Leaf price drop - game changer?

keithclancy

savagecabbages wrote: »

Oil will never go down in price, and we're due another oil/fuel crisis once the Middle East rears up in a big way -which it will!

Once that happens we'll all see Sesshoumaru humming past us in his Leaf while we queue at the only pumps in town:p

That would be all well and good, but Natural Gas is affected by the price of Oil since it has been traditionally pegged to the price of oil.

And Gazprom, one of the main suppliers for Europe are not really any better than Oil companies in the middle east.

Ireland has a massive reliance on Gas Fired Turbines due to its ability to ramp up very quickly, this is needed when you have renewable sources
http://www.esb.ie/main/about-esb/power-stations.jsp

Basically when the TSO sees a dip from one of the Wind farms, they contact the Plant and tell it to crank up the juice.

The French are pretty immune to spikes in Gas prices since they have a massive reliance on Nuclear and the Germans use Coal, which is available to them, but it gets more expensive the deeper you have to go.

Just saying, because it came from the wall doesn't mean that power came from a renewable source, if your with Airtricity it just means your money that went to Airtricity Retail for the KW/hrs they sent out somewhere on the grid.

Electricity Prices are subject to rises also, just not as quickly due to the buffer between Energy Retail and Energy Wholesale

kippy

MYOB wrote: »

Well seeing as the subsidy on the car, the free installation of a charging point, etc is done entirely down to alleged "green credentials", it is a rather important point.

EV's have poor green credentials as it is, and they become brutal if one is being bought as a replacement for a functioning ICE car or as a second car to an ICE car.

No more so than the scrappage scheme? (replacing a perfectly functional car with a newer one)

Ultimately, from my point of view, in three or four years I may decide to replace my at that stage possibly non functioniong car with a second hand leaf, depending on price, if only to reduce my reliance on the ICE.

savagecabbages

@kiethclancy
I know we rely on gas a lot too, but overall our ratio of fossil/renewal is improving with more renewal sources coming onstream. I know electricity prices will increase, but not at the same rate as oil prices...

What id love down the line, would be the possibility to charge my car using my own turbine (i live out the country), but have no idea how practical that will ever become...

L1011

kippy wrote: »

No more so than the scrappage scheme? (replacing a perfectly functional car with a newer one)

Didn't agree with that either; or with penalising owners of the exact same car/engine combo with the wrong year on the plate for tax purposes.

n97 mini

MYOB wrote: »

let alone that EVs are worse than ICE cars for that;

EV's have less parts, no oils, no exhaust treatment system, no engine block.

They have a motor. No more environmentally damaging than the alternator in a regular car.

Current EVs have Lithium ion batteries. Lithium is extracted in a relatively environmentally friendly way from brine to meet current demand. In the future when demand for batteries ramps up it's more likely that batteries will be Zinc based.

n97 mini

keithclancy wrote: »

That would be all well and good, but Natural Gas is affected by the price of Oil since it has been traditionally pegged to the price of oil.

No it is not. Gas is the same price as it was 20 years ago, thanks to mostly to large amounts of shale gas being extracted. Oil is more than 10 times the price it was 20 years ago.

keithclancy

n97 mini wrote: »

No it is not. Gas is the same price as it was 20 years ago, thanks to mostly to large amounts of shale gas being extracted. Oil is more than 10 times the price it was 20 years ago.

http://energytics.wordpress.com/2012/02/18/brent-price-in-euro-per-barrel-at-an-all-time-high/

High oil prices would have been bad news for almost every continental European consumer of natural gas three years ago, as they all had contracts with the price of natural gas pegged to oil prices. Fortunately, the end market in North-Western Europe is now massively switching to the gas-to-gas pricing of Hub markets (NBP, Zeebrugge, TTF, NCG, Gaspool, PEG). True, these gas prices have also risen in the past year, but not as much as oil prices. With the oil-indexed gas contracts of the past, natural gas would have cost more than 40 euro per MWh by now, just as it did in 2008. At the forward Hub markets, gas consumers can now fix prices below 30 euro per MWh and spot prices haven’t risen much above 25. However, natural gas consumers in countries where access to Hub markets is difficult (Spain, Portugal, Italy, Eastern Europe), have every reason to look worryingly at oil market developments.

and Gazprom disputes can send Gas Prices all over the place:

And the great white knight that is Shale Gas:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204880404577227491587620770.html

Gazprom has said that shale drilling, which requires a process called hydraulic fracturing to break apart underground rock, poses "significant environmental risks, particularly the hazard of surface and underground water contamination with chemicals applied in the process." Gazprom also said services and pipelines in Europe are insufficient to enable the sort of drilling boom that has flooded the U.S. and Canada with inexpensive natural gas.

