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WINTER WEATHER 2013/2014 - See Mod Note First Post

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    #602
    matciv
    Registered Users Posts: 1 ✭matciv


    Joe seems to think we are in for a cold December, is he usually accurate with his predictions?


    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 16h
    Make sure the Turbines are working Europe,cold is coming and become king in December pic.twitter.com/sPt2XCbSN2


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    #603
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    GFS and ECM still showing a cold northerly for midweek. Might be snow down to low enough levels in Ulster, but I guess warmish sea temps may modify the airflow despite cold uppers. Be interesting nonetheless


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    #604
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    A genuine chance for some snow showers at times in the north and northwest if the 0Z GFS verified. These details can change a lot 24 hours out though, and this is still about a week away, so no details nailed, but a colder spell/snap does look quite likely now, though it may be just a couple of days.

    XX2jHRi.png


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    #605
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    maquiladora wrote: »
    A genuine chance for some snow showers at times in the north and northwest if the 0Z GFS verified. These details can change a lot 24 hours out though, and this is still about a week away, so no details nailed, but a colder spell/snap does look quite likely now, though it may be just a couple of days.

    XX2jHRi.png

    Ireland getting the bulk of the cold uppers there. More snow potential than the UK for sure. And would you believe it I am due to be in England on the day in question


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    #606
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Lovely Jubbly! :)


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    #607
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    How is the northeast looking for some snow


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    #608
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    How is the northeast looking for some snow

    Based on current output there's a chance that some people in the north east will see some snow (falling at least) especially on higher ground mid week. Now, that is 7 days away though. So be very cautious before telling your friends ;)

    But those charts look sweet for cold. -9 uppers aint nothing to be sniffed at...bbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr


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    #609
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,720 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Bank and lets roll with that chart! :p

    That chart would deliver some beefy showers (rain, hail, sleet and maybe even snow/thunder) to the Dublin area, south of Dublin would be in the IOM shadow and north of Dublin would be in the shadow of NI.


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    #610
    Slashermcguirk
    Registered Users Posts: 1,979 ✭✭✭Slashermcguirk


    Apparently, much colder weather expected from early next week according to Met Eireann website. Long way away but is that the real start of winter emerging. I remember legendary Winter of 2010 / 2011 started getting really cold around that exact time in November. Soon find out i suppose, will never forget that winter, doubt we will ever get that white a Christmas again, I remember about 35cm of snow in the garden in Dubiln on Christmas day 2010


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    #611
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    The GFS is showing the legendary Greenland High in FI, yet the upper air circulating over us looks much less cold than next weeks northerly. There's very little cold to tap into in the east at the moment. Though that will change quickly if the atlantic influence is held at bay


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    #612
    rickdangerouss
    Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    The GFS is showing the legendary Greenland High in FI, yet the upper air circulating over us looks much less cold than next weeks northerly. There's very little cold to tap into in the east at the moment. Though that will change quickly if the atlantic influence is held at bay

    cursnow_asiaeurope.gif

    Snow line in Russia is low for this time of year. Agree with you Dopolahpec, just do not think it will be in time this side of xmas. I see it helping us out in Jan/Feb.


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    #613
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Charts are showing a brief cold snap just outside a reliable time-frame, don't get carried away with media hype.

    Those of you that are new to weather model watching prepare to be disappointed over and over again and for those of you who are veteran's you have the war wounds and should know FI is a dark place place that leaves you scarred!!


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    #614
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Villain wrote: »
    Charts are showing a brief cold snap just outside a reliable time-frame, don't get carried away with media hype.

    Those of you that are new to weather model watching prepare to be disappointed over and over again and for those of you who are veteran's you have the war wounds and should know FI is a dark place place that leaves you scarred!!

    Who's getting carried away? Or are you giving yourself a pep-talk? I think people are excited not because they think it's going to snow next week, though it may, but because winter hasn't even started and the charts are full of promise. The possible cold-snap may be brief but there's no sign of any long lasting warm snap to follow.


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    #615
    jaffusmax
    Registered Users Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭jaffusmax


    Villain wrote: »
    Charts are showing a brief cold snap just outside a reliable time-frame, don't get carried away with media hype.

    Those of you that are new to weather model watching prepare to be disappointed over and over again and for those of you who are veteran's you have the war wounds and should know FI is a dark place place that leaves you scarred!!

    tumblr_lmhme9jkQ61qii6tmo1_250.gif


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    #616
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Villain wrote: »
    Charts are showing a brief cold snap just outside a reliable time-frame, don't get carried away with media hype.

    Those of you that are new to weather model watching prepare to be disappointed over and over again and for those of you who are veteran's you have the war wounds and should know FI is a dark place place that leaves you scarred!!


    True , we all know to look at the trends of multiple runs instead of eye candy of single time frames...

