Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

dopolahpec

I can't post a link on phone but anyone else see this depression on the 12z ECM t+120? Looks nasty enough

cyclops999

ESTOFEX has Level 1 for most of Ireland on Saturday.

Harps

Tindie wrote: »

is there a another strom next week? for most of england ? any one chart from 18- 20 dec 2013?

thanks

Nothing too serious forecast for the moment, a lot of potential in the charts and I'd be surprised if we get through the week without a storm but for the moment it just like like widespread windy weather

howlinwolf

UK weather: Storm Emily set to batter Britain with blizzards and 90mph winds just in time for Christmas build up

13 Dec 2013 16:04 The freak storm is expected to hit much of the country next Thursday bringing gale force winds and heavy downpours across much of the country



the mirror in England is sitting on the fence as usual

howlinwolf

Harps wrote: »

Nothing too serious forecast for the moment, a lot of potential in the charts and I'd be surprised if we get through the week without a storm but for the moment it just like like widespread windy weather

should the level 2 warning not be edited out since it seems to most that it will be windy with gales but maybe nothing more, or would it just be safer to leave the warning just in case it turns out a little worse that expected esp in the north west.

_Whimsical_

We had quite a windy afternoon in Galway but not it's as still as can be, not so much as a mild breeze out.

The weather forecast on rte one tonight forecasted winds of max 75km in the west tomorrow and a stormy week ahead.

M.T. Cranium

The GFS 18z has gotten into the sherry and drawn up a Big Wind 2.0 storm for Christmas Day.

The only real conclusion to draw from all these model runs with their occasional mega-wind events is that the large-scale pattern is very conducive to strong winds. The actual triggering dynamics for these are seldom well modelled before about the 72h time scale in reality, personally I would say the Wed 18th event is more plausible from research variables than the Christmas Day event (which is still 12 days out) but mark down New Years Day as another peak energy date. Models won't pick up on that one until around 21-22 Dec at the earliest.

ninebeanrows

Yes , with the state of the atmosphere in the coming weeks it would be extremely fortunate if we did not get struck by a severe wind event.

Not including tomorrow morning which still will be very noticeable with gusts from 90-120km/hr.

pauldry

I think a severe wind event and or a snow event will happen in the next 2 weeks

Wind Wednesday next

Snow December 23 24 probably shortlived

maquiladora

cyclops999 wrote: »

ESTOFEX has Level 1 for most of Ireland on Saturday.

Yep.

With signals of low-end CAPE, a warm core and another sharp wind maximum (850 hPa winds up to 35 m/s), a potential for widespread and convectively enhanced severe wind gusts exists with the passage of this system.

M.T. Cranium

Looks dire for Wed night on the ECM, hope that doesn't verify ... but it certainly is plausible. The usual sequence seems to be gradual backing off by shifting these very deep lows a bit further north. As the other models are not quite that intense, will be taking a wait and see position but obviously if that map were to verify, force 12 winds in Donegal Bay and hurricane force gusts on land in northwest, storm force elsewhere.

The GFS continues to scare onlookers with its Christmas maps and the GEM is just toying with us now after some earlier nasty business. The UK model ends just before it might get out of control.

As several have remarked, this pattern has severe windstorm potential and it takes very little on the large scale to turn a borderline windstorm into a damaging event under these circumstances.

_Whimsical_

So it's a pretty windy morning in Galway but so far not exceptional.

signostic

0700z
BELMULLET(A) S 39KTS Gust 61 LIGHT RAIN
MACE HEAD GALWAY(A) S 40KTS Gust 53 LIGHT RAIN

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

maquiladora

Met Eireann upgraded to an Orange Warning for this morning.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Ireland

Southerly winds will reach mean speeds of 55 to 75 km/h and will gust 95 to 105km/h this morning and for a time this afternoon. But winds may gust to between 110 and 120 km/h along the west coast during Saturday morning.

leahyl

Pouring out of the heavens and very windy in cork city

Waitsian

leahyl wrote: »

Pouring out of the heavens and very windy in cork city

Ditto, Dundalk.

maquiladora

The west/northwest would really get battered on Wednesday if the 0Z ECM was right. Other models don't look to be as intense so unlikely it will be this severe, but worth keeping an eye on.

pad199207

Didnt think it was going to be this windy today

dexter647

Absolutely horrible out there this morning and going by the latest runs it's going to be a very very turbulent run up to christmas..Mother nature's way of getting us back for the past few weeks:pac:

mickger844posts

64km/h at my station and 98km/h at Waterford Airport in the last hour.

basillarkin

I've a game in Clifden @ 1 still no sign of it been called off, leaving Galway in a half an hour, hoping to get a phone call saying it's cancelled.

RuthieRose

Minor rugby cancelled in Galway city

hypersonic

looks like the show is over in wexford.

http://wexfordharbour.info/pChart2.1.3/examples/hourlyTemp2.php

pad199207

Recent Gust 64 KMH

errlloyd

Anyone have any predictions for early evening in Dublin, I'm sitting in the fourth row of the Aviva for the game at 18:00 and MET says it's going to clear up, but I'm not confident.

maquiladora

errlloyd wrote: »

Anyone have any predictions for early evening in Dublin, I'm sitting in the fourth row of the Aviva for the game at 18:00 and MET says it's going to clear up, but I'm not confident.

Should be cleared by 3-4pm.

signostic

Ireland west airport Knock - flights diverted

EIKN 141100Z 19028G44KT 6000 RA BKN006 OVC010 09/09 Q0996 TEMPO 3000 BKN003

Lumi

Max gust in Galway city so far 38mph (61km/h) @ 11.04am
13.2mm of rainfall recorded & rising - a thoroughly miserable morning

Cienciano

Miserable. The wind along with the rain, feels like sticking your head out the car window on the motorway in the rain

SpaceTime

Extremely wet and windy in Cork City at the moment.

Ireland can feel a bit like a ship's deck in the Atlantic at times like these!