Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

JanuarySnowstor · 16-12-2013 6:17pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

You joking? You haven't seen the charts between 48-72hrs!

Would hit Ireland hard, northwest and north obviously most at risk.
But you are very wrong with your assessment, broadly similar to the GFS.

I disagree, its clearly further North than the GFS and it's own 0z run from earlier.
A slight nudge North in the morning runs and it will miss altogether
That's my assesment anyway:)

maquiladora · 16-12-2013 6:21pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Lots of uncertainty when you compare the UKM, GFS and ECMWF so!

All at 48-60hrs.

Yeah. I was thinking a blend between GFS and UKMO but then ECM/GEM have a third option. Can't all be right.

Hard one to call.

Oneiric 3 · 16-12-2013 6:23pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

I disagree, its clearly further North than the GFS and it's own 0z run from earlier.
A slight nudge North in the morning runs and it will miss altogether
That's my assesment anyway:)

on the plus side, a nudge north would bring a better chance of squall zones developing near Ireland.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 6:26pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah. I was thinking a blend between GFS and UKMO but then ECM/GEM have a third option. Can't all be right.

Hard one to call.

Yea, not long until we find out. I'd probably call a version of the GFS with the highest winds a touch further northwest.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 6:33pm

ECMWF has the low near 952hPa off the northwest coast at 60hrs.

Greatest gradient just off coast, if this occurred it would be just the northwest bearing the brunt.

dopolahpec · 16-12-2013 6:44pm

Met Eireann won't be making a call on this yet on the basis of the current output. Still seems to be a range of solutions running from intense storm affecting much of the north to an increasing trend toward a more northerly track which even the 12z GFS was hinting at with severe winds only affecting the north west coast

snowstorm2013 · 16-12-2013 7:00pm

As much as I enjoy the watching the power of these winter storms, I am hoping that this event wont be severe. Last saturday a large tree got knocked near my garage and a second is weakened. I have a tree surgeon booked for Friday but if this tree falls it will hit either the garage or the fuel shed. Am I right in saying that things are looking less likely for a major wind storm for Ireland? Im in North co. Sligo near the coast

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 7:07pm

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

As much as I enjoy the watching the power of these winter storms, I am hoping that this event wont be severe. Last saturday a large tree got knocked near my garage and a second is weakened. I have a tree surgeon booked for Friday but if this tree falls it will hit either the garage or the fuel shed. Am I right in saying that things are looking less likely for a major wind storm for Ireland? Im in North co. Sligo near the coast

No, you seem in a very vulnerable location. I would say there is a high chance of you receiving some 60kt gusts at least with a moderate risk of 70kts.

(That is knots, multiply by 1.9 for kilometers)

maquiladora · 16-12-2013 7:08pm

Latest NWS chart for 48 hours. 958mb deepening to 942mb north of Scotland 24 hours later. Track takes a slight bend towards the northwest coast.

A small enough margin between a standard windy winter night on the west coast, or something more severe.

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif

Weathering · 16-12-2013 7:11pm

Unable to access charts all day(phone screen is cracked) and I'm kind of lost as to what's happening. Lots of mixed messages reading through this thread.

whitebriar · 16-12-2013 7:40pm

Weathering wrote: »

Unable to access charts all day(phone screen is cracked) and I'm kind of lost as to what's happening. Lots of mixed messages reading through this thread.

Basically..
If you have a shed roof in the west/northwest with loose timbers,I'd be down to the hardware store first thing tomorrow for enough rope to secure it.

Oneiric 3 · 16-12-2013 7:41pm

A grim hope remaining with the latest WRF. Like NAE, has smaller, mesoscale features developing around main circulation though that is where similarity between the two ends.

(from meteogalica)

What does it take to get a half decent storm these days?

snowstorm2013 · 16-12-2013 7:48pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

No, you seem in a very vulnerable location. I would say there is a high chance of you receiving some 60kt gusts at least with a moderate risk of 70kts.

(That is knots, multiply by 1.9 for kilometers)

Ok thanks. I spoke with a neighbour and he had heard it was going to be windy but met eireann arent really saying much about it. The tree surgeon cant get to me until Friday but he said he hadnt heard of any big wind event... I spoke to hm ten minutes ago. So I hoping that we will be spared wind on Wednesday night. I could get another crew in tomorrow but they way more expensive and I cant risk using the Christmas money on the seemingly small chance of strong winds. Dreading the next 48 hours

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 7:49pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

A grim hope remaining with the latest WRF. Like NAE, has smaller, mesoscale features developing around main circulation though that is where similarity between the two ends.

