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Leaf price drop - game changer?

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Comments

  • #92
    Mr Benevolent
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,433 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I'm an electrical engineer by training. I'd love a practical EV.

    They just haven't been invented yet.

    Define 'practical' from an engineering perspective and then from a customer's perspective and you'll notice a conflict ;)


  • #93
    beazee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭beazee


    unkel wrote: »
    No regen on the motorway, love ;)

    As long as we're talking Irish motorways and doing 120 kmh there's always some regen breaking involved being it micras and the likes.


  • #94
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    beazee wrote: »
    Do I live in Dublin? Moved out in 2008, can't see the point :)

    Diesel is not for everyone (>20K km mileage pa)
    Petrol is not for everyone (petrol cost)
    Calor gas conversions are not for everyone (infrastructure + boot space)
    Electric is not for everyone (range)

    Why is then everyone here to bash EVs I wonder :)
    Thanks for selecting one line of my post and ignoring the main point.

    This is a midway technology. Like the betamax. Like CRT televisions (remember those costing thousands, then technology evolved making them obsolete)

    Mark my words. These EVs are like the early PCs before microchips.


  • #95
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    I'm an electrical engineer by training. I'd love a practical EV.

    They just haven't been invented yet.
    +1

    If an EV is developed with a sub 30 min charge time (filling a tank currently in my golf takes under 5 min) and a 400mile+ range (my golf makes 450-500 miles on a tank) then I will buy one.

    Until that point its ICE all the way. I cant help but feeling, looking at the EV global sales, that the vast majority of the world's populous agrees :D


  • #96
    beazee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭beazee


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Say you're flying out to London, leaving the car at the airport, returning 2 days later. How do you arrange to have the car fully charged for the return trip?

    Two spots at Terminal 2 parking*, park-connect-fly out-fly in-disconnect-leave parking

    *not compatible with Leaf atm :)


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  • #97
    unkel
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 59,828 ✭✭✭✭unkel


    beazee wrote: »
    As long as we're talking Irish motorways and doing 120 kmh there's always some regen breaking involved being it micras and the likes.

    You don't seem to realise that doing 120km/h on a motorway without regen gives a longer range than if there is any regen going on? :p

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  • #98
    beazee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭beazee


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Looking at post #38, I don't see a single day with over 47 km listed. I'd have more than that done before starting work, every day, at speeds which would have totally flattened the battery.

    At this is the reason you drive diesel. At least you should have.


  • #99
    beazee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭beazee


    unkel wrote: »
    You don't seem to realise that doing 120km/h on a motorway without regen gives a longer range than if there is any regen going on? :p

    How familiar are you with Prius and Leaf technology?
    Regen = regenerative braking is not something you can switch off. Regen is a feature of electric motor to give you the feeling of ICE car (one we are all so used to it). Every time you get your foot off the accelerator the car is losing it's momentum. Mostly due to friction on gearbox, engine cylinders and the likes...

    If electric motor setup was not tweaked to include this momentum loss due to mechanical friction you'll had that strange feeling the EV car is behaving in different way. 1st stage of regen has been served.

    2nd stage is every single time you gently press your brakes. EVs are getting this energy back to charge the battery (mechanical brakes come in effect at ca. 30kmh in Prius 2, not sure on the setup for Leaf). In case of your current car (and mine) all this energy is wasted on heating up brake cylinders/calipers whatever the stuff you have there.


  • #100
    kippy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,387 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    An interesting topic in general and there have been a few here lately on these electric cars.

    I would LOVE to ditch my direct reliance of fossil fuels and go for one of these type cars but I've thought about it and at the moment a few things put me off although I am not sure how factually correct they are.
    At the moment my wife and I both have diesel cars. She travels about 45K round trip per day to work, and a few trips in and around town in the evenings.
    I wouldnt use my car that much but I do require it for work from time to time when I could potentially do 240k round trip on a day.
    We have a young child.
    From time to time, we would head to Dublin from Galway or west Mayo from Galway.

    Looks, strangely enough, aren't at all important for me but practicility, a small bit of comfort and overtaking poke, as well as costs are very important.
    I tend not to buy cars brand new and the maximum I would pay for a car would be around the 15K mark.

