Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

BEASTERLY · 09-12-2010 3:24pm #1

Hi all, now that a thaw is on it might be time to look at the next opportunity to see some more cold towards the end of next week. We should start to see a slow cool down from Sunday onwards. There is some potential that we will see some severe cold towards the end of next week.

Although there those seem to be a downgrade in the main models today it is still in FI so its still all to play for. Here is some shots from this morning's ECM:

Joe Bastardi seems to think were in for it:

THURSDAY MORNING
PREPARATION FOR RENEWAL OF EXTREME COLD FROM FRANCE TO SCANDINAVIA AND WEST THROUGH THE UK SHOULD BE MADE.
I am hopeful (prayerful) that the coming cold wave that will follow what thaw there is in the northwest will have the populace prepared. While it is true I have had a little fun with those that don't see eye-to-eye with me on the issue of AGW, the coming cold, in the wake of the stress that has already been put on the populace of the northwest part of Europe, is nothing to joke about.
The current cold will shift southeast for a while, before the re-establishment of the cold pool back where it was in the past two weeks. This will allow people to have a few days of milder weather in the U.K. and Ireland. Germany is liable to take the brunt of the whole thing, for while there are a few days of warming in the northwest, the cold shifting southeast centers over them, and when it reloads a bit farther west, it is over them.
While I realize it's open for debate, the patterns that are developing are part of what I described would start to happen a few years ago when the combination of oceanic, solar and even seismic cycles (the last one being the biggest wild card) began to take effect. The coming years will tell who is right and who is wrong. The true shame here, though, is that people were brainwashed into thinking such things could not happen anymore, and it's almost dastardly that the ones that did the brainwashing are now claiming it's because they were right (we go from saying it won't occur because of something, to it is occurring because of what was supposed to prevent it from occurring). In any case, it is my sincere hope that folks in the targeted area do not take this lightly. If I am overdone in some places, all the better. There will be a price to pay in hardship for this, and in studying the whole pattern that is in front of western and northern Europe for the next 15 days (the shot of cold into the south and east comes and goes, but when it comes anew after the New Year, it may remain), the bitter pill to swallow for not being prepared for such things is as nasty as the cold itself.
Be ready!
Ciao for now. ***

Even with the downgrade in the models, it is still a spell which could turn out to be prolonged and severe. The best place to get info on this is to keep checking in on M.T Cranium's daily forecasts and to check here for updates from some of our other regular experts.

If it looks like where really going to get hit hard it might be an idea to use the thaw time to stock up.:)

gbee · 09-12-2010 3:27pm

Jees, it looks like the battle of the bulge all over again!

kstand · 09-12-2010 3:29pm

Beasterly, where can I find MT Craniums daily forecasts?

09-12-2010 3:31pm

Nothing is set in stone by a long shot yet.
All we know is,we are on the cold side of the jetstream which increases the likelyhood of northerly and Easterly winds for the duration of that set up.

John Hammond [ukmo] in an interview on morning Ireland reiterated this ie cold to very cold from next week on.
However subtlety's could mean cold,dry and cloudy for the duration of the spell part 2 or it could mean armageddon snowfalls.

BEASTERLY · 09-12-2010 3:32pm

Just to add that because the charts are all over the place at the moment it is hard to say where the snow potential is most likely to be. Although northern coasts look like being most in the line of fire from any showery outbreaks. Although a slightly more north easterly tendancy will see sreamers getting going in the Irish sea(again) putting the east coast at risk.

Happy Days:D

09-12-2010 3:33pm

kstand wrote: »

Beasterly, where can I find MT Craniums daily forecasts?

his thread is one of the stuck threads at the top of the foum.
He is based in Western Canada and does a daily forecast ,sometimes updated later in the day and contributes aswell to the snow threads here.

Liamario · 09-12-2010 3:34pm

So basically we are talking about the start of the third ice age?

Storm 10 · 09-12-2010 3:35pm

Dont know about you guys but I am sick of this cold weather, wish we could have a good storm instead

:D

BEASTERLY · 09-12-2010 3:35pm

kstand wrote: »

Beasterly, where can I find MT Craniums daily forecasts?

It's a thread that is stickied here in the weather forum.