(from meteogalica)

What does it take to get a half decent storm these days?

I really would not write this storm off.

Best case scenario is that it hits the northwest coastal districts only, but if it did, it would hit here hard because it would have to have went under exceptionally rapid deepening to take this curve north.

ECMWF Ensembles will be interesting, as i think you'll find, a large % will take a more southerly route.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 7:50pm

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Ok thanks. I spoke with a neighbour and he had heard it was going to be windy but met eireann arent really saying much about it. The tree surgeon cant get to me until Friday but he said he hadnt heard of any big wind event... I spoke to hm ten minutes ago. So I hoping that we will be spared wind on Wednesday night. I could get another crew in tomorrow but they way more expensive and I cant risk using the Christmas money on the seemingly small chance of strong winds. Dreading the next 48 hours

Well it was made clear on the 6.1 Weather Bulletin that the northwest was a risk of Storm winds during Wednesday night.

Tactical · 16-12-2013 7:53pm

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

What does it take to get a half decent storm these days?

Probably the same thing it takes to get decent snow event!

patneve2 · 16-12-2013 7:54pm

As always, only the nowcasting will reveal the precise position of the low. However, I doubt that it will track any more south than its forecast to at the moment, and to be honest I hope it doesn't.

Oscar Bravo · 16-12-2013 7:56pm

Siobhan Ryan gave a very good forecast after the 6 news. She had a line marked out for connaught and most of Ulster for Wednesday evening/night and a symbol saying 100km/hr+ gusts. Have a look after the 9 news. It will be a stormy night in the W/NW ,of course we who live there are well use to that kind of thing.

snowstorm2013 · 16-12-2013 8:23pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Siobhan Ryan gave a very good forecast after the 6 news. She had a line marked out for connaught and most of Ulster for Wednesday evening/night and a symbol saying 100km/hr+ gusts. Have a look after the 9 news. It will be a stormy night in the W/NW ,of course we who live there are well use to that kind of thing.[/QUOTE

Saw her forecast on rte+1 and she mentioned gusts well in excess of 100kmph so I gonna get the other guys in tomorrow. Not taking the chance.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 8:30pm

ECMWF mean is further south than the Op.

Will take a look at stamps in next hour. Of course we miss the crucial 60hr charts.
EDM1-48.GIF?16-0

gugsy · 16-12-2013 8:30pm

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Ok thanks. I spoke with a neighbour and he had heard it was going to be windy but met eireann arent really saying much about it. The tree surgeon cant get to me until Friday but he said he hadnt heard of any big wind event... I spoke to hm ten minutes ago. So I hoping that we will be spared wind on Wednesday night. I could get another crew in tomorrow but they way more expensive and I cant risk using the Christmas money on the seemingly small chance of strong winds. Dreading the next 48 hours

Everyone here is looking at charts from different website 24hrs a day. This storm or big wind event has been predicted since last week and it will hit, how severe is yet to be determined. Winds will be gale force 7-9 to violent storm force 11 with damaging gusts. Just because you didnt hear it doesnt mean its not going to happen. Met eireann are not great at warning people up untill the last 24 hours, you have 72, last weekend for instance we were all taking about the event on sat saying it was going to be big, it was with damaging with gusts up to 120kmh met eireann only warned of gust up to 110 kmh that sat morning There yellow statues was update to orange half way through sat to late if you ask me. So because lads didnt hear it, means the radio and met eireann have not broadcasted it yet. Your hearing it now here, so the question you need to ask yourself is which will cost you more a new garage or the more expensive lads. No one here (or maybe a small few) are professional meteorologists. But we have experience in reading charts.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 8:43pm

This definitely has the chance of being a lot more severe than Saturday which was a classic pre frontal tightening of the gradient.

This could be a classic sting jet into parts of west with real power.

Two different beasts in my opinion. This could be a serious storm.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 8:48pm

Nice image of what the ECMWF Op run perceives the satellite to look like @ T48hrs

high%2C_medium_and_low_cloud_cover!48!Europe!cloud!pop!od!oper!w_clouds!2013121612!!chart.gif

compsys · 16-12-2013 8:49pm

gugsy wrote: »

Everyone here is looking at charts from different website 24hrs a day. This storm or big wind event has been predicted since last week and it will hit, how severe is yet to be determined. Winds will be gale force 7-9 to violent storm force 11 with damaging gusts. Just because you didnt hear it doesnt mean its not going to happen. Met eireann are not great at warning people up untill the last 24 hours, you have 72, last weekend for instance we were all taking about the event on sat saying it was going to be big, it was with damaging with gusts up to 120kmh met eireann only warned of gust up to 110 kmh that sat morning There yellow statues was update to orange half way through sat to late if you ask me. So because lads didnt hear it, means the radio and met eireann have not broadcasted it yet. Your hearing it now here, so the question you need to ask yourself is which will cost you more a new garage or the more expensive lads. No one here (or maybe a small few) are professional meteorologists. But we have experience in reading charts.