    I don't think the leaf is very practical for an expanding family, there are still not enough charge points around the place, and there are massive questions over the battery technology and the longevity of it, as well as the fact that is still well off my price point.

    I assume servicing the car is a lot less of a chore (possibly not required at all) in comparison to and ICE, obviously there are massive fuel and tax savings (any changes with insurance?).
    The range itself wouldnt be that big of a deal 90% of the time for me anyway and for the other 10% if there were enough charging points it wouldn't bother me on all but the motorway trip to Dublin.

    Perhaps in a few years time, when the technology has moved on a bit more or even if the second price of these things comes down, it might be worth replacing one car with an EV, however the leaf does not fit my needs.

    EDIT: Just as an extra - this is all based on the current price of fuel, if, as anticipated fuel continues to rise, the game will be changed, but not by the car itself.


  • #101
    Sleepy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,620 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    I'd be too concerned about depreciation and lack of range to ever see myself in the market for one.

    My Corolla is 13 years old this year and will hit 200,000 miles in the next month or two. I just can't imagine an electric car ever lasting that long. Even if it were to do so, an EV in 13 years time should be so much further advanced than the current Leaf, it'd only have value as a curiosity rather than as a practical vehicle.

    Sure my commute to work is only 23km's but occasionally I'll have to drive to Cork, Donegal etc. A car that can't be trusted to do that in a round trip without a lengthy re-charge simply isn't an option for most people.

    Range will be an issue on EV's until they can either do 500 miles to a charge, can be fully charged in the same 5 minutes it takes one to fill a tank at the garage or have swappable batteries which could be replaced in that same 5 minutes in a garage (i.e. the batteries become the property of Esso / Shell etc.).

    A "game changer" is a fundamental shift, in the case of EV's that would have to involve range / long-term value proposition, not simply a price drop imho.

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  • #102
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Looking at post #38, I don't see a single day with over 47 km listed. I'd have more than that done before starting work, every day, at speeds which would have totally flattened the battery.

    Are you having a laugh? Please read #38 again! This time look more carefully how it is laid out. Day 1 is well over 47km and day 3 has over 170km. Lots of others days are well over 47km as well. If you look at the bottom you will see my Leaf covered just under 2,500 kilometers in March. How could I do that if I didn't travel over 47 kilometers on any day????


  • #103
    beazee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭beazee


    Max Power1 wrote: »
    Thanks for selecting one line of my post and ignoring the main point.
    No probs Max. You can count on me.
    You are just looking for impossible. EVs are as they are. No point dragging 600m range battery (huge heavy) when in fact most of the daily drive is below 100km.

    It's like you were looking for a sporty, big engine petrol car with "diesel features" like low consumption...
    People learned to accept diesel for that kind of job, petrol for another.

    It is the same case for electric cars. And in most cases EVs could replace some of the low mileage petrol cars of today. They could if they were another €5K cheaper and the infrastructure was here.


  • #104
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    unkel wrote: »
    I don't think he is. The €80 per month Renault is charging completely annihilates the fuel saving of electric over diesel. If batteries were really lasting an average of 15 years and then cost 7.5k to replace, Renault would charge about 50-60 (including insurance, interest, overheads etc.)

    Or look at it from another point - any 5 or 6 year old EV with a broken battery is an economic write-off. Economic write offs of ICE vehicles of that age because of failure is pretty much unheard off

    A big worry, the long term on the batteries

    Buy new and sell it while the battery is still good or buy with a leased battery = good

    Buy second hand = not so good in terms of risks...

    No one is saying they will cost 7.5k to replace, except you and perhaps Zubeneschamali :) I already stated EV's use a traction battery which stresses different cells to different degrees. The battery in the Nissan Leaf is actually 48 cells and these can be replaced individually to restore lost capacity.

    leaf-grndbrk-03-630.jpg

    I've already pointed out that they are not worthless when they drop to 80% capacity. They obviously still have the potential to power your car or could be used later in life to power your home or sold to utility companies to use as storage for renewable's.

    Where is this idea that in 10 years time you will be left with a battery pack that will cost you money to dispose of coming from? I'll be delighted to use it in my home to store night rate electricity and run my home during the day off it. I'll also be delighted then to put a better battery in my Nissan Leaf that will have more capacity at considerably reduced cost. It's just changing a battery!!

