Leaf price drop - game changer?

fasttalkerchat

unkel wrote: »

Don't knock my maths until you've verified them

Already tried it... you were right.

Tragedy

€25,000 is:
A low spec A3
A mid range Giulietta
€2-7,000 more than a DS3
A basic DS4
A high spec new shape Focus
€2,000 more than a facelift Mazda 3 diesel
etc etc

At 20k, I think an awful lot of people would be interested, but €25k on a new car is enough for it to be as much about aspiration/style/kudos as it is about MPG imho.

unkel

Tragedy wrote: »

€25k on a new car is enough for it to be as much about aspiration/style/kudos as it is about MPG imho.

Dunno. There's a strong bias in this country towards running costs as opposed to initial outlay. I'd like to see some sums of the fuel savings, but they are substantial, no doubt

I presume Renault are losing money on the Leaf / their own EVs at these prices? I guess how long they can keep them down for will be a major factor in what the uptake will be...

Is there anything like this EV discounting going on in other countries or are they using Ireland as a test?

Anan1

unkel wrote: »

200km one way and petrol at €1.70 would mean 19MPG - that is seriously bad, are you driving like an absolute lunatic and / or way above the legal speed limits? I've never managed that kinda figure in any of my V8 petrols. And I have tried

I'd be going quick enough, and my aerodynamics aren't the best. I'm also going a little beyond Galway city, though, so it's a round trip of 500kms for me. I get 350kms from a tank (50l) around town, maybe 400-420 on a run. My best ever was 450.:o

Zubeneschamali

Tragedy wrote: »

At 20k, I think an awful lot of people would be interested

You mean enough to generate real sales? A measurable market share?

I don't think so. We're on the 3rd generation of Prius, and it's still a niche yuppie toy for eco-conscious beardy types with more money than sense.

The Leaf is way, way less practical than a Prius, and always will be, unless a real revolution in battery tech happens.

Zubeneschamali

unkel wrote: »

Is there anything like this EV discounting going on in other countries or are they using Ireland as a test?

The UK have similar incentives, up to £5000 sterling and roughly no (zero) people are interested.

Sesshoumaru

unkel wrote: »

I wonder who gave you the inspiration for this thread

Game changer gets my vote. As long as the price stays 30k minus 5k subsidy. What's your estimate of the saving on fuel between a 50MPG diesel doing 16k km and an EV doing the same distance charged on night rate electricity? (calculations included would be nice)

Comparing it to a Golf BlueMotion was a good idea, glad I thought of it :P I'll post up the data my car uploaded for all of March 2012. This is going to be a little long! But it should give people an idea of the kind of mileage you can get with a Nissan Leaf and how much it costs. I entered the price for night rate last year, I haven't checked if that has gone up or not since last year? It is also excluding VAT at 13.5%. Either way you are looking at a few euro less than €30 for around 2,500 kilometers.

monkeysnapper

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

You mean enough to generate real sales? A measurable market share?

I don't think so. We're on the 3rd generation of Prius, and it's still a niche yuppie toy for eco-conscious beardy types with more money than sense.

The Leaf is way, way less practical than a Prius, and always will be, unless a real revolution in battery tech happens.

But what about the point that people with less money would want one of these , but untill these come at a reasonable 2nd hand price they cant, these same people would never buy any kind of automobile at a price over say 5k , not everybody cares about the environment , some people want to get out of the high costs of the petrol/diesel. i dont like the point that these are for yuppies ,

beazee

unkel wrote: »

What's your estimate of the saving on fuel between a 50MPG diesel doing 16k km and an EV doing the same distance charged on night rate electricity? (calculations included would be nice)

50 mpg(uk) = 5.65l/100km
16K pa
€1.60/L diesel (www.pumps.ie)

324.4 kWh/2,467.7km = 0.1314 kWh/km (Sesshoumaru post)
16K pa
€0.07/kWh night energy

Diesel: 16,000 km * 5.65 L/100 km * €1.60/L = €1446.40
Leaf: 16,000 km * 0.1314 kWh/km * €0.07/kWh = €147.16

Savings: €1299.24

---

lets see this for 35mpg petrol:

35 mpg(uk) = 8.07l/100km
16K pa
€1.69/L petrol (www.pumps.ie)

Petrol: 16,000 km * 8.07 L/100 km * €1.69/L = €2182.13
Savings: €2034.97

Max Power1

The funny thing is I would prefer to spend 1800-2000 on fossil fuels per annum than to spend 25k on a heap of sh!t that cant go more than 100 miles per charge and makes me look like an eejit driving it (both because of the stupid design and because EVs are currently still only for the prius brigade)

Elessar

I think the general public still has massive range anxiety when it comes to EVs.

I know I do. Even though I only do on average, 100 miles a week. I don't want the possibility of running out of power too far from a charge point or the hassle of worrying about things like that everytime I get into the car. I'm probably exaggerating and in real life it wouldn't actually be as bad, but the fear is still there. Battery tech needs a massive jump and we need batteries that will last 300+ miles on a single charge. Or range extending ICEs that will power the batteries.

