Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

maquiladora wrote: »

Here is how Saturday morning looked. For the south and east, the winds on Wednesday night probably won't be any higher than last Saturday. A different story for the west though.

Last Saturday :

Thanks for that Maq! Didn't realise it was meant to be as windy on Saturday last..is the xmas day storm still on track? a long way off though.

Christmas Day is a long way off. Not really possible to say.

Oscar Bravo

its met eireann time on radio 1 in a minute or two, lets hear what they have to say....

aisling86

What was met.ie update?

Oscar Bravo

No mention on the radio update ,a little bit on the website "The rain will clear early on Wednesday night with showers soon following; there is a threat of stormy conditions developing for a time during the night in many parts of Connacht and Ulster as winds veer southwest to west" . I suspect it will get more of a mention on this evenings update.

Iancar29

From NOAA



A very active, and very intense storm track continues across the central and northeastern Atlantic. The animation contains five images: GFS output (10m winds, MSLP) valid at December 18 00Z through Dec 19 00Z, and highlights another rapidly intensifying low pressure that is expected to develop hurricane force winds.

dopolahpec

I'll be watching the GFS 12z like a hawk. I wonder what it will bring? Something tells me it will develop the disturbance later again without the severity over Ireland seen in previous runs which are trending towards delaying the development ever so slightly on each to my eyes anyway. Remember the previous storm a few weeks ago which eventually didn't really kick off until well clear of Ireland?

maquiladora

As Ian posted above, this has now gotten the attention of the National Weather Service OPC, who just posted that above on their facebook page.

I checked the 06Z HIRLAM which only goes out as far as noon on Wednesday. It has the low at around 962mb at that point (it's 966mb on the above GFS gif for the same time).

We'll see what the 12Z runs bring soon.

Storm 10

Guys can someone give me a link to that chart from NOAA I cant find that particular one, thanks

dopolahpec

maquiladora wrote: »

As Ian posted above, this has now gotten the attention of the National Weather Service OPC, who just posted that above on their facebook page.

I checked the 06Z HIRLAM which only goes out as far as noon on Wednesday. It has the low at around 962mb at that point (it's 966mb on the above GFS gif for the same time).

We'll see what the 12Z runs bring soon.

Glued to it

ninebeanrows

Eyes down for the 12zs, Armageddon or open wave?

Kippure

Weathercheck wrote: »

Eyes down for the 12zs, Armageddon or open wave?

Armageddon...:D

maquiladora

12Z HIRLAM is 960mb at 54 hours with storm force winds along the west coast and hurricane force winds out at sea.

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z HIRLAM is 960mb at 54 hours with storm force winds along the west coast and hurricane force winds out at sea.

How does the East Coast look? Will be in Dublin on Wednesday and Thursday so just wondering how strong winds could be - obv not as strong as west coast but will they still pack a punch? And is rain included in this?!

dopolahpec

12z GFS 50 odd hours and it's there. This is starting to look locked in.

ninebeanrows

No real upgrade on the 12z, low appears slightly further north with worst winds for western and northern areas.

maquiladora

12Z GFS looks almost identical to the 06Z run apart from the gradient being a little further north.

Larbre34

I think its fair to say 'surfs up'. Connacht and Ulster to see 75kt gusts

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS looks almost identical to the 06Z run apart from the gradient being a little further north.

these systems usually tend to head north north west? looks like connacht ulster will be the place to be or not depending on your view.weathercheck did mention earlier due to later development might be more of a direct impact.

ninebeanrows

Real tight gradient into west @ 57hrs, windpeed touching sustained 70mph.

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

How does the East Coast look? Will be in Dublin on Wednesday and Thursday so just wondering how strong winds could be - obv not as strong as west coast but will they still pack a punch? And is rain included in this?!

Probably something similar to last Saturday morning there.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

Real tight gradient into west @ 57hrs, windpeed touching sustained 70mph.

Yeah, about 70-75mph sustained on the exposed west coast. About 10mph less intense than the 0Z, but still very windy.