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/yonicohen/2012/03/21/envias-energy-dense-battery-could-cut-electric-vehicle-costs/
    But Envia Systems recently announced a breakthrough that could significantly reduce the price of electric vehicles. The California-based startup revealed that it had developed a rechargeable lithium-ion battery with nearly twice the energy density of today’s batteries. If commercialized, Envia’s battery could cut the price of car batteries in half.

    “We increased the energy density to 400 wh/kg [watt-hour per kilogram],” said Envia CEO Atul Kapadia. “Envia is enabling the [electric car] revolution. Not in the future. Not with some cute technology. But right now.”

    Progress toward better batteries has been steady, but slow, in recent years. To accelerate advances, the Department of Energy created a program, Batteries for Electrical Energy Storage in Transportation (BEEST), to fund research into lower cost battery technologies. In 2009, Envia received a $4 million grant from BEEST, which is administered by the DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy (ARPA-E).


  • #105
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    beazee wrote: »
    No probs Max. You can count on me.
    You are just looking for impossible. EVs are as they are. No point dragging 600m range battery (huge heavy) when in fact most of the daily drive is below 100km.

    It's like you were looking for a sporty, big engine petrol car with "diesel features" like low consumption...
    People learned to accept diesel for that kind of job, petrol for another.

    It is the same case for electric cars. And in most cases EVs could replace some of the low mileage petrol cars of today. They could if they were another €5K cheaper and the infrastructure was here.

    But the fact remains that soon (when we reach peak oil) we will need to replace all petrol & diesel cars. And the fact also remains that EVs are not the answer as they just dont have the range.
    Yes they will work for some, but not the majority.


  • #106
    beazee
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,314 ✭✭✭beazee


    Max Power1 wrote: »
    But the fact remains that soon (when we reach peak oil) we will need to replace all petrol & diesel cars. And the fact also remains that EVs are not the answer as they just dont have the range.
    Yes they will work for some, but not the majority.
    You got it wrong. You will still be able to choose petrol & diesel over EV.
    You will have your range at a significant premium of fuel cost.

    Some will pay the premium. Others will wait at the charging station.

    Peak Oil is not that the fuel is over. It's going to be that taking a car for shopping will cost more than the shopping itself.


  • #107
    Mr Benevolent
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,433 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    LIGHTNING wrote: »
    Id love a cheap electric car but that aint happening for the moment.

    Me too. If a company brought out a Twizy with proper weathertight doors and no battery lease charge I'd buy it.


  • #108
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    beazee wrote: »
    You got it wrong. You will still be able to choose petrol & diesel over EV.
    You will have your range at a significant premium of fuel cost.

    Some will pay the premium. Others will wait at the charging station.

    Peak Oil is not that the fuel is over. It's going to be that taking a car for shopping will cost more than the shopping itself.
    Not if it costs 300 euro to fill the tank I wont.
    I know what peak oil means. And its not that. Peak oil is when all the easier to excavate oil is used up and the cost of extraction combined with ever diminishing supply of finite fuel drives the price out of the reach of sensible use. Nothing to do with the cost relative to shopping.

    When fuel reaches a level that is not sustainable for the general middle class person, the motor companies that currently produce ICE cars will have to produce something else (or something super effecient like 300mpg ICE cars) to stay in business. Otherwise people just wont use fossil fuels until a real successor comes in, offering all the benefits (including range) of ICEs, without the flaws of EVs.

    Look. As I said numerous times, id love an EV. They are cheap to run but resemble a normal car. Give me an EV with future technology that can have all the benefits of ICE without the IC, then ill buy it. Otherwise its soz - ta but no ta - a viewpoint that seems to be borne out by the motor buying populous.


  • #109
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    LIGHTNING wrote: »
    Id love a cheap electric car but that aint happening for the moment.

    I dont mean to take the mick but it seems like every time you post you have a link to some article about a company that soon will be able produce a battery that weighs nothing and will recharge in the time it takes to make a cup of tea :pac:

    That particular battery pack was tested by a US government agency and verified to have that energy density. I don't see the problem with my postings. A lot of people do make good points against EV's, they are not a good fit for everyone at the moment. On the other hand, IMO a lot more people make postings against EV's based on their feelings about EV's.

