Leaf price drop - game changer?

Sesshoumaru

Max Power1 wrote: »

My general sentiment (which I intended) was that the current EV technology will be quickly outdated by future developments, at which point the current EVs will be worthless.
But in future, the future EVs could well be practical (once they develop technology to give the future EVs similar range to current ICEs).

I mean, didnt most early M5s have ranges of just around 200 miles? Even to get that in an EV would be a big deal, and make them more useable imo

I guess my reply would be, what part of my Nissan Leaf will be outdated? I would argue we are only taking about the battery primarily. I would then argue that the existing battery has value and plenty of potential for second life uses. Trade-in your existing battery pack and get the new model or use the existing one for some other second life purpose and buy a new battery pack.

keithclancy

beazee wrote: »

How familiar are you with Prius and Leaf technology?
Regen = regenerative braking is not something you can switch off. Regen is a feature of electric motor to give you the feeling of ICE car (one we are all so used to it). Every time you get your foot off the accelerator the car is losing it's momentum. Mostly due to friction on gearbox, engine cylinders and the likes...

If electric motor setup was not tweaked to include this momentum loss due to mechanical friction you'll had that strange feeling the EV car is behaving in different way. 1st stage of regen has been served.

2nd stage is every single time you gently press your brakes. EVs are getting this energy back to charge the battery (mechanical brakes come in effect at ca. 30kmh in Prius 2, not sure on the setup for Leaf). In case of your current car (and mine) all this energy is wasted on heating up brake cylinders/calipers whatever the stuff you have there.

^^ What the hell is this, some sort of Perpetual Motion Machine, I must try this in the Prius, jam on the brakes every so often to recharge the batteries

Not using your brakes is more efficient than regenerative braking, regenerative braking reclaims some of the energy lost not all of it and its certainly not more efficient than not using the brakes.

When traveling on momentum in an Injection Engine ICE Car your not using any Fuel at all. When you use your brakes your losing the momentum and have to use extra fuel to regain that speed.

Its physics man

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bookable in advance? Because rolling up to find two Leaves already plugged in would be a sickener.

Dublin Airport is a work in progress, the final charging points have not been installed yet. Others do let you book in advance:

keithclancy

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

Dublin Airport is a work in progress, the final charging points have not been installed yet. Others do let you book in advance:

How does that work, do they just stick a traffic cone in the space or something ?

I.E. Someone else turns up in an E.V. and pays per hour, what happens if you turn up in that period ?

Solair

I'd consider one if the range were better and there were more fast charge points around.

Even in Cork, I see the handful of kerb-side car charge points are almost always just parked at by someone who is driving a regular car as there seems to be no enforcement of parking rules around those spaces at the chargers.

I think for the moment, hybrids are going to be the solution until battery life improves.

Our Prius gets really savage fuel efficiency on some runs. Like I drove Cork to Sligo and back on a single tank of fuel (€68) and still had enough fuel to drive around while in Sligo for a day or two.

You really notice the difference in fuel consumption in city driving, particularly in Cork (hills). I'd say the Prius cut our fuel bills almost in half vs the Astra it replaced.

The hybrid system really does save a LOT of energy in a hilly place like Cork where you've lots of stops/starts, hills, traffic etc etc.

Also, the ESB would need to make three-phase hook-ups a bit cheaper. It's not that difficult for them to provide 3-phase in most urban areas as the distribution is done as L1,L2,L3+N with each house taking one of the Lives (L) + N. So, all that a 3-phase connection requires is a new cable to your house from the vault in the street / overhead quadruplex (4-wire) line.

If you're out in the countryside and there's only 2 wires running near by, then 3 phase is a lot more complicated and expensive.

Realistically, you'd need rapid charge points in every shopping centre and garage forecourt before they really take off.

Sesshoumaru

keithclancy wrote: »

^^ What the hell is this, some sort of Perpetual Motion Machine, I must try this in the Prius, jam on the brakes every so often to recharge the batteries

Not using your brakes is more efficient than regenerative braking, regenerative braking reclaims some of the energy lost not all of it and its certainly not more efficient than not using the brakes.