Bjorn Bored. · 09-12-2010 3:39pm

guess i better get those winter tyres after all

triple-M · 09-12-2010 3:42pm

Bjorn Bored. wrote: »

guess i better get those winter tyres after all

likewise

Brenireland · 09-12-2010 3:44pm

Nothing to worry about here now that the Thaw has set in @ this stage,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:

gbee · 09-12-2010 3:54pm

Brenireland wrote: »

,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:

I wouldn't call that a Royal Flush tbh. We traditionally get our worst winter weather in January. This year we will have colder land from the early shock, so whatever weather we get in the coming months, it will be exaggerated a bit.

Use the thaw to stock-up.

Brenireland · 09-12-2010 3:59pm

gbee wrote: »

I wouldn't call that a Royal Flush tbh. We traditionally get our worst winter weather in January. This year we will have colder land from the early shock, so whatever weather we get in the coming months, it will be exaggerated a bit.

Use the thaw to stock-up.

Stock up for?,Look once a thaw sets in after a cold 2/3 weeks of the start of a very cold winter You can safely say that their will NOT be anymore Snow/or temps below -10 until next winter.

Pangea · 09-12-2010 3:59pm

Brenireland wrote: »

Nothing to worry about here now that the Thaw has set in @ this stage,we can safely say the harshest period of our winter weather has passed.:cool:

Brenireland wrote: »

Stock up for?,Look once a thaw sets in after a cold 2/3 weeks of the start of a very cold winter You can safely say that their will NOT be anymore Snow/or temps below -10 until next winter.

Nonsense Its not safe to say that the harshest period of winter weather has passed, its only the 9th of december , havent you read the thread title. If anything this cold period now passing is a sign of things to come.

Brenireland · 09-12-2010 4:05pm

Pangea wrote: »

Nonsense Its not safe to say that the harshest period of winter weather has passed, its only the 9th of december , havent you read the thread title. If anything this cold period now passing is a sign of things to come.

The remainder of this winter will be mild & wet with the return of our westerly winds,No more Harsh weather.
I am afraid all of the top forecasters are saying the same so I am probably correct.

Pangea · 09-12-2010 4:09pm

Brenireland wrote: »

The remainder of this winter will be mild & wet with the return of our westerly winds,No more Harsh weather.
I am afraid all of the top forecasters are saying the same so I am probably correct.

All the top forecasters??
Im afraid not , you obviously havent read M.T. Craniums winter forecast.
You obviously have not been keeping up to date with other long range forecasts. BBC , Met Uk all have cold weather coming back for the remainder of the month with temperatures going to be well below average.
I can safely say that there will be -10 tempertures before the winter is out.
Im just looking forward to quoting your post once we get more of the freezing weather.

nacho libre · 09-12-2010 4:09pm

you may well be right about it not being as cold, but of course it doesn't need to be quite as cold for it to be fairly snowy. we may not even get as much snow from now on- that's-quite likely actually, but to rule out snow altogether from now on is ridiculous given what has been happening to the jetstream of late, and the nao being in negative territory

Iancar29 · 09-12-2010 4:10pm

Pangea wrote: »

Nonsense Its not safe to say that the harshest period of winter weather has passed, its only the 9th of december , havent you read the thread title. If anything this cold period now passing is a sign of things to come.

+1!

Stevek101 · 09-12-2010 4:11pm

OwenC is back?

nacho libre · 09-12-2010 4:12pm

Pangea wrote: »

All the top forecasters??
Im afraid not , you obviously havent read M.T. Craniums winter forecast.
You obviously have not been keeping up to date with other long range forecasts. BBC , Met Uk all have cold weather coming back for the remainder of the month with temperatures going to be well below average.
I can safely say that there will be -10 tempertures before the winter is out.
Im just looking forward to quoting your post once we get more of the freezing weather.

ah ive just realised he is in wind-up mode, he wants to annoy people who are keen to see a return to colder weather. i don't think he really believes what he is saying.

patneve2 · 09-12-2010 4:12pm

Looking at the charts today, we can expect an evolution like this:
1. First of all, a dry easterly (unforuntately the unstable core of cold air will be over central/southern europe with the HP near our shores)
2. Retrogression of the massive (it's forecast to be massive) Greenland high a good few hundred km NW of our shores, leaving us with a potent northerly. This is when it would get interesting...polar lows mmmmm;)

fizzycyst · 09-12-2010 4:13pm

I smell a troll :rolleyes:

Brenireland · 09-12-2010 4:15pm

nacho libre wrote: »

ah ive just realised he is in wind-up mode, he wants to annoy people who are keen to see a return to colder weather. i don't think he really believes what he is saying.

