Leaf price drop - game changer?

Zubeneschamali

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

I already quoted jackbauer (a boards member) who has built his on own BMW EV. He was quoted 7,500 for a 24 kw/h battery pack delivered. Please look back to page 1 of this thread and have a read.

Why do the Fluence terms look so dear?

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Why do the Fluence terms look so dear?

I'm not going to defend Renaults business plan. I personally think they are wrong and Nissan have it right.

Zubeneschamali

vibe666 wrote: »

a 2.8L diesel engine and 90L fuel tank would be pretty heavy

Not as heavy as suitably powerful electric motor and batteries.

A Fluence EV weighs 1600 kg, that's 400 Kg or 33% more than a regular Fluence.

Zubeneschamali

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

I'm not going to defend Renaults business plan. I personally think they are wrong and Nissan have it right.

Renault own Nissan, the only difference is whose money is at risk on the batteries.

I think they both have it right: Renault are taking the risk on the Fluence batteries, so they price the lease accordingly. You are taking the risk on the Leaf's batteries, so it's not Nissan's problem.

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Renault own Nissan, the only difference is whose money is at risk on the batteries.

I think they both have it right: Renault are taking the risk on the Fluence batteries, so they price the lease accordingly. You are taking the risk on the Leaf's batteries, so it's not Nissan's problem.

Can you go into a little more detail on what you perceive to be the risks?

Zubeneschamali

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

Can you go into a little more detail on what you perceive to be the risks?

I don't know, but the money-men behind Renault-Nissan sure do.

vibe666

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Not as heavy as suitably powerful electric motor and batteries.

A Fluence EV weighs 1600 kg, that's 400 Kg or 33% more than a regular Fluence.

hmm, shame, but i wouldn't rule it out altogether.

i just wonder how worth it it could be to do the conversion, even on a normal car?

the other thing is, how long will it be before the government realise they could be missing out on a lot of revenue from tax on electric 'fuel' for cars?

Zubeneschamali

To elaborate, Renault's battery costs about €1000 a year if you do only 10,000 km a year. Nissan give you the battery for only 5K more than the Renault.

That says that (ignoring interest for a ball-park figure), Renault think the batteries will require complete replacement, on average, every 5 years.

Now maybe they are mad or crooked, but I'm inclined to think they know more about it than I do.

Sesshoumaru

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I don't know, but the money-men behind Renault-Nissan sure do.

I think you're clutching for straws here. I've already shown an entire 24kw/h battery pack (that's what a Leaf has) can be bought by an individual for €7,500. EV's use a traction battery pack, which works differently to regular batteries. After 5 to 10 years when my packs capacity is reduced to 80 / 90 % it will still be fully functional at that level. As it is a traction battery pack it is more likely I will only have to replace a couple of the 48 cells in the battery pack in order to restore capacity.

That is not even considering second life uses like running my home on night rate electricity during the day from the pack. The maximum output from battery pack is 90kw, running your home would be a doddle for the pack. That is something you can't do if you are leasing.

http://www.engadget.com/2011/12/01/nissan-demonstrates-leaf-powered-smart-house-we-go-hands-on/

Back in August, Nissan shared its vision of making its Leaf EV a secondary power source for houses, be it for emergency power outage or for powering lodges in the countryside. Here at the Tokyo Motor Show, we got to see a Smart House that demonstrates just that. To supply the electricity from the Leaf, Nissan uses a power control system box that can supply up to 6kW of power -- plenty of juice for this structure, which consumes about 1 to 2kW for its lights, fan, TV, clock, mini fridge and air conditioner. As for battery life, a Leaf can keep a typical Japanese household powered for about two days, and customers can pick up this power control system in around end of March next year (the retail version will be about half the size of the one pictured). Nissan also said potentially the Smart House can supply excess electricity back to the grid, though this isn't yet possible in Japan due to the lack of such service, which is understandable given the natural disasters earlier this year.

unkel

Sesshoumaru wrote: »

I think you're clutching for straws here. I've already shown an entire 24kw/h battery pack (that's what a Leaf has) can be bought by an individual for €7,500.