    Heres a the latest 06z GFS ensembles . Alot going for the brief coldsnap that it is. I Dont expect snow here from a northerly but will welcome frost and ice if anything :) , snow for the northern hills and lower places too if theres a nice fresh striaght breeze in the flow .
    280107.png

    520 dam line across most of the country for the day :)
    280108.png


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    #617
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    Who's getting carried away? Or are you giving yourself a pep-talk? I think people are excited not because they think it's going to snow next week, though it may, but because winter hasn't even started and the charts are full of promise. The possible cold-snap may be brief but there's no sign of any long lasting warm snap to follow.

    Well it was a little bit in jest really but every year here people get excited at whats in FI and then moan when it doesn't happen. It's great to look at and discuss but I was just advising people not to get too excited at FI really :)


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    #618
    dopolahpec
    Closed Accounts Posts: 510 ✭✭✭dopolahpec


    Villain wrote: »
    Well it was a little bit in jest really but every year here people get excited at whats in FI and then moan when it doesn't happen. It's great to look at and discuss but I was just advising people not to get too excited at FI really :)

    Personally, I think an upgrade to this is brewing :-)


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    #619
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    Would love to see a bit of sea convection this early in the season. Even though something exceptional is needed at this time of the year to see lying snow at sea-level, the still relatively warm sea can set off some nice fireworks...strong hefty showers and interesting nowcasting ;)


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    #620
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,643 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    the ecm 32 dayer and the long range uk met office outlook did not point to anything colder a week or so ago, so with this in mind how can we trust Gerald Fleming when he states that he see no signs this winter will be a cold one - afterall Met Eireann is always at pains to point out that the furthest they can extend their outlook to is two weeks:confused:

    anyway, it looks like senor pangea's country, Donegal, might be the place to be next week.


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    #621
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    could be some nice thunderstorm activity in the North-West next week too perhaps?


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    #622
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Surprised nobody has commented on a few interesting runs tonight.

    UKM looks cold and now getting in to the more reliable time frames.

    Rukm1201.gif

    Rukm1441.gif


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    #623
    rickdangerouss
    Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    Iceland could be down to -16 in some parts next week, the winds look to be pointing south and west too.

    That is very low for this time of year.

    A good sign for myself. :)


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    #624
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    ECM would create some heavy wintry showers for the east if this came off, hail,sleet, even snow inland of the coast and some sparks!

    ECM1-168.GIF?13-0


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    #625
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Where is IanCarr

    Where is the RAMP :D

    ECM1-192.GIF


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    #626
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    Villain wrote: »
    Charts are showing a brief cold snap just outside a reliable time-frame, don't get carried away with media hype.

    Those of you that are new to weather model watching prepare to be disappointed over and over again and for those of you who are veteran's you have the war wounds and should know FI is a dark place place that leaves you scarred!!

    280141.png

    funny-surprise-ending-glasses.gif


    EDIT : Weathercheck got there before me ! ,

    HERE IT IS!!! :cool::cool::cool:

    5f3a6902248a42d49d489201d814b882


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    #627
    icesnowfrost
    Registered Users Posts: 1,008 ✭✭✭icesnowfrost


    These carts are looking great hope they don't do a u turn


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    #628
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,245 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    These carts are looking great hope they don't do a u turn


    Which means they prob will :-P


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    #629
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    icesnowfrost wrote: »
    These carts are looking great hope they don't do a u turn

    Oh i know right ... this one especially is a beaut! ;)

    Golf-Cart2.jpg


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    #630
    Calibos
    Registered Users Posts: 7,796 ✭✭✭Calibos


    In no way am I interpretting the FI ramping as meaning a damn thing but what kind of charts were coming out on the 13th of November 2010? Or did the magic charts hinting at what was to come not appear till closer to that magic night of the 26th of November. Its mad when one thinks about it. This time 3 years ago we were slightly less than only 2 weeks away from the beginning of a month long snowmageddon :D

    [EDIT] Found It

    ie. even this time 3 years ago the signs were there.


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    #631
    rickdangerouss
    Registered Users Posts: 244 ✭✭rickdangerouss


    Just love this one. Taken from http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055948304&page=50
    nacho libre wrote: »
    would prefer to see the blocking taking place a bit later, as in other years where we had a cold end to November into early December, the winter quite often turned out to be mild overall. also, i fear it could decrease our chances of getting a white christmas. as unless we get a repeat of last year- which is highly unlikely- then the block will be dismantled well before christmas

    Still i'm a bit torn about all this - snow is usually my priority, but after yesterday's storm i'm really in the mood for another storm. i suppose the compromise solution would be a stormy winter at times which is then followed by snowy periods.

    everybody wins- except those rare people who like mild and settled weather:p

    so in conclusion let's hope the low solar activity plays a greater influence this winter than other global signals, which are suggesting it will be mild overall after a cold start.. the low solar activity certainly seemed to have had quite impact last year, where some were saying it was set to be a mild winter!

    Upgrades from now on, the longer this trend goes on the better.


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