haha!yes exactly!,just said id throw out some statements to see how true to your word you were about the return of the hard weather!& it seems you may be right I just hope we get lots of snow & a white chrimbo!

dirtyghettokid · 09-12-2010 4:16pm

if we get a return of a cold snap, do you think it will dip low enough to break the current lowest temp record? (−19.1 °C)

nacho libre · 09-12-2010 4:21pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Looking at the charts today, we can expect an evolution like this:
1. First of all, a dry easterly (unforuntately the unstable core of cold air will be over central/southern europe with the HP near our shores)
2. Retrogression of the massive (it's forecast to be massive) Greenland high a good few hundred km NW of our shores, leaving us with a potent northerly. This is when it would get interesting...polar lows mmmmm;)

it would be interesting, and no one wants a polar low more than i do, but there is the very real danger the high near us doesn't go anywhere at all. with this in mind there was a guy lampooned a month ago on another weather site for saying a 1045 mb high would be close to the uk on Christmas Day. I could see that happening now. I think the only thing we can be confident about is that temperatures of 10-12 degrees in a south westerly flow aren't in the offing anytime soon.

eskimocat · 09-12-2010 4:23pm

I don't think we have seen the last of this spell. I seem to remember other winters (fado fado

) being very cold for prolonged periods, so why not this one, although to be fair, not necessarily this cold this early! This was mainly in Donegal on the coast so it was a real event when it snowed enough to stick there, but when it snowed, it SNOWED!

Am i glad to have my weather station this winter. It's lovely to be able to offer things like, it was -11 in Dromahair the other morning...

Brenireland · 09-12-2010 4:27pm

the only thing is I wonder how will the weather drop from highs of 10DG's in order for the cold front to return....

BEASTERLY · 09-12-2010 4:36pm

Brenireland wrote: »

the only thing is I wonder how will the weather drop from highs of 10DG's in order for the cold front to return....

The same way they rose from highs of -4;)

patneve2 · 09-12-2010 4:37pm

nacho libre wrote: »

it would be interesting, and no one wants a polar low more than i do, but there is the very real danger the high near us doesn't go anywhere at all. with this in mind there was a guy lampooned a month ago on another weather site for saying a 1045 mb high would be close to the uk on Christmas Day. I could see that happening now. I think the only thing we can be confident about is that temperatures of 10-12 degrees in a south westerly flow aren't in the offing anytime soon.

What does comfort me are the still massive positive anomalies in Greenland. I think we are definitely heading for a renewed cold spell, but your considerations could well prove to be accurate in the new year: I'd be very surprised in the high pressure anomalies continued in Greenland/mid Atlantic and they didn't shift over to our shores (mind you the hp will be over us in the next week) or even further east.

Leaving this aside, the Arctic Oscillation forecasts are still very negative (weakened polar vortex which is what we need) and the North Atlantic oscillation forecast reaches a low on the 16/17th December.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Therefore I'd say a cold spell is pretty much in the bag sometime between the 15/16th to the 20th. A breakdown of the situation should follow with milder air running back in. However, nothing is set in stone and that's why I love the weather, no1 really knows whats going to happen!:D

pistolpetes11 · 09-12-2010 4:54pm

patneve2 wrote: »

What does comfort me are the still massive positive anomalies in Greenland. I think we are definitely heading for a renewed cold spell, but your considerations could well prove to be accurate in the new year: I'd be very surprised in the high pressure anomalies continued in Greenland/mid Atlantic and they didn't shift over to our shores (mind you the hp will be over us in the next week) or even further east.

Leaving this aside, the Arctic Oscillation forecasts are still very negative (weakened polar vortex which is what we need) and the North Atlantic oscillation forecast reaches a low on the 16/17th December.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

Therefore I'd say a cold spell is pretty much in the bag sometime between the 15/16th to the 20th. A breakdown of the situation should follow with milder air running back in. However, nothing is set in stone and that's why I love the weather, no1 really knows whats going to happen!:D

The 20th you say

testicle · 09-12-2010 4:56pm

Pangea wrote: »

I can safely say that there will be -10 tempertures before the winter is out.

Well that's a safe bet. There already have been -10 temperatures this winter.

Iancar29 · 09-12-2010 5:36pm

BEASTERLY, bit off topic but did u venture up /near to mount Leinster that time?

darol15 · 09-12-2010 6:16pm

dats da job ! the moresnow and ice the better !! C'MON !!!!

patneve2 · 09-12-2010 6:50pm

GFS 12Z still sticking to a nice Northerly Arctic flow, will be interesting to see what ECMWF cooks up this evening.

