Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

Kaizersoze81

Power just gone in my road in d15 lights flickered then gone. Hope this is fixed soon

SimonQuinlank

Kaizersoze81 wrote: »

Power just gone in my road in d15 lights flickered then gone. Hope this is fixed soon

Have a look on the ESB Powercheck site,gives an estimated time of restoration.

maquiladora

12Z ECM is showing an intense 950mb (and deepening) low to our west on Wednesday (96 hours).

Strangegravy

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z ECM is showing an intense 950mb (and deepening) low to our west on Wednesday (96 hours).

This is the one to watch I think, could still head further north but if not it'll be one hell of a wind storm hitting us...

vistafinder

clownface95 wrote: »

Hi just a quick question for ye! ive a aer lingus flight at 9 in the morning on monday departing from dublin airport, just abit paranoid with all the news of the bad weather! Should i be worried?

Forecast looks ok for Monday

maquiladora

Strangegravy wrote: »

This is the one to watch I think, could still head further north but if not it'll be one hell of a wind storm hitting us...

Yes, it's one to keep an eye on for sure. Low probability but high risk if it turned out like this.

Hooter23

Its windier now than it has been all day just as that band of rain passes by now here in Galway really quite vicious!

V_Moth

A squall line moving east?

Lumi

Some heavy, blustery showers over Galway city atm
The most recent one produced a gust of 48mph - the strongest of the day

Applause

Just had a very strong gust in southern Limerick city, it was as loud as thunder.

The Assistinator

very wet(lots of it) and windy day in donegal nothing out of the ordinary here just lots of water laying.:o

M.T. Cranium

Dodging a bullet today, the K4 buoy west of Donegal Bay (UK neighbour to M4) reports sustained winds of 48 knots but these very strong winds are heading north, however ... most guidance is converging on a severe wind storm on Wednesday evening, emanating from the tail of the current U.S. snowstorm which is (as of 06z) about 1000 mbs near the New Jersey coast. The portion of this system which will generate the Wednesday event is not yet in evidence but all the more reliable models develop it -- the GFS is currently most concerning with an extreme westerly gradient by 18z covering the northwest quadrant of Ireland. I don't want to be too alarmist as the GFS has a bit of a reputation for over-deepening but the depiction is only marginally different from the other models, which would support 45-50 knot sustained winds and 65-70 knot gusts (mainly from Galway Bay north but could be almost similar elsewhere). The GFS map at present would be more like 60 knots gusting to 100. As this event is now 84-90 hours out, we need to reboot this thread with a level 2 advisory for Wednesday night (what comes before and after looks no worse than what was seen yesterday, at this point). The GFS map would be pretty close to a level 3 which I don't recall having seen used here yet.

Well, let's hope this does not prove to be quite that intense, but I assume it will be all hands on deck as this becomes apparent to all during the morning.

Weathering

Yeah Wednesday is looking pretty severe. I for one am hoping for a level 3. Is that selfish of me? ha

Tactical

Weathering wrote: »

Yeah Wednesday is looking pretty severe. I for one am hoping for a level 3. Is that selfish of me? ha

Nah, I'm in the same boat as you.
I love a good wind (as long as no one gets hurt). To feel the power and ferocity of nature is awsome.

maquiladora

There is an upgraded Met Eireann orange warning for this morning. Up to 120 km/h gusts possible, but its a brief period of strong winds.

Belmullet recorded a 116 km/h gust.

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Donegal, Mayo and Sligo

Southerly winds of 45 to 60 km/h on Sunday morning with gusts of 90 to 120 km/hr.

Issued:
Sunday 15 December 2013 09:00
Valid:
Sunday 15 December 2013 09:00 to Sunday 15 December 2013 13:00

maquiladora

06Z GFS showing gales along western coastal counties on Wednesday, storm force on northwest coasts. Winder than Saturday morning and this morning, but nothing exceptional for those areas at all on this model, the type of event you'd see a couple of times a year usually. Needs to be watched though as the potential for a more severe event is there due to the uncertainty that still remains, though we almost always see winds getting downgraded the closer you get to day 0.

dopolahpec

I think Wednesday storm will show the usual trend and eventually move more to the north west and may eventually not be too severe.

tylercollins

Met Office UK already have a warning for Thursdays event. I don't think I've seen a warning out so early from them?

tylercollins

Latest run has this low just north of us with the low having a center of 955!!

dopolahpec

tylercollins wrote: »

Latest run has this low just north of us with the low having a center of 955!!

What kind of windspeeds would we see from that? Looks ugly

tylercollins

gusting to around 130 km/h

maquiladora

12Z GFS is more intense for the west coast on Wednesday than the 06Z run.

tylercollins

I'm far from an expert but this looks like a very similar setup to boxing day 1998??

Boxin Day 1998


19th December 2013

gozunda

tylercollins wrote: »

I'm far from an expert but this looks like a very similar setup to boxing day 1998??

Boxin Day 1998


19th December 2013

It is notable that both have areas of high presure to the south.

maquiladora

Just a windy day Wednesday on the 12Z UKMO, not even a closed low at 72 hours.



While the 12Z GEM has a 950mb low but the strongest winds are further northwest.



Considerable uncertainty.

ninebeanrows

I never trust the UKM GM to get the detail of a low. Often underestimates low intensities.

ninebeanrows

Worrying ECMWF

Severe Storm tracking towards north-western Ireland

ninebeanrows

ECMWF would lead to damaging winds for western and northern parts of Ireland.

Gusts would easily exceed 130km/hr

We miss the crucial 84hr chart here. But when i get it on weather underground later it will not be nice viewing. Potential for a significant storm, which will need a new thread.

-If ECMWF occurred i would expect the highest level of warning from Met Eireann.

maquiladora

GFS and ECM at 72 hours. ECM has a more intense low at that time, with 850mb winds over 100 knots. A huge difference from the UKMO, hard to believe it's 72 hours.

GFS :



ECM :



And 96 hours the ECM has deepened the low to 941mb southwest of the Faroe Islands.

Oneiric 3

Weathercheck wrote: »

I never trust the UKM GM to get the detail of a low. Often underestimates low intensities.

I think the UKMO works on a lower resolution after 48hrs than ECM or others, hence the somewhat more over-simplistic, smoother look of their charts. Despite this, I would say the UKMO tends to handle explosive storm tracks better than other models overall. (just my opinion)