Atlantic Storm Watch: December 2013

maquiladora

In contrast to the GFS (and to a lesser extent the ECM), the Met Office forecast for peak winds in Northern Ireland show maximum gusts of only 50mph (80 km/h) for the far north. I guess this is based off the 0Z UKMO which doesn't really develop the low much at all.

dopolahpec

maquiladora wrote: »

In contrast to the GFS (and to a lesser extent the ECM), the Met Office forecast for peak winds in Northern Ireland show maximum gusts of only 50mph (80 km/h) for the far north. I guess this is based off the 0Z UKMO which doesn't really develop the low much at all.

Very interesting to see such variability in the guidance.

ninebeanrows

UKM has almost zero support from ECM Ensembles.

Ensebles show spread of solutions for centre of low, some being further south than the op but the mean about where the Op places the centre. A few members have the gradient actually over southern half of Ireland.

torres9kop

Whats the potential for damaging winds this week in South Dublin? Have to finish the xmas shop. Will it be safe to go out?

maquiladora

Big difference between the 06Z NAE and the 0Z GFS at just 48 hours. One (or both?) of them is going to be very wrong. We'll see what the 06Z GFS does shortly.

DOCARCH

torres9kop wrote: »

Whats the potential for damaging winds this week in South Dublin? Have to finish the xmas shop. Will it be safe to go out?

I wouldn't worry too much...from what the models are showing this morning, there may be no Christmas (so not much point in shopping for it).

ninebeanrows

6z GFS delays the development of Low so storm right gradient likely to smack over Ireland at height of development phase.

ninebeanrows

Very tight gradient over Ireland

Would place a swathe of 70-80kt gusts across a large section of northern half of Ireland.

maquiladora

06Z GFS is slightly less intense than the 0Z run. But I think it's more to do with the natural variability and timing differences from run to run rather than the start of a downgrade.

Stormy on the west coast, with sustained winds touching hurricane force there.




A bit less severe for the northwest on this run, but still very windy. Inland gales would send plastic santas and outdoor lights flying, something worth remembering if this still looks as bad on Tuesday.

cambasque

for a novice, where do you get these maps on the net ?

force eleven

GFS has Ireland blown to somewhere east of Denmark if this verifies...

935 west of Scotland, and a vicious wind south of this. Long way out though and we all know GFS tends to overdo these. However, it is similar to ECM, which is unusual.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

GFS has Ireland blown to somewhere east of Denmark if this verifies...

935 west of Scotland, and a vicious wind south of this. Long way out though and we all know GFS tends to overdo these. However, it is similar to ECM, which is unusual.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

ECM is actually worse than that. 933mb just off the Donegal coast.



But its 9 days away of course.

Rebelbrowser

force eleven wrote: »

GFS has Ireland blown to somewhere east of Denmark if this verifies...[/url]

At least that would be good news for us snow bunnies later in the winter!

Tactical

I have been watching this potential wind event with much interest, especially following on from Saturday mornings weather in the Southwest.

Outdoor Christmas decorations are certainly objects worth considering as potential hazards, as someone else has already mentioned. I note more and more appearing as we approach Christmas. Seem to remember them being put out much earlier last year, but maybe I'm mistaken. Saturday seen a trampoline flying across a field and out onto a road. A rather shaken owner was taking it apart.

It's just a pity, from a visual point of view, that the peak winds seem likely to be at night time. The only positive is that a lot of people will be indoors , so if it develops into a decent wind event the potential for injury will be much reduced. I remember a good few years ago a w ind event on Christmas eve where slates were being blown off roofs in a large town in the Southwest. Shoppers were scurrying around and were jittery as slates fell to ground. Driving was difficult with trees and even telephone poles being blown down.

Anyhow, I'm wandering off topic now...

Watching the models and people's interperation of them is really interesting. I'm appreciative of the views being offered which makes for very interesting reading.

Tactical

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

At least that would be good news for us snow bunnies later in the winter!