I think you're being overly critical on Met E. People here can waffle on about the weather and sh*te on about whatever they want. As much we might like to think otherwise, very few people listen to what anyone on here is saying.

Met E is the NATIONAL weather forecaster. Anything they forecast can be picked up by the entire national media. They need to be extremely certain about an extreme weather event before they start issuing amber alerts and putting the fear of God into people.

If I'd a euro for every time the consensus on here has been totally wrong about an upcoming weather 'event' then I'd be a millionaire.

The people on here who forecast and read the charts mainly do so for fun and as a hobby. Some are very good at what they do. Some not so good. Big weather 'events' are often incorrectly forecast and hyped up on here - sometimes they're not. However, whenever someone on here gets it wrong, no-one really cares or notices.

Met E don't have that luxury. They're the national forecaster and half the media and the public always seems ready to criticize them for any incorrect forecast. Consequently they need to be pretty certain about a big event before they call it. As a result, I think they're right not to be issuing any major alerts just yet.

snowstorm2013 · 16-12-2013 8:53pm

gugsy wrote: »

Everyone here is looking at charts from different website 24hrs a day. This storm or big wind event has been predicted since last week and it will hit, how severe is yet to be determined. Winds will be gale force 7-9 to violent storm force 11 with damaging gusts. Just because you didnt hear it doesnt mean its not going to happen. Met eireann are not great at warning people up untill the last 24 hours, you have 72, last weekend for instance we were all taking about the event on sat saying it was going to be big, it was with damaging with gusts up to 120kmh met eireann only warned of gust up to 110 kmh that sat morning There yellow statues was update to orange half way through sat to late if you ask me. So because lads didnt hear it, means the radio and met eireann have not broadcasted it yet. Your hearing it now here, so the question you need to ask yourself is which will cost you more a new garage or the more expensive lads. No one here (or maybe a small few) are professional meteorologists. But we have experience in reading charts.

That told me ha ha. I going to take this storm seriously and have the lads by booked for 10 am tomorrow. Thanks for the advice lads.

Weathering · 16-12-2013 8:56pm

From Netweather

From Ryan Maue's Twitter.

"UK news hyping Wed-Thurs storm yet? Sustained hurricane force winds look likely."

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 8:58pm

Hard to make any real judgement from the ECMWF postage stamps as I can only see the 48 and 72hr charts.

Save to say that 95% predict a severe depression coming near Ireland, the uncertainty is the 100-150 miles range in where the tightest gradient will be remains.

gugsy · 16-12-2013 8:59pm

compsys wrote: »

I think you're being overly critical on Met E. People here can waffle on about the weather and sh*te on about whatever they want. As much we might like to think otherwise, very few people listen to what anyone on here is saying.

Met E is the NATIONAL weather forecaster. Anything they forecast can be picked up by the entire national media. They need to be extremely certain about an extreme weather event before they start issuing amber alerts and putting the fear of God into people.

If I'd a euro for every time the consensus on here has been totally wrong about an upcoming weather 'event' then I'd be a millionaire.

The people on here who forecast and read the charts mainly do so for fun and as a hobby. Some are very good at what they do. Some not so good. Big weather 'events' are often incorrectly forecast and hyped up - sometimes they're not.

Met E don't have that luxury.They need to be pretty certain about a big event before they call it. As a result, I think they're right not to be issuing any major alerts just yet.

Look the man is looking for advice i just gave him some. I posted about last week which was very true. The waffling here is fun but its also correct at the time models are run, no one can control the weather including models and if a model tells you it will be windy you sort of believe it, thats the same for meteorologists. Sometimes its wrong and the event can miss us or change. It doesnt mean that it couldnt have happened. I just wanted to warn snowstorm2013 because if i was living in sligo id be getting the tree cut. Sorry if i came across over critical to met e i was just disappionted in the late warning they gave last weekend. Sorry if i offended anyone

Redsunset · 16-12-2013 9:28pm

Sorry for the large image.

Here is Ecm at 57 hours. This is potentially very dangerous. As already stated by folks on here just take the necessary precautions.