I think aswell, for mainstream takeup, more manufacturers will need to start offering the big sellers in electric form. The Golf, the avensis, the passat, the focus, the 3 series etc.

Once that happens, and the price isn't insanely higher than ICE models, EVs will start to take off.

Personally, as a 26 year old guy, the Leaf isn't really the type of car I'd buy. Lookswise it doesn't appeal to me. I bought a brand new Golf Edition-R this year, because, among many other things, I love the look of it. Popular mainstream models need to be offered in EV form for things to really take off IMO.

Zubeneschamali

monkeysnapper wrote: »

But what about the point that people with less money would want one of these , but untill these come at a reasonable 2nd hand price they cant

True enough, so now the Leaf starts at starting at €25K, it should be worth 5K in about 10 years. What'll the range be on half-knackered 10-year-old batteries? How much will replacements cost?

Anyhow, if EVs ever become mass-market, the Government will have to tax the crap out of them to make up for lost petrol excise and VAT. The current regime of incentives and zero tax on running costs can only last while EVs are niche toys.

beazee

@MaxPower1

You looking at it wrong. Compare new car to new car.
Cumulatives of buying new and consumption goes as follows:

new -> 1 year -> 2nd -> 3rd -> 4th -> 5th
Petrol: 20K -> 22K -> 24K -> 26K -> 28K -> 30K
Leaf: 25K -> 25.2K -> 25.4K -> 25.6K -> 25.8K -> 26K

Leaf - 4k saved at the end of 5y and another 2K every each year after.

Joe 90

TBH, I reckon the early adapters will be those with the Prius mindset who can live with the limited range. I would reckon that most people who can live with the limited range and who would buy them on the running cost angle will wait to see just how cheap they are to run over life of a battery and of course how they will be treated tax wise if they do sell in any quantity.

No matter how good batteries are their life will be finite and the government is not going to stand for any significant loss in taxation on fuel or road tax.

Zubeneschamali

Anan1 wrote: »

how many people actually regularly need the range of an ICE, as opposed to just not wanting to give up the comfort blanket?

Lots of people with cars don't need a car at all. If you do the sums and budget for all the real costs of car ownership, lots of low-mileage folks would save money by taking taxis everywhere. But who wants to? Having a car is freedom. You can go anywhere at the drop of a hat without any planning.

Leonard Hofstadter

Exactly, you can be sure that road pricing will kick in (especially as I heard yesterday that they are considering introducing speed limiters to cars, so this would go hand in hand:mad:), and car tax will go massively up if/when EVs or alternative fuel vehicles become popular. They'll have to get their money back somehow I'm afraid!

Sesshoumaru

Elessar wrote: »

I think the general public still has massive range anxiety when it comes to EVs.

I know I do. Even though I only do on average, 100 miles a week. I don't want the possibility of running out of power too far from a charge point or the hassle of worrying about things like that everytime I get into the car. I'm probably exaggerating and in real life it wouldn't actually be as bad, but the fear is still there. Battery tech needs a massive jump and we need batteries that will last 300+ miles on a single charge. Or range extending ICEs that will power the batteries.

I think aswell, for mainstream takeup, more manufacturers will need to start offering the big sellers in electric form. The Golf, the avensis, the passat, the focus, the 3 series etc.

Once that happens, and the price isn't insanely higher than ICE models, EVs will start to take off.

Personally, as a 26 year old guy, the Leaf isn't really the type of car I'd buy. Lookswise it doesn't appeal to me. I bought a brand new Golf Edition-R this year, because, among many other things, I love the look of it. Popular mainstream models need to be offered in EV form for things to really take off IMO.

The new Golf has been designed from the ground up with traditional, hybrid and EV powertrain in mind.

http://wot.motortrend.com/not-a-golf-cart-volkswagen-e-golf-test-fleet-set-to-launch-in-u-s-181869.html

Expect it on sale here in Europe early next year. The new Ford Focus electric is already on sale in the US now and should reach us some time over the next year. Renault have the Fluence ZE for sale today as well. Lets not forget the Nissan Leaf is from a mainstream manufacturer as well. Mainstream is already here.

After 1 week of owning and driving a Nissan Leaf you will not have range anxiety anymore. My wife and I have covered over 24,000 kilometers since April 21st 2011. We are comfortable with the range of the car and for us living in the Dublin area, there are a lot of fast charging points in operation. I covered a lot of these types of issues previously, take a look at this older post

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

My family and I have a Nissan Leaf. My wife and I have two young daughters and we got rid of both our old ICE cars in order to get a Nissan Leaf. We've had it over 3 months now and have done more than 7500km in it. It is our only car and it meets my families needs very well.

*SNIP*

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=73691736&postcount=21

Mr Benevolent

Price on the Nissan website is still €30,595.