    Example: Some laptop lithium batteries exploded, so therefore you get a lot of posts about maybe the Leaf will explode when you press the start button. But as jackbauer pointed out, there are at least 27 different types of lithium batteries based on different cathode chemistry's, the battery pack in the Leaf is completely different to what you have in your mobile phone or laptop. That and of course the fact it got top marks in the EuroNCAP

    http://www.euroncap.com/results/nissan/leaf/2012/432.aspx



    More links to facts, figures and even a video this time :)


  • #110
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    Max Power1 wrote: »
    Not if it costs 300 euro to fill the tank I wont.
    I know what peak oil means. And its not that. Peak oil is when all the easier to excavate oil is used up and the cost of extraction combined with ever diminishing supply of finite fuel drives the price out of the reach of sensible use. Nothing to do with the cost relative to shopping.

    When fuel reaches a level that is not sustainable for the general middle class person, the motor companies that currently produce ICE cars will have to produce something else (or something super effecient like 300mpg ICE cars) to stay in business. Otherwise people just wont use fossil fuels until a real successor comes in, offering all the benefits (including range) of ICEs, without the flaws of EVs.

    Look. As I said numerous times, id love an EV. They are cheap to run but resemble a normal car. Give me an EV with future technology that can have all the benefits of ICE without the IC, then ill buy it. Otherwise its soz - ta but no ta - a viewpoint that seems to be borne out by the motor buying populous.

    There is a whole cycle of research and development that has to be gone through before your product reaches production and eventually into the consumers hands. The battery I have in my Nissan Leaf is technology Nissan probably started work on 5 or 6 years ago. The technology that will have greater capacity and more importantly quicker recharging times already exists, it just hasn't gotten to the showroom floor yet.

    http://www.gizmag.com/nissan-10-minute-ev-charger/20121/
    If there are two obstacles that are still keeping the general public from embracing electric cars, those would have to be the vehicles' limited driving range and long charging times. Well, Nissan has achieved a major milestone regarding one of those two problems - last week, Japan's Nikkei news agency reported that the automaker has developed an experimental system that can fully charge an EV battery in just ten minutes.

    The system incorporates a capacitor in which the electrode is made from a combination of tungsten oxide and vanadium oxide, instead of the traditional carbon. This change is said to drastically boost the power of the charger, which is what allows it to work so quickly. On the batteries that were tested, no significant effects were noted regarding their storage capacity or voltage.

    The charger is apparently half the size of Nissan's existing fast charger, and is said to work with batteries from a variety of manufacturers. It may take up to a decade, however, before it's commercialized.


  • #111
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    Sesshoumaru Im not sure why you quoted me there - you seem to be agreeing with my sentiments on this thread and not disagreeing :confused:


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  • #112
    vibe666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,016 ✭✭✭✭vibe666


    there's actually a lot of advances in battery technology in the pipeline at the moment. things like more efficient electric motors and regen braking, ultra fast charging taking only a few minutes, higher capacity batteries, lighter batteries and breakthroughs in solar charging that could make things like solar charging windows or paint or similar technologies a practical reality. wireless charging, so you could have a charging strip built into the road to wirelessly top up your battery as you drive along main roads so you only need to be 'off the grid' so to speak if you're not on a major route with built in wireless charging.

    of course who knows which of these or other technologies actually turn into commercial products, maybe all of them, maybe none, but i'm sure that now that people like Nissan, renault, bmw and others are actually making an effort to bring more EV's to market that it will make a proper network of charging points worthwhile (even in little old Ireland), more of these types of new technology will be worth investing in and more and more innovations will make it to market and maybe there will be practical upgrades for existing EV's (or even practical conversions for ICE vehicles) as new innovations come to market.

    or maybe i'm just dreaming. :)


  • #113
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    unkel wrote: »
    Well it is based on my assumption that the Leaf uses half of its power at 120km/h. Unless someone can prove I am completely wrong here, we'll go with that assumption :)

    Perhaps at 90km/h it would only use a quarter of engine power, meaning the car could go for 72 minutes (it is 36 minutes at 120km/h - I rounded it down for dramatic effect :pac:)

    So if you're willing to drive real slow, you can still go Dublin to Galway with only one stop in the middle...