When traveling on momentum in an Injection Engine ICE Car your not using any Fuel at all. When you use your brakes your losing the momentum and have to use extra fuel to regain that speed.

Its physics man

I would agree. There are two modes when driving the Leaf and you can switch between them while driving. D and ECO. ECO mode kicks in regen braking a lot more aggressively when you take your foot off the accelerator, D mode not so much. I've always gotten the best range when in D mode and trying to avoid braking as much as possible. Some of the Japanese guys who were getting over 230 kilometers per charge were doing it in D mode.

Sesshoumaru

keithclancy wrote: »

How does that work, do they just stick a traffic cone in the space or something ?

I.E. Someone else turns up in an E.V. and pays per hour, what happens if you turn up in that period ?

Correct The spaces are painted bright green and have lots of signage saying EV only etc. Then they also place a bollard in front

Max Power1

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

I guess my reply would be, what part of my Nissan Leaf will be outdated? I would argue we are only taking about the battery primarily. I would then argue that the existing battery has value and plenty of potential for second life uses. Trade-in your existing battery pack and get the new model or use the existing one for some other second life purpose and buy a new battery pack.

The range for one
Also charging times.

I would expect, within 10 years, to be able to buy an EV, at the same price as a current mid range ICE car, wityh the same functionality.

There was a great post linked (possibly by yourself :P) a couple of pages back showing that great improvements of the ilk that I refer to above were in the pipeline for commercialization within the next decade.

I think the next 10-15 years will have the most forward progress within private motoring since the leap in quality in the 90s

Sesshoumaru

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

I guess my reply would be, what part of my Nissan Leaf will be outdated?............

The beauty of technological development is the man on the street had little idea what will be outdated in 10 years time

shedweller

Solair wrote: »

Our Prius gets really savage fuel efficiency on some runs. Like I drove Cork to Sligo and back on a single tank of fuel (€68) and still had enough fuel to drive around while in Sligo for a day or two.

I generally agree with most of your post. But this has me stumped.
68 euro of petrol is 40 litres yes? Cork to Sligo is 640km return yes?
40/640x100 is 6.25L/100k or is my maths completely wrong?
I genuinely mean no offence but thats not really what i would call savage mileage. It's not bad but most diesel cars would do better than this without even trying. Some, smaller diesels will completely blitz 6.25L/100k and return around 3 to 4L/100k. Thats savage mileage and the savings made by driving an EV compared to that, are small.

And to the poster that said current EV's will be worthless in a few years time. Most cars are already worthless in a few years as it is.

Solair

The only sticking point with electric cars is the battery technology. The drive-train, motors and control systems are all highly developed and have been for decades (just not used for cars).

Electric propulsion is FAR more efficient, and can deliver far higher torque much more efficiently than any internal combustion engine can with far less fuss and taking up far less space without all the complicated mechanical components and plumbing. It can also do it virtually silently.

The main reason that electrical propulsion is preferred in rail systems are:

1) Higher torque = much more rapid acceleration.
2) Lower maintenance cost - much fewer moving parts / no complex fuel systems etc.
3) Greater control - Modern variable speed drives give you pretty much limitless control over the motors without needing complex gearing or anything like that. It's all just chips and electromagnetic fields driving rotors. That's becoming easier and easier all the time due to rapidly improving solid-state electronics.
4) Very quiet.
5) No local polution + possibility of using non CO2 sources of power i.e. renewables (and in countries like France, nuclear [I know that's controversial, but that's the main reason France was so keen on electric powered everything])

All of those plus points apply to a car, once the battery technology is perfected to the point that 1 charge can give you at least as long a drive as a full tank of petrol or diesel.

Max Power1

Solair wrote: »

The only sticking point with electric cars is the battery technology. ...once the battery technology is perfected to the point that 1 charge can give you at least as long a drive as a full tank of petrol or diesel.

This - its the be all and end all.