EU officials have kept a close watch on Russian gas deliveries since a series of energy crises. Most recently, Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe for three weeks amid a price dispute with Ukraine in January 2009.

My point is that Electricity is not guaranteed to stay the same price, more electric cars connected to the grid creates more demand, for every KW/h of renewable you need a KW/h of non renewable.

Especially since Ireland has very little natural fossil resources and large portion of its power comes from Gas Fired Turbines.

kippy

keithclancy wrote: »

http://energytics.wordpress.com/2012/02/18/brent-price-in-euro-per-barrel-at-an-all-time-high/



and Gazprom disputes can send Gas Prices all over the place:

And the great white knight that is Shale Gas:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204880404577227491587620770.html





My point is that Electricity is not guaranteed to stay the same price, more electric cars connected to the grid creates more demand, for every KW/h of renewable you need a KW/h of non renewable.

Especially since Ireland has very little natural fossil resources and large portion of its power comes from Gas Fired Turbines.

Of course electricity is reliant on the pricing of the methods by which it is generated.
That is not rocket science.

The key, is to ensure that renewables make up a large portion of our electricity generation and as with these EV cars, some of the technology is still a bit immature in order to push this process on.
However, electricity will remain cheaper than the corresponding fossil fuel price rises (because of the mix involved).

keithclancy

kippy wrote: »

Of course electricity is reliant on the pricing of the methods by which it is generated.
That is not rocket science.

The key, is to ensure that renewables make up a large portion of our electricity generation and as with these EV cars, some of the technology is still a bit immature in order to push this process on.
However, electricity will remain cheaper than the corresponding fossil fuel price rises (because of the mix involved).

The price of renewable energy is only competitive as long as long as it is subsidised, everyone knows the real cost of Renewable is higher than non renewable.

Where do you think the Government is going to get the money to continue subsidising Wind Farms / Hydro Development ?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0402/1224314225873.html

Subsidy schemes for wind farms and biomass systems that were stalled somewhere between here and Brussels for more than a year have only recently been approved, for example.

No Energy Company in their right (shareholders) mind would build a Wind Farm without subsidies available.

And for every KW/h you need for when the Wind isn't blowing you need a Gas Turbine to back it up.

kippy

keithclancy wrote: »

The price of renewable energy is only competitive as long as long as it is subsidised, everyone knows the real cost of Renewable is higher than non renewable.

Where do you think the Government is going to get the money to continue subsidising Wind Farms / Hydro Development ?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2012/0402/1224314225873.html



No Energy Company in their right (shareholders) mind would build a Wind Farm without subsidies available.

And for every KW/h you need for when the Wind isn't blowing you need a Gas Turbine to back it up.

Did you read my post at all?
Specifically this bit:
"some of the technology is still a bit immature in order to push this process on."
Tidal, wave and energy generated from the sea and its currents is still at a very early stage, the prices of wind and solar energy has been decreasing (subsidies or not) and most, if not all of this energy generation would take a massive leap forward once storage mechanisms for it are devised (such as better batteries or the use of reservoirs to store the energy).
Oil and gas on the other hand are only going in one direction and that is up.

My point, I'd much rather be dependent on electricity, which can be garnered from a huge number of sources (the end user really knows no different) than on diesel/petrol directly.

keithclancy

kippy wrote: »

Did you read my post at all?
Specifically this bit:
"some of the technology is still a bit immature in order to push this process on."
Tidal, wave and energy generated from the sea and its currents is still at a very early stage, the prices of wind and solar energy has been decreasing (subsidies or not) and most, if not all of this energy generation would take a massive leap forward once storage mechanisms for it are devised (such as better batteries or the use of reservoirs to store the energy).
Oil and gas on the other hand are only going in one direction and that is up.

My point, I'd much rather be dependent on electricity, which can be garnered from a huge number of sources (the end user really knows no different) than on diesel/petrol directly.

Renewable has a double cost, whats in your electricity bill and what comes out of your taxes, its more expensive than Gas Fired Turbine or Coal.

To an Energy Company it's cheaper though

kippy

keithclancy wrote: »

Renewable has a double cost, whats in your electricity bill and what comes out of your taxes, its more expensive than Gas Fired Turbine or Coal.

To an Energy Company it's cheaper though

Right now it probably is, I don't deny that, hence the main point of my posts.

Dexter1979

How about generating your own electricity through solar panels and wind turbine? I know this sounds like a "hippy" idea but it's possible. I'm interested in the leaf but can't afford it at the moment. Renault is an option but I would need a large battery lease as I do 20 k km a year.

