Flood risk in the South and East, very heavy rain and strong winds, Tues - Fri

Su Campu wrote: »

There was an error in the 12Z synop report, where 69661 (966 mm in 6 hours) was inserted instead of 69961 (996 = 0.6 mm in 6 hours).

AAXX 25121 03955 11482 80311 10067 20045 39600 49792 55001 69661 76062 886//
333 86715 87625 90710 91118=

I myself here had 25.8 mm since 7 am this morning, whereas nearby Dublin and Casement had only 16 and 17 mm, respectively.

thanks Su for that info

Sligo has had 0mm on the rain gauge today but a few short lived showers so prob just under 1mm! We save all our rain until mid Summer!

killiney bay today

complete non event here !!!!

Its five to midnight....and its over to Met Eireann with Gerry Murphy."Over 30mm's recorded in places"

Tornando9 wrote: »

40mm recorded here today at the foot of the mountains.

Mountains? I guess you mean Kill Hill?:)

pauldry wrote: »

I didnt see Gerrys Forecast tonight but it probably went something like this

Hello there AAAAAAAAANNNNND a very good evening.

Well we did see a lot of rain and wind today with up 30mm in places we can expect more in the coming days

If we look at the rainfall predictive sequence we can expect most of the rain and wind to fall in ulster no leinster and munster.

We can expect temperatures of 8 to 11c

Looking ahead to the weekend we can expect more rain especially in leinster and munster

well thats all for me for the moment ill leave you with the five day summary.:pac::pac::pac:

hahha , ahhh brilliant... same thing every time ; Hello there AAAAAAAAANNNNND a very good evening.

He was on the Radio tonight.Evelyn was on the tv.

Forecast and storm recap
_________________________

First of all, would assume that we could compare three forecasts at least, Met-E, boards (my thread) and to whatever extent different, this thread which would then involve several variations. But I don't have time or inclination to try all that, for what it's worth I believe that my own forecast was not vastly different in details from the public forecast although I chose to call the event a "storm" which is meant more in the colloquial sense than the technical (35 knot winds) sense as in "tropical storm" or storm force winds.

The main forecast problem was a lack of heavy rain in the southeast, in particular to the west of the higher ground in Wicklow but also in coastal Wicklow and Wexford. Amounts have been reported in the 5-15 mm range from Cork around to south of Dublin. A bit further north, amounts reported are in the range of 25 to 40 mms so far. That is fairly close to the implied amounts given that the storm forecasts were for a period not yet ended (and more rain will certainly fall in Leinster).

Wind speeds were just about as expected although here again some in the southeast might have been expecting higher sustained winds, we did stress that wind speeds would be reduced by proximity to the low in Wexford, and also that winds would back ESE to NE which tends to reduce speeds on the south coast somewhat. But I would acknowledge that winds were generally a bit over-forecast for the south, not so much for east-central including the Dublin coast where they reached the predicted maximum (60 mph, from the 52 kts reported in this thread). Tidal predictions were good value, I hope there was no significant damage but the situation was close to minor damage conditions (too close to leave out of a forecast).

The northwest remained dry and this was in our forecast and I think in other forecasts too. Eventually the backlash from the weakening storm will catch some of those dry areas later today and what comes next could be sleet or wet snow in some areas.

The storm is not over and some places could see 10-20 mms further rain, perhaps locally 20-30. I was contacted by reporters on Monday for comments on the flood threat and said that I thought the drainage systems could cope given the long duration and the previous dry soil conditions. But I could see the potential for one or two streams to go over banks slightly and also fields could flood in some areas. I think there's a mention of this for Meath, Kildare and surrounding counties -- not sure if anyone could confirm anything quite that extensive but would imagine it's fairly soggy underfoot in parts of Leinster.