EVs as we now know them will never be the answer. Evolve, produce better ones, then its possible that they will be the "car of the future"

Solair

Max Power1 wrote: »

This - its the be all and end all.

EVs as we now know them will never be the answer. Evolve, produce better ones, then its possible that they will be the "car of the future"

There will ultimately be some massive breakthrough on this. The high price of oil is already driving the R&D.

It's a bit easier with a train as you can just connect to the handy 25,000 volt overhead wires

no1beemerfan

Look at what happened when horseless carriages came in. They were a novelty until the price came down low enough and enough people were convinced of the benefits of them.

As of now EVs are a novelty, the range is crap and the image isn't there etc.

Give it 20 or 30 years and we'll all be driving the fcuking things!

unkel

“We increased the energy density to 400 wh/kg

That's very impressive. What weight is the leaf battery, Sesshoumaru? 24kWh just doesn't cut it but if you can multiple that a few times, you're in business. 72kWh and a battery weight of about 200kg seems more than acceptable. What's the time frame for having this in production cars?

Oh and I have no idea how much prices of batteries are. I thought you said it was 7.5k hence why I quoted it. My mistake!

keithclancy wrote: »

Its physics man

You took the words right outta my mouth

The law of conservation of energy. Poster might want to google that

Solair

I'd actually think it might be less than that. The battery break through can't be that far away!

The cost of producing EVs once the plants are tooled up would quite likely be significantly less than a traditional car as there is FAR less involved in putting the engine together and probably significantly less R&D involved in the drive systems too.

Electric motors are physically, VERY simple devices.
You'd be using a much less complicated engine management system. No need for complex oxygen / CO2 sensors adjusting fuel mixes, no need for injector systems, no need for all sorts of other complex and often unreliable components.

Then, the drive-train itself is simplified too as electric drives have absolutely enormous torque at almost any speed and can vary it electronically so you don't need the same complex gearing systems that engines need to prevent stalling. You can't stall an electric motor.

kippy

Solair wrote: »

I'd actually think it might be less than that. The battery break through can't be that far away!

The cost of producing EVs once the plants are tooled up would quite likely be significantly less than a traditional car as there is FAR less involved in putting the engine together and probably significantly less R&D involved in the drive systems too.

Electric motors are physically, VERY simple devices.
You'd be using a much less complicated engine management system. No need for complex oxygen / CO2 sensors adjusting fuel mixes, no need for injector systems, no need for all sorts of other complex and often unreliable components.

Then, the drive-train itself is simplified too as electric drives have absolutely enormous torque at almost any speed and can vary it electronically so you don't need the same complex gearing systems that engines need to prevent stalling. You can't stall an electric motor.

Just a question I broached on earlier,
What if anything, is serviceable on these cars? (Obviously tyres, suspension etc) but engine wise there cant be too much?

Solair

Most of the regular engine maintenance tasks would be gone i.e. oil changes, spark plug changes, timing belts, coolant etc.

You'd just need to concentrate on tyres, brakes, power steering system checks etc which would all be relatively the same as an existing car, other than the servo-assistance being different as there's no engine.

The only downside is that if your motor did go (unlikely), you'd more than likely just need a new one.

kippy

LIGHTNING wrote: »

Id advise building a time machine and go back to the oil crysis during the 70`s where they said the same thing and have a good old laugh

We're in different times though.
Burgeoning consumer population, massive developing nations, a bigger than ever fossil fuel demand, a finite resource......

Solair

LIGHTNING wrote: »

Id advise building a time machine and go back to the oil crysis during the 70`s where they said the same thing and have a good old laugh

True, but there's been a considerable amount of leaps in battery technology since the 1970s, mostly driven by the IT sector not the car industry.

The mobile phone industry may yet provide the technology that makes the electric car possible, albeit entirely unintentionally.

When you think about it, it makes sense too. The car industry has absolutely no background or competence in electronics, while the consumer technology / computer / IT sector is electronics and nothing else.