I don't think he is. The €80 per month Renault is charging completely annihilates the fuel saving of electric over diesel. If batteries were really lasting an average of 15 years and then cost 7.5k to replace, Renault would charge about 50-60 (including insurance, interest, overheads etc.)

Or look at it from another point - any 5 or 6 year old EV with a broken battery is an economic write-off. Economic write offs of ICE vehicles of that age because of failure is pretty much unheard off

A big worry, the long term on the batteries

Buy new and sell it while the battery is still good or buy with a leased battery = good

Buy second hand = not so good in terms of risks...

Max Power1

beazee wrote: »

Only 14K saved after 10 years?
At an unreal assumption €1.69 is the worst you end up paying for petrol.

No point trying to convince anyone who's comfortable in his below €10K worth car to buy a new one, electric powered. Different story when one is already on the market looking to buy a brand new car.

After 10 years I hope that a better solution has been found.

An EV with a range of c100 miles is a stopgap. Something more sustainable like hydrogen is a must. Then, in 10-15 years, with fossil fuels @ 5€/litre or higher, we will be forced to develop cheap mass produced vehicles with the same range as existing ICEs

unkel

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The UK have similar incentives, up to £5000 sterling and roughly no (zero) people are interested.

I know many countries have tax-payer funded subsidies, but Nissan here have chopped €5k off the price themselves too. I was wondering has Nissan used a similar strategy in other countries? Surely they make a loss on every Leaf sold at €25k?

I assume the massive discount is meant too get people to start buying the damn things

Zubeneschamali

unkel wrote: »

Surely they make a loss on every Leaf sold at €25k?

It's a unique electric-only model: I'd say they'd lose money at €50K, unless they can sell in numbers. Say 30,000 a year in the UK, Mini numbers.

Last year they sold 600 in the UK.

unkel

opinion guy wrote: »

Suppose you were driving Dundalk to Galway on the Motorway. Assume 120kph. That means in 90mins you've spent your batter

Oh no, it's a lot worse than that. At 120km/h I would say the car uses roughly (for simplicity reasons) about half of its power (same would apply to an average ICE vehicle). The engine power is 80kW and the battery capacity is 24kWh

This means a fully charged Leaf will only lasts a bit over 30mins at 120km/h. Not 90mins

A 50MPG diesel with the same power and a 65l tank would last 10 hours at 120km/h

An EV as is, is only suitable as a city car in reality...

Bandara

unkel wrote: »

opinion guy wrote: »

Suppose you were driving Dundalk to Galway on the Motorway. Assume 120kph. That means in 90mins you've spent your batter

Oh no, it's a lot worse than that. At 120km/h I would say the car uses roughly (for simplicity reasons) about half of its power (same would apply to an average ICE vehicle). The engine power is 80kW and the battery capacity is 24kWh

This means a fully charged Leaf will only lasts a bit over 30mins at 120km/h. Not 90mins

A 50MPG diesel with the same power and a 65l tank would last 10 hours at 120km/h

An EV as is, is only suitable as a city car in reality...

Is that correct ?

A leaf going to Galway at 120kmph on the motorway (a 2 hours drive from Dublin) which is 205km away would have to be fully charged 3 times ??????????

Seriously ?

That can't be right ???

unkel

Hammertime wrote: »

Is that correct ?

A leaf going to Galway at 120kmph on the motorway (a 2 hours drive from Dublin) which is 205km away would have to be fully charged 3 times ??????????

Seriously ?

That can't be right ???

Well it is based on my assumption that the Leaf uses half of its power at 120km/h. Unless someone can prove I am completely wrong here, we'll go with that assumption

Perhaps at 90km/h it would only use a quarter of engine power, meaning the car could go for 72 minutes (it is 36 minutes at 120km/h - I rounded it down for dramatic effect :pac:)

So if you're willing to drive real slow, you can still go Dublin to Galway with only one stop in the middle...