M.T. Cranium · 16-12-2013 9:38pm

RGEM (only available on site) holds to previous GEM track and shows 957 mb at 18z Wed approx 57N 14W ... low is off map grid but label is barely inside the borders.

... so I am going by the usual geometry of numbers and location. Anyway it looks to me like RGEM is not varying from earlier GEM runs at this hour.

I don't blame Met E for not saying too much yet, the spread of guidance is fairly large and not many people can do much to prepare today or even Tuesday for the most likely outcome which is borderline damaging gusts. That Christmas Day apocalypse has faded out for the time being.

maquiladora · 16-12-2013 9:42pm

18Z GFS is rolling out and is a bit more intense than the 12Z by 39 hours. Let's see where it takes it.

gugsy · 16-12-2013 9:42pm

All western coastlines looking most at risk

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 9:42pm

18z GFS looking worrying

Gradient pulls north quite quickly, but still dangerous for parts of west/northwest.

Lots more runs to go!

gfs-0-42.png?18?18

Iancar29 · 16-12-2013 9:45pm

965 hp at +42 hrs ! :O

18z going like some of the dangerous 12z ensembles!

Oscar Bravo · 16-12-2013 9:46pm

now I must remember to get batteries for the torch tomorrow!

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 9:48pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

965 hp at +42 hrs ! :O

18z going like some of the dangerous 12z ensembles!

The centre of the low migrates north quite suddenly, so not quite as bad as first appeared at T42hrs but still a potentially damaging system.

Redsunset · 16-12-2013 9:51pm

At 51 hours it looks nasty

Iancar29 · 16-12-2013 9:53pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

The centre of the low migrates north quite suddenly, so not quite as bad as first appeared at T42hrs but still a potentially damaging system.

Certainly looks to do a handbrake turn alright! , Darn you Rapid cyclogenesis!!! lol

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 9:54pm

Redsunset wrote: »

At 51 hours it looks nasty

It is certainly nasty, but not quite the Armageddons that some 12z Ensembles showed.

maquiladora · 16-12-2013 9:59pm

18Z GFS ends up being a slight downgrade in terms of severe winds. Each run since the 0Z has downgraded the winds a little each time, perhaps it is a trend and not just variance, we've certainly seen that pattern before.

Still different from the ECM and UKMO though, so I don't think we're still any nearer to knowing what form it will actually take. Hope the new 0Z's clear things up.

Oneiric 3 · 16-12-2013 10:01pm

Latest Hirlam. Potential for NW coasts still there. Tomorrow night's system actually looks more potent for the rest of us than this one.

Of course, could upgrade again in later runs.

gugsy · 16-12-2013 10:19pm

and 24 hrs

Harps · 16-12-2013 10:22pm

Looks like a fairly typical winter storm from a quick scan through the thread, a notable storm probably for the north and west cost but certainly nothing they're not accustomed to at this time of year. Interesting to see how it develops with so many solutions still on the table

mike2084 · 16-12-2013 10:42pm

Christmas looks jinxed this year, first it was ESB strikes now hurricanes :-)

Iancar29 · 16-12-2013 10:45pm

mike2084 wrote: »

Christmas looks jinxed this year, first it was ESB strikes now hurricanes extratropical system . :-)

eskimocat · 16-12-2013 10:57pm

snowstorm2013 wrote: »

Saw her forecast on rte+1 and she mentioned gusts well in excess of 100kmph so I gonna get the other guys in tomorrow. Not taking the chance.

Prob for the best. I had a tree due to be brought down recently too, however the bit of wind that managed to make its way into Leitrim one Sunday afternoon took care of it by knocking it. No damage thankfully, but the wind wasn't near as strong as what was forecast in this run.

maquiladora · 16-12-2013 10:58pm

Whatever happens Wednesday night, it looks like that won't be the last low we'll be watching before Christmas.

ninebeanrows · 16-12-2013 11:09pm

Still many severe GFS Ensembles this evening, large consensus now for a significant storm.

maquiladora · 16-12-2013 11:28pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still many severe GFS Ensembles this evening, large consensus now for a significant storm.

Had a quick scan and I don't think even a single one of them looked like the UKMO at 48 hours. Strange to see such a gap between two of the leading models at such a short range.

keith16 · 16-12-2013 11:29pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Whatever happens Wednesday night, it looks like that won't be the last low we'll be watching before Christmas.

Weathercheck wrote: »

Still many severe GFS Ensembles this evening, large consensus now for a significant storm.

Thanks for the ongoing inputs lads, great stuff. Any thoughts on how it's looking to track or if it's going to intensify once it heads east past Ireland?

Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

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