30-40 years ago, there were no small portable electronic devices of any power-hungry variety such as modern laptops / mobiles. So, there were no developments of battery tech.

That situation's completely different now and I would be far more confident that a solution will suddenly appear, probably based around similar tech to something used in a laptop, just a vastly scaled up version.

I don't think the motor industry had the technology or the R&D capabilities in the 1970s to produce an electric car. Other industries now, might have the components they need.

Also, electronic solid state power systems for controlling motors and power management did not exist (or if they did they were insanely expensive) in the 1970s. So, again, that's another massive change in technology.

Old variable speed drive controls occupied huge amounts of space. Where as nowadays, there's a very sophisticated VSD drive in most washing machines and the controls are the size of a bar of soap and is probably produced for about €10 in China.

vs something that would have been the size of a fridge-freezer and cost 40 grand in the 70s.

In terms of electronic drive technologies the difference between 1972 and 2012 are about as stark as the differences between a steam engine and a modern car.

kippy

LIGHTNING wrote: »

Updates to solid state electronics are all very well and good but thats not what we are talking about.

Currently and electric car doesnt do as much as a normal ICE powered car and they are more expensive.

Until it does has the exact same ability as a ICE (and at the same cost) they wont become a viable option for most people. Sure for some people they are useful and work very well but not for your average joe.

In a two car family, I do think there is room for one of these cars.
The average joe is more put off by the price and physical size of the car than the range I suspect - in my case anyway, we could have one of these cars instead of the diesel we already have in all reality.

unkel

kippy wrote: »

In a two car family, I do think there is room for one of these cars.

Good point. We are no longer a 2 car family, but if we were, having one EV would suit us fine from a practical / fuel use point of view as 95% of our trips are relatively local.

Sesshoumaru

LIGHTNING wrote: »

Updates to solid state electronics are all very well and good but thats not what we are talking about.

Currently and electric car doesnt do as much as a normal ICE powered car and they are more expensive.

Until it does has the exact same ability as a ICE (and at the same cost) they wont become a viable option for most people. Sure for some people they are useful and work very well but not for your average joe.

All an ICE has is range per charge of an ICE vehicle. 90% of the time it takes me less time to fill my car than it does someone with an ICE car. I'm not waiting around a petrol station for a free pump or queing to pay a cashier. I have the convenience of filling up at home and paying by direct debit. All I need do is plugin at home.

On cold mornings I'm not waiting for snow or ice to clear from a windscreen or running in getting jugs of water to splash on the windscreen. My car starts heating itself at a scheduled time, using power from the mains. Alternatively I open an App on my smartphone, press a button and my car starts either cooling or heating itself. Either way I'm not wasteing time in the morning clearing windscreens and the car is perfectly warm.

Charging points are not subject to the same planning regulations as petrol stations. Which essentially means I can potentially charge up anywhere we deliver electricity to, which gives me a far more bigger selection of refilling points than an ICE car. In practise what I'm talking about is driving to a shopping centre like Liffey Valley and going to watch a movie, while watching the movie your car is filling up and if you so wish you can open the Nissan app on your smartphone and tell it to start heating itself before you leave the cinema.

EV's already do everything an ICE car can do minus range. Then they also have their own advantages which an ICE car can never match. These are just practical everyday advantages, that's not going into other existing abilities like powering your home or as others have pointed out the much lower servicing requirements.

Sesshoumaru

unkel wrote: »

“We increased the energy density to 400 wh/kg

That's very impressive. What weight is the leaf battery, Sesshoumaru? 24kWh just doesn't cut it but if you can multiple that a few times, you're in business. 72kWh and a battery weight of about 200kg seems more than acceptable. What's the time frame for having this in production cars?

Oh and I have no idea how much prices of batteries are. I thought you said it was 7.5k hence why I quoted it. My mistake!

I found this website

http://nissanleafwiki.com/index.php?title=Battery,_Charging_System

294kg in weight and 140 wh/kg density.