Sesshoumaru

LIGHTNING wrote: »

Your right its not on a car that costs 25k, it on my mates 10k FIAT 500, you can log onto the FIAT website and it will show your weekly/daily/monthly fuel usage costs.

It tells you how economic you have been what gears you are using and how to drive better. It gives you a rating based on your driving. It also interfaces with your phone via Bluetooth and it can take calls read SMS etc.

The cheapest Fiat 500 on the www.fiat.ie website is €12,895 and the "Blue&Me" feature is not standard on this model, it costs an extra €300. It's also not a telematic service, you plug-in a USB key and the data downloads to the USB key which can be connected to a PC for analysing. Sorry but that's not the same thing! and you haven't mentioned smartphone apps for remotely controlling the climate or uploading routes you plan on your PC etc

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue%26Me

EcoDrive was first presented as a preview at the Frankfurt Motor Show 2007 and then officially unveiled at the 2008 Paris Motor Show. It is a new service component which offers the ability to track driving efficiency. It collects data about CO2 emissions and fuel consumptions by saving them to a USB key, which can then be connected to a PC and analyzed.[6] It is now available for Fiat 500, Fiat Linea, Fiat Grande Punto and Fiat Bravo. Fiat Automobiles assures that in 2009 EcoDrive will be available for the whole car range equipped with Blue&Me.

I actually like this feature of the Fiat 500, which is also a car I considered buying at one stage, I like it! But sorry it's not the same as the car having it's own internet connection.

Sesshoumaru

RoverJames wrote: »

I pass the fecking things every day, it's no diversion to pull into one once a week and fill the tank Seriously, describing getting petrol as a diversion is a gross exageration.



Remote start (just leave the thing in neutral and have the heater settings to your liking) can be added to any car for a few hundred for the best part of the last 10 years, part of an alarm system

Gross exaggeration? There'd be none of that is in this thread

Remote start is similar, but not quite the same. Firstly it's aftermarket and secondly I wouldn't feel happy leaving my car engine running with no one in the car. Do these remote start systems work when your within radio range? or you can remote start from anywhere?

Not against aftermarket equipment, I know one Leaf owner is talking to this company and trying to get a bio ethanol heater.

http://www.webasto.com/competencies-and-technologies/en/html/8112.html

Not losing any range in cold weather would be great! Although the 2013 Leaf is supposed to have some new tricks up its sleeves in that regard anyway.

http://www.autoblog.com/2012/03/20/nissan-leaf-update-will-add-new-heater-25-miles-of-range/

The Leaf's new heater is going to help with range, even if it wasn't designed to beat the government's mileage test, as it were. Perry tells the Detroit newspaper, "You may not see much change on the EPA rating, but in cold-weather conditions you may see 20 to 25 miles of improvements."

Sesshoumaru

BrianD3 wrote: »

I'd consider buying a Leaf for 25k if it was a bit better looking and had a bit longer range. The type of driving I do is predictable and mostly open road (R and N roads) driving. I don't drive much on motorways and when I do I now limit my speed to 100 km/h to save fuel.

My average speed overall is about 45 mph. I get mid 40s mpg from my petrol Laguna and mid-high 60s mpg from a diesel Megane.

If I could get a Leaf to do 150 miles on one charge that would do me fine. If I could get it to do 100 miles it would do but would not be ideal.

Not sure if the 5k discount on the Leaf is a game changer but i do think it makes the Fluence ZE for 21k plus significant battery leasing cost seem like bad value. The Renault Zoe looks like it will be a better car than the Fluence but AFAIK it will still be a battery lease arrangement. Maybe Renault will need to rethink this or at least reduce the costs.

Another year and it might be desirable for some!

Nissan will design the Euro-market Leaf EV to suit European tastes, and could also lower the car’s price, according to Automotive News. Though the same Japanese-built car available in the U.S. went on sale in select areas in Europe last year, Nissan says it will restyle the Leaf for Europe before it begins production at Nissan’s plant in Sunderland, England next February.
“We’ll fine-tune the car for the European customer from a design point of view,” Nissan Europe’s vice president of engineering Colin Lawther told Automotive News.
In addition to the EV’s looks, which European critics have described as awkward and bland, Lawther says driving range will also be improved from the current rating of roughly 100 miles, and power delivery will be refined for less jerky acceleration.


Read more: http://rumors.automobilemag.com/nissan-leaf-to-be-restyled-for-european-market-feature-reduced-price-124921.html#ixzz1scQdzcBD

mfceiling

OP...did I see you charging your leaf at the topaz in templeogue last week?

