Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 11:55am #1

From Monday night to perhaps Wednesday we are in for some raw weather as a strong Northwesterly flow introduces some polar air to Western shores. Because of the strong gradient it will quickly pass over the Warmer Atlantic and get a slight Maritime mix at lower levels but there should be less modification of the airmass.

This has all the ingredients of thunder activity and the spawning of comma features.

A Polar Low is not out of the equation as a capsule of -40 air at 500mb gets drags off Greenland. There is some 510 true polar dam air at the beginning that helps to feed this North westerly flow.

[IMG][/img]

An interesting mix of heavy rain sleet and snow showers especially over higher ground is very likely and combined with the strong winds would give whiteout conditions at times. So Thundersnow and blizzards are in there for parts of higher Ulster and Connaught. Munster could see something similar AND parts of the Midlands in the strong flow.

[IMG][/img]

[IMG][/img]

Very interesting setup for the North and Western half of Ireland. As mentioned a Strong gradient so Midlands could see some wintry falls too.

This is a watch for sure. There's also a strong risk of travel disruption to areas mentioned.

milli milli · 02-02-2013 12:02pm

Oh wow! This sounds great. Whiteout please!

Keep safe everyone

chris2007 · 02-02-2013 12:06pm

Anything for the east coast especially dublin next week in the terms of sleet and snow shower activity?

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 12:10pm

milli milli wrote: »

Oh wow! This sounds great. Whiteout please!

Keep safe everyone

What's your location?

Higher ground for any whiteout potential.

Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.

200motels · 02-02-2013 12:18pm

Redsunset wrote: »

What's your location?

Higher ground for any whiteout potential.

Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.

I think you can safely dismiss the east and south east in the north westerly setup.

DOCARCH · 02-02-2013 12:20pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Just to give the East a mention. We can't be sure how far the showers will travel inland and they will be dying as the do , so I wouldn't be getting the sleigh out just yet.

Yeah, in this type of set up, you really need a trough or some other more organised band of showers to get them all the way to Dublin!

It can and does happen but it can make for painful watching as showers fizzle by the time they cross the Shannon.

Having said that, only snow here last winter was from a brief shower from the NW. Gave a dusting that lasted about an hour (before the sun fried it!).

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 12:24pm

Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.

yorlum11 · 02-02-2013 12:41pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.

They will survive.We usually watch on when the streamers roll in off the Irish sea.Its early in the set up and if it sets in an easterly is more likely.Hopefully something for everyone in the long run.

leahyl · 02-02-2013 1:11pm

Wait a minute am I reading this correctly? Cork has more chance of snow than Dublin with this "event"?! Score! :-D

oterra · 02-02-2013 1:12pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Yes that is my feeling too about the East and South East, very unlikely but get a polar low and you never know. Weather will do what it likes, when it likes.

Note the tiny bit of optimism I've left there so as not to shatter hopes.

Dec 2010's snow as far as I remember started from a North/North Westerly and didn't effect the east til 4 or 5 days into the cold spell. I remember us easties were egging on a Northeasterly set up which eventually kicked in.
I'd be happy enough with that outcome at a smaller scale(not to be greedy), just enough to greet the Spring with a bitterly Cold handshake in March!:eek:

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 1:18pm

leahyl wrote: »

Wait a minute am I reading this correctly? Cork has more chance of snow than Dublin with this "event"?! Score! :-D

Nope the Cork snow shield is working fine.

Ah I wouldn't be getting too excited leahyl. You have a better chance Yes in a Northwesterly set up before the tide turns again.

ninebeanrows · 02-02-2013 1:24pm

Yep a real nice slice of polar air in this WNW

Some parts of the west could get smashed.

Usually these showers die out before they reach the east coast however they probably have more chance of being snow if they do reach it.

milli milli · 02-02-2013 1:38pm

Redsunset wrote: »

What's your location?

Higher ground for

County sligo. Fingers crossed

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 02-02-2013 1:49pm

Nice for Tuesday morning

patneve2 · 02-02-2013 1:50pm

Still looking very good for the NW, looking like there will be some very hefty showers in that NW flow. Latest GFS 500 hPa temps for Tuesday 06 shows sub -40 temps. Showers then might turn sleetier/more to rain as warmer uppers come into play later on on Tuesday. I'm sure some members of this forum will get lying snow Monday night.

patneve2 · 02-02-2013 1:52pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Still looking very good for the NW, looking like there will be some very hefty showers in that NW flow. Latest GFS 500 hPa temps for Tuesday 06 shows sub -40 temps. Showers then might turn sleetier/more to rain as warmer uppers come into play later on on Tuesday. I'm sure some members of this forum will get lying snow Monday night.