Musicman2000 · 09-12-2010 7:15pm

patneve2 wrote: »

GFS 12Z still sticking to a nice Northerly Arctic flow, will be interesting to see what ECMWF cooks up this evening.

The GFS bring down bitter conditions from the 18 of Dec BUT the ECMWF done a U turn on this mornings run, so its a wait and see could still be a downgrade yet:rolleyes:

Pangea · 09-12-2010 7:16pm

testicle wrote: »

Well that's a safe bet. There already have been -10 temperatures this winter.

Im not talking about what has past ,I was talking to the troll who said there wont be any more -10 tempertures this winter.

Iancar29 · 09-12-2010 7:27pm

http://www.accuweather.com/video/704630559001/laminate%20floori-europe-gets-hit-by-extreme-cold.asp?channel=vbbastaj

" INSERTS JAWS THEME HERE! "

Its on the way people!!

glimmerman123 · 09-12-2010 7:33pm

Gerry Murphy was just on the six one news and he said there is a chance that rain might spread down across the country from the north and may turn to snow as it moves down. He also said this could happen at the end of next week but because it's a bit away it's not set in stone. Interesting times ahead.

isle of man · 09-12-2010 7:34pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/video/704630559001/laminate%20floori-europe-gets-hit-by-extreme-cold.asp?channel=vbbastaj

" INSERTS JAWS THEME HERE! "

Its on the way people!!

holy hell, hes just said it could be in the top 5-10 coldest decs ever

Musicman2000 · 09-12-2010 7:43pm

isle of man wrote: »

holy hell, hes just said it could be in the top 5-10 coldest decs ever

ECMWF just out, not good at all for cold and snow lovers

Iancar29 · 09-12-2010 7:44pm

isle of man wrote: »

holy hell, hes just said it could be in the top 5-10 coldest decs ever

He must know of boards , and knows we are all DYING for a historic event, .... and he's just teasing us by saying that!

Iancar29 · 09-12-2010 7:54pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

ECMWF just out, not good at all for cold and snow lovers

I hav more trust in forecasters than models.......

well.... i think i do ! ha

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 09-12-2010 7:58pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

I hav more trust in forecasters than models.......

well.... i think i do ! ha

I'm saving that in case it bites you in the ass ! Haha

09-12-2010 8:04pm

Musicman2000 wrote: »

ECMWF just out, not good at all for cold and snow lovers

Yes it's useless for cold untill about t-240 which is way outside of the reliable.
So I guess the thaw is likely to go on all next week aswell then.
The GFS is just fodder for speculation,the main nwp outputs are always the ukmo and the ecm.
The UKMO is also crap for cold in Ireland this evening.

Musicman2000 · 09-12-2010 8:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes it's useless for cold untill about t-240 which is way outside of the reliable.
So I guess the thaw is likely to go on all next week aswell then.
The GFS is just fodder for speculation,the main nwp outputs are always the ukmo and the ecm.
The UKMO is also crap for cold in Ireland this evening.

Yeah the northely that the GFS had is totally scrapped by the ECMF and has an easterly instead, very strange outputs from both

TURRICAN · 09-12-2010 8:41pm

What's all this MVP or whatever double Dutch?

thetonynator · 09-12-2010 8:42pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

I hav more trust in forecasters than models.......

well.... i think i do ! ha

well generally the forecasters are using models. . :P

Iancar29 · 09-12-2010 9:24pm

thetonynator wrote: »

well generally the forecasters are using models. . :P

.... Ye but generally we dont hear of State Weather Services been run intirely on computers either ......

....:p

isle of man · 09-12-2010 9:49pm

charts i just looked at, show the cold coming down from the north around about the 15th which is next wed ish.

and staying for at least a week. not as strong as been posted, but then we are a long way into FI land.

so anybodys guess at what or how long it would go.

but -14 uppers for couple days in scotland, what sort of ground temps could that produce

nacho libre · 09-12-2010 10:57pm

good old Joe Bastardi. he likes to keep things in perspective, doesn't he:p

he has been wrong so far this winter, so who is to say he's not wrong this time. well he maybe right, but coming out with hyperbolic stuff like that at this early juncture is a bit silly in my opinion.

Possible Return to cold next week - Potentially Severe

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