FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

Gaoth Laidir · 23-12-2015 11:21PM

There will be a good switch in jet energy from the east Pacific to the Atlantic over the next 5 days. The exact interaction of this with low level features cannot be narrowed down at this stage but it seems likely that somewhere we will see a couple of those strong storms being progged, just exactly where is the question.

Now

Tuesday

littlemac1980 · 24-12-2015 12:58AM

Here are the swells that Magicseaweed is predicting for he 30th.

The low pressure centre has moved slightly more North in their predictions than in yesterday's.

You can still see it in this photo though just north of the swell.

Looks pretty bad.

ninebeanrows · 24-12-2015 04:16AM

Probably going to skirt to the north-west on this run, but an incredibly dangerous storm progged on the 0z GFS

gfs-0-144.png?0?0

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 07:49AM

Looks like a couple of lows cross close to or right over Ireland next week in the ECM. Impossible to nail down specifics yet but the potential is there.
It looks like a deep low crosses Ireland on the UKMO between 120-144 too.
0Z GFS has a storm further in FI on New Years Day.

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 09:29AM

Gusts at sea off the south coast are up to 185 km/h here.

Birtles · 24-12-2015 10:04AM

Met Eireann flagging both of these possible events in this mornings forecast.

Potentially extremely windy or stormy weather with heavy rain developing Monday night and for a time on Tuesday.

Extremely disturbed weather will continue through the week, with some very wet and extremely windy spells expected at times, some drier brighter interludes also.

Irish Steve · 24-12-2015 10:08AM

maquiladora wrote: »

Gusts at sea off the south coast are up to 185 km/h here.

If I'm reading this right, and we can't see the isobars further out, this is about the best track for this event in terms of the wind over land. If it comes further North, it could be problematic, the lack of gradient so close to the centre seems to imply that it might be a relatively benign event for most of the country.

My bigger concern, along with I suspect many others, is the potential rainfall out of something like this, given how much water there already is still on the ground, and the attendant flooding risks.

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 10:18AM

Irish Steve wrote: »

If I'm reading this right, and we can't see the isobars further out, this is about the best track for this event in terms of the wind over land. If it comes further North, it could be problematic, the lack of gradient so close to the centre seems to imply that it might be a relatively benign event for most of the country.

My bigger concern, along with I suspect many others, is the potential rainfall out of something like this, given how much water there already is still on the ground, and the attendant flooding risks.

That is heading northeast, so it would bring strong winds over the east later on that track.

It's pointless looking at specifics seriously at this point though. Latest gfs, for example now puts the deep low south of Iceland on the 30th, we'll away from here.

sryanbruen · 24-12-2015 10:19AM

The BBC said we definitely are in for a storm on Monday or Tuesday

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 10:32AM

06Z GFS now showing no storms between now and Dec 31st. Lows are kept further west. Quite a lot of rain over the south and east on that run though.

patneve2 · 24-12-2015 10:55AM

GFS 06Z teases in deep FI with an absolute beauty at 280 hours

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 11:02AM

Cold pool meets low pressure. #Snow.

Villain · 24-12-2015 11:04AM

Thankfully storms staying out West on latest run, yaaa for downgrades.

B17G · 24-12-2015 12:38PM

Juicy uppers....

Captain Snow · 24-12-2015 02:28PM

image posting

Rebelbrowser · 24-12-2015 02:56PM

I know some on here love storms but its good to look at the fi thread and see dark blues. Thats the reason most of us visit. Delighted storms around new year now looking less likely too. Sick to the gills of wind and rain.....

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 03:05PM

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

I know some on here love storms but its good to look at the fi thread and see dark blues. Thats the reason most of us visit. Delighted storms around new year now looking less likely too. Sick to the gills of wind and rain.....

I wouldnt say less likely yet. No storms on the 06Z GFS, but the most recent ECM and UKMO did show potential storms. We'll see what the 12Z runs show. I don't think anything will be certain for a couple of more days at least.

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 04:37PM

Pretty amazing 12Z GFS FI with the cold pool on one side of us and a stalled deep Atlantic low on the other side of us. Ireland right in the middle of a battleground between a snowfest and rainfest there.

Captain Snow · 24-12-2015 04:56PM

maquiladora wrote: »

Pretty amazing 12Z GFS FI with the cold pool on one side of us and a stalled deep Atlantic low on the other side of us. Ireland right in the middle of a battleground between a snowfest and rainfest there.

One of the greatest 12z runs so far this Winter.

I think the winter of 1947 went the same, mild start to winter then it plunged us into the freezer..........

image hosting 30 mb

This is just AWESOME stuff.

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 05:32PM

Captain Snow wrote: »

One of the greatest 12z runs so far this Winter.

I think the winter of 1947 went the same, mild start to winter then it plunged us into the freezer..........

image hosting 30 mb

This is just AWESOME stuff.

Yep pretty cool to see the different airmasses colliding like that. But like the big storms shown yesterday, the GFS FI will no doubt change again tomorrow...

sryanbruen · 24-12-2015 06:33PM

I can't remember there being a Tuesday, December 29th without a storm or heavy rain!

1998 - flooding in Blackwater
2009 - falls up to 40mm in the south
2015 - now looking like a storm will come on this day

Stealthfins · 24-12-2015 07:12PM

Captain Snow wrote:

I think the winter of 1947 went the same, mild start to winter then it plunged us into the freezer..........

I said that a few times here over the past week.
I think were in for a hard January.
Get the logs coal and turf stacked up ðŸ˜

Elmer Blooker · 24-12-2015 09:34PM

Captain Snow wrote: »

I think the winter of 1947 went the same, mild start to winter then it plunged us into the freezer..........

..... a meteorological myth, there was no mild start to that winter as Europe froze in December.

Stealthfins · 24-12-2015 10:02PM

Elmer Blooker wrote:

..... a meteorological myth, there was no mild start to that winter as Europe froze in December.

Says who ?

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 10:12PM

Another near miss on the 18Z GFS.

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 10:49PM

B17G wrote: »

The lovely snowmageddon charts from earlier in the day have disappeared off the latest run. Oh the tease that is FI.....:(.

Oh no they haven't! #snowfest

B17G · 24-12-2015 10:52PM

Ah, sorry Maq. After deleting that post in a fit of unhappiness, if anybodys confused looking for the original!!

I shall try to stay optimistic! There's a -12 upper nibbling at the SE coast at +300.

maquiladora · 24-12-2015 11:04PM

18Z GFS FI goes into Christmas eye candy land, and by the end of the run....

teddybones · 24-12-2015 11:10PM

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS FI goes into Christmas eye candy land, and by the end of the run....

Christmas present! Ta! I will take hope over nowt!

Elmer Blooker · 24-12-2015 11:27PM

Stealthfins wrote: »

Says who ?

Read reports from December 1946 here.

THE GREAT FREEZE.
Impact On Western Europe.
LONDON, Dec. 22.-England and Western Europe are in-the
grip of the most intense cold this winter. The Vistula River is
frozen over, the temperature at Prague is 28 degrees below freezing
point, the Rhine for the first time since 1929 is ice-bound at three
points in the French occupational zone, and in London yesterday
the shortest day of the year was also' the coldest.

http://trove.nla.gov.au/ndp/del/article/46250351

FI Charts (+T120 onwards) Autumn/Winter 2015 - see Mod Note post #1

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