Tuesday 500 hPa

Elmer Blooker · 02-02-2013 1:56pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Yep a real nice slice of polar air in this WNW

Some parts of the west could get smashed.

Usually these showers die out before they reach the east coast however they probably have more chance of being snow if they do reach it.

The famous snowstorm of April 1st 1917 was obviously a polar low yet I've never heard it described as a polar low event. I presume little or nothing was known about polar lows in those days when meteorology was very primitive and of course polar lows only show up on satellites as they are impossible to forecast. The heaviest snow reported in this 1917 storm was in Cos Clare and Mayo. I don't think next week will be anywhere near 1917, look at the big area of high pressure to the NW.

whitebriar · 02-02-2013 3:21pm

DOCARCH wrote: »

Yeah, in this type of set up, you really need a trough or some other more organised band of showers to get them all the way to Dublin!

It can and does happen but it can make for painful watching as showers fizzle by the time they cross the Shannon.

Having said that, only snow here last winter was from a brief shower from the NW. Gave a dusting that lasted about an hour (before the sun fried it!).

The strength of the wind is key too,the strongest,then the more likely Dublin see's showers and those should be snow.
Rule of thumb is simple really,very very simple,would you see showers in the summer or any other time in this type of flow?
Yes,is the likely answer albeit with some land convection too.

There's whopping possibilities over a 48hr period for whopping clumps of precip to develop in that fast flow.
The atlantic is a much bigger shower breeding ground (usually rain) than the Irish sea obviously.
Enter Stormy fast super cold air in the flow like this set up and all bets are off.
Hilly parts of Sligo,Mayo and Donegal doing best.

Total nowcast/radar/satelite watch elsewhere.

patneve2 · 02-02-2013 3:30pm

There is some potential for a few flurries or the odd moderate shower midnight Monday and on into Tuesday morning for the East. Another matter for the North and West - that's where all the fun will be. Will be absolutely bitter in that Gale force NW wind with heavy hail, sleet and snow showers. Showers will probably turn to rain/sleet below 300 metres come Tuesday afternoon (warmer uppers)

Pangea · 02-02-2013 3:39pm

Any chance of this becoming a widespread lower ground event?
Snow for higher ground, getting sick of hearing that phrase!

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 3:45pm

Pangea wrote: »

Any chance of this becoming a widespread lower ground event?
Snow for higher ground, getting sick of hearing that phrase!

Of course. High ground will always be favourite for most accumulation and disruption.

patneve2 · 02-02-2013 3:46pm

I think that the window for snow on lower ground is midnight monday onto about 12:00 Tuesday. Obviously better chances the further inland you are. Would be surprised if places like Letterkenny, Derry or inland Mayo didn't see even 2-3cm of lying snow. Will be a very interesting event in those areas regardless of accumulating snow or not anyways. Inland and higher areas of Galway, Clare, Limerick etc might see something also especially if the showers are heavy

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 3:54pm

Those showers could be very heavy in thundery downpours but will be fast moving in a strong flow so brief blizzards aplenty look to be the order. However get streamers going strong and you could be buried under them while your 10 mile down the road friend sees sod all. Like Whitebriar says this is a radar/satellite watch.

Come on you Polar Lows.......

DanRu · 02-02-2013 4:21pm

I know polar lows are very difficult to predict but what amount of notice would we have time wise ?

DOCARCH · 02-02-2013 4:32pm

DanRu wrote: »

I know polar lows are very difficult to predict but what amount of notice would we have time wise ?

Maybe 12 hours or so, usually no more than 24 hours? They tend to develop quite quickly.

force eleven · 02-02-2013 4:49pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Nice for Tuesday morning

Guess where I am? Snow Shield on full power....

cyclops999 · 02-02-2013 5:15pm

t|nt|n wrote: »

Nice for Tuesday morning

Typical detours around Athlone as usual:mad:

Darwin · 02-02-2013 5:21pm

I wouldn't pay any attention to those precipitation forecasts, they are at best a vague indication of where snow might fall.

Redsunset · 02-02-2013 5:43pm

They are useless charts. Don't bother your heads with them.