Now in case anyone thinks I am knocking EVs - not so. I'd say they would be exceptionally well suited as taxis in Dublin provided there are fast chargers at major taxi ranks and provided the battery is under warranty / leased

Zubeneschamali

Hammertime wrote: »

That can't be right ???

Here's a quote from a review where the tester maxxed a Leaf at 140 (a speed I cruise at every day):

At the start of my right-lane blast the batteries were good for 160km or so, but after just two minutes and little more than 4km of progress, the range has more than halved to around 70km. That doesn’t mean I’ve squandered more than half the stored charge in a few miles – the range meter is a prediction, after all. “Keep this speed up and you’ll be done in 70km,” the dashboard is telling me.

beazee

Max Power1 wrote: »

An EV with a range of c100 miles is a stopgap.

Might be for you but seems reasonably suited for my lifestyle.
Waterford - Dublin Airport: 160km one leg
Waterford - Cork Airport: 110km one leg
Waterford - Shannon: 160km one leg
Such journey might happen once every two-four months and is completely doable in Leaf.

Went to Galway for Christmas, 230km one leg, might stop in Limerick to top-up, had a coffee and jam doughnut.

Seriously at 12K km pa I cannot see how could 100m electric range limit me.
If I had the money I would have some EV sitting in my driveway.

And as for 30 min hassle to charge your battery up - went to Dublin airport to collect a friend last week. On our way back we stopped at Applegreen Rathcoole, fuel-up, coffee and snack at Burger King, toilet... 42 mins total. What's the problem then?

Something more sustainable like hydrogen is a must. Then, in 10-15 years, with fossil fuels @ 5€/litre or higher, we will be forced to develop cheap mass produced vehicles with the same range as existing ICEs

Dare to explain how is hydrogen sustainable? Is this just an idea you have or a subject thoroughly investigated?

Leaf - concept EV car available for public is priced at €25K (incl. grant)
Honda FCX Clarity - concept hydrogen car, 20 available worldwide - est. cost to build $1 milion

unkel

beazee wrote: »

Might be for you but seems reasonably suited for my lifestyle.
Waterford - Dublin Airport: 160km one leg
Waterford - Cork Airport: 110km one leg
Waterford - Shannon: 160km one leg

See my example. Even if you drive extremely slowly on an empty motorway, you're unlikely to get a lot more than 100km out of one charge. 160km would be impossible...

Zubeneschamali

beazee wrote: »

Leaf - concept EV car available for public is priced at €25K (incl. grant)

It's not a concept car. Nissan probably wish it was by now, but no, they really productified and type approved it, and it needs to sell in real numbers.

Max Power1

beazee wrote: »

Might be for you but seems reasonably suited for my lifestyle.
Waterford - Dublin Airport: 160km one leg
Waterford - Cork Airport: 110km one leg
Waterford - Shannon: 160km one leg
Such journey might happen once every two-four months and is completely doable in Leaf.

Went to Galway for Christmas, 230km one leg, might stop in Limerick to top-up, had a coffee and jam doughnut.

Seriously at 12K km pa I cannot see how could 100m electric range limit me.
If I had the money I would have some EV sitting in my driveway.

Its a stopgap because it is a step backwards from the current state of affairs. When we have cars capable of 1000km range, it is a step backwards to limit oneself to 160km (at best). Yes - it might suit you, but for every "you" there are 3 people that dont live in dublin.

beazee wrote: »

And as for 30 min hassle to charge your battery up - went to Dublin airport to collect a friend last week. On our way back we stopped at Applegreen Rathcoole, fuel-up, coffee and snack at Burger King, toilet... 42 mins total. What's the problem then?

Maybe I want to drive non stop like I do now

beazee wrote: »

Dare to explain how is hydrogen sustainable? Is this just an idea you have or a subject thoroughly investigated?

Leaf - concept EV car available for public is priced at €25K (incl. grant)
Honda FCX Clarity - concept hydrogen car, 20 available worldwide - est. cost to build $1 milion

Its not sustainable now. Early ICEs were too expensive to build too. Then the concepts/technology evolved to allow cheaper mass production.
It doesnt have to be hydrogen. Perhaps better batteries will be developed for instance (however I really dont see battery power as the source of the future. I mean, batteries are recharged by electricity - which is generated mostly from, you guessed it, non renewable energy!)