Loving it

What a fantastic idea. That would be Christmas come early. Wind and snow together..... Could it get much better ?:D

tylercollins

cambasque wrote: »

for a novice, where do you get these maps on the net ?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Also be sure to check out http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056531638

maquiladora

Windy.

aisling86

1086 mb (32.08 inches of mercury): Highest Ever Recorded
1030 mb (30.42 inches of mercury): Strong High Pressure System
1013 mb (29.92 inches of mercury): Average Sea Level Pressure
1000 mb (29.54 inches of mercury): Typical Low Pressure System
980 mb (28.95 inches of mercury): CAT 1 Hurricane or a very intense mid-latitude cyclone
950 mb (28.06 inches of mercury): CAT 3 Hurricane
870 mb (25.70 inches of mercury): Lowest Ever Recorded (not including tornadoes)

Could be interesting!!

dopolahpec

Is the GFS right on this? 50 hours to go and nothing like model consensus. Tough to be a pro forecaster on this

ninebeanrows

Interesting new addition courtesy of Meteociel.

ninebeanrows

dopolahpec wrote: »

Is the GFS right on this? 50 hours to go and nothing like model consensus. Tough to be a pro forecaster on this

The only model not showing the intense low is the UKM and seen as 48/50 ECMWF ensembles don't back it up i think it's pretty safe to bin it.

The exact positioning of the low centre could change but it is pretty much nailed on that some place in Ireland, more especially the northwest will get hit by some damaging wind gusts late Wednesday.

Each full feather is 10 knots, half 5kts, triangle yoke is 50kts

Tactical

Each "feather" on the arrow On the chart two posts above represents 10? Mph, knots, kph???

munsterlegend

Tactical wrote: »

I have been watching this potential wind event with much interest, especially following on from Saturday mornings weather in the Southwest.

Outdoor Christmas decorations are certainly objects worth considering as potential hazards, as someone else has already mentioned. I note more and more appearing as we approach Christmas. Seem to remember them being put out much earlier last year, but maybe I'm mistaken. Saturday seen a trampoline flying across a field and out onto a road. A rather shaken owner was taking it apart.

It's just a pity, from a visual point of view, that the peak winds seem likely to be at night time. The only positive is that a lot of people will be indoors , so if it develops into a decent wind event the potential for injury will be much reduced. I remember a good few years ago a w ind event on Christmas eve where slates were being blown off roofs in a large town in the Southwest. Shoppers were scurrying around and were jittery as slates fell to ground. Driving was difficult with trees and even telephone poles being blown down.

Anyhow, I'm wandering off topic now...

Watching the models and people's interperation of them is really interesting. I'm appreciative of the views being offered which makes for very interesting reading.

I was very surprised how windy it was in the south west on Saturday morning considering it was expected to be a west/northwest event.

ninebeanrows

Beginning to look like this system will approach at the height of its development phase, meaning it will be at its most dangerous when it hits with potential for sting jets etc.

GEFS Ensembles churning out backing the Op, a few even take it further south, which may now be a trend with the rapid intensification now happening closer to Ireland.

ninebeanrows

Here is the most dangerous Ensemble solution



Although many others not too far off.

Tabnabs

Tactical wrote: »

Each "feather" on the arrow On the chart two posts above represents 10? Mph, knots, kph???

maquiladora

Tactical wrote: »

Each "feather" on the arrow On the chart two posts above represents 10? Mph, knots, kph???

The barbs show the speed in the knots, the colours show the speed in km/h. Those are gusts, these are the sustained winds:

Tactical

So Donegal shows 43 to 50km/hr sustained with 50 to 55km/hr gusts?

I'm sure I'm reading that incorrectly

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

I was very surprised how windy it was in the south west on Saturday morning considering it was expected to be a west/northwest event.

Here is how Saturday morning looked. For the south and east, the winds on Wednesday night probably won't be any higher than last Saturday. A different story for the west though.

Last Saturday :

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Here is how Saturday morning looked. For the south and east, the winds on Wednesday night probably won't be any higher than last Saturday. A different story for the west though.

Last Saturday :

Thanks for that Maq! Didn't realise it was meant to be as windy on Saturday last..is the xmas day storm still on track? a long way off though.