Deank · 02-02-2013 6:04pm

In percentage terms what is the likelihood of Kildare seeing some snow next week, particularly North Kildare?

whitebriar · 02-02-2013 6:09pm

Deank wrote: »

In percentage terms what is the likelihood of Kildare seeing some snow next week, particularly North Kildare?

High.

sully2010 · 02-02-2013 6:14pm

Deank wrote: »

In percentage terms what is the likelihood of Kildare seeing some snow next week, particularly North Kildare?

0%, it will be the fires of hell round your way, look at your post number, you've jinxed it :P

Geomy · 02-02-2013 7:49pm

How will Clare do ?

ninebeanrows · 02-02-2013 7:58pm

Smashing ECM tonight and consistent from this morning.

Shows our northerly clinging on and then a reload from the east

We get to this by T192hrs

Deank · 02-02-2013 8:53pm

sully2010 wrote: »

0%, it will be the fires of hell round your way, look at your post number, you've jinxed it :P

How does post #30 jinx anything???

ElectroJazz · 02-02-2013 8:56pm

Deank wrote: »

How does post #30 jinx anything???

I think he was talking about your post count, that was your 666th post on boards.

pad199207 · 02-02-2013 8:56pm

Deank wrote: »

How does post #30 jinx anything???

it was post number 666 on your profile count!

666 the year of the devil and also the number of the devil.... :cool:

Deank · 02-02-2013 9:04pm

pad199207 wrote: »

it was post number 666 on your profile count!

666 the year of the devil and also the number of the devil.... :cool:

Ah totally missed that

well then we'll get devil snow, it'll be thunder snow with freezing fire and brimstone thrown in for good measure

lucernarian · 02-02-2013 10:31pm

Cold air passing over warm water is perfect for snow showers to form. Thunderstorms are a different beast however. Rising, humid air doesn't have to rise that far for clouds and showers to form. It has to reach much greater heights to form thunderstorms. There has to be atmospheric instability and here's a chart which suggests there's a reasonable chance of that happening on Tuesday morning: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn6611.png

I'd look at Estofex to see if any alerts are issued for Ireland over Monday and Tuesday!

http://www.estofex.org/

maquiladora · 02-02-2013 11:23pm

It looks to me like a couple of hours of low level snowfall might be possible if things are on the right side of marginal, in the right places. The bigger picture looks like a wet and windy one. I'm not sure what all the excitement is about beyond that.

In the longer term those ECM FI charts are just as worthless as the ECM FI charts from last month that promised the moon and stars and delivered a low level snizzlefest in the end.

Pangea · 02-02-2013 11:59pm

maquiladora wrote: »

It looks to me like a couple of hours of low level snowfall might be possible if things are on the right side of marginal, in the right places. The bigger picture looks like a wet and windy one. I'm not sure what all the excitement is about beyond that.

The fact that snow is on the way in places, and this month was earmarked by M.T. as potentially being 'the month'. Id say theres plenty of reasons to be excited.
Met.ie expecting it to get even colder by end of the week.

Redsunset · 03-02-2013 12:27am

maquiladora wrote: »

It looks to me like a couple of hours of low level snowfall might be possible if things are on the right side of marginal, in the right places. The bigger picture looks like a wet and windy one. I'm not sure what all the excitement is about beyond that. In the longer term those ECM FI charts are just as worthless as the ECM FI charts from last month that promised the moon and stars and delivered a low level snizzlefest in the end.

Yeah wet and windy for many but as stated in OP. It's mostly higher ground Ulster and Connaught that could experience some difficult conditions.

For us it is not much of a big deal but yeah it's interesting weather that has many possibilities.

I for one would love to be in Donegal watching some thundersnow moving horizontal in very strong gusts.

IMBY I will just be pleased for those experiencing not so every day weather.

And watching the satellite for any formation of comma features or the merging of showers to form front like characteristics. I could go on. ......

M.T. Cranium · 03-02-2013 9:54am

The later Monday - Tuesday event could produce squalls of hail as well as snow almost anywhere as the air mass will be violently unstable, 850 mb temps are shown on various models in the -6 to -9 C range, sea temperatures are 8-10 C, so this air mass arrives with very steep lapse rates. Expect long-fetch streamers that manage to find ways through to the east coast at times (oriented from about 280 deg with some oscillations).

