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Risk Of Heavy Snow Showers As It Turns Extremely Cold Sunday Night/Monday

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    #2852
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,780 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    dopolahpec wrote: »
    GFS painting a grim picture for Paddy's Weekend. Lots of rain. Lots of rain for days. Cold rain. Hill snow. Northerly incursions.

    Snow or no snow, looks pretty grim alright at the moment.


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    #2853
    snowstorm445
    Registered Users Posts: 932 ✭✭✭snowstorm445


    Hi all. No snow down here as you probably know (well done to Waterford btw!) but very cold and bitter, a sharp frost this morning. Was even able to catch a glimpse of some glistening Galtee Mountains (completely white with snow).

    Overall, we can't really complain down here, as we got a good few days of snow earlier in the year and some beefy snow showers yesterday (even if the snow didn't settle). Hopefully next winter will prove fruitful for all in terms of snow. :)


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    #2854
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    To_be_confirmed wrote: »
    Uppers like that won't work for most places! I'd rather warm weather than see Three Rock in Dublin capped with snow yet again! The weather will be interesting at least.

    Don't get me wrong I much prefer dry over wet weather. But we are not far from -8 uppers. Although it's straw clutching to manage sea level snow with even a modified setup, the potential is there.

    What are we Irish if not optimistic?

    I recall a time of Beat Croatia and Italy then draw with Spain. Twas a certainty....


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    #2855
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Nabber wrote: »
    Don't get me wrong I much prefer dry over wet weather. But we are not far from -8 uppers. Although it's straw clutching to manage sea level snow with even a modified setup, the potential is there.

    What are we Irish if not optimistic?

    I recall a time of Beat Croatia and Italy then draw with Spain. Twas a certainty....

    Well it only really got good last night when I started talking about Ray Houghton, so I'm gonna stick with ya here.

    Opel Jersey.. Check
    Bobble Hat.. Check
    Shamrock for Bobble Hat.. Check.

    Bring it.


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    #2856
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Looking at the pictures from northern France making me very jealous ! What could have been!


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    #2857
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Looking at the pictures from northern France making me very jealous ! What could have been!

    Jersey of all places too


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    #2858
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Immense ECM 12z, unsettled and cold. Probably lots of snow inland and on high ground at times.

    Very low thicknesses even if 850s not spectacular.
    ECM1-168.GIF?12-0


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    #2859
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    This one would be a snow event, could be a few earlier too!!

    My oh my, incredible output

    ECM1-192.GIF?12-0


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    #2860
    Weathering
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,101 ✭✭✭Weathering


    Bbc ni fc gives snow tonight and widely tomorrow morning esp across northern and western Ulster


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    #2861
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Yes latest hirlam showed snowy showers pushing south into Leinster but not much support from other models.


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    #2862
    fr wishy washy
    Registered Users Posts: 882 ✭✭✭fr wishy washy


    For when?


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    #2863
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    fr wishy washy wrote: »
    For when?
    The morning.


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    #2864
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Important to remember that 850hPa temps were not exceptional in 2010, yes the days were good few hours shorter than mid March but the upcoming spell pronged by the ECM combined with the Irish Sea being a bit colder could still be significant. The very low thicknesses are particularly interested.
    Historic examples

    850s 19 December 2010
    Rrea00220101219.gif

    Remember the heavy snow showers for Dublin on Christmas Eve?

    Rrea00220101224.gif


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    #2865
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    My point is combining the forecast low thicknesses could negate the marginality of the -5 to -8c uppers.


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    #2866
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Immense ECM 12z, unsettled and cold. Probably lots of snow inland and on high ground at times.

    Very low thicknesses even if 850s not spectacular.
    ECM1-168.GIF?12-0
    When you said uppers weren't great i thought you meant they were -4s . they are -8s now I've looked so not too shabby (pulls sled back out of attic).


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    #2867
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    When you said uppers weren't great i thought you meant they were -4s . they are -8s now I've looked so not too shabby (pulls sled back out of attic).

    Everything looks puny after our -12s!!


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    #2868
    Tom Cruises Left Nut
    Registered Users Posts: 9,010 ✭✭✭Tom Cruises Left Nut


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    Everything looks puny after our -12s!!

    GFS is great in Fi !


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    #2869
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,372 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Would say snow on hills (especially northwest) by weekend and Monday, with a very cold rain at sea level. Hail showers in early stages before low gets away to the east more. In between sleet and mixing. Time for this to change so just a sketchy long-range view ... coldest uppers are timed for Sunday night/Monday so that would be the peak for any snow risk but so far I would say that is mainly above 300m.


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    #2870
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,013 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    As I'm on my phone, archive searching is harder, so could anyone get up the 850's for the epic high ground NI snowstorm from 2010 March 29/30/31st. Down here we had a good 8-10 hours of snow, only a degree or so away from settling on all surfaces I say, considering how it eventually began to build up on concrete when the system was clearing. Will be interesting to see the uppers from then, nearly sure they were nothing more than -6/-8.


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    #2871
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    -5c and falling to -6c briefly John ;)


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    #2872
    John.Icy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,013 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    Weathercheck wrote: »
    -5c and falling to -6c briefly John ;)

    Well then, I guess we can class tonight's runs as very promising!

    The snow may melt as tediously quick once the sun shines, but it's still nice to see it fall and accumulate if only briefly.

    Run of the night to NAVGEM...ridiculous for March! GFS isn't too shabby either ;)


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    #2873
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    500 hPa temps look quite interesting for saturday. I feel there will be a lot of snow over 300 metres or so and possibly at lower levels if precipitation occurs at night. Nice slack low


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    #2874
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Improved GFS in the nearer term

    Look at the set-up, near enough the holy grail synoptic.

    Rtavn1381.png


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    #2875
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    I feel like i am talking to myself at the moment! I expect lots of attention in here come the weekend!

    19 March comes and the cold keeps coming.

    Rtavn1561.png


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    #2876
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    mighty mighty run, look at the pressure rises over the pole. Amazing model output, pity it isn't January but interesting times ahead nonetheless


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    #2877
    lucernarian
    Registered Users Posts: 9,235 ✭✭✭lucernarian


    Are we getting much support from the other models for this outcome? Also 6 days is a good bit out, in Fantasy Island territory


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    #2878
    fr wishy washy
    Registered Users Posts: 882 ✭✭✭fr wishy washy


    It's too raw to jump back in again:mad:


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    #2879
    Deank
    Registered Users Posts: 7,238 ✭✭✭Deank


    fr wishy washy wrote: »
    It's too raw to jump back in again:mad:
    Give it a day or two, you'll be feeling better then and if the charts have gone tits up you'll have no need to jump in for more punishment:-)


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    #2880
    red_bairn
    Registered Users Posts: 2,342 ✭✭✭red_bairn


    I don't mind more snow for my birthday on the 20th. =)


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    #2881
    Smidge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,541 ✭✭✭Smidge


    @Weathercheck..
    What % would you give a chart like that(ie so far in FI)of coming to pass?
    It is a nice bit of eye-candy though;)


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