Winter Weather 2015/16 : See Mod Note Post #1

I'm waiting for tonight's ECM operational run keenly. If that shows more pronounced ridging toward Santa land, then I'm going to call it as a pending 'cold spell'...a mid January one at that.....

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Meh....unless I see Polar bears coming down the Liffey

lol I can understand some of the glass half full posts. Normally any decent cold spells implode before they get to our shores or we are on the edge while the UK & Europe are in the freezer. BUT its hard not to get excited looking at some of the morning runs. Looking forward to the 12z's

ronnie3585 wrote: »

A lot of chatter about today's charts over on Netweather too. Won't be long til the gutter-press get a hold of this and we can look forward to days of measured headlines like DEATH FREEZE 2016 etc.

Two feet of snow only

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/631670/Flood-Britain-misery-Arctic-blast-UK-weather

Gonzo wrote: »

I really hope this works out, not just for the sake of snow but to shut the atlantic down for a few weeks, we really need a break from the constant rain and wild winds

This more then anything else, is why i hope it happens, i dont care if i don't see a snowflake, iv'e had water lying around the house 7 times since november 1st and the ground is mush, i just want dry weather

droidman123 wrote: »

Sorry i am not falling into that trap.me giving an opinion about being able or not being able to long range irelands weather forecast IS discussing the weather.anyway im not going to drag that argument up again,i just thought it was funny the way it was said that next week is too far away to predict,but 2 or 3 months is fine. You can see where i am coming from i hope.

But next week is not too far away to forecast, hence the increasing likelihood of a cold spell next week.
What is too far away to forecast is the detail: for how long, exactly how cold, how much precipitation.

^^

Looking at Friday:

Ah lads, would you put down the handbags - you're ruining the best run of charts for the last number of years for everyone!

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold spell looking increasingly likely for next week.

Whether it could be a snap or something of longer duration is impossible to say yet, since it depends on numerous hemispheric-wide things to take place to determine that. Same goes for the depth of cold and whether it will be a mostly dry spell or not, it's far too soon to say.

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

aboyro wrote: »

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

Yes it was according to news that I have seen. And yes also, it does look like the first strong El Nino with an expected cold spell (all my strong El Nino Winter months were all warmer than normal up to December 2015 inclusive)

aboyro wrote: »

Mac, any opinions or facts on a prolonged cold spell with a strong el nino. has it happened before??? or could it be a first.

also has anyone any info on whether or not storm frank is/was the cause of this disruption at the N pole??

72-73 was a strong El Nino and we still got heavy snow in Feb 73.

But there hasn't been many strong El Nino's and there hasn't been too many prolonged cold spells either, so I'm not really sure about any concrete correlations. There are other factors that influence the atmosphere apart from ENSO, especially in this part of the world.

May I ask anybody, before November 2009, when was Ireland's previous wettest month on record?

It is mad how I seen comparisons with the Winter of 1997 / 98 (with Storm Eva in particular) but now it is completely matching 2009 / 10 just different months.

2009 / 10

November: Exceptionally wet (second wettest month on record now) and mild. Sunny though.
December: Becoming very cold, sunny and dry after a wet and windy start.
January: Very cold, sunny and dry.

2015 / 16

December: Exceptionally wet (wettest month on record) and warm. Dull also.
January: Relatively wet so far (like December 2009) and mild (not particularly so, like December 2009!). Relatively sunny in places (like December 2009!)

I see a repeat!

WheatenBriar wrote: »

We'd need minus nines,but its complex because,there'd be a large volume of surface to 5000ft cold air and dewpoints coming in the wake of that,which means temps at 850 level don't need to be as low,if you get me?
Lets see

Thanks. Will be glued to the forum for forseeable.