In terms of the model performances, I think the centre of this low was well diagnosed for central pressure by all models and the track was probably better handled by the GFS than most although variations were slight. The track ended up being almost across the Scilly Isles northeast into south central Wales with what looked like the remnants of the old gale centre in sync moving northeast over Cornwall into the Severn valley. All real-time maps showed the actual centre further west than the rotational centre of the radar returns, so I assume re-analysis might show a double-centered low on those tracks. This was not enough of a model error to explain the lack of rainfall in the southeast. Rather, I think that was mainly due to orographic effects in Wales and then in Ireland drying the flow in that arc of the circulation, while the arc further north got hit as modelled (with a longer fetch over the Irish Sea).

Realizing that the event is not over, I'll still take the opportunity to say thanks to those who contributed obs, thoughts and comments. This gives our many readers a more detailed overview of what's likely or possible and the range of uncertainty involved (and my forecast thread indirectly benefits as I try to factor in what I read in advance on these threads).

One final thought, it is probably better to err on the side of caution although 100% accuracy remains the ultimate goal for all who make forecasts (I assume).

Just checked my home made rain guage from yesterday ( 7up bottle all the way ) and from the time period of 9am yesterday to 9 am today i have a rough estimate of 22mm here. WHO needs fancy technology aye??? ha




*shakes saving jar labeled " Davis vantage pro 2 " ......*sigh* *

Did anyone here about Tornadoes hit Rugby and Essex, residents claim

Suspected tornadoes have struck two areas of England damaging buildings and uprooting trees.

Residents in Rugby in Warwickshire said a tornado had "ripped a path" through properties toppling a chimney stack and knocking down fences.

Meanwhile, more than 100 miles away, farm buildings were blown down killing 20 chickens near Halstead in Essex.

No-one was hurt. Weather forecasters said there was a "small risk" of more tornadoes later in the week.:eek:

Essex Weather Centre said it had detected a strong thunderstorm in the Halstead area of Essex on Wednesday, which could have been a precursor to the tornado.

It said: "Further heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the next few days. The small risk remains of a tornado developing somewhere across the region, but is very unlikely in the same area as Wednesday."

Continue reading the main story
What is a tornado?

Ben Rich, BBC Midlands Today weather presenter

Tornadoes are perhaps more common in Britain than you might think, but they are generally not on the scale you see in the US where the thunderstorms are more severe.

Tornadoes form within very intense thunder storms where the atmosphere is very unstable.

Air rushes upwards very quickly and begins to spin, a bit like water around a bath plug, producing a funnel cloud.

If the column of air keeps spinning for long enough sometimes it will reach the ground- and that is what we call a tornado.

Warwickshire Police said a number of homes were damaged in the Wentworth Road area of Rugby on Wednesday.

Resident Jamie Gray said the tornado had also "ripped a path" through properties in Glebe Crescent.

The tornado is believed to have struck Rugby at about 18:00 BST.

Another tornado is reported to have swept through the hamlet of White Ash Green in Essex at about 16:30 BST.

Farmer Alan Barrow said he was lifted off his feet and thrown to the ground. He said the tornado also blew apart his farm buildings and a chicken coop at Brook St Farm in White Ash Green.

Tony Blackwell said he also experienced the tornado in Essex which he estimated had lasted for about three minutes before moving off.

He said: "We had hailstones first of all and we came outside and we saw all the debris flailing and spinning around in a big circle in the sky.

"Then we could see all the trees bending over and we realised it was a tornado.

Whose trampoline?
"We get strong winds here but I've never seen anything like a twister before."

Roy Mushing, from Rugby, said he had gone out to to buy a lottery ticket when he was caught up in the high winds.


Alan Barrow says the wind lifted him off his feet
He said: "All of a sudden there was this big gush of wind.

"It bent the brolly up and spun me round and a good job it did because it spun me towards the bungalows where all the tiles was flying off the roof and flying into the main road."

He said he managed to make it safely back to his house in Wentworth Road.

Beryl Clarke, who lives in the street, said: "At about 5.45 there was a roaring and we thought something was coming through the front window.

"We rushed to the dining room and everything was flying up in the air, the greenhouse was going up, the glass was going everywhere.

"The shed came over the fence from next door, it was like something out of a film.

"Next door's got a trampoline outside their dining room and I don't know where it's come from. Everybody's got everyone else's stuff."