Max Power1

Also - dont get me wrong, Id love to make the amount of savings possible by switching away from my current 45mpg diesel, but I really dont see EVs (at least in their current guise) as the transport of the future.

They are the Betamax of today. In 5 years the EV of today will be so far outdated by the technology available then. And my 25-30k will be worth nothing. Whereas if I spent 30k on an BMW 1series it would still have a substantial resale value.

PyeContinental

I have looked at some of the videos on evbmw.com and I'm very impressed.

Lighter, smaller batteries which could hold a bigger charge and don't deteriorate, combined with quicker charging times and more efficient alternative methods (solar, wind, hydro, wave etc) of generating energy would be the game changer I think.

It would be brilliant if the technologies for generating energy and storing energy could improve in a similar way as CPUs do according to Moore's law.

Imagine if in ten year's time we could be saying something like "and to think, the amount of energy stored in this little bit of plastic, no bigger than my fingernail, is more than ten car batteries could store only ten years ago".

I wonder if there will be a new discovery in the field of physics which will allow us to build something more advanced than an alternator for generating electricity.

It would give me great satisfaction to think that I could build a windmill or a water wheel attached to an alternator and use the energy generated from that to charge an electric vehicle enough for a few short journeys each week.

Imagine if you lived in a sunnier country. Could you generate all your electric vehicle's energy from a few large solar panels on the roof of your house? Even in Ireland, there is free energy there. If your car is parked outside just sitting there, why not have it connected to a solar panel? Even if you can't get all your energy that way, the bit you do get for free is very satisfying! Consider how advantageous this would be in an energy crisis.

I wonder why the roof and as much of the surface area as possible on the electric cars are not made from solar panels?

beazee

unkel wrote: »

See my example. Even if you drive extremely slowly on an empty motorway, you're unlikely to get a lot more than 100km out of one charge. 160km would be impossible...

Unkel, were you ever driving Leaf? Were you ever taken for a ride?
I see you having a great time throwing your figures up on boards waiting for Seesshoumaru to correct them.

See post #38 to see regen energy is 1/4 of total consumed.

220km from full to null in iMiEV:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zqSLNX3WlHY

Zubeneschamali

beazee wrote: »

Waterford - Dublin Airport: 160km one leg

Only if you can roll to a halt at a vacant charger, that's the extreme quoted limit (even driving all the way there like a nun in a Micra...).

Say you're flying out to London, leaving the car at the airport, returning 2 days later. How do you arrange to have the car fully charged for the return trip?

unkel

Ha! Found this on a Nissan Leaf owners forum. 50 miles (80km) is mentioned as the range of a Leaf at 75MPH (120km/h)

My guess was 36 minutes at 120km/h equals 72km. Not bad, what?

unkel

beazee wrote: »

Unkel, were you ever driving Leaf? Were you ever taken for a ride?
I see you having a great time throwing your figures up on boards waiting for Seesshoumaru to correct them.

See post #38 to see regen energy is 1/4 of total consumed.

No regen on the motorway, love

beazee

Max Power1 wrote: »

Yes - it might suit you, but for every "you" there are 3 people that dont live in dublin.

Do I live in Dublin? Moved out in 2008, can't see the point

Diesel is not for everyone (>20K km mileage pa)
Petrol is not for everyone (petrol cost)
Calor gas conversions are not for everyone (infrastructure + boot space)
Electric is not for everyone (range)

Why is then everyone here to bash EVs I wonder

Zubeneschamali

Looking at post #38, I don't see a single day with over 47 km listed. I'd have more than that done before starting work, every day, at speeds which would have totally flattened the battery.

Zubeneschamali

beazee wrote: »

Why is then everyone here to bash EVs I wonder

I'm an electrical engineer by training. I'd love a practical EV.

They just haven't been invented yet.