Wednesday it's possible that an enhanced trough will rotate around the low (by then into the southern North Sea close to Holland-Belgium coasts) and this could renew the mixed wintry showers and push winds around to NNE for a time so possibly Irish Sea streamers heading down the Wicklow coast (heavy snow potential there would be on higher slopes probably, but there could be brief falls of heavy snow or hail closer to sea level).

The more severe cold scenario for later in the period (mainly Saturday to mid-month) looks plausible to me, but models are not locked into it yet. The GFS has switched to more agreement with the European today.

This could be a moderately big deal or a major big deal, hard to say, but I doubt it will be "nothing much" overall.

Oscar Bravo · 03-02-2013 12:30pm

A Yellow warning issued at 1000 by Met Eireann,i must say i like the new system....its there way of ramping!!
Weather Advisory for Ireland
Very strong W to NW winds. Low temperatures and wintry showers of hail and snow expected during Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Potential for disruption aided by high Atlantic waves.

Issued:
03 February 2013 10:00

Valid:
04 February 2013 22:00 to 06 February 2013 23:59

peasant · 03-02-2013 1:29pm

Reading between the lines, it sounds like people living at low elevations won't be in for much lying snow but for a whole lot of horrendous weather

Gonzo · 03-02-2013 2:10pm

basically the last cold spell all over again except it's coming in off the atlantic rather than sourced from the UK. Hopefully this will be short-lived, still waiting in hope for the real thing to build from the East.

Red Pepper · 03-02-2013 2:16pm

Met Eireann farming forecast looks exciting. Looks like drier and colder next weekend so most of the snow should fall midweek. I am hoping to go hill walking next weekend so hoping Saturday will be nice and dry.

whitebriar · 03-02-2013 2:16pm

possibly snow on high ground according to Gerry there,so does that mean there's according to Gerry, a possibility showers could fall as rain on high ground?
That's the biggest criticism,I have with that guys forecasting during cold spells.
Its mis information to suggest high ground will see rain in some of the showers period.
If you live above 450ft in Donegal,Sligo or Mayo as a lot of people do,those showers will be snow by monday evening and certainly tuesday and wenesday.
At one stage he said possibility of snow at night...

I know there's a met only thread but the current tv forecast is relevant to this thread.

patneve2 · 03-02-2013 2:24pm

whitebriar wrote: »

possibly snow on high ground according to Gerry there,so does that mean there's according to Gerry, a possibility showers could fall as rain on high ground?
That's the biggest criticism,I have with that guys forecasting during cold spells.
Its mis information to suggest high ground will see rain in some of the showers period.
If you live above 450ft in Donegal,Sligo or Mayo as a lot of people do,those showers will be snow by monday evening and certainly tuesday and wenesday.
At one stage he said possibility of snow at night...

I know there's a met only thread but the current tv forecast is relevant to this thread.

Maybe they are taking the mild sector into account, could push the snow line right up to 250-300 metres later on Tuesday

rc28 · 03-02-2013 2:26pm

whitebriar wrote: »

possibly snow on high ground according to Gerry there,so does that mean there's according to Gerry, a possibility showers could fall as rain on high ground?
That's the biggest criticism,I have with that guys forecasting during cold spells.
Its mis information to suggest high ground will see rain in some of the showers period.
If you live above 450ft in Donegal,Sligo or Mayo as a lot of people do,those showers will be snow by monday evening and certainly tuesday and wenesday.
At one stage he said possibility of snow at night...

I know there's a met only thread but the current tv forecast is relevant to this thread.

He's pretty bad all right, he genuinely has an aversion to saying the word 'snow'.;)

Thank god for Evelyn and Siobhan Ryan etc.

Also, kudos to the Met for putting in place the new warning system - far easier to understand the threat posed and brings it into line with other European countries.

whitebriar · 03-02-2013 2:39pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Maybe they are taking the mild sector into account, could push the snow line right up to 250-300 metres later on Tuesday

Well if they were,they should have that bit of 6hr detail in the forecast but No , I think its a Gerry thing,well documented over the years on this forum.
He uses the phrase 'possibly' snow on high ground in nearly all cold spells meaning he's saying there could be rain on high ground at times when in a lot of the cold spells there won't.

I'm going to lay off my criticism of his script though as to be fair,when people see the snow,they'll say t'was forecast.
Unless of course he goes on with this kind of ridiculous stuff in say a -10 850 northeasterly streamer set up?

Risk Of Severe Wintry Conditions With Strong Winds. (High Risk-Ulster, Connaught)

Comments