    Now in case anyone thinks I am knocking EVs - not so. I'd say they would be exceptionally well suited as taxis in Dublin provided there are fast chargers at major taxi ranks and provided the battery is under warranty / leased

    I've already driven from Dublin to Galway and back again in one day. You need to stop at the FCP in Athlone. Obviously you need a charge in Galway as well. But once you reach Galway there are slow chargers and fast chargers. Also pottering around Galway uses next to nothing compared to travelling on the motorway.

    It's not just speed though, gradient is important as well. I used noticeably less power doing Athlone to Dublin than I did doing Dublin to Athlone.

    The Leaf does have an energy info display that can be accessed through the main touch screen computer on the console. It displays energy usage in real time. If you fancy assisting me we could do a few runs on the M4 between Lucan and Celbridge? We can record the video evidence :D

    Leafscreen_2_610x404.jpg


  • #114
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    Max Power1 wrote: »
    Sesshoumaru Im not sure why you quoted me there - you seem to be agreeing with my sentiments on this thread and not disagreeing :confused:

    Maybe I misread the sentiment? My apologies! I thought the general gist was better range and charging times were so far off, EV's would just never be practical in the short to medium term? Sorry if I picked you up wrong! I might have confused your post with someone else's :)


  • #115
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Sesshoumaru wrote: »
    This time look more carefully how it is laid out.

    My bad: no single trip is over 47 km. I'd have more than that done in one trip before work, at speeds that would have completely flattened the battery.


  • #116
    Paparazzo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭Paparazzo


    I wonder what would happen if we all converted to EV's in the next 5 years? The government would lose out on all that petrol excise duty and motor tax.
    beazee wrote: »
    Why is then everyone here to bash EVs I wonder :)
    No one is "bashing" electric cars! Just pointing out very valid reasons why they're not suitable for certain peoples lives.
    Pointing out range and charging problems defnitely isn't bashing them.


  • #117
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    Just on the point about how long batteries last. My original car manual that came with my Leaf, advised not to fast charge more than once a month. Now these 27,000 Leaf's sold worldwide all have internet connections and constantly send data back to Nissan. Some of the other guys who had their cars serviced in the last few weeks were also given a new owners manual. The new manual reverses what the original stated and says there is no problem fast charging your car multiple times a month, week or even day.

    Why would Nissan change this advise? I would say it is pretty clear that the data all Nissan Leaf's are updating back to HQ in Japan is saying the batteries are doing better than they expected or hoped for.


  • #118
    Max Power1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,179 ✭✭✭✭Max Power1


    Sesshoumaru wrote: »
    Maybe I misread the sentiment? My apologies! I thought the general gist was better range and charging times were so far off, EV's would just never be practical in the short to medium term? Sorry if I picked you up wrong! I might have confused your post with someone else's :)
    My general sentiment (which I intended) was that the current EV technology will be quickly outdated by future developments, at which point the current EVs will be worthless.
    But in future, the future EVs could well be practical (once they develop technology to give the future EVs similar range to current ICEs).

    I mean, didnt most early M5s have ranges of just around 200 miles? Even to get that in an EV would be a big deal, and make them more useable imo


  • #119
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    beazee wrote: »
    Two spots at Terminal 2 parking*

    Bookable in advance? Because rolling up to find two Leaves already plugged in would be a sickener.


  • #120
    Sesshoumaru
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,897 ✭✭✭Sesshoumaru


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    My bad: no single trip is over 47 km. I'd have more than that done in one trip before work, at speeds that would have completely flattened the battery.

    Define trip? Nissan Carwings says one trip is the part in between turning on my car and turning off my car. I drive from Celbridge to Bray and that is one trip according to Carwings, I then travel home and that is another trip according to Carwings. I consider the entire journey my "trip".


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  • #121
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,644 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    beazee wrote: »
    How familiar are you with Prius and Leaf technology?

    We don't need to be. Slowing down from 140 km/hr (for an energy-saving Leaf/nun in a Micra ahead) and then speeding up again, even if you regen some of the energy, is going to be less than 100% efficient. Everything is less than 100% efficient.


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