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Lots of people with cars don't need a car at all. If you do the sums and budget for all the real costs of car ownership, lots of low-mileage folks would save money by taking taxis everywhere. But who wants to? Having a car is freedom. You can go anywhere at the drop of a hat without any planning.

Reading this board daily you would swear *most* people think a car in Ireland is an absolute necessity

Speaking of freedom. I spend less time having to charge my car, as I only need to plug it in at home, no queuing on a weekly basis in a petrol station to get fuel, no queuing to pay the cashier etc. When I want to take the family out for a spin somewhere at the weekend I don't have to worry about the fuel costs of doing so. I have more freedom now with an EV than I did with my old ICE car.

Sesshoumaru

Confab wrote: »

Price on the Nissan website is still €30,595.

Max Power1

beazee wrote: »

@MaxPower1

You looking at it wrong. Compare new car to new car.
Cumulatives of buying new and consumption goes as follows:

new -> 1 year -> 2nd -> 3rd -> 4th -> 5th
Petrol: 20K -> 22K -> 24K -> 26K -> 28K -> 30K
Leaf: 25K -> 25.2K -> 25.4K -> 25.6K -> 25.8K -> 26K

Leaf - 4k saved at the end of 5y and another 2K every each year after.

So only 4k saved after 5 years? And I have to look like a numpty driving a fridge? No thanks

Mr Benevolent

Pricing is inconsistent on the website though. Anyway, I want one but still can't afford it. What really impresses me is that it costs less for you to run the car than Nissan quotes (€0.092/km vs €0.01/km) - an improvement of 8%.

I'll buy one when the new price drops below 18-20k. I'll never buy one that leases the battery though - it damages any savings made over an ICE.

opinion guy

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

Reading this board daily you would swear *most* people think a car in Ireland is an absolute necessity

Unless you live in a town or city it pretty much is a necessity

25k for a car that only goes 175km on a full fuel and takes me a half hour to refuel to only 80% and I have to find a special place to charge it ? You're having a laugh.

Until EV is better than fossil fuel it needs to priced WAAAAYYYYY more aggressively.

Suppose you were driving Dundalk to Galway on the Motorway. Assume 120kph. That means in 90mins you've spent your battery and have to spend the next 30mins + charging. > 25% of travel time spent charging. Ridiculous

Zubeneschamali

Confab wrote: »

I'll never buy one that leases the battery though - it damages any savings made over an ICE.

Think about that - why does leasing the battery look so expensive?

There's only one real answer: Renault know what a big chunk of the cost of the car is batteries, and how long they'll last.

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Think about that - why does leasing the battery look so expensive?

There's only one real answer: Renault know what a big chunk of the cost of the car is batteries, and how long they'll last.

I've posted this before, but a Nissan Leaf in Japan has already reached 250,000 kilometers by averaging 6 fast charges per day. The battery and car are still running fine.

Zubeneschamali

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

I've posted this before, but a Nissan Leaf in Japan has already reached 250,000 kilometers by averaging 6 fast charges per day. The battery and car are still running fine.

Why do the lease terms on a Fluence look so dear, then?

Presumably Renault know more about the likely costs than the average customer...

Mr Benevolent

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Think about that - why does leasing the battery look so expensive?

There's only one real answer: Renault know what a big chunk of the cost of the car is batteries, and how long they'll last.

I know it's a consideration, but this is Ireland, we like to cut current rather than long term costs.

beazee

Max Power1 wrote: »

So only 4k saved after 5 years? And I have to look like a numpty driving a fridge? No thanks

Only 14K saved after 10 years?
At an unreal assumption €1.69 is the worst you end up paying for petrol.

No point trying to convince anyone who's comfortable in his below €10K worth car to buy a new one, electric powered. Different story when one is already on the market looking to buy a brand new car.

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why do the lease terms on a Fluence look so dear, then?

Presumably Renault know more about the likely costs than the average customer...

I already quoted jackbauer (a boards member) who has built his on own BMW EV. He was quoted 7,500 for a 24 kw/h battery pack delivered. Please look back to page 1 of this thread and have a read.

vibe666

unkel wrote: »

200km one way and petrol at €1.70 would mean 19MPG - that is seriously bad, are you driving like an absolute lunatic and / or way above the legal speed limits? I've never managed that kinda figure in any of my V8 petrols. And I have tried

that would be about average for my pajero.

i'm actually starting to wonder if a 4x4 EV conversion would be doable whilst still retaining the 4WD. could be an interesting project.

a 2.8L diesel engine and 90L fuel tank would be pretty heavy and once removed would probably give me plenty of room for batteries to *possibly* counteract (or at least offset) the extra power needed to push a larger vehicle around.

there was a thing on channel 4 a while back about the 'home of the future' and part of it was talking about EV conversions as the family they were using for the trial actually owned an independent service centre in the UK, so they were finding ways of bringing that into the EV world too and look at possibly having them change from doing MOT work to doing electric conversions on existing vehicles.