.
November - Very wet, mild and stormy. Plenty of gales and rain.

To start this post off, a review of my Autumn 2018 forecast.

Autumn 2018 overall was a relatively cool season largely due to October and the cold end to that month. It was the coldest Autumn since 2012 though that is not saying much as Autumn has been a mild season lately - and for much of the past few decades too. It was dry for most largely again down to October though November's rain more than compensated for some to make it a fairly wet Autumn. November was the wettest in the south and east of Ireland since 2009.

Both September and especially October were colder than I anticipated though in fairness, I did say no significant deviation from average either way. November was mild and I forecasted it to be mild.

Both September and October were on the drier than average side though September was wet for some. I forecasted September to be fairly wet and October to be dry with a lot of quiet weather. The October prediction verified perfectly whilst September could have been better but for a long range forecast, I think it did well. November was forecast to be very wet and stormy. Whilst it may not have been as wet as I anticipated going by my forecast, it still was a very wet month in parts of the south and east of the country so I think that did ok.

Overall, I think I'll give my Autumn 2018 forecast a 7/10. I'm very happy with it especially for the settled October prediction and November.

Autumn 2018 records for synoptic stations:

Maximum: 25.1c at Phoenix Park on September 2nd
Minimum: -5.0c at Mt. Dillon on November 2nd
Wettest day: 34.1mm at Valentia Observatory on November 27th

How do these temperature records look in the historical record back to 1986? See the graph below.



2018 stands just about in the middle with not a particularly low or high min/max.

Data comes from Met Éireann.