M.T. Cranium

The 12z GME run would be slightly less intense than GFS for Ireland but then goes on to deepen low across northern Scotland to 935 mb and depicts 80-120 knot gradients there (by 06z Thursday). That scenario applied to GFS pattern would spread damaging gusts across most of Ireland. Meanwhile, I've seen the RGEM out to 48h and would expect that the GEM will maintain its previous scenario which was similar to the last run of the ECM. The regional shows a 962 mb low at 12z located at 55N 19W with the parent low near Iceland at 948 mbs.

By the way, the 12z GFS looks a bit more intense for Dublin around midnight than Saturday's event, as to previous few hours, a fast-moving squall line seems likely given the height falls and rapid increase in gradient after 18z, would expect this to be in a reverse C arc around eastern Ulster dropping across Leinster by late afternoon Wednesday. Winds would then continue to increase to a peak around midnight to 0300h for Dublin. I would read 65 knot max off the present GFS main chart and possibly 80 knots Mace Head and Belmullet. This leads to the question, who in Ireland has the lead responsibility to warn about potential storm surge, is that separate from Met Eireann or would they handle it? Would say that Galway Bay and harbours further north could see issues at the Thursday morning high tides.

Tactical

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

. This leads to the question, who in Ireland has the lead responsibility to warn about potential storm surge, is that separate from Met Eireann or would they handle it? Would say that Galway Bay and harbours further north could see issues at the Thursday morning high tides.

You would think there would be a simple answer to that question wouldn't you.........

This is one agency who publish "news"...

http://www.emergencyplanning.ie/news.aspx

But in typical fashion.......

"In Ireland different Government departments and agencies are responsible for specific emergency planning functions. In the event of a major emergency, the most appropriate department or agency is designated as the lead agency to co-ordinate the response to it."

Taken from http://www.emergencyplanning.ie/_home.aspx

maquiladora

Regarding storm surge forecast and warnings :

RPS was commissioned by the Office of Public Works (OPW) to undertake a real-time storm-surge forecasting service for the Republic of Ireland.

RPS utilises our previously developed MIKE 21 storm surge model to generate storm surge forecasts from October to April for various locations around the Irish coast. RPS have automated the process whereby Met data pertaining to wind and atmospheric pressure is downloaded daily from the Met Eireann FTP site and used to inform the storm surge forecasting model. The model is run daily from October to April and once post processing is completed the forecast data is uploaded to a designated secure website which is only accessed by OPW and other restricted organisations. The OPW then make a decision based on the predicted tidal levels on whether to issue a flood warning.

http://www.rpsgroup.com/Ireland/Services/C/Coastal-Engineering/Irish-Storm-Surge-Forecasting-Service.aspx

Oscar Bravo

1643 update from Met Eireann and their still not saying to much....The rain will clear early on Wednesday night with showers soon following; there is a threat of stormy conditions developing for a time during the night in many parts of Connacht and Ulster as winds veer southwest to west

maquiladora

UKMO at 48 hours with a 985mb open wave while the GFS has a rapidly deepening sub-970mb closed low at the same time.

It does have a 965mb low west of Scotland by 60 hours, but its still a weaker evolution.

Getting a feeling we might end up somewhere in the middle of those two options.

Tactical

maquiladora wrote: »

Regarding storm surge forecast and warnings :



http://www.rpsgroup.com/Ireland/Services/C/Coastal-Engineering/Irish-Storm-Surge-Forecasting-Service.aspx

That figures. A public body commissions a private company.... Only in Ireland I guess... But that would spark a whole other, off-topic debate.....

Back to the weather watching before I become further disillusioned with the things that happen in Ireland.

ninebeanrows

UKM going for a less developed feature but still develops a reasonable low at t60hrs.

I think there will be some support for a less developed low taking a slightly further south track.

Just one GFS Ensemble to show what is possible..

dopolahpec

NAVGEM doesn't develop anything really stormy either. More than any other feature these lows seem to pose real modelling issues.

maquiladora

dopolahpec wrote: »

NAVGEM doesn't develop anything really stormy either. More than any other feature these lows seem to pose real modelling issues.

Its one of the worst models, not worth looking at.