RoverZT

unkel wrote: »

“We increased the energy density to 400 wh/kg

That's very impressive. What weight is the leaf battery, Sesshoumaru? 24kWh just doesn't cut it but if you can multiple that a few times, you're in business. 72kWh and a battery weight of about 200kg seems more than acceptable. What's the time frame for having this in production cars?

Oh and I have no idea how much prices of batteries are. I thought you said it was 7.5k hence why I quoted it. My mistake!




You took the words right outta my mouth

The law of conservation of energy. Poster might want to google that

72kWh would have serious performance, beyond hot hatch performance.

Tesla S only has 40kWh and can do 0-60 in under 7 seconds.

72kWh in a car the size of a Leaf would have Mitsubishi EVO acceleration and 350km or more range.

I can't wait for 2022:D

challengemaster

I think it's fair to say you're extremely biased ...

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

All an ICE has is range per charge of an ICE vehicle. 90% of the time it takes me less time to fill my car than it does someone with an ICE car. I'm not waiting around a petrol station for a free pump or queing to pay a cashier. I have the convenience of filling up at home and paying by direct debit. All I need do is plugin at home.

You're also not comparing like with like here. You've equated that because you can work your EV charging into your schedule, that it takes less time to charge than for a normal ICE car to fill a tank, which is simply untrue. It means you've adapted your schedule, or you've got a schedule that you can fit the EV's limitations into.

A direct comparison is where an EV and ICE start "filling" at the same time. Obviously ICE will win. While your way may be a more realistic daily means of comparison, as people adapt, it can't be extrapolated to the wider population, because you can't predict an entire populations use on your experience and schedule.

You're also ignoring the fact that ICE cars aren't really limited as to when to refill. If I pass 3 petrol stations on my daily trip, I can pop in to any of them along the route, and it's not as big a deal as you'd seem to make out to be, I've never gotten stressed out because I've had to wait 2 minutes to use a pump, nor have I wasted hours of my life on forecourts waiting for cars to move. I can essentially fill when and where I need to along my route, it's suited to me. That's convenience. You have to charge at home, or a designated charging point wherever you find it. That's not convenience, it's a limitation. It's obvious to see which of those is actually putting you out of your way.

Also what happens if something that doesn't fit into your schedule comes up? EV out of juice, you can't fill it in a few mins that'll last 400+ miles. You don't have time to stop every now and again along the way...

Charging points are not subject to the same planning regulations as petrol stations. Which essentially means I can potentially charge up anywhere we deliver electricity to, which gives me a far more bigger selection of refilling points than an ICE car. In practise what I'm talking about is driving to a shopping centre like Liffey Valley and going to watch a movie, while watching the movie your car is filling up and if you so wish you can open the Nissan app on your smartphone and tell it to start heating itself before you leave the cinema.

But it's not quite there yet. Talking about potential is well and good, but it's not what's there now, and people can't run their cars on the potential there'll be a charge point put wherever.

You're also ignoring the fact that since cars have started to be used, there now exists a network of petrol stations all across the country, ones that actually exist at this moment in time, and are capable of providing fuel. That network also won't vanish overnight, so the planning regulations for more petrol stations is a moot point.

BigEejit

unkel wrote: »

Good point. We are no longer a 2 car family, but if we were, having one EV would suit us fine from a practical / fuel use point of view as 95% of our trips are relatively local.

Same. We have been looking at a prius for our second car, my wife drives 99% in our local area. They are also handy for us because we drive into London and for a 10 quid yearly charge we would not have to pay a daily congestion charge.

A EV would do just as well, but not until they are cheap second hand on cargiant or something.

L1011

Seeing as the environmental damage from building any car is massive, let alone that EVs are worse than ICE cars for that; having one as a second car when you could have coped with one is about as un-green as humanly possible...

jetfiremuck

So lets see. 4 adults,cold evening, raining heavily Cork to Limerick at 100kph Lights on, heater fan on medium,rear defroster on, wipers going, radio on. Whats the range now after 3years.....

TheZ

How long before apple bring out the iCar?