11reg Laois?

If so...cool

Sesshoumaru

MYOB wrote: »

Well seeing as the subsidy on the car, the free installation of a charging point, etc is done entirely down to alleged "green credentials", it is a rather important point.

EV's have poor green credentials as it is, and they become brutal if one is being bought as a replacement for a functioning ICE car or as a second car to an ICE car.

You'll thank us EV pioneers someday when cheap oil runs out

Sesshoumaru

mfceiling wrote: »

OP...did I see you charging your leaf at the topaz in templeogue last week?

11reg Laois?

If so...cool

It wasn't me, but I do often get people coming over to ask questions and sit in the car when I'm fast charging. I have a black 11-D Leaf, so if you see one, could be me

650Ginge

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

1000 km at 100 km/hr, 10 hours. 1000 km at 120 km/hr, 8.3 hours. Time saved, 1.7 hours. 1000 km at 62 mpg, or 4.6 l/100km = 46 litres, say €73. 1000 km at 48 mpg, or 5.9 l/100km = 56 litres, say €90.

You're paying yourself €17 to drive for 1.7 hours, or €10 an hour, a little more than €8.65 minimum wage.

You don't get paid anything for driving you car, so kinda silly suggesting going faster using more fuel in better financially.

shedweller

650Ginge wrote: »

You don't get paid anything for driving you car, so kinda silly suggesting going faster using more fuel in better financially.

I've had this argument before too. I'm a PAYE worker so i get paid the same whether i do 160kph or 90kph. The difference is by doing 90kph i don't spend an extra week or so wages just to fill my tank.

L1011

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

You'll thank us EV pioneers someday when cheap oil runs out

When cheap oil runs out, we won't be able to afford electricity in this country for such piddling things as private motoring.

650Ginge wrote: »

You don't get paid anything for driving you car, so kinda silly suggesting going faster using more fuel in better financially.

Rather a lot of people do; or value their time similarly.

However, driving speed isn't really the issue; losing 15x the time to fill the car is.

L1011

n97 mini wrote: »

EV's have less parts, no oils, no exhaust treatment system, no engine block.

They have a motor. No more environmentally damaging than the alternator in a regular car.

Current EVs have Lithium ion batteries. Lithium is extracted in a relatively environmentally friendly way from brine to meet current demand. In the future when demand for batteries ramps up it's more likely that batteries will be Zinc based.

EVs are heavier than an ICE car and hence harder to ship, require far more rare earth metals than an ICE car. Its fairly widely known that the environmental damage of building an EV is worse than building an equally sized ICE car.

keithclancy

Good electric cars:


Telsa Model X



Telsa Model S (With a 490km Range)

Only downsides to the Teslas is everything is touchscreen, that would drive me bonkers.

Bad Electric Cars:
Basically everything on Sale now imo, haven't seen one and thought 'I'd buy that'

Sesshoumaru

MYOB wrote: »

EVs are heavier than an ICE car and hence harder to ship, require far more rare earth metals than an ICE car. Its fairly widely known that the environmental damage of building an EV is worse than building an equally sized ICE car.

I started a new thread on environmental issues in reply to this post.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056614578

Sesshoumaru

keithclancy wrote: »

Good electric cars:


Telsa Model X



Telsa Model S (With a 490km Range)

Only downsides to the Teslas is everything is touchscreen, that would drive me bonkers.

Bad Electric Cars:
Basically everything on Sale now imo, haven't seen one and thought 'I'd buy that'

Besides the Tesla range, new EV's on the market are generally mid sized family cars. Those are high performance luxury cars, apples & celery comparison IMO. I'd love to have the money to buy a Tesla Model S though

If there was the likes of a Mark 2 MR2, Lotus Elise or even a 200SX type EV available for €25K I'd nearly be tempted to be honest

Zubeneschamali

shedweller wrote: »

I've had this argument before too. I'm a PAYE worker so i get paid the same whether i do 160kph or 90kph. The difference is by doing 90kph i don't spend an extra week or so wages just to fill my tank.

Right, you just spend an extra week driving slowly from A to B..

Zubeneschamali

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Right, you just spend an extra week driving slowly from A to B..

He wouldn't really, much of the time gained going faster on motorways is often lost as soon as you hit the few set of traffic lights at the next urban area.

Blisterman

I really don't understand why some people here are so passionately anti electric cars.

Nobody's claiming that they're currently a suitable replacement for every ICE car. But at the moment, they're becoming a feasible alternative for certain car owners, and I can't